 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 World Pool Handicap
The opening race on the Derby Stakes Day at Epsom looks like a very open affair on paper with several runners holding solid claims.
KING FRANKEL is a logical place to start, given he's very lightly-raced and improvement is likely. He got off the mark at the fifth time of asking when winning a Pontefract maiden over 2,005m by 32 lengths and proved that was no fluke when a good second in a handicap over 2,000m at Newbury last time. There is plenty more to come from KING FRANKEL. He is trained by Mark Johnston who looks to have a strong hand in the race with CHASE THE DOLLAR and KING ZAIN.
Like KING FRANKEL, CHASE THE DOLLAR is out of the great FRANKEL and him too as one career win to his name. That came in an Ayr maiden over 1,445m but his breeding suggests he will be better over further and so that proved as he was only just touched off over 2,038m at Newcastle in a strong-field handicap last time.
KING ZAIN was a convincing winner of a Lingfield maiden over 1,400m in September 2020, but hasn't really built on that this year. He steps up markedly in distance here which looks a wise move given his breeding.
George Boughey's horses are absolutely flying at present and his FREAK OUT was a real eye-catcher last time over 1,600m at Newmarket. He stayed on at the finish suggesting the step up to 2,015m will suit and the form of that race looks solid too, with two of the horses that finished behind him winning subsequently.
Any horse trained by Roger Varian should be respected and GREATGADIAN looks an interesting contender. He's only had four career starts, but has shown plenty of promise, particularly on debut when he finished third to LA BARROSA and DERAB.
That's some of the strongest form on offer considering LA BARROSA has won a G3 since and was well-fancied for the G1 1,600m Irish 2000 Guineas, while DERAB is a leading contender for the G1 2,100m Prix du Jockey Club on Sunday.
PATIENT DREAM is trained by Ralph Beckett and he's another with an interesting profile. He got off the mark at the second attempt at Lingfield over 1,400m and was then a little disappointing in his two subsequent starts. He bounced back to form on his first start this season, though, with a taking win at Epsom over 1,703m where he stuck on well suggesting this extra 2,015m would suit. There is plenty of substance to the form as well with the second, third, fourth and eighth all having won since.
Finally, it's hard to know where we stand with the beautifully bred CAMELOT TALES. The son of CAMELOT has only had three career starts with his best performance coming at Redcar over 2,001m. He finished a long way behind leading Derby contender, JOHN LEEPER, last time at Newcastle over 2,038m, but better can be expected now tackling handicaps.
SELECTIONS: 2. KING FRANKEL, 6. FREAK OUT, 3. GREATGADIAN, 5. PATIENT DREAM & 4. CAMELOT TALES
S1-2 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Heading the field in the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 1,703m is MAAMORA who lines up with William Buick in the saddle. Buick partnered up with Charlie Appleby to take last year's renewal of this race with SUMMER ROMANCE, and while Appleby doesn't have a runner this year that can be Simon and Ed Crisford's gain.
The last time Buick and MAAMORA were seen together was at Sandown in the G3 1,600m Atalanta Stakes last August where the mare beat G1 winner BILLESDON BROOK by half a length.
NAZUNA, the mount of Andrea Atzeni, is one of four 3YO in the race and the Classic generation have won three of the last six runnings of this contest. The Roger Varian-trained filly was last seen running in the G1 1,600m Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland, and although finishing 10th of 14, she wasn't disgraced, and improvement can be expected on her seasonal return.
Another 3YO in the field is STATEMENT who was eighth behind MOTHER EARTH in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m last month. However, before that she was seen to better effect when finishing second to the highly rated ALCOHOL FREE in the G3 Fred Darling Stakes over 1,400m. It would be no surprise to see the filly perform better than last time, although there has to be a slight doubt about the trip.
Richard Hannon's KINGMAN mare POSTED proved a progressive type last season, beating MONTATHAM in a 1,600m Listed race at Sandown in September. She reappeared this term in the G2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket over 1,800m where she was a little keen and if settling better she should have more to offer.
One of only two arriving here with a win last time out is ILLYKATO who took home top honours in the Listed Conqueror Stakes at Goodwood over 1,600m last month. That race can be a useful pointer as three of the past 12 winners of the Princes Elizabeth Stakes have run in the same race prior, with two winning and one placing at Goodwood.
Looking at the rest of the field, a small chance could be given to William Haggas's TOMORROW'S DREAM who will be under the guidance of Tom Marquand. The pair were last partnered in a Listed event over 1,400m at Goodwood, the going was heavy that day and both of her turf wins have come on good ground, so the quicker conditions should suit.
LOTTIE MARIE is the other horse to arrive here on the back of a win when landing a handicap over 2,000m on Lingfield's polytrack in April. That success shows she has the stamina for this, although she is yet to win in four starts on the turf.
SELECTIONS: 2. MAAMORA, 7. ILLYKATO, 8. NAZUNA, 9. STATEMENT & 4. POSTED
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. MAAMORA
Selections – 7. ILLYKATO, 8. NAZUNA, 9. STATEMENT & 4. POSTED
S1-3:
Banker – 2. CENTURY DREAM
Selections – 9. MAXIMAL, 5. MARIE'S DIAMOND, 7. PRINCE EIJI & 3. DUKE OF HAZZARD
S1-3 Diomed Stakes
The G3 1,703m Diomed Stakes is back at Epsom having been staged at Newbury in 2020.
Last year's winner, CENTURY DREAM, is back in a bid to make history by becoming the first horse to win the race three times, having landed the 2018 and 2020 runnings. Simon and Ed Crisford's 7YO went on to G2 success after last season's victory, landing the Celebration Mile over 1,600m at Goodwood. He was well-fancied for the G2 1,600m Solonaway Stakes over 1,600m on his next start, but could only finish fifth, while he was equally disappointing when ninth in the G1 1,600m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot. Having failed to make an impact on his seasonal reappearance in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m, he's back in calmer waters here and should run well again.
MAXIMAL runs for Sir Michael Stoute, who won this two years ago with ZAAKI. Being a 3YO, MAXIMAL gets a handy weight allowance which could prove significant for a horse who has looked impressive this year when runner-up on his most recent efforts at Newbury over 2,000m and Chester over 2,064m. His last victory came in a novice at Sandown over 1,600m, so he could relish the step back down in trip. Having been second behind Godolphin's two Derby fancies in the past, the unbeaten HURRICANE LANE and ONE RULER, MAXIMAL has plenty of handy form in the book too.
PRINCE EIJI remains an interesting prospect despite not having won since his debut at Ascot over 1400m in 2018. However, Roger Varian's gelding looked impressive when only beaten a short head by OH THIS IS US in the Listed Paradise Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot last time.
In finishing second there, he beat the likes of DUKE OF HAZZARD and MARIE'S DIAMOND. The former won G2 and G3 races over 1,600m at Goodwood in August 2019 but wasn't able to add to those successes last season. Now back after a wind operation in January, he most likely needed the run in the aforementioned Paradise Stakes.
MARIE'S DIAMOND lines up for Mark Johnston, who last won this race back in 2003 with GATEMAN. The 5YO was second on his seasonal reappearance when beaten by MY OBERON in the G3 1,800m Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket. However, he failed to build on that reappearance at Ascot and needs to improve to be competitive here. MY OBERON ran a big race when third in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan recently, though, which shows MARIE'S DIAMOND has the form to be competitive.
OH THIS IS US has already been seen five times this season and has beaten the likes of DUKE OF HAZZARD, MARIE'S DIAMOND and PRINCE EIJI. However, that win at Ascot has been the only success and Richard Hannon's 8YO has struggled to make an impact in his four other appearances.
BELL ROCK looks to make it two from two this season under champion jockey Oisin Murphy after winning a 1,800m handicap at Newmarket. However, this is only the gelding's second time in Group company after finishing 10th in the 2019 G1 1,600m St. James's Palace Stakes at Ascot. He was a good winner of that Newmarket contest but this is a much more competitive race.
ESCOBAR is a well-travelled veteran who will be vying for a first victory since the 2019 renewal of the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot over 1,600m. He beat the G1-winning LORD NORTH in that success, but has since had wind surgery and has yet to finish better than third.
SELECTIONS: 2. CENTURY DREAM, 9. MAXIMAL, 5. MARIE'S DIAMOND, 7. PRINCE EIJI & 3. DUKE OF HAZZARD
S1-4 World Pool 'Dash' Handicap
Blink and you'll miss it – the World Pool 'Dash' Handicap holds the record for the fastest 1,000m race run in the world.
Since running in it for the first time in 2014, it has become virtually impossible to talk about the race and not mention CASPIAN PRINCE. Michael Appleby's 12YO has run in it six times, winning on three occasions, and he's back for yet another go. He clearly loves it at Epsom, but he hasn't been at his best in five starts this year and age may finally be catching up with him.
King Power Racing look to hold two good chances starting with STONE OF DESTINY. The 6YO has been highly tried in his career and this will be his 31st start, but he's become a regular in these big field handicaps and has often run well in them too. He was a good winner of a handicap at Doncaster over 1,130m last season and although he went up in the weights for that, he showed at Goodwood last time he's still feasibly handicapped. Andrew Balding's contender was just touched off that day and should run another solid race.
In the same ownership, SUNDAY SOVEREIGN looks an interesting contender. Well regarded as a 2YO, he was sent off favourite for the G2 1,000m Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2019, but didn't run up to form. Three below par runs followed, but he bounced back to his old self when second in a good 1,000m handicap at York last time and he should build on that.
ONLY SPOOFING makes the trip over from Ireland and based on an impressive three-length victory of a Navan handicap last time, he must enter calculations. It was hard not to be impressed by the way he put distance between himself and the rest of the field there and the drying ground will be in his favour.
MONDAMMEJ needs to improve on what he's shown so far this season, while LORD RIDDIFORD would need a career best.
RECON MISSION is interesting after a win over the same course and distance last time, although he didn't run well when last seen in this race, albeit off a much higher weight.
The 2019 winner, ORNATE, is unbeaten at the track and although he's now an 8YO, he still continues to run with great respect. He's finished in the top three in 30 of his 72 career starts and as he races off virtually the same weight as that win two years ago, he has to have a chance. Don't forget he got to within two-and-a-half lengths of the great BATTAASH at Goodwood over 1,000m, so he's more than capable of getting involved.
As well as SUNDAY SOVEREIGN, Tim Easterby also runs COPPER KNIGHT and he's another who could run well. Since winning in a Listed contest over 1,000m in 2019, COPPER KNIGHT had slid down the weights dramatically and it took 18 starts for him to get his head in front again. That took place at York over 1,000m and although he finished fifth on his next start over the same course and distance, he was beaten less than two lengths and there could be more to come again here.
SELECTIONS: 4. SUNDAY SOVEREIGN, 9. ONLY SPOOFING, 1. STONE OF DESTINY, 8. COPPER KNIGH & 3. ORNATE
S1-5 Derby Stakes
The world's greatest flat race is the ultimate test of the thoroughbred. The winner will require not only stamina but also sufficient speed to hold his place throughout the race. He'll also need the agility to cope with the undulations and the camber up the straight.
Nobody knows the Epsom examination paper better than Aidan O'Brien, who has won six of the last nine runnings. O'Brien leaves nothing to chance and usually spreads his cards across the table, so as to ensure a strong pace.
But with GEAR UP being a solid stayer, who wants a relentless gallop and seems guaranteed to be towing the field along, O'Brien throws just the one dart at the bullseye - the red-hot favourite BOLSHOI BALLET - the first time he has run just the one since 2004.
BOLSHOI BALLET ticks all the right boxes, having cruised around in both the G3 Ballysax Stakes and the G3 Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown.
It takes an exceptional colt to win both those 2,000m dress-rehearsals, but O'Brien did it with GALILEO, sire of BOLSHOI BALLET and the first of the trainer's record eight Derby victories in 2001.
The ground has been the key to BOLSHOI BALLET this spring, and he has looked a revelation. He struggled in three runs in the mud last year, disappointing in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud in France over 2,000m in October, but he hit the line hard at Leopardstown and his pedigree screams stamina, so the longer trip is not a worry.
THIRD REALM is the one who has crept under the radar. It took him a while to get into top gear when he broke his maiden over 2,045m at Nottingham, but he was going away at the finish and would have trebled his winning distance had the race been 2,400m. That was evident when he stepped up in trip for the Derby Trial Stakes over 2,321m at Lingfield, winning impressively and never looking stronger than at the finish.
The more the ground dries the better the chance of MOHAAFETH, who travels so well on fast going. He would need to improve on his Listed Newmarket Stakes victory over 2,000m, but it was the manner of the success rather than the opposition he beat that impressed. Remember, SHAAMIT came straight from a maiden when winning the Derby in 1996 for the same trainer, William Haggas, and MOHAAFETH is making similar progress.
JOHN LEEPER, now the mount of Frankie Dettori, is the best bred colt in the race, being by FRANKEL out of SNOW FAIRY, the G1 Epsom Oaks heroine here in 2010. He also won a Listed prize over 2,000m at Newmarket, but he needs to settle better and this could be too big a test at this stage of his career.
The 1,600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas winner MAC SWINEY has stamina to prove and has shown all his best form on softer ground, as has GEAR UP, who looked laboured in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m at York.
One who could outrun his odds is Joseph O'Brien's SOUTHERN LIGHTS, who was repeatedly checked in the Derrinstown G3 Stud Derby Trial over 2,000m and is best judged on his impressive Leopardstown maiden victory over 2,000m.
SELECTIONS: 2. BOLSHOI BALLET, 10. SOUTHERN LIGHTS, 7. MOHAAFETH, 11. THIRD REALM & 5. JOHN LEEPER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. BOLSHOI BALLET
Selections – 10. SOUTHERN LIGHTS, 7. MOHAAFETH, 11. THIRD REALM & 5. JOHN LEEPER
S1-6:
Banker – 3. SOTO SIZZLER
Selections – 8. GROUP ONE POWER, 7. WAIT FOR THE LORD, 1. LOST EDEN & 5. MIDNIGHTS LEGACY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. BOLSHOI BALLET, 10. SOUTHERN LIGHTS & 7. MOHAAFETH
S1-6: Multiple – 3. SOTO SIZZLER, 8. GROUP ONE POWER & 7. WAIT FOR THE LORD
S1-7: Multiple – 7. ATALANTA'S BOY, 12. OPEN WIDE & 1. DANZENO
S1-6 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
This handicap, run over the same distance of Derby Stakes, was won two years ago by SOTO SIZZLER. He has switched stables since, joining David Menuisier from William Knight, having missed the whole of last season. The way he has come back from his enforced break suggests he is as good as ever.
He again showed his liking for this track when narrowly beaten by GROUP ONE POWER in the handicap over this trip in April and he is weighted to reverse that form. His latest run when last of seven at Newmarket three weeks ago is not worth worrying about as he failed to stay the 2,800m distance on ground softer than ideal.
The soft ground was also against GROUP ONE POWER when he finished runner-up over 2,392m at Ascot last month. Andrew Balding's 4YO is at his best when making the running and he is unlikely to get an easy time in the lead with plenty of competition for the pacesetter's role.
LOST EDEN has landed both his wins from the front. Those victories came over 2,000m on Lingfield's polytrack and he does need to prove he's as good on turf. His disappointing effort in an Ascot Listed contest over 2392m came on soft ground and it was discovered after the race that he had an irregular heartbeat.
WAIT FOR THE LORD landed her only victory over 2,000m on the polytrack at Lingfield but she was far from disgraced when fourth in a Haydock G3 over 2,359m last week. She is completely unexposed over this distance and on turf. The prospect of a strong pace that she hasn't had in many of her races also suggests she could find a good bit of improvement.
The likely good early gallop should also suit MIDNIGHTS LEGACY. He moved well when runner-up over 2,840m at Salisbury but he didn't appear to see the distance out as strongly as the winner, OPERA GIFT. The fast ground might not have helped and he does have to prove he is at his best on a quick surface.
The ground won't bother THE TRADER who battled on well to beat in-form HOCHFELD over 2,615m at Hamilton early last month. The drop to 2,414m on a softer ground didn't suit him when returned that same track a week ago but he does look like he might need to tackle longer distances now.
KOEMAN is weighted to be competitive and while he hasn't shown much form this year, there have been valid excuses. The soft ground was against him when tailed off at Ascot over 2,392m last month and he couldn't get into the race from the rear over 3,300m at Newbury in April. Mick Channon's runner has his ideal conditions this time.
SELECTIONS: 3. SOTO SIZZLER, 8. GROUP ONE POWER, 7. WAIT FOR THE LORD, 1. LOST EDEN & 5. MIDNIGHTS LEGACY
S1-7 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
DANZENO, though now in his 11th year, epitomises what these sprint handicappers are all about.
He has been second or third in nine of his last 10 races, yet his consistency means he gets no respite from the official assessor. It is two years since he won at Haydock over 1,200m on similar ground, and he has been off the track since October, but he runs well fresh so that is not a negative and he looks sure to again be in the mix.
LEXINGTON DASH and ABERAMA GOLD, who finished first and second at Doncaster over 1,202m last month, are both 4YO and less than half the age of DANZENO.
LEXINGTON DASH is improving fast in recent starts, and he will carry 128lbs, 2lbs less than the previous start, he could well be a player.
Epsom is not an easy track, but it should play to the strengths of ATALANTA'S BOY, who has won four races at Goodwood, a course which also favours the speed horses. He recovered from a slow start to win well over 1200m there on his seasonal reappearance. That race will have tightened him up and provided he breaks on terms he ought to be hard to beat.
OPEN WIDE, who ran well to finish fourth in that Goodwood over 1,200m race, also looked as if that first run back would bring him on. He relishes a fast which he looks sure to get here. Amanda Perrett, who trains OPEN WIDE, also runs TINTO, who has yet to finish in first three this year. However, he has been racing over 1,400m and also now drops to his lowest mark since he won on similar fast ground at Yarmouth over 1,200m 20 months ago.
DESERT SAFARI runs here rather than the more valuable World Pool 'Dash' Handicap over 1,000m earlier. He has won four races on the all-weather over 1,200m, but his recent Goodwood success over 1,000m, his first on turf, was impressive.
KIMIFIVE runs his best races at Goodwood and he made a pleasing reappearance there last month, finishing an unlucky third behind TINTORETTO over 1,400m. He is even more effective over 1,200m. The booking of champion jockey Oisin Murphy is another plus.
EJTILAAB's only previous run over 1,200m resulted in a winning debut at Doncaster two years ago. He has not been getting home from the front over longer distances since, though he did win over 1400m on the polytrack at Chelmsford City in his younger days.
SELECTIONS: 7. ATALANTA'S BOY, 12. OPEN WIDE, 1. DANZENO, 4. DESERT SAFARI & 3. LEXINGTON DASH
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