 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for NHK Mile Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo 1 win
This 1,600m allowance race for one time winning 3YO on dirt will be taken place over the same course and distance as the Tachikawa Tokubetsu, the last race on the day’s undercard. The stalls are set on chute at the turf course. There is a 640m long straight from the stalls to first turn and it is the tendency at this course that the early tempo could be moderate or slow. Jockeys are required to judge the pace accurately in order to find out the correct timing to make a move.
My favourite is TAGANO TULLE, who finished the fourth in an allowance race for one time winners over 1,800m on dirt at Nakayama on 11th April. While it looked he had a good chance to win at top of the homestretch, he did not respond well when the jockey asked. I have the impression that 1,800m was a bit too long for the colt by DISCREET CAT. In my opinion, his conformation is typical miler and I believe 1,600m is his best trip. He works very well on Wednesday at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is in very good shape.
ANNUNCIATION started twice at this class since he won the maiden last October and competed well at both races over the same course and distance as this race. The American-bred colt by UNION RAGS was beaten neck by the winner in an allowance race at Tokyo on 30th January and he was third in an allowance race at Tokyo on 24th April, finishing nose and neck behind the winner. It is no doubt that he has the ability to graduate this class. ANNUNCIATION is my second choice.
NOBLE SILHOUETTE finished second in an allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 18th April, beaten only neck by the winner. As we consider it was the first start for the filly by SINISTER MINISTER at this class, I understand we should regard this performance highly. As long as she re-produces the form, she should be competitive in this field on Sunday. NOBLE SILHOUETTE is my fourth choice.
THANK YOU LETTER was an unlucky loser in the allowance race at Nakayama on 18th April. She broke from barrier one and was boxed in on the rail at the crucial point of the race. If she enjoys a smooth path, she should be able to finish in the first five on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 8. TAGANO TULLE, 1. ANNUNCIATION, 10. TOP THE BILL, 2. NOBLE SILHOUETTE & 5. THANK YOU LETTER
S1-2 4yo and up 1 win
This is an allowance race for 4YO one time winners over 1,300m on dirt. Stalls are set at the middle of the back straight and there is only 342m from the stalls to the first bend. Wide draw is a disadvantage and early pace tends to be quick.
My favourite is HOTEL CALIFORNIA. After the colt by GOLD ALLURE failed to win a race at JRA, he was transferred from JRA to regional racing at Hyogo Prefecture last summer. He won six races from the same number of starts at both Sonoda and Himeji Racecourse at Hyogo and returned at JRA in April. HOTEL CALIFORNIA finished second in an allowance race at Tokyo on 24th April which is much better performance than last year when he failed to win a race at JRA. Since the last race, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I feel his condition is improving. I am confident that he will have good chance to win in this race.
KONGUR TESORO finished the third in an allowance race at Tokyo on 24th April, finishing one and a half lengths behind HOTEL CALIFORNIA. It is his best performance at this class and I feel the 5YO horse by SINISTER MINISTER is improving now. Though it may be difficult to turn the table with HOTEL CALIFORNIA, I believe he prevails over the rest of the runners in this field. KONGUR TESORO is my second choice.
ZIPPY RACER was an unlucky loser in the allowance race at Nakayama on 18th April as he bumped soon after the break and lost his rhythm, and finished the second. Although the 4YO gelding by CITY ZIP was well beaten in the allowance race at Chukyo on 21st March, the track was muddy and he hates the kick back of mud. I believe we can ignore this poor performance. While the rainy chance during the weekend is low, good going which ZIPPY RACER prefers is expected on Sunday. ZIPPY RACER is my third choice.
CORIN GLORY finished fourth in the allowance race at Nakayama on 21st March, covering the final 600m for 36.1 seconds, which is the quickest in 16 runners, and finished the third in an allowance race at Nakayama on 18th April, covering the final 600m for 35.8 seconds, which is again the fastest within the 16 runners. Since this 4YO colt by HENNY HUGHES has sharp late kick, I believe his chance should improve at Tokyo which has a long homestretch. CORIN GLORY is my fourth choice.
ERIMO GLITTER finished fifth in an allowance race at Niigata on 25th April, when he broke from barrier 13 of 15 runners, and took wide throughout. Even so, he finished the three and three quarters of lengths behind the winner, and I access it was not a bad performance. While he was ridden by a young and inexperienced jockey in the last race, Hiroyuki Uchida, one of the renowned jockeys in Japan, is booked for him on Sunday. ERIMO GLITTER is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 16. HOTEL CALIFORNIA, 9. KONGUR TESORO, 8. ZIPPY RACER, 12. CORIN GLORY & 3. ERIMO GLITTER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 16. HOTEL CALIFORNIA
Selections – 9. KONGUR TESORO, 8. ZIPPY RACER, 12. CORIN GLORY & 3. ERIMO GLITTER
S1-3:
Banker – 3. MASANO ALLEGRA
Selections – 1. PARALLEL CAREER, 13. CAFE CENDRILLON, 15. VICTOIRE MEI & 14. SUZUNO MUSASHI
S1-3 4yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for 4YO and up one time winner over 1,400m on turf at Tokyo. Stalls are set at middle of the back straight and early tempo tends to be quick. And it is believed that milers run better at this course than sprinters.
My favourite is MASANO ALLEGRA. This 6YO mare by GOLD HALO likes the track at Tokyo, where she started eight times and finished within first three in seven races. It was 1st November when MASANO ALLEGRA ran at Tokyo last time, and finished the second in an allowance race over the same distance as this race. AKANO NIJUICHI, winner of that race, subsequently won the allowance race for two time winners, and I understand we should regard the form of this allowance race highly. Her morning trackwork in the last two weeks are impressive and I believe she is in top form.
PARALLEL CAREER is the third finisher in an allowance race at Tokyo on 1st November, finishing half a length behind MASANO ALLEGRA. Although the 5YO mare by SYMBOLI KRIS S was well beaten in the last two starts, both of them are races on dirt, which she could not handle, and I am sure we can forget about those poor performances. While she has not run since February, she has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run her race on Sunday. PARALLEL CAREER is my second choice.
CAFE CENDRILLON finished third in the allowance race at Nakayama on 4th April to prove the 4YO filly by LORD KANALOA is competitive in this class. She finished the fifth in an allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 25th April, in which the situation did not suit her as it was slowly-run race and sharp acceleration is required at the homestretch. It looks she is able to take the position just behind leaders in this race and is able to run her race. CAFE CENDRILLON is my third choice.
VICTOIRE MEI has been out of place in the last seven starts at this class. However, the 5YO mare by VICTOIRE PISA has finished not so far behind the winners. For example, she finished two and a quarter of lengths behind the winner in an allowance race at Nakayama on 4th April and three and a quarter of lengths behind the winner in an allowance race at Tokyo on 25th April, when she covered the final 600m for 34.0 seconds, which is the third fastest in 15 runners there. While the distance of the last two starts are 1,600m, I feel 1,400m is more suitable for her. VICTOIRE MEI is my fourth choice.
SUZUNO MUSASHI was out of action for 15 months due to tendon injury and returned to racecourse on 21st February, when the 5YO horse by DREAM JOURNEY finished the 16th in an allowance race at Tokyo. No wonder he didn’t run well there, as it was the first start since November 2019, and was the dirt race which he dislikes. He won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race in November 2018. I am not surprised if he runs much better on Sunday than the last start. SUZUNO MUSASHI is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 3. MASANO ALLEGRA, 1. PARALLEL CAREER, 13. CAFE CENDRILLON, 15. VICTOIRE MEI & 14. SUZUNO MUSASHI
S1-4 4yo and up 2 wins
This is the allowance race for 4YO and up two time winners over 2,000m on turf at Tokyo. There is only 130m from the start to the first turn and wide draw is a disadvantage. And it tends to be a tough race and both speed and stamina are required to win here.
My favorite is SATONO GENESIS. The full brother of SATONO DIAMOND, Japanese Champion 3YO colt in 2016, has not run since February 2019, being suffered by series of training setback. His last start was an allowance race for one time winners over 2,400m at Tokyo, which was over the same course and distance as the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and he won the race by three lengths. He was regarded as a Derby contender at that time, and I believe he is superior to others at this class. He has been trained well at Miho Training Centre, and under the supervision of Noriyuki Hori, I believe he is capable to win here even though his fitness is still eighty percent.
KITANO IMPACT was also sidelined for 20 months due to injury and returned to action last October. After taking a bit of time to get into the swing of things, the 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT returned at winners’ circle at Chukyo on 29th March, when he won the allowance race for one time winners by two lengths. I believe he is competitive in this class and KITANO IMPACT is my second choice.
STELLA D’ORO finished the third in an allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 10th April, finishing a length behind the winner. As we consider it was her first start at this class, I think it is a good effort. Though the 4YO filly by ORFEVRE was well beaten in all three starts at Tokyo in the past, it is obvious that she is improving now and should be able to run well at Tokyo on Sunday. STELLA D’ORO is my third choice.
GALOCHER has been running consistently at this class and the only exception is the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 10th April, where the 5YO mare by RULERSHIP was beaten eighth. She finished second in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race twelve months ago and clocked 1 minute and 58.3 seconds, which is faster than standard. It is encouraging that Mirco Demuro is booked for her on Sunday, and GALOCHER is my fourth choice.
While LE TIMBRE has run the races over 2,400m or longer in the last five starts, I have the feeling that 2,000m is the most suitable trip for the 5YO mare by EISHIN FLASH and small field helps her as well. While the ground of last two starts were quite soft, it is expected that the ground at Tokyo on Sunday will be quick, which she prefers. LE TIMBRE is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS:1. SATONO GENESIS, 4. KITANO IMPACT, 2. STELLA D’ORO, 3. GALOCHER & 7. LE TIMBRE
S1-5 Shonan Stakes
Shonan Stakes is the allowance race for 4YO or up over 1,600m on turf at Tokyo Racecourse, which is over the same course and distance of G1 NHK Mile Cup, the feature race of the Sunday card. There is a 550m straight course from the start to first bend and wide draw is not a big disadvantage. It is noted that the 1,600m track at Tokyo requires the runners more stamina than other racecourses.
Since HARMONY MAGELLAN graduated the class for two time winners last September, the colt by DAIWA MAJOR started at the class for three time winners for three times and finished within first three in all of them. He finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 28th March in the last start, although he broke poorly and took wide trip throughout. While he has not won at Tokyo, he has a powerful late kick and I expect the jockey makes good use of his forte on Sunday. HARMONY MAGELLAN is my first choice.
SINHA RING is progressing dramatically since the filly by DAIWA MAJOR returned from seven months lay off in February. She won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Shonan Stakes on 6th February and won the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 14th March. As her dam, SINHADIPA is half-sister to G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) winner, SINHALITE, and her second dam is G1 Del Mar Oaks winner, it looks the well-bred filly has matured well enough to meet the high expectation now. And she likes the track in Tokyo, where she started four times, won twice, and finished second once. SINHA RING is my second choice.
LUCAS has been running consistently at the class for three time winners, as the full brother to MAURICE finished third in an allowance race at Nakayama on 13th December and fourth in the allowance race at Nakayama on 10th January. While he has not run since January, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. LUCAS is my third choice.
MONT BLANC TESORO finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 21st March which proved he is competitive in this class. As he prefers Tokyo, where he started three times and won two of them than Nakayama, the horse by DANON BALLADE should run well on Sunday at Tokyo. MONT BLANC TESORO is my fourth choice.
LORD SHAMROCK is another rising star in the field of Shonan Stakes. The 4YO colt won the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 11th January and an allowance for two time winners at Hanshin on 11th April. The winning time of his last start, 1 minute and 32.2 seconds over 1,600m at Hanshin is much faster than the standard time. I believe he can compete well in this class. LORD SHAMROCK is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. HARMONY MAGELLAN, 18. SINHA RING, 5. LUCAS, 11. MONT BLANC TESORO & 6. LORD SHAMROCK
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 1. HARMONY MAGELLAN
Selections – 18. SINHA RING, 5. LUCAS, 11. MONT BLANC TESORO & 6. LORD SHAMROCK
S1-6:
Banker – 4. AILES DU COURAGE
Selections – 7. BANK OF CLOUDS, 6. HAYAYAKKO, 12. GREAT TIME & 13. GENERALE UNO
S1-6 Brilliant Stakes
Brilliant Stakes on Sunday is a Listed race taken place at 2,100m dirt course at Tokyo. Stalls are set on the middle of homestretch and there is only 236m from the start to the first turn. Wide draw is a disadvantage at this course. While homestretch is 501m long, closers tend to struggle to make up so much ground at this course and it is preferable to be within three lengths from the leaders at the top of homestretch.
I understand we should respect AILES DU COURAGE, the winner of Brilliant Stakes twelve months ago. He has also won an allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in October 2019 and the winning time, 2 minutes and 8.3 seconds, was much faster than standard. He finished second to DANON PHARAOH, winner of local G1 Japan Dirt Derby in 2020, in the local G2 Diolite Kinen at Funabashi on 17th March, last time out, and proves he is still in his heydays although he is now 7YO. And AILES DU COURAGE started at Tokyo for six times and won four of them. Therefore, it is obvious that Tokyo is the most suitable track for him. AILES DU COURAGE is my favourite.
I believe the horse to beat for AILES DU COURAGE is BANK OF CLOUDS. I am impressed by his performance in local G3 Nagoya Daishoten at Nagoya on 11th March, when the 4YO colt by ROSES IN MAY was runner-up to CLINCHER, one of the most consistent middle-distance dirt performers in Japan. I am sure he is now a much better horse than he was last year. He likes Tokyo, where he has started twice and won both of them, and his handicap, 121lbs, is slightly lighter than I expected. BANK OF CLOUDS is my second choice. .
HAYAYAKKO is the winner of the Listed Brazil Cup over the same course and distance as Brilliant Stakes last October and the 5YO horse by KING KAMEHAMEHA should run well as long as he re-produces this form on Sunday. Though he was beaten fifth in the G3 March Stakes at Nakayama on 28th March, the circumstances were not favourable for closers and I believe wide track at Tokyo suits him better. Although his handicap, 126lbs, is slightly heavier than I thought, HAYAYAKKO is my third choice.
My fourth choice is GREAT TIME, who finished second to HAYAYAKKO in the Listed Brazil Cup last October. And it is also good effort from the 6YO horse by KING KAMEHAMEHA that he finished fifth in G2 Tokai Stakes at Chukyo on 24th January. He is another horse who like the track at Tokyo, where he started four times and finished within first two in three starts.
An uncertain factor in Brilliant Stakes is GENERALE UNO, who has won two Graded Stakes on turf, while this is the first start on dirt for him. He is a big and powerful horse, and has been trained well at dirt courses in the morning. I think it is too risky to neglect him.
SELECTIONS: 4. AILES DU COURAGE, 7. BANK OF CLOUDS, 6. HAYAYAKKO, 12. GREAT TIME & 13. GENERALE UNO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 4. AILES DU COURAGE, 7. BANK OF CLOUDS & 6. HAYAYAKKO
S1-7: Multiple – 15. SCHNELL MEISTER, 8. GRENADIER GUARDS & 4. BATHRAT LEON
S1-8: Multiple – 1. SHIHAB, 2. NEWTON TESORO & 10. TOKAI ORDEN
S1-7 NHK Mile Cup
There is neither first four finishes in G1 Oka Sho (Japanses 1000 Guineas) nor first four finishers in G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in this year’s field of the G1 NHK Mile Cup. It means this is the race for horses who have been trained exclusively for NHK Mile Cup and it looks the composition and circumstances are not so complicated.
After wavering between two colts by stallions standing at Juddmonte Farms in Newmarket, I decide to appoint SCHNELL MEISTER as my first choice. The German-bred colt by KINGMAN was unbeaten through two starts last year, including the allowance race for 2YO one time winners over 1,600m at Nakayama, which he won by three lengths. Although he finished second in the G2 Yayoi Sho at Nakayama on 7th March, which was his seasonal debut, and experienced his first defeat. It is obvious that the trip of 2,000m in the Yayoi Sho was too long for the son of the European Champion Miler in 2014. TITLEHOLDER, the winner of Yayoi Sho, subsequently finished second in the G1 Satsuki Sho, and I believe the form of Yayoi Sho should be regarded highly. And I am impressed with his morning trackwork on 21st April at Miho Training Centre and believe he is in top form now.
I understand the horse to beat for SCHNELL MEISTER is GRENADIER GUARDS, Japanese-bred son of FRANKEL. He is the winner of G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over 1,600m at Hanshin in December, establishing a new track record, 1 minute 32.3 seconds. Three winners of the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes have participated in the G1 NHK Mile Cup since 2010, GRAND PRIX BOSS in 2011 and ADMIRE MARS in 2019 managed to win, while ALFREDO in 2012 finished second. Therefore, I understand the winner of G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes should be respected here. Though he was beaten second in G3 Falcon Stakes at Chukyo on 20th March, it was the first start since December and I believe he should run better on the coming Sunday.
My third choice is BATHRAT LEON, an impressive winner of the G2 New Zealand Trophy at Nakayama on 10th April, which he won by five lengths. I am convinced the colt by KIZUNA is a better horse now than he was last year, when he was beaten fourth in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes in December.
I believe TIME TO HEAVEN, who finished second in the G2 New Zealand Trophy, is the horse which we should not neglect. Notwithstanding he started from wide draw gate 15, and was forced to take wide trip throughout, the colt by LORD KANALOA finished strongly, covering the final 600m for 35.0 seconds, to finish second to BATHRAT LEON. I think it was brave effort, and TIME TO HEAVEN is my fourth choice.
Two out of last five winners of NHK Mile Cup are fillies. And second and third finishers in NHK Mile Cup last year are fillies as well. ANOTHER LYRIC, who won the Listed Anemone Stakes at Nakayama on 14th March impressively and then skipped the G1 Oka Sho, first leg of Japanese Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 15. SCHNELL MEISTER, 8. GRENADIER GUARDS, 4. BATHRAT LEON, 7. TIME TO HEAVEN & 2. ANOTHER LYRIC
S1-8 Tachikawa Tokubetsu
Tachikawa Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winners over 1,600m on dirt at Tokyo. Course setting is unique, as stalls are set on turf course and the runners run on turf for 150m from the stalls. It is the tendency at this course that the horses leaving from wide draw run better.
My favourite is SHIHAB, lightly raced 5YO horse by GOLD ALLURE. He has started only four times so far, won two of them and finished second twice. His last outing was ultra-impressive, as the Kazuo Fujisawa’s trainee won the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 28th March by five lengths. It was an impressive performance and I believe it is an easy task for him to compete against two time winners.
NEWTON TESORO, who finished fifth in the G3 Leopard Stakes last August, took seven months break and ran well in two starts for two time winners since he returned to action in March, finishing third in an allowance race at Hanshin on 6th March and second in another allowance race at Hanshin on 3rd April. The form of those two races should be regarded highly, because DOS HEARTS, the winner of the allowance race on 6th March, subsequently won an allowance race for three time winners on 28th March, and VERTEX, the winner of the allowance race on 3rd April, subsequently won an allowance race for three time winners. NEWTON TESORO likes the track in Tokyo, where he started five times and finished within the first three in four starts. NEWTON TESORO is my second choice.
TOKAI ORDEN graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 20th March, when he won an allowance race by two and a half lengths, and finished good fifth in an allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 17th April, although he dwelt when coming out of stalls. While he has not won at Tokyo, the 6YO horse by HEART’S CRY has a strong late kick and I believe Tokyo suits him better than Nakayama. TOKAI ORDEN is my third choice.
LE MONDE competed at this class for the first time at Hanshin on 14th February, when the 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT finished third in an allowance race for two time winners and proved he can be competitive at this class. In reversal, he was beaten tenth in an allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 14th March, when the track condition was a bit wet and he hated the kick back of mud. As dry track is expected, I believe LE MONDE can run his race on Sunday and he is my fourth choice.
MEINER ILARGI, who won the allowance race for one time winners easily at Nakayama on 10th April, is now improving. I believe this 4YO colt by BEHKABAD is capable to finish in first five here.
SELECTIONS: 1. SHIHAB, 2. NEWTON TESORO, 10. TOKAI ORDEN, 4. LE MONDE & 5. MEINER ILARGI
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