 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2,000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo 81-100 Handicap
Britain has experienced the driest April on record, and with no appreciable rain forecast the ground for the opening of the Guineas meeting is going to be very quick. That has resulted in a small field for this 1,200m charge but one horse who will relish conditions is Godolphin's CREATIVE FORCE, who was hugely impressive when winning over the same course and distance in mid-April. It was only his third race but he looked worth his 400,000 euro purchase price on his return and was well on top at the finish.
Charlie Appleby has enjoyed a superb first month to the UK season, having kick-started 2021 with a fistful of winners at the Dubai World Cup Carnival, so even with a rise in the weights CREATIVE FORCE could still be ahead of the handicapper. Remember that he went wrong after Royal Ascot last year and was having his first race for 10 months when winning his last race.
BICKERSTAFFE is by MAYSON, whose progeny usually need soft ground, but trainer Karl Burke was pleased how well he stretched out on faster conditions to win at Pontefract over 1,200m on his reappearance, and while he would be more confident had there been rain, he is expecting him to be right in the mix at the finish.
UNCLE JUMBO was unlucky not to finish much closer than fourth in that race having repeatedly been denied a run. He had the class to finish in the fourth in a set weight contest for 2YOs at York last year and the third in a conditions race for 2YOs at Doncaster, and all his best form has been on fast ground, so wherever BICKERSTAFFE finishes he should be bang there too, while Ryan Moore is an eye-catching booking.
PEROTTO, who finished third behind the JUST FRANK here last autumn over 1,200m, was never striding out in those testing conditions, yet he had shown plenty of speed when the ground rode faster, winning at Sandown over 1,009m and Goodwood over 1,200m. He improved all last season and was only once out of the money in seven races, and with the ground has come back in his favour he ticks a lot of the right boxes.
SELECTIONS: 3. PEROTTO, 1. CREATIVE FORCE & 2. UNCLE JUMBO
S1-2 3yo+ Handicap
Course form is often a useful advantage in Newmarket races with the unusual straight layout of the track. BELL ROCK has made three visits to the Rowley Mile course and he has come away with two wins and a third in the Cambridgeshire, one of the most competitive handicaps of the year.
Andrew Balding’s 5YO is at his best when returning from a break. He won over 1,600m at this course last June and he went on to finish a fine sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m at Royal Ascot despite being poorly positioned. His Cambridgeshire effort came over the same course and distance as this race and it’s easy to forgive his below-par run at Ascot in October as the ground was too soft. His consistency means he is likely to perform to his best with ground conditions to suit and excellent apprentice jockey William Carver takes off his handy weight allowance.
BELL ROCK was blown away when third behind MAYDANNY at Goodwood over 1,979m last season. The winner was given a fine front running ride that day and the weights favour BELL ROCK this time. Prominent tactics are often an advantage at Newmarket so MAYDANNY shouldn’t be underestimated but this 1,800m distance is a little on the short side for him. Mark Johnston’s runner would be dangerous if allowed to set the pace on his own but he does not look obviously well handicapped.
BRIGHT MELODY looked a fine prospect when he made a winning debut on the polytrack over 2,000m at Chelmsford City last year. He failed to add to that success later in a rather inconsistent season but he bounced back with a personal best performance when winning over 1,800m at Meydan in February. Top weight looks a hefty burden but he has a superb pedigree and Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has made a good start to the season.
MASCAT has some good course form. His last win came over 1,600m at this track and he ran well when third over the same distance on heavy ground in October. He didn’t get the smoothest passage when runner-up at Ripon a couple of weeks ago and comes into this contest with race-fitness on his side.
DUBAI LEGACY signed off from Dubai with a solid third at Meydan. He’s not seen in Britain too often but his 1,400m Newmarket win in 2019 shows he has no problem with the track or ground. The step up to 1,800m for the first time is more of a worry.
OVERWRITE had the run of the race out in front when winning over 1,600m at Newmarket in April. He was put in his place behind ARTISTIC RIFLES at Ripon last week and this race looks more competitive but he should make sure this race is run at a sound pace.
SELECTIONS: 2. BELL ROCK, 3. MAYDANNY, 8. MASCAT, 1. BRIGHT MELODY & 4. DUBAI LEGACY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2: Banker – 2. BELL ROCK
Selections – 3. MAYDANNY, 8. MASCAT, 1. BRIGHT MELODY & 4. DUBAI LEGACY
S1-3: Banker – 1. LAZULI
Selections – 3. ARECIBO, 4. CAME FROM THE DARK, 7. GARRUS & 8. JUDICIAL
S1-3 Palace House Stakes
This year’s renewal of the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m looks a high-quality affair. The only trainer to hold an entry who has won this race in the past is Robert Cowell, who last tasted success in 2015 with GOLDREAM. He enters three: ARECIBO, DUBAI STATION and ALJADY. The former was an impressive handicap winner at Newmarket over 1,000m on his seasonal reappearance and first start for the yard earlier this month. He wouldn’t be without a chance on this step up to Group company.
DUBAI STATION will be having his first run for Robert Cowell in this and won the G3 Pavilion Stakes over 1,200m last year. Since then, he’s been beaten in G3, G2 and G1 company so faces a tough task here.
ALJADY won two 1,000m races last summer but this is a big step up in class.
The Godolphin team have strong fancies going into the Guineas Festival and this race is no different. Charlie Appleby lines up LAZULI, who ended last season on a high when winning the G3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes over 1,031m at Newbury. He was third on this season’s reappearance at Meydan but will go close if at his best.
CAME FROM THE DARK has been seen twice already this season, including a 1,031m handicap win at Newbury under Hollie Doyle. He beat GARRUS by a neck that day, a horse that has looked a different proposition since being gelded and having a wind operation at the tail end of last year. Having being placed four times from five runs since moving to Charles Hills stable, and already winning this season on the tapeta, he’s the one to keep an eye on.
Flying the flag for the older horses is JUDICIAL. At nine, he’s the oldest runner in the field and the most experienced, having run in the race three times and placing twice. Runner-up in last year’s renewal by three-quarters of a length, he might still have one more big run. He was well beaten when fifth on his reappearance in this year’s Listed Golden Rose Stakes over 1,201m, though, and this could be a bit much for him.
Another who is running well after being gelded and having a wind operation is EMARAATY ANA. Third behind SUMMERGHAND and OXTED last time out in the G3 Abernant Stakes over 1,200m, he had his head in front up to the last 200m and that should bring him on nicely for this.
SELECTIONS: 1. LAZULI, 3. ARECIBO, 4. CAME FROM THE DARK, 7. GARRUS & 8. JUDICIAL
S1-4 Jockey Club Stakes
This early season contest over 2,400m provides a good opportunity for some of the more experienced middle-distance horses to kick-start their summer campaigns.
On ratings and the strength of his 3YO form, PYLEDRIVER is the one they all have to beat. Regularly underrated and overlooked last season, William Muir and Chris Grassick’s son of HARBOUR WATCH, who was left unsold at 10,000 pounds as a foal, won two G2s last year at odds of 18/1 and 10/1.
Those wins came over 2,392m and 2,371m, one at Ascot when beating ARTHUR’S KINGDOM, now based in Hong Kong, he also put four lengths between himself and eventual G1 Hong Kong Vase winner, MOGUL. His claims here are rock solid, but the concerns if siding with him at a fairly short price would be that the ground could be too quick for him, while he may need a run to get to full fitness.
One horse who will be race fit is Mark Johnston’s SIR RON PRIESTLEY. He overcame an 18-month absence to score impressively in the Listed Further Flight Stakes over 2,800m at Nottingham last time out. The second that day, OCEAN WIND, has given the form a boost by finishing a length behind three-time Gold Cup winner STRADIVARIUS at Ascot earlier in the week. He will be ridden prominently by Franny Norton to make this a true test of stamina and could be hard to peg back.
AL ZARAQAAN is the least exposed horse in the field with just five runs to his name and he’s stepping out of handicap company for the first time. One shake of the reins was all he needed to put clear daylight between himself and the field on his last start over 2,199m on the polytrack at Kempton. He couldn’t have been more impressive and the form is working out well. Though this is a much tougher test, he looks like a horse on a steep upward curve who could land this contest on the way to bigger things.
PABLO ESCOBARR and THUNDEROUS can only be considered for minors. The former is a G3 winner over the distance but hasn’t shown signs that he’s up to troubling a field of this strength, while THUNDEROUS was very disappointing when last on his seasonal reappearance at Sandown over 1,990m and steps up to this trip for the first time.
SELECTIONS: 1. AL ZARAQAAN, 4. SIR RON PRIESTLEY & 3. PYLEDRIVER
S1-5 2000 Guineas Stakes
When we are looking at the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m, the logical point to start is often horses trained by Aidan O’Brien. The Irish handler has won the race a record 10 times, including three of the last four years, and he has another strong hand this year.
WEMBLEY could be the pick as he looks sure to appreciate both this 1,600m trip and fast ground. He was last seen in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m where although he was beaten into second, he was wide throughout and had to cover more ground than the winner. This longer trip looks sure to suit and he’s a leading contender.
Stablemate VAN GOGH is clearly talented given his four-length romp in the G1 Criterium International over 1,600m at the end of last season. However, he looks a much happier horse when there is some juice in the ground.
BATTLEGROUND looks another solid challenger for Ballydoyle. He was last seen when finishing second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over 1,600m and his breeding suggests he’ll be suited by conditions. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and there aren’t many that ride the Rowley Mile better.
THUNDER MOON finished third in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes, but there is evidence to suggest he can go better here. He showed a devastating turn of foot on just his second career start in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes over 1,400m and based on that, he’ll love these fast conditions.
Richard Hannon won the race in 2014 with NIGHT OF THUNDER and he’ll be hoping CHINDIT can follow up seven years later. The son of WOOTTON BASSETT has only lost once in five career starts and that came in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes. He warmed up for this with a solid showing in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m, where he needed every metre of the trip suggesting 1,600m will be to his liking. CHINDIT is entitled to go well, although that below par run at Newmarket is a worry.
Godolphin has two strong hands in the race with MASTER OF THE SEAS and ONE RULER. ONE RULER was a taking winner of the G3 Autumn Stakes over 1,600m on his penultimate start and that looks strong form with the runner-up VAN GOGH winning a G1 and the fourth, MEGALLAN, a Listed contest subsequently.
MASTER OF THE SEAS, meanwhile, has already run twice this term. He was beaten when well-fancied for the Listed Meydan Classic over 1,600m before bouncing back in the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m last time. He showed a good attitude that day and William Buick has chosen to ride him.
If there is a joker in the pack then it’s Charles Hills’ MUTASAABEQ. He’s only had two runs so far, but this son of former 1000 Guineas Stakes winner GHANAATI has really impressed, particularly at Newmarket over 1,400m last time. The 3YO beat a solid field impressively, showing his liking for both quick ground and Newmarket’s undulating track. This is a big step up on just his third career start but he’s very promising.
SELECTIONS: 13. THUNDER MOON, 8. MUTASAABEQ, 15. WEMBLEY, 3. CHINDIT & 11. ONE RULER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5: Banker – 13. THUNDER MOON
Selections – 8. MUTASAABEQ, 15. WEMBLEY, 3. CHINDIT & 11. ONE RULER
S1-6: Banker – 3. GREAT AMBASSADOR
Selections – 2. CHIL CHIL, 4. COUNT OTTO & 6. EMBOUR
S1-6 4yo+ Handicap
CHIL CHIL is suited by a strongly-run 1,200m on fast going, and she should get both here. She was only beaten a neck by COUNT OTTO on her seasonal debut here over 1,200m in April, and having been off since October, that race will have brought her on. The Rowley Mile is not an easy course with plenty of dips to encounter and it does not suit every horse, but CHIL CHIL travelled like a dream when winning easily in what was a competitive handicap over the course last August, which has to be a plus.
COUNT OTTO reopposes again, but he went to the Craven meeting race-fit, having run every month through the winter at Lingfield, and after a lengthy absence CHIL CHIL should improve sufficiently to reverse the form.
RAAEB missed most of last year, and while he showed much of his old sparkle when winning at Chelmsford City over 1,200m, that was only last week and this race might come too soon.
Dropping GREAT AMBASSADOR back to 1,200m worked the oracle for Ed Walker at Kempton, where he was running for the first time for the stable. He failed in the five starts on grass but has run some solid races, and the fact that the trainer is considering a tilt at the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot, is testimony to how highly he is rated in his new yard.
Ruth Carr's horses were out of form when EMBOUR had his first two runs for the yard last autumn, but this ex-Richard Hannon horse showed his true colours when winning at Redcar last month and he likes quick ground.
HURAIZ has his first run for Stuart Williams, having lost his way with Mark Johnston and flopped badly when favourite at Wolverhampton in March. He was a smart 2YO, winning twice over 1,200m, at Newcastle and on Newmarket’s July Course, and he also finished third in a G3 at Kempton over 1,200m, so if his shrewd new handler can bring him back he might well outrun his odds.
Stuart Williams also runs LORD RAPSCALLION, who was a money-spinner for Johnny Murtagh in Ireland, winning him five races. It has taken him time to recapture that form since he came to Newmarket last autumn, but all his six races for his new handler have been on the polytrack, and having won three on the turf in Ireland, he’ll appreciate being back on grass. It also helps that he has come down the handicap considerably through the winter.
SELECTIONS: 3. GREAT AMBASSADOR, 2. CHIL CHIL, 4. COUNT OTTO & 6. EMBOUR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. GREAT AMBASSADOR, 2. CHIL CHIL & 4. COUNT OTTO
S1-7: Multiple – 4. SECRET PROTECTOR, 2. MOHAAFETH & 1. INIGO JONES
S1-8: Multiple – 3. FOREST FALCON, 4. MAGICAL LAND & 1. LONGLAI
S1-7 Newmarket Stakes
The last winner of the Listed 2,000m Newmarket Stakes went on to do remarkable things all over the world last season and if there is a horse of MISHRIFF’s ability in here then they will take all the beating. John Gosden, trainer of MISHRIFF, doesn’t saddle a horse in this year’s renewal, but Charlie Appleby does and the Newmarket-based handler has won the race twice in the past five years. He looks set to have another strong hand in this year’s renewal with SECRET PROTECTOR.
William Buick takes the ride once again and he has been aboard both of Charlie Appleby’s successes in the last five years. The 3YO was last seen when finishing second in what looked a competitive running of the 1,800m Listed Feilden Stakes and SECRET PROTECTOR was only just touched off by stablemate HIGHLAND AVENUE. Given there are just three rivals against him here, he looks to hold leading claims as Appleby chases yet another win in this Listed contest.
MOHAAFETH comes into this having won over course and distance in April in a 2,000m handicap. He won going away that day and it would be no surprise to see further improvement from the William Haggas-trained horse. Jim Crowley will step aboard once again for the ride and being by FRANKEL it can be expected that there will be more to come now he finds himself in Listed company. MOHAAFETH is also out of FRENCH DRESSING, who won twice from two attempts over 2,000m and 2,100m on good ground.
Along with MOHAAFETH there was another horse to have secured a victory on their last start and that was INIGO JONES. The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt was last seen winning over 2,000m in a maiden at Chelmsford City, where he won by just over a length. The form of that win has been boosted subsequently with the second, HIGHLANDROCKER, winning its next start impressively by over three lengths.
The final contender is PERCY’S LAD who arrives after running in a competitive handicap over 1,400m at Newmarket where he was well beaten in sixth. Prior to that he had recorded two wins over 1,600m and 1,668m in two useful races at Salisbury and Nottingham respectively. Eve Johnson Houghton’s horses have been in decent form recently and PERCY’S LAD is certainly entitled to respect. The extra distance here could certainly bring out more improvement, although he does need to improve.
SELECTIONS: 4. SECRET PROTECTOR, 2. MOHAAFETH & 1. INIGO JONES
S1-8 3yo 81-100 Handicap
It often helps to race near the lead on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile. There looks to be plenty of potential frontrunners in this race despite the small field but the pace still tends to hold up favouring prominent tactics.
FOREST FALCON made all the running when storming to a nine-length Yarmouth victory over 1,603m last season. He failed to add to that success in two starts this year but they’ve both been good runs. Mark Johnston’s runner made stablemate NAAMOOS - an impressive winner at Sandown last week -work hard when runner-up over 1,602m at Musselburgh in April. He couldn’t get to the front that day behind the front-running winner and he bumped into another smart prospect when second behind AERION POWER over 1,605m on Newcastle’s tapeta four days later. He will be hard to pass if allowed to set the gallop.
TORNADIC is another who likes to force the pace but he was a long way behind FOREST FALCON at Musselburgh. There’s a chance he will improve for that return to action but he has plenty of ground to make up.
CROSSFORD made the running when successful over 1,413m at Newcastle in October. He came from further back when runner-up behind the progressive BULLACE at this course over 1,600m two weeks ago. He should improve for that comeback run but he will need to if he is to land this stronger contest.
Richard Hannon’s ZWELELA has shown a good attitude to twice win on the polytrack over 1,401m at Lingfield and the tapata track over 1,433m at Wolverhampton respectively. She races up with the pace but she might not find it easy to keep in touch in this stronger race returned to turf. Her stablemate LONGLAI was successful on his seasonal return. There was a lot to like about how he finished his race when coming clear to win over 1,487m at Beverley. This is tougher race but he is certainly has the potential to make an impact at this level.
MAGICAL LAND has been beaten favourite on all three starts, finishing runner-up on each occasion. Those efforts should not be viewed too harshly as those maiden races did not pan out well for his hold-up style of racing. He has appeared to lack the pace for 1,400m so the step up to 1,600m is a positive and switching to a handicap is also likely to help. The likely solid pace should help him take a big step forward.
SELECTIONS: 3. FOREST FALCON, 4. MAGICAL LAND, 1. LONGLAI & 5. CROSSFORD
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
