 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo 1 win
There was a race with exactly the same race conditions as this race two weeks ago, and the winning time was 1 minute 54.2 seconds, which is slightly faster than standard. As light rain is expected on the weekend, dirt track will probably be quicker on Sunday. It is a tendency that front runners and horses who track leaders perform much better than closers at this course. Therefore, I understand I should select a front runner or horses who track the leader and can handle quick dirt surface.
My first choice is NOBLE SILHOUETTE. She won a maiden over the same course and distance on 28th March, which was her second start. She was much sharper than the first start and the performance improved dramatically. And the winning time, 1 minute 54.1 seconds, is faster than standard. There is no other speed horse in the field, and I believe she can run her race. NOBLE SILHOUETTE has a very good chance to collect the second win here.
Like the NOBLE SILHOUETTE, THANK YOU LETTER won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race and it was his second start. While he has not run since September, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre, and he looks very well, carrying much more muscle. And he has enough speed to track leaders closely. THANK YOU LETTER is my second choice.
I believe one of the dangerous rivals for NOBLE SILHOUETTE and THANK YOU LETTER is COSMIC MIND, who finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 14th March. Despite the sloppy ground on the day, COSMIC MIND stopped the clock at 1 minute 51.1 seconds, which is much faster than standard. The dirt track at Nakayama this Sunday should be suitable for him. COSMIC MIND is my third choice.
SCREEN PROCESS started twice at the race over 1,800m dirt on at Nakayama, and finished first and second. And the winning time, 1 minute and 54.6 seconds, is 3 seconds faster than his time at the first start. He is a gorgeous horse, as his sire SCREEN HERO is, and he is well-bred from Shadai Farm. I believe SCREEN PROCESS should be competitive at a higher class soon.
SKY NILE is the winner of a maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 6th December. While the winning time was ordinary, he won by three and a half lengths and covered the final 600m for 38.2 seconds, which is the fastest of 10 runners. Though he was beaten thirteenth in the allowance race at Chukyo on 9th January. She could not handle the anti-clockwise track well and did not run her race. I believe she can run much better at Nakayama on Sunday and SKY NILE is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 10. NOBLE SILHOUETTE, 1. THANK YOU LETTER, 8. COSMIC MIND, 2. SCREEN PROCESS & 11. SKY NILE
S1-2 4yo and up 1 win
This allowance race for one time winner over 1,200m on dirt is over the same course and distance as the Listed race Keiyo Stakes. The starting gate is set on the turf course and the early pace tends to be strong at this course. And as the wet track is expected, I understand I should make much account of the horses who can handle the ground.
HARAMOSH TESORO was beaten fourteenth in an allowance race at Tokyo on 13th February. However, it was his first start since last June and his body weight, 1,104lbs, was around 60lbs heavier than his previous start. It is obvious that he needed the run. HARAMOSH TESORO won a maiden at Tokyo last June, which was his first start, while most of the competitors are experienced horses. And he covered the final 600m for 36.7 seconds, which is the quickest in 15 runners. It is an impressive performance, and I believe he has the ability to graduate the class for one time winners easily. And he has been trained well in the morning at Miho Training Centre since the last start. HARAMOSH TESORO is my first choice.
BLUE DIA CAFE finished third in an allowance race for one time winners on 17th January and fourth in an allowance race for the same class on 27th March. Both of which are over the same course and distance as this race, and he finished within a length from the winner in both races. While it is a slight concern that he is not so quick to leave stalls, I believe BLUE DIA CAFE will run well, provided that he makes an average start. BLUE DIA CAFE is my second choice.
R RAMPAGE finished third in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 9th January, and it is a good performance. Although he has not run since then, he is trained well in the morning and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. Like BLUE DIA CAFE, R RAMPAGE had dwelt coming out of stalls at several races. Therefore, please let me repeat the same phrase. I believe R RAMPAGE will run well on Sunday, provided that he makes an average start. R RAMPAGE is my third choice.
CORIN GLORY finished fourth in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 21st March, and the track of the day was muddy. Therefore, I believe the track at Nakayama on Sunday should be suitable for him. And he has been trained beautifully in the morning since the last start and I am sure his condition is much better now. CORIN GLORY is my fourth choice.
ZIPPY RACER won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race in April 2020, and the winning time, 1 minute 10.7 seconds, is faster than the standard. While his recent form is poor, I believe he has the ability to graduate from this class. And his morning workout on 21st March is eye-catching. ZIPPY RACER is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. HARAMOSH TESORO, 14. BLUE DIA CAFE, 4. R RAMPAGE, 10. CORIN GLORY & 3. ZIPPY RACER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 1. HARAMOSH TESORO
Selections – 14. BLUE DIA CAFE, 4. R RAMPAGE, 10. CORIN GLORY & 3. ZIPPY RACER
S1-3:
Banker – 2. ICE BLAST
Selections – 6. RODALQUILAR, 10. SAKURA RAJAN, 4. SWEAR & 9. BROS
S1-3 4yo and up 1 win
As little rain is expected during the weekend, I understand I should select horses who can handle the ground. And the front runners and horses who track leaders closely run much better than closers at this course.
ICE BLAST has started ten times so far and nine of them are turf races. It means that he has started only once on dirt. I have a strong feeling that ICE BLAST should act on dirt much better than on turf because he is a big and powerful horse and always trained well at dirt course in the morning. In fact, he was well-beaten in the allowance race over 1,800m on dirt at Niigata last July, which is the only experience for him to race on dirt, and it was the first start since February. It is obvious that ICE BLAST was not ready to run. I think we can forget this poor performance. I hope he will lead a race and try to draw away, and I believe he can do it as he has a lot of stamina. ICE BLAST is my first choice.
RODALQUILAR ran an allowance race over the same course and distance on 10th April and finished fourth. He comes out of the race very well, and the connection decides to select this race as the next start. The opponents in this field seem to be weaker than the previous race, and a small field should help him. I understand RODALQUILAR will run better on Sunday than his last start, and he is my second choice.
Although SAKURA RAJAN has not started since last August, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre. I am most impressed with his workout on 14th April, when he stretched his legs powerfully, and I am sure he has improved significantly. And SAKURA RAJAN has good speed, and I think he is able to follow the pace easily. SAKURA RAJAN is my third choice.
SWEAR failed to win a race at JRA and was transferred to NAR last autumn. The colt by SWEPT OVERBOARD collected two wins at Funabashi and returned to JRA in February. He ran twice at JRA since then and I find he is a better horse now. He finished the third in an allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 28th March, running against a competitive field, and I think he has a good chance to finish within the first four here.
Although BROS used to be struggling to compete in this class, the performance of his recent two starts are better than before, and I feel he has improved well enough to compete against one time winners now. While I am not sure if he can handle the ground on Sunday, I reckon BROS has the ability to finish in the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 2. ICE BLAST, 6. RODALQUILAR, 10. SAKURA RAJAN, 4. SWEAR & 9. BROS
S1-4 Sumidagawa Tokubetsu
This is a stakes race for two time winners over 1,600m on turf at Nakayama.
Since there is only 240m long straight from the starting gate to the first turn, wide draw is absolutely a disadvantage. There is 450m long downhill from the middle of backstretch to far turn and it is the tendency at this course that the pace of race will be increased there.
My favourite is GULAB. Since the 4YO filly by TOSEN RA graduated the class for one time winners last October, she started at this class for three times and finished fourth, twelfth, and second. She dwelt coming out of stalls and could not find a smooth path on homestretch, when she was well beaten in the allowance race at Nakayama on 10th January. I understand we can forget this poor form.
She finished second in the allowance race at Nakayama on 21st March, and the winner, LA PENSEE SAUVAGE, finished third in the allowance race for three time winners subsequently. Hence, I understand we should regard this form highly, and she should have a good chance to graduate from this class on Sunday.
QUEEN’S SUN finished seventh in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 24th January when the ground was soft, and sixth in the allowance race for the same class at Nakayama on 28th March, when the ground was yielding. As I consider the 8YO horse by KINSHASA NO KISEKI does not prefer wet ground, I understand they were not so bad performances. He has been consistent at this class, finishing second for five times and third for three times in the races for two time winner. QUEEN’S SUN is my second choice.
TEN WORLD REINA collected two wins and both of them are over 1,600m on turf at Nakayama. And the 6YO mare by LOHENGRIN finished third in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race. It is obvious that 1,600m at Nakayama is the favourite track for TEN WORLD REINA. And it is an encouraging factor that Mirco Demuro is booked again, and she is my third choice.
Since FORWARD AGAIN graduated the class for one time winners last November, the 4YO gelding started in this class twice and finished fourth and fifth. And he finished within three lengths from the winner at both races. I believe he has the ability to compete well in this class and FORWARD AGAIN is my fourth choice.
DERMA VODKA finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners over 1,800m at Nakayama on 28th March. I believe the 6YO horse by LOHENGRIN will run better on Sunday, because I feel that 1,600m is a better trip for him. DERMA VODKA is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. GULAB, 6. QUEEN’S SUN, 2. TEN WORLD REINA, 7. FORWARD AGAIN & 5. DERMA VODKA
S1-5 Kanozan Tokubetsu
This is the stakes race for two time winners over 2,000m at Nakayama, which is the same course as the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), feature race of the day. As there is a 405m long straight from the starting gate to the first turn, wide draw is not a big disadvantage. The early pace tends to be moderate at this course. Front runners and horses which track leaders closely tend to run better than the closers.
SCENT OF GOLD was recognized as a Derby prospect twelve months ago, when the colt by DEEP IMPACT won the allowance race for one time winners, over 2,000m at Nakayama on 18th April in 2020 by five lengths. However, he must abandon the hope, as he had a fracture in near foreleg unfortunately and was sidelined for more than seven months. SCENT OF GOLD returned to racecourse last November and ran twice in this class since then, finishing third and fifth respectively. His condition has been improving race by race, and I believe the time has come for him to show his true ability now. Yuichi Fukunaga is booked for him on Sunday, and SCENT OF GOLD is my first choice.
SHADOW SESSION started seven times in 2020 and all of them were dirt races. The connection decided to change direction and the 5YO gelding by STRONG RETURN started three times so far this year and all of them are turf races. And this shifting has been working well. He finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 30th January, and second in the allowance race for the same class at Chukyo on 27th March, when he was beaten nose by the winner. I believe SHADOW SESSION is the horse to beat for SCENT OF GOLD.
VICTOR BAROWS finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 5th January. It was a close fight as the 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA was beaten half a length, head, and head by the winner. As long as he reproduces this form on Sunday, I believe he has a good chance to finish in the first three.
MEINER MYTHOS has just graduated from the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 23rd January and this is the first time for the 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT to run at this class. He finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 26th December, beaten by head, and RETROUVAILLES, winner of that race, finished third in an allowance race for two time winners, subsequently. From those forms, I reckon MEINER MYTHOS could be competitive in this class.
KIBONO DAICHI sidelined for 16 months from August 2019 until December 2020, due to tendon injury, and ran twice since he returned. He used to be a Graded Stakes performer and finished third in G3 Radio Nikkei Sho, when he was 3YO. KIBONO DAICHI finished sixth in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 27th March last time out and the performance was much better than the previous start. I feel he is regaining his form and select him as my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 11. SCENT OF GOLD, 5. SHADOW SESSION, 3. VICTOR BAROWS, 7. MEINER MYTHOS & 8. KIBONO DAICHI
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 11. SCENT OF GOLD
Selections – 5. SHADOW SESSION, 3. VICTOR BAROWS, 7. MEINER MYTHOS & 8. KIBONO DAICHI
S1-6:
Banker – 8. DANCING PRINCE
Selections – 6. APOLLO BIBI, 15. RUGGERO, 5. DESERT STORM & 3. JASPER PRINCE
S1-6 Keiyo Stakes
Keiyo Stakes is a Listed race over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. Starting gate is set on the turf course, and there is 502m long straight from the start to first turn. The strong pace and the disadvantaged inside barriers are the two significant features of this course. Dirt sprinters in Japan have high quality and depth at the moment. For example, Japanese horses finished in the first two in the Riyadh Dirt Sprint in February and another Japanese sprinter finished second in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen in March.
DANCING PRINCE has a similar class as the horses who ran very well in the international events at the Middle East earlier this year. The 5YO horse by PAS DE TROIS established a new track record when he won the allowance race for two time winners over 1,150m on dirt at Fukushima last July. And DANCING PRINCE finished third in the G3 Capella Stakes over the same course and distance as this race on 13th December, and the second finisher in Capella Stakes was RED LE ZELE, who subsequently finished second in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen at Meydan on 27th March. Although he was beaten sixth in a handicap in open class last time out, he did not like the track at Hanshin and I am sure we can forget this poor performance. He started three times at Nakayama, won twice and finished third once. Nakayama is his favourite track and DANCING PRINCE is my first choice.
APOLLO BIBI was runner-up to DANCING PRINCE in the allowance race for three time winners last October, and graduated the class for three time winners when he won the allowance race on 9th January. And the 5YO horse by APOLLO KINGDOM won a handicap in open class, on 21st March by two and a half lengths. It is worth noting that all of the above three races are 1,200m dirt races at Nakayama, which is the favourite track for APOLLO BIBI. As it is expected that the pace will be strong, his powerful late kick could be a conclusive factor. APOLLO BIBI is my second choice.
RUGGERO is a versatile horse, as he can act both on turf and dirt. The 6YO gelding by KINSHASA NO KISEKI finished third in a stakes race in open class over the same course and distance as this race last September, when HIDENO VENUS, winner of that race, established a new track record. If he reproduces this form on Sunday, I believe RUGGERO has a good chance to finish in the first three.
Godolphin’s DESERT STORM is recently transferred from Katsuichi Nishiura at Ritto Training Centre to Hiroyasu Tanaka at Miho Training Centre, as Nishiura retired at the end of February, and this is the first start for Tanaka. Although it is a little curious that the 7YO horse by STORMING HOME has never run at Nakayama, I believe his sharp turn of foot should work well at Nakayama. And he has proved that he is competitive in this class. DESERT STORM is my fourth choice.
JASPER PRINCE, the winner of the Listed Enif Stakes last September, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 8. DANCING PRINCE, 6. APOLLO BIBI, 15. RUGGERO, 5. DESERT STORM & 3. JASPER PRINCE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 8. DANCING PRINCE, 6. APOLLO BIBI & 15. RUGGERO
S1-7: Multiple – 7. EFFORIA, 1. ADMIRE HADAR & 8. DANON THE KID
S1-8: Multiple – 5. HISHI GEKKO, 7. ADMIRE POLARIS & 10. DIVINE FORCE
S1-7 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)
There is no outstanding runner in the 81st running of Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Crown for 3YOs, at Nakayama on 18th April and it looks wide open.
There are three reasons which can explain why this is an open field. First of all, DANON THE KID, unbeaten winner of the G1 Hopeful Stakes over the same course and distance as Satsuki Sho in December and was awarded as the best 2YO colt in Japan in 2020, was beaten third in the G2 Yayoi Sho on 7th March at Nakayama and experienced his first defeat. Secondly, ORTHOCLASE who was runner-up to DANON THE KID in the G1 Hopeful Stakes due to a serious traffic problem at top of home stretch, is sidelined due to injury at the hip joint. Besides, GRENADIER GUARDS, winner of the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes in December, skips the Satsuki Sho and is trained for the G1 NHK Mile Cup instead.
I regarded EFFORIA as a Derby horse since the colt by EPIPHANEIA won the G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 14th February and extended his unbeaten record to three, because his pedigree suggests 2,400m should be his best trip. However, after due consideration of the factors which I mentioned earlier in the column, I change my mind and select EFFORIA as my favourite for the Satsuki Sho.
The G3 Kyodo News Hai was a competitive race, because VICTIPHARUS, second finisher, subsequently win the G2 Spring Stakes, and SHAHRYAR, third finisher, subsequently win the G3 Mainichi Hai. Therefore, EFFORIA who won the G3 Kyodo News Hai by two and a half length, must be regarded highly.
While it is a slight concern that he has never run at Nakayama, he won a maiden at Sapporo, which is a similar tight track, and I believe he can handle the track at Nakayama. After the G3 Kyodo News Hai, he had a short break at Tenei Branch of Northern Farm and returned to the barn of Yuichi Shikato at Miho Training Centre on 25th March. Since then, he has been trained beautifully for the Satsuki Sho.
My second choice is ADMIRE HADAR, an impressive winner of the Listed race Wakaba Stakes at Hanshin on 20th March. After ORTHOCLASE, for whom Christophe Lemaire was booked, was withdrawn, he then selects ADMIRE HADAR as his mount in the Satsuki Sho, and it is an encouraging factor for the colt by LORD KANALOA.
I am puzzled over how to assess DANON THE KID, but it is a crucial point for us to forecast this year’s Satsuki Sho. There is a couple of excuse for his defeat in the G2 Yayoi Sho. It was a slowly-run race, which was not suitable for DANON THE KID and it was the first start for him since December. On the other hand, I feel that the colt by JUST A WAY could be precocious and may struggle to compete against sophomore, which is improving rapidly now. While I cannot neglect him, I do not rank him higher than the third choice.
TITLEHOLDER won two of his three starts at Nakayama, including the G2 Yayoi Sho, which he made all. I reckon the colt by DURAMENTE has a good chance to finish in the first four here.
LAGOM, who has been trained very well since he won the G3 Kisaragi Sho at Chukyo on 7th February, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 7. EFFORIA, 1. ADMIRE HADAR, 8. DANON THE KID, 13. TITLEHOLDER & 9. LAGOM
S1-8 Sunshine Stakes
This is the stakes race for three time winners over 2,500m on turf at Nakayama, which is the stage of the G1 Arima Kinen, year-end championship race in December. The early pace over the same course and distance tends to be slow and the runners are required to round the bend well.
HISHI GEKKO has been regarded highly by the connection. After he won a maiden at Nakayama, the Listed race Principal Stakes, one of the preps for the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), was selected as his next start. And after he won the allowance race for two time winners, the next start for him was the G1 Kikuka Sho, the final leg of the Japanese Triple Crown. HISHI GEKKO disappointed the connection last year, when he failed to win any race. However, the 5YO horse by RULERSHIP performed well in the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 28th March, when he finished third. As I consider it was the first start for him since last September, HISHI GEKKO has come back into form and I believe he is able to live up to the high expectation now. And it is an encouraging sign that Christophe Lemaire is booked, and his handicap, 121lbs, is slightly lighter than I thought. HISHI GEKKO is my favourite.
ADMIRE POLARIS finished within the first three in five consecutive starts at the class for two time winners, and graduated that class at Hanshin on 28th February, when the 5YO horse by JUST A WAY won the allowance race by four lengths. It was an impressive performance and I have the feeling that ADMIRE POLARIS should be competitive at the class for three time winners. In fact, he finished second to MELODY LANE, who has finished fifth in the G1 Kikuka Sho and fifth again in G2 Hanshin Daishoten, in the allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 24th January. ADMIRE POLARIS is my second choice.
Like ADMIRE POLARIS, DIVINE FORCE has just graduated the class for two time winners at Hanshin on 20th March, when the 5YO horse by WORKFORCE won the allowance race for two time winners by three lengths, establishing a new track record. It is a good performance and I think DIVINE FORCE is able to compete well against three time winners. And Nakayama is a suitable track for him, as he started there three times and finished second twice. DIVINE FORCE is my third choice.
SATONO RADIUS finished fourth in the allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 6th February, finishing within one and a half length from the winner. His bodyweight on that day was 35lbs heavier than the previous start, and the 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT might be too fat. Since then, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre, and I am sure he is sharper now. SATONO RADIUS is my fourth choice.
While the recent form of HISHI VICTORY is poor, the 6YO horse by VICTOIRE PISA is the second finisher of the Sunshine Stakes in 2020. Obviously, 2,500m is the best trip for him and I think I should not neglect him.
SELECTIONS: 5. HISHI GEKKO, 7. ADMIRE POLARIS, 10. DIVINE FORCE, 8. SATONO RADIUS & 3. HISHI VICTORY
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