 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
15 out of 20 horses who finished first and second in last ten runs of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), second leg of Japanese Triple Crown, had started in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Crown, last time out, and it is reasonable to pick up top selections from the field of Satsuki Sho at Nakayama on 18th April.
International handicappers have given a rating of 120 for the performance of EFFORIA in Satsuki Sho, which he won by three lengths, and assess him as the co-highest rated 3YO in the world as of 9th May. And the winner of four races from same number of starts, including two starts at Tokyo Racecourse, should have inherited enough stamina to stay 2,400m from his sire EPIPHANEIA, winner of the G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) over 3,000m in 2013, and from his broodmare sire HEART'S CRY, winner of the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m in 2005.
While the pedigree of EFFORIA looks to be an encouraging factor for him, it could be a reason of uneasiness as well. EPIPHANEIA finished second to KIZUNA in Tokyo Yushun in 2013, HEART'S CRY finished second to KING KAMEHAMEHA in Tokyo Yushun in 2004, and SYMBOLI KRIS S, sire of EPIPHANEIA, finished second to TANINO GIMLET in Tokyo Yushun in 2002. What an unlucky pedigree, as far as Tokyo Yushun, he has! It is the battle for EFFORIA to break the Derby spell which his ancestors were held.
My second choice is TITLEHOLDER, who finished second to EFFORIA in Satsuki Sho. In contrast to EFFORIA, his sire DURAMENTE is winner of the Tokyo Yushun in 2015, KING KAMEHAMEHA, sire of DURAMENTE, is winner of Tokyo Yushun in 2004, and his broodmare sire, MOTIVATOR, is the winner of Derby Stakes in 2005. It is obvious that TITLEHOLDER is bred to win the Derby and I am sure he runs better at Tokyo on Sunday than he was at Nakayama six weeks ago.
3 out of 20 horses who finished first and second in the last ten runs of G1 Tokyo Yushun had started in G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai last time out, and my third choice is RED GENESIS, winner of G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai at Chukyo on 8th May. He is by DEEP IMPACT and out of a STORM CAT mare, which is the same mating as KIZUNA, who completed the double of Kyoto Shimbun Hai and Tokyo Yushun in 2013.
My fourth choice is STELLA VELOCE, third finisher in Satsuki Sho. His pedigree suggests he stays 2,400m, as he is by BAGO, winner of the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 2004, and he is out of a DEEP IMPACT mare.
Another attractive runner in the field is WONDERFUL TOWN, winner of the G2 Aoba Sho over the same course and distance as this race on 1st May. Although the winners of Aoba Sho have never won the Tokyo Yushun yet, I think he has potential to smash the jinx.
SELECTIONS: 1. EFFORIA, 14. TITLEHOLDER, 4. RED GENESIS, 11. STELLA VELOCE & 12. WONDERFUL TOWN
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