 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Greyville 2000 Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-2 MR 102 Handicap
Tricky start to Greyville for bettors. Punters are faced with a competitive MR 102 Handicap over 1,200m to kick-off the meeting at Greyville, made more difficult because some of the better performers have landed wide barrier positions.
For all races at Greyville that takes place around the turn, favourable draws are a massive advantage. There are also a number of runners who have better form over slightly further and others whose best runs have come on the polytrack.
As a result, it could be an advantage to go with an improving 3YO to win this event. In the southern hemisphere, all horses turn a year older on 1st August, so they are just two months away from their 4YO “birthdays” and are ready to produce their best form.
Trainer Vaughan Marshall has his runners in top form and he saddles GAINSFORD, a decent 3YO who seems to be regaining his best form. The son of GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT has only raced nine times for two wins, but his best form has been over 1,200m. Both wins were over the distance and he placed in the other three.
He was quietly fancied to win the Listed In Full Flight Handicap over 1,100m at Scottsville last time but suffered massive interference and did well to finish just 5.65 lengths off the winner. He is not all that well draw at barrier 9 but he does have an in-form jockey in Grant van Niekerk and should be good enough to tackle this field.
Dennis Drier has two runners in - VIA SALARIA and GOLIATH HERON, but it is worth noting he has engaged Lyle Hewitson on the former. VIA SALARIA has a lot in his favour in that he jumps from barrier 1, he has won at this track, although that was over 1,400m, and he comes in with a light weight of just 116lbs. He will carry 1.1lbs overweight but the use of Lyle Hewitson, who is well on his way to his third Champion Jockey’s title in four years, will make up for that hurdle.
GOOD RHYTHM is ultra-consistent and is always thereabouts, even though he performs best on the polytrack. Barrier 5 along with having S’manga Khumalo in the irons, will help his cause.
SELECTIONS: 9. GAINSFORD, 1. VIA SALARIA, 5. GOOD RHYTHM, 11. KAYSON & 3. MR FITZ
S1-3 MR 94 F&M Handicap
HUGS ACCEPTED, but this filly looks more like earning cash.
Some trainers regard the draw on the Greyville turf track as vital, so much so that champion trainer Sean Tarry scratched his only entry for this race after it was drawn to jump from gate 16. Tarry entered SPIRITOFTHEGROOVE on condition that he would declare it, only if it drew gate 7 or better.
With the final field of 12 runners contesting the MR 94 F&M Handicap over 1,400m now declared, it is interesting to note, however, that three of the more fancied runners will be jumping from gates 10 to 12. DIECI, PURPLE PERSUASION and DANCING FEATHER are regarded as three runners who will be contesting the finish, despite jumping from the proverbial car park.
The first two will both be having a third run after a break and it seems if Dennis Drier’s DIECI and Peter Muscutt’s PURPLE PERSUASION have primed their runners specifically for this race one month into the KwaZulu-Natal Champions Season.
The Gavin van Zyl-trained DANCING FEATHER is in excellent form and boasts two wins from her last three runs, with the victories recorded after jumping from gates 7 and 8 respectively.
The other two runners expected to make a bold bid are GEORGINA ROSE and HUGS ACCEPTED. The former is trained by Garth Puller, who must have been ecstatic to see her be awarded the prime spot in the starting stalls. She does, however, seem to be a polytrack specialist, with three wins and four places from eight runs on the synthetic surface. If she manages to replicate that form on the Greyville turf, she’ll contest the finish.
HUGS ACCEPTED, trained by Peter Muscutt and jumping from gate 4 with Donovan Dillon in the saddle, has no such problems. This ORATORIO filly has an exceptional record on the Greyville turf track, having won twice and recording a third-place finish on the turf. She also had an exceptional run in the G2 Fillies Guineas last time out on the Greyville turf, a run that saw her receive a nine-point hike in her merit rating. On current turf form, and in this field, she looks very likely to add a fourth career win to her name, which will again give her a win strike rate of 50 percent.
SELECTIONS: 4. HUGS ACCEPTED, 12. DANCING FEATHER, 10. DIECI, 1. GEORGINA ROSE & 11. PURPLE PERSUASION
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 4. HUGS ACCEPTED
Selections – 12. DANCING FEATHER, 10. DIECI, 1. GEORGINA ROSE & 11. PURPLE PERSUASION
S1-4:
Banker – 6. FLOWER OF SAIGON
Selections – 5. SIMPLY COMPLICATED, 1. INTEGRITY, 2. CONSOL QUEEN & 13. TWICE TO SYDNEY
S1-4 MR 78 F&M Handicap
FLOWER OF SAIGON to bloom in this MR 78 F&M Handicap over 2,000m.
FLOWER OF SAIGON ran on well in the Listed East Coast Cup last time over the same course and distance, and escaped without any raise to her merit rating. That was her first attempt at a trip beyond 1,600m so the yard would have learned something from the race. This race is not only her third run after a layoff but she also gets top jockey Grant van Niekerk up and from a reasonable draw of barrier 6 is the one to beat.
SIMPLY COMPLICATED looks to have scope for improvement and won her maiden easily despite not panning out perfectly so from a fair draw here she could be a threat carrying just 118lbs with Richard Fourie up.
INTEGRITY is by the same sire as FLOWER OF SAIGON, FLOWER ALLEY, and also relished the step up in trip last time when running on well to win over 1,800m on the Greyville polytrack. She can build on that form and from pole position has a shout.
CONSOL QUEEN is drawn well in barrier 2 which over this course and distance is ideal. She has run well over the same distance, so she could be in the shake up under S'manga Khumalo.
TWICE TO SYDNEY has a shout on the form lines but will need to overcome a wide draw.
SLIEVANORRA has had no luck lately but if dropped out and finding cover she should run on well and might surprise.
POLLYGONESHOPPING was beaten by stablemate SLIEVANORRA last time and now returns from a layoff, but stable jockey Warren Kennedy is up and if able to reproduce her best form and overcome a wide draw, she could be involved.
SELECTIONS: 6. FLOWER OF SAIGON, 5. SIMPLY COMPLICATED, 1. INTEGRITY, 2. CONSOL QUEEN & 13. TWICE TO SYDNEY
S1-5 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup
MATTERHORN to rise to the G3 Lonsdale Stirrup Cup over 2,400m.
MATTERHORN is progressive and impressed in his last start in the G2 Greyville 1900 when running on strongly for a close second. The conditions of the race did not allow him to be raised in the merit ratings and he otherwise would have copped a 10-point raise. That makes him well handicapped. Furthermore, he is held in high regard by his yard, so he could book his place in the G1 Durban July by winning this under Serino Moodley over a trip he enjoys from a fair draw.
SILVER HOST is highly rated and has proved his ability over staying trips so is an interesting runner in his comeback from a layoff under Richard Fourie. He has a wide draw but that should not be too much of a problem as he is capable of producing a powerful finish if he ends up too far back.
BLACK KNAP looks capable of progressing beyond his current merit rating mark and he should enjoy this course distance from his nice draw. He is by DYNASTY, whose progeny always enjoy this tight track thanks to their inherited turn of foot.
BAYBERRY, a good-looking son FLOWER ALLEY from whom he has received his stamina, is getting better with every run. If it pans out well for him from a wide draw he could be right there.
CROME YELLOW could be a contender despite carrying 130lbs and returning from a layoff, although he also has to overcome a tough draw.
Last year’s winner, MARCHINGONTOGETHER, could bounce back to form off a lowered merit rating and warrants consideration.
PATHS OF VICTORY should be cherry ripe to produce his best and, as the winner of the prestigious G3 Gold Cup over 3,200m at this course, he must have a shout.
BLACKBALL is an enigmatic horse who is capable of producing classy performances but although he is not reliable, he cannot be ignored from a good draw.
SELECTIONS: 7. MATTERHORN, 13. SILVER HOST, 4. BLACK KNAP, 15. BAYBERRY & 14. CROME YELLOW
S1-6 Woolavington 2000
WAR OF ATHENA looks set to win another battle in this Woolavington 2000 over 2,000m.
The G1 Woolavington 2000 was supposed to see CAPTAIN’S RANSOM and WAR OF ATHENA - the two top-rated 3YO fillies from Cape Town and Johannesburg respectively - go head-to-head on “neutral ground” at Greyville in Durban.
With the scratching of Justin Snaith-trained Captain’s Ransom, however, the Cape racing fraternity’s hopes now fall on the shoulders of Adam Marcus’ PRINCESS CALLA. This FLOWER ALLEY filly is a “veteran” of seven graded races and despite winning two, the one run that really proved her status as a superstar was her fifth place in the G1 The Met earlier this year, finishing just 5.4 lengths behind the legendary RAINBOW BRIDGE over 2,000m. It will not be surprised to see her record a fourth career victory come over this race.
Paul Matchett’s filly WAR OF ATHENA will be a strong favourite.
Winner of the South Africa’s Triple Tiara, WAR OF ATHENA has the added advantages of stable companion ONLY THE BRAVE to pave the way for her, as well as the services of regular jockey Muzi Yeni, who steered her to victory in all three Triple Tiara contests.
After her victory in the G2 SA Oaks, securing her the Triple Tiara title, Paul Matchett said she “pulled up very well”. “She is a very strong girl and the way she won – not fully extended – meant she recovered quickly,” said Paul Matchett. “The next day she looked like she could have gone out and done it all again.” With that said, she must be the favourite to add a second G1 victory to her resume.
The value runner, and a filly who has the ability to steal the show, is NETTA, trained by Paul Peter. Last time out in the G2 Gerald Rosenberg Stakes over 2,000m, her demolition of the field was so severe that her merit rating was upped from 102 to 120. She was the lowest rated runner going into that race – run at weight for age – and emerged the highest rated. Paul Peter believes she still has a lot more to come.
SELECTIONS: 1. WAR OF ATHENA, 5. PRINCESS CALLA, 7. NETTA, 4. SCENTED MISTRESS & 3. EMERALD PALACE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:
Banker – 1. WAR OF ATHENA
Selections – 5. PRINCESS CALLA, 7. NETTA, 4. SCENTED MISTRESS & 3. EMERALD PALACE
S1-7:
Banker – 8. KOMMETDIEDING
Selections – 6. LINEBACKER, 10. COPPER MOUNTAIN, 7. SECOND BASE & 1. RUSSIAN ROCK
S1-7 Greyville 2000
KOMMETDIEDING to prove his class in 2,000m G1 Greyville 2000.
The G1 Greyville 2000 has always been perceived as one of the most important 3YO feature races as it often brings together horses from all over the country for the first time. Most trainers come to Durban for the winter for what has become known as the Champion Season and the best 3YO colts and geldings will be seen in action on Saturday at Greyville Racecourse.
Two horses have dominated the 3YO races in Cape Town and they are LINEBACKER and KOMMETDIEDING. The two were due to meet for the first time in the G1 Cape Derby over 2,000m but sadly KOMMETDIEDING suffered an injury and was withdrawn. LINEBACKER, trained by Vaughan Marshall, went on to win the Derby and followed that up with a victory in the G2 KZN Guineas over 1,600m at Greyville, running on well to get the better of stablemate SEEKING THE STARS by 0.6 lengths.
KOMMETDIEDING was unbeaten in four starts going into the KZN Guineas but was carried out badly on the turn which saw him drop to last. However, he produced a great finishing burst to run third, beaten just around two lengths by LINEBACKER.
He will be a better horse over 2,000m and with the run under his belt, could be the runner they all have to beat. He is from an “unfashionable” stable and it would be a great feat by H W J Crawford and daughter M Rix if the son of ELUSIVE FORT to win this G1 race. He will even be ridden by a lesser-known jockey in Sihle Cele, who has been aboard in all five starts. He is drawn barrier 8 of the 12 runners but over 2,000m, where they have a long back straight before they reach the turn, it should not pose too many problems.
The biggest threat must come from LINEBACKER. He is in good form and has a top jockey up in Grant van Niekerk. In fairness, LINEBACKER also suffered some interference in the KZN Guineas but it was minor in comparison to KOMMETDIEDING.
South Africa’s Triple Crown winner MALMOOS has had a tough season, and his trainer Mike de Kock has opted to give his charge a rest. The two next-best Johannesburg-based runners are COPPER MOUNTAIN and SECOND BASE, and they are expected to fill the third and fourth spots.
Gavin Lerena would have had the option of rides from the J A Janse van Vuuren yard and he has selected COPPER MOUNTAIN so one would assume the NOBLE TUNE gelding is the stable elect.
RUSSIAN ROCK beat LINEBACKER in the G1 Cape Guineas in December and he was another to suffer interference in the KZN Guineas. But as he was beaten by KOMMETDIEDING, he looks unlikely to turn the tables.
SELECTIONS: 8. KOMMETDIEDING, 6. LINEBACKER, 10. COPPER MOUNTAIN, 7. SECOND BASE & 1. RUSSIAN ROCK
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 8. KOMMETDIEDING, 6. LINEBACKER & 10. COPPER MOUNTAIN
S1-8: Multiple – 2. CHATTERTONS KEEPER, 6. GENTLEMAN’S WAY & 7. MR GONZALES
S1-9: Multiple – 1. SEEN THE LIGHT, 7. CAESURA & 2. JUSTAGUYTHING
S1-8 MR 80 Handicap
CHATTERTONS KEEPER may be the best in this tough race. This is a tricky MR 80 Handicap over 1,400m where the list of possible winners is a long one.
CHATTERTONS KEEPER comes from an in-form stable and although it has been some time since his only win, he has smart recent form over the same course and distance from deep draws. He has pulled a much better barrier this time around and should make a race of it.
GENTLEMAN’S WAY is back on his favoured turf track and his last win came over the same course and distance. He has the very-much in-form Muzi Yeni in the saddle.
MR GONZALES is highly rated by his stable but last time was never in the hunt when only beating one home. He is not the easiest temperament-wise but gets on well with his apprentice rider Jabu Jacobs who has ridden him to both of his victories.
GREENLIGHTTOHEAVEN has been costly to follow but did show promise early in his career and has been knocking at the door of late. He is the choice of champion jockey Warren Kennedy who had other options in the race. He likes to race handily but has pulled the outside gate which is not in his favour.
PREEMPTIVE STRIKE was deemed good enough to be shipped to Cape Town for their summer season and paid his way with a maiden win when raced in blinkers. He has had one sprint back and steps up to a more suitable trip. A worry is that the stable is cold.
TRYING TIMES is a Highveld raider who comes off a recent maiden win. He hails from the log-leading stable and has top rider, Gavin Lerena aboard.
VISTA NOVA was dropped in the deep end after his maiden win bumping two strong fields. He is down in class, but a deep draw is something of concern.
Trainer Tony Rivalland has high hopes for PRINCE OF TARANTO who he rates as ‘decent’. He was a close-up third over the same course and distance after his comfortable maiden win.
SELECTIONS: 2. CHATTERTONS KEEPER, 6. GENTLEMAN’S WAY, 7. MR GONZALES, 4. TRYING TIMES & 5. PRINCE OF TARANTO
S1-9 MR 68 Handicap
Bettors to SEEN THE LIGHT in this 1,200m MR 68 Handicap.
SEEN THE LIGHT comes from a yard that does not tend to race their horses too often and the 5YO has only had 12 outings. The gelding has been close-up at recent starts but is back on his best turf surface in this race. The stable is in form and with a top rider jumping from pole position you should get a big run for your money.
CAESURA was well fancied from a wide draw on the polytrack last run when taking on stronger. Down in class he still gets a 1lb rating drop and with a 9lbs claimer up he should be more than just competitive.
Luke Ferraris has stayed with CRUSADE’S STAR who was not far off the leading group last time out on the polytrack. The gelding comes from a canny yard and with a two-point rating drop he would not be a surprise winner.
JUSTAGUYTHING showed signs of coming to hand with the blinkers removed last time out. He has sometimes been costly to follow but appears to have found his feet again and, drawn barrier 2 off the inside fence, will give him an added advantage.
MOVIE MAGIC has been improving with each outing and comes from a yard that likes to set them up. He has been up against a touch stronger of late and does have a better draw this time around.
ANTIGONUS comes from a very much in-form yard and has also improved with the blinkers removed. He took on a division stronger last run and was making late headway.
GIMME A RAINBOW was long overdue his maiden win so comes into this race with a handy handicap rating. His maiden form was solid.
LORD CARO shed his maiden at his 30th start but seldom runs a race. However, his best form has been on the polytrack.
SELECTIONS: 1. SEEN THE LIGHT, 7. CAESURA, 2. JUSTAGUYTHING, 3. CRUSADE’S STAR & 8. MOVIE MAGIC
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