 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Adrian Knox Stakes
DUAIS found the line with purpose at Warwick Farm when unleashing an excellent turn of acceleration to win. Hugh Bowman took the reigns on that occasion and is happy to stick with her today. A decent amount of speed is likely through the initial stages which shall only enhance her chance. A clear run in the stretch and she is very hard to beat.
FLEXIBLE carry’s the Godolphin blue with Tommy Berry in the saddle, replacing Rachel King. Her win on the Kensington track in early February was dominant with her following two outings credible under the circumstances. She has a great turn of foot and receives the run of the race from gate 6 which grants her every opportunity to win.
CHEQUERBOARD in a very open contest receives top selection following her victory in the Listed Tasmanian Oaks at Launceston back in February. This filly is owned by Coolmore and has significantly improved since she has been tested over longer distances. A good barrier, fantastic jockey and race fitness on her side makes her a viable proposition.
SALTO ANGEL is the proven class in the field after finishing second in the G1 VRC Oaks at Flemington back in November. Her recent efforts at Ballarat and Bendigo have been honest and full of merit. She will drop back in trip from 2,200m to the 2,000m which is perfect and she is the clear measuring stick in this race. The wide draw and big weight are the two negatives but she is all class and is right in the mix.
DARLING DIAMOND is ticking over perfectly heading into the toughest race of her short career and can make her presence felt. She will be up on speed, making her own luck and has renowned fighting qualities in a finish. The 2,000m is the big question mark and realistically implies she cannot win but with Rachel King aboard they will both fight for a very long way.
SELECTIONS: 5. DUAIS, 3. FLEXIBLE, 2. CHEQUERBOARD, 1. SALTO ANGEL & 11. DARLING DIAMOND
S1-2 Chairman's Quality
SACRAMENTO is a model of consistency and yet to miss a top three finish this campaign. Sam Clipperton knows him better than anyone and he is a winner already over 2,800m. He will race handy to the speed making his own luck and fight all the way to the line. He is incredibly difficult to oppose and is likely to start the favourite.
HUSH WRITER is a seasoned stayer set for this race with former Hong Kong Jockey Tim Clark jumping back aboard. He is undefeated over the same course and distance and is another to race on speed. He over cooked himself recently in the G3 N E Manion Cup which caused issues but can atone if he gets his own way.
COLLIDE finished the third behind the second SACRAMENTO in the Listed Randwick City Stakes before keenly over racing in the N E Manion Cup at Rosehill. He is a former British galloper who won six races before his arrival and is still settling into Australian life. Trained by Kris Lees he is the likely improver and I would expect him to be in the finish.
SELINO is an overseas import that arrived in Australia last year. He is now in his second Australian campaign for the Chris Waller stable and is slowly improving. Fifth up in the N E Manion Cup was his best effort to date and a similar or better run today is expected. He is an out and out stayer that is getting close to another win.
SIR CHARLES ROAD is a veteran these days who is more than capable of being competitive. A fine runner up finish in the recent G1 Auckland Cup see’s the 7YO return to Australia once again. He is no stranger to victory over the same course and distance having won this race in 2018 and should not be dismissed lightly.
SELECTIONS: 6. SACRAMENTO, 5. HUSH WRITER, 9. COLLIDE, 11. SELINO & 3. SIR CHARLES ROAD
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 6. SACRAMENTO
Selections – 5. HUSH WRITER, 9. COLLIDE, 11. SELINO & 3. SIR CHARLES ROAD
S1-3:
Banker – 1. ANAMOE
Selections – 3. LIGHTSABER, 8. FOUR MOVES AHEAD, 4. TIGER OF MALAY & 5. DAILY BUGLE
S1-3 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes
ANAMOE was outstanding in the G1 Golden Slipper from a wide barrier and had the perfect profile stepping to 1,400m. He is a hard finishing son of STREET BOSS that is a genuine star on the rise and from a kinder draw is the standout selection. James McDonald steps in to take the wheel and this can only add confidence to an already likely winner.
LIGHTSABER makes the trip from Melbourne following a sensational front running display in the G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes at Flemington. He has drawn perfectly to lead and dictate the tempo and receive the comfort zone he adores. His greatest concern is an opposing turn of foot, however, the leaders have been recently difficult to overhaul.
FOUR MOVES AHEAD suffered her first defeat in the G1 Golden Slipper with her final 600m suggesting she was spent. The rise to 1,400m therefore creates some concerns but a smaller field is in her favour. Plenty was happening early upfront in the Golden Slipper but the quieter time expected today allows her some leeway.
TIGER OF MALAY has drawn awkwardly wider out and shall need luck through the first 400m with pressing on a potential option. He is third up following a very encouraging run in the G3 Pago Pago Stakes and his full ability is yet to be disclosed.
DAILEY BUGLE crosses the border from Melbourne for his Sydney debut following a victory in a 2YO set weight contest over 1,500m. He has drawn to receive the run of the race and could add value but his class and rating are questions that remain unanswered.
SELECTIONS: 1. ANAMOE, 3. LIGHTSABER, 8. FOUR MOVES AHEAD, 4. TIGER OF MALAY & 5. DAILY BUGLE
S1-4 Australian Derby
MONTEFILIA is already a dual G1 winning filly with a third in the G1 VRC Oaks in November, confirming distance will not be an issue. The Australian Derby has been her goal since returning to racing in February with two efforts to date suggest she is right on track. She has drawn well, handles all conditions and is in receipt of a 5lbs pull in weight as she takes on the boys. She is an outstanding progressive young race horse that is likely to teach all the boys a lesson.
SKY LAB was edged out by a slender margin in the G1 Rosehill Guineas following a wide draw but retains the services of James McDonald. The step up to 2,400m is uncharted water, however he is a no fuss animal that settles back during the run. He finished in front of MONTEFILIA in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and could well do the same if he copes with the up in the distance.
LION’S ROAR is also untried at the 2,400m but is a high calibre 3YO that cannot be discounted. The wide barrier draw won’t make it easy to win but he is very much at home on the Randwick Racecourse. He was held up looking for runs in the G1 Rosehill Guineas and never got a crack until the race was all but over, so he is a contender with clear galloping room.
ROCKET SPADE is trained by the powerful Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott combination and is a fascinating inclusion in this year’s Australian Derby. The G1 New Zealand Derby winner arrives in impeccable form having won four of his last five and is renowned for a devastating turn of foot. The Kiwi horses generally stand up when they are thrown in the deep end and you would be brave to leave him out.
YOUNG WERTHER finished third in the G1 Victoria Derby in October last year and is reaching his peak at the right time. He is the winner of only one race so far but has displayed excellent staying potential. He will need luck in running with a big field to work through but the 2,400m is ideal. He is a winning chance with luck and should be some value.
SELECTIONS: 16. MONTEFILIA, 3. SKY LAB, 1. LION’S ROAR, 2. ROCKET SPADE & 7. YOUNG WERTHER
S1-5 T J Smith Stakes
MASKED CRUSADER steps into the biggest race of his career at the top of his game. He has always been touted as an emerging super star and his opportunity to prove that theory has now arrived. His performance in the G1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley was a career high and he is still in an upward spiral. The track, distance and conditions are all to his liking and he represents a fantastic betting prospect.
NATURE STRIP is chasing back to back wins in this event and a sixth G1 victory in the process. The current Australian “Horse Of The Year” does not get beat very often and he is almost impossible to oppose completely. If you are looking for a negative against the champ he has missed a place on three occasions over 1,200m at Randwick from only the four attempts.
EDUARDO is an out and out speed machine who has returned this campaign with two brilliant wins over 1,000m and 1,100m. With only the one victory at 1,200m opinions suggesting he is vulnerable over the slightly longer trip shall be relevant. That could well be the case, however his form is impeccable and he is racing at a career best level.
BIVOUAC has missed the placing on two occasions since his return in February but is renowned for his exceptional ability when on song. He is the equal top rated galloper for that very reason and is going to receive a strong pace which he cherishes. The good barrier and booking of Hugh Bowman are big ticks alongside his name and if he fully rocks up, he probably wins.
LIBERTINI again receives the services of Tommy Berry and she has drawn ideally in barrier 1. Her record of four wins from six starts at this track and distance is an outstanding statistic along with her second up record. She has yet to win at the highest level races but it is hard to be critical of her overall form.
SELECTIONS: 5. MASKED CRUSADER, 2. NATURE STRIP, 3. EDUARDO, 1. BIVOUAC & 9. LIBERTINI
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 5. MASKED CRUSADER
Selections – 2. NATURE STRIP, 3. EDUARDO, 1. BIVOUAC & 9. LIBERTINI
S1-6:
Banker – 19. MO’UNGA
Selections – 18. YAO DASH, 9. AEGON, 1. MUGATOO & 10. CASCADIAN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. MASKED CRUSADER, 2. NATURE STRIP & 3. EDUARDO
S1-6: Multiple – 19. MO’UNGA, 18. YAO DASH & 9. AEGON
S1-7: Multiple – 2. MACROURA, 6. NEVER TALK & 3. MARBOOSHA
S1-6 Doncaster Mile
MO’UNGA has drawn a horror barrier but is another very smart 3YO heading to greater heights. Connections have plenty to be excited about following his sensational win in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. The G1 Australian Derby was also an option today, however the decision was made to step back in the distance and attack the older horses better at the weights. He is a genuine G1 galloper of the future and should be highly respected despite the awkward draw.
YAO DASH was very impressive, winning the G3 Doncaster Prelude last weekend with a terrific front running display. It is going to be a much harder task snaring the lead without pressure this time around, plus stretching up to 1,600m is an unknown. Conversely, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have this young horse airborne at present and who is to say it will not continue.
AEGON suffered his first defeat in the G1 Randwick Guineas and the firmer track may be the culprit. This progressive young 3YO from New Zealand is suited by the expected race speed and could easily atone. Kerrin McEvoy jumps aboard for the first time and they have been getting on well together in the mornings. Expect him to bounce back.
MUGATOO is the recent All-Star Mile winner at weight for age and highest rated galloper in the field. He is undefeated over this course and distance and has drawn perfectly to do no work. This event over the years has been extremely difficult to win with up and comers often favoured over the established. However, in his defence, I feel he is quite nicely in at the weights.
CASCADIAN found trouble at the beginning of the G1 George Ryder Stakes and settled well back. He thereafter reeled of the fast final 400m and was beaten a narrow margin. The pace here looks super strong which plays into his hands and I’d expect him to join in when it counts. Jamie Kah takes the ride and if you are unaware, she is an out and out star.
SELECTIONS: 19. MO’UNGA, 18. YAO DASH, 9. AEGON, 1. MUGATOO & 10. CASCADIAN
S1-7 P J Bell Stakes
MACROURA returned to racing with a stylish first up win at Moonee Valley in the G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes. She is a high class filly with importantly an excellent barrier draw as position during the running is crucial. She can handle all conditions has a good turn of speed and is expected to be right in the race.
NEVER TALK has arguably the best figures going into this G3 contest and she has been freshened up for this very assignment. She is yet to win over 1,200m but has won at this track and her first up record is unrivalled. The barrier is awkward but the tempo looks fast so a position with cover is very achievable and an undeniable chance.
MARBOOSHA has a fantastic form to her name and is a major player with natural speed and strength. The two runs back this campaign have been high quality performances and she will be in this for a very long way. The 1,200m and wide draw may create a nervous moment but it is worth remembering she has never finished worse than fourth in her seven starts.
NAJMAH has only had four race starts and to date has not missed a top two finish. She is a very smart filly with plenty of upside speed and seemingly loves the wet. Conditions may have improved by this time of the day but that is hardly a reason to leave her out. A must include for exotics.
PERFECT RADIANCE has not raced since November last year following a lameness issue to her near foreleg. She is way out of her depth on exposed and current ratings; however she showed some potential last preparation. Three trials leading into her assignment today and Craig Williams in the saddle make her worth of respect.
SELECTIONS: 2. MACROURA, 6. NEVER TALK, 3. MARBOOSHA, 8. NAJMAH & 13. PERFECT RADIANCE
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