 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King’s Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Anne Stakes
Where else to start than with PALACE PIER?
The John & Thady Gosden-trained superstar, PALACE PIER, has only registered one defeat in his eight career starts and that came here at Ascot last October in the G1 1,600m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes where he lost a shoe and didn’t like the bad ground.
At this meeting last year he won the G1 1,600m St James’s Palace Stakes in good style before confirming himself as European top miler with a commanding G1 win at Deauville over the same distance. He couldn’t have been more impressive in both of his starts this season, breezing away from his rivals in the G2 Sandown Mile Stakes at Sandown first time up and again in the G1 1,600m Lockinge Stakes. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and searches for his seventh win in the race which he first won back in 1990.
Fourth at Newbury’s G1 Lockinge Stakes was LORD GLITTERS who stayed on impressively. This will be his tenth start at Ascot and he has already contested this race twice before, finishing first and second. The David O’Meara-trained gelding has been in good form of late and was last seen winning back in March in the G1 Jebel Hatta at Meydan over 1,800m.
Also seen in the Lockinge Stakes was LOPE Y FERNANDEZ who finished down the field in eighth. He was tentatively handled that day and the faster ground at Ascot will definitely be appreciated by the 4YO. It would be no surprise to see some improvement on his return here and if anyone can find that improvement it’s the master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien.
SIR BUSKER clearly has a taste for Ascot as last year he won the Silver Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m before coming back to contest the G1 1,600m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes where he finished a respectable fourth with LORD GLITTERS behind in sixth. Oisin Murphy is booked to take the ride on SIR BUSKER and, while not having won this race before, the champion jockey is certainly more than capable of getting the tactics right.
Rounding off the selections is POGO who could run a big race. His seasonal reappearance run in the Listed King Richard III Stakes over 1,400m was very impressive when beating the talented MUMS TIPPLE. The Charles Hills-trained son of ZEBEDEE also competed in the Lockinge Stakes and, while not making an impact that day, he will relish these quicker conditions. He could surprise a few at what will be a huge price.
SELECTIONS: 6. PALACE PIER, 3. LOPE Y FERNANDEZ, 4. LORD GLITTERS, 10. SIR BUSKER & 7. POGO
S1-2 Coventry Stakes
DHABAB has strong claims in the opening 2YO race of Royal Ascot, the G2 1,200m Coventry Stakes.
He took a bit of time to get the hang of what was required on his debut, but came home well in the closing stages to win nicely over 1,200m at Leicester a couple of weeks ago. That stiff finish seemed to suit him so he should enjoy Ascot and he looks to have plenty of gears. Robert Havlin was on board John & Thady Gosden’s youngster last time out and he keeps the ride.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Coventry Stakes a record nine times and his THE ACROPOLIS must have a decent chance. He took a big step forward from his debut fourth at the Curragh when an impressive winner of Listowel maiden on 6th June. His blend of speed and stamina should be ideal for this sort of race.
Aidan O’Brien’s youngest son Donnacha O’Brien also appears to have claims with MASSETO. He overcame trouble to win a Navan maiden in April and he again failed to find a smooth passage when runner-up in a Curragh G3 over 1,200m on soft ground last month. The way he saw out the distance in good style last time suggests this stiff test should be ideal and, although he has carried his head awkwardly at times, that looks down to inexperience rather than any worrying attitude.
American trainer Wesley Ward has a fine record with his 2YO at Royal Ascot. He’s won eight juvenile races at this meeting since he first started sending runners across 12 years ago, but all over them came in 1,000m contests. It’s interesting he has chosen this race for fast filly KAUFYMAKER instead of the more obvious Queen Mary Stakes. She was impressive on her debut over 900m at Keeneland in April but there has to be a doubt about her seeing out this more testing 1,200m.
BERKSHIRE SHADOW had GISBURN back in fourth when making a winning debut over the 1,031m at Newbury in April. He did well to win that race as he missed the break, but he was well on top in the finish. The step up in distance should suit him so there are plenty of reasons to expect a good show from Andrew Balding’s runner.
SELECTIONS: 5. DHABAB, 2. BERKSHIRE SHADOW, 12. THE ACROPOLIS, 10. MASSETO & 17. KAUFYMAKER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 5. DHABAB
Selections – 2. BERKSHIRE SHADOW, 12. THE ACROPOLIS, 10. MASSETO & 17. KAUFYMAKER
S1-3:
Banker – 16. WINTER POWER
Selections – 2. BATTAASH, 5. KING’S LYNN, 1. ARECIBO & 12. LIBERTY BEACH
S1-3 King's Stand Stakes
There were times when we needed a psychiatrist to get inside the head of BATTAASH, but since having a wind operation two years ago Europe’s most talented sprinter has been virtually invincible.
BATTAASH has only been beaten once in his last six races and that was on unsuitably soft ground at ParisLongchamp over 1,000m. He has twice been runner-up in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes and finally got his just reward 12 months ago making all and winning impressively. Charles Hills’ 7YO then followed up at Goodwood and York over 1,000m. However, he had an injury during the winter which held up his progress, so he hasn’t had the smoothest of preparations.
That may not stop him, but he faces some smart fillies in WINTER POWER and LIBERTY BEACH who both have phenomenal early pace and could set BATTAASH a stiff task with his penalties. WINTER POWER, in particular, spells danger in receipt of 10lbs. It was not until the mid-September last year that the penny dropped with WINTER POWER, who has since won four of her five races.
She is all speed and in a first-time tongue-tie produced a career-best performance at York over 1,000m last month. That form got a boost when the runner-up ATALIS BAY won easily at Sandown on 12th June.
WINTER POWER is now up in grade so needs to show she can dazzle us on the big stage, but her trainer compares her favourably with LOCHNAGER, the family’s champion sprinter from 1976.
Like WINTER POWER, LIBERTY BEACH, third to BATTAASH in this race last year, is a young pretender eager to knock the champ off his throne. She was caught close home in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m, at ParisLongchamp and she only just held on a neck length at Haydock over 1,000m last month, so this stiff uphill finish is the worry.
KING’S LYNN, only once out of the first three in eight races, could outrun his odds. He likes to come from off the pace, as does Newmarket winner ARECIBO, and this race could be set up for the closers.
EXTRAVAGANT KID, who won the G1 Al Quoz Sprint over 1,200m on Dubai World Cup Day, looks the pick of the two American raiders, but, like the G1 July Cup winner OXTED, he might find this shorter trip too sharp.
SELECTIONS: 16. WINTER POWER, 2. BATTAASH, 5. KING’S LYNN, 1. ARECIBO & 12. LIBERTY BEACH
S1-4 St James's Palace Stakes
The big clash for the 3YO colts comes in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m.
G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m disappointment BATTLEGROUND hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field at Newmarket and has to be respected. The son of WAR FRONT was sent of favourite for the first classic of the season but could only beat one of the 14 runners home. Master Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has more wins at Royal Ascot than any other handler, reported that his charge didn’t handle Newmarket’s undulations.
With natural progression from his 2YO form, which included winning the G2 Vintage Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood and finishing second in the G1 1,600m Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in USA Keeneland, he would be right in the mix. On the strength of his form already this season, POETIC FLARE is the one to beat.
The 2000 Guineas winner from Newmarket has gone on to finish a commendable sixth in the 1,600m G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains at ParisLongchamp, where the race wasn’t run to suit, and second by a short head in the 1600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas. His claims of becoming the fourth 2000 Guineas winner to follower up in this contest in the last 10 years are clear for all to see.
POETIC FLARE so far had the beating of LUCKY VEGA, who finished third in the 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas, but they were separated by half a length at Newmarket.
Despite concerns from trainer Mrs John Harrington about the ground last time, LUCKY VEGA handled conditions well and looks set to encounter his favoured fast conditions again here. He needs to find a bit of improvement to get his head in front but that’s entirely possible.
One of the eyecatchers from the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket was CHINDIT. He cut through half of the field to finish fifth to hit the line very strongly and has been kept fresh for this. Quick ground is a positive and he could be right in the mix if taking another step forward.
Godolphin have a strong bunch of 3YOs this season and HIGHLAND AVENUE is certainly one to keep an eye on. Two wins over this distance on the polytrack at Kempton set him up nicely for a Listed success over 1,800m at Newmarket and many expected him to follow up when sent off favourite for the Listed Heron Stakes over 1,600m last time out. He travelled into the race nicely and was last off the bridle but failed to put the race to bed and was swamped late by closers on the stand’s side. He’s worth keeping on side and could well spring a surprise.
SELECTIONS: 6. LUCKY VEGA, 1. BATTLEGROUND, 11. POETIC FLARE, 3. CHINDIT & 4. HIGHLAND AVENUE
S1-5 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
Stamina is the key to this marathon contest over 3,991m and Mark Johnston’s ROCHESTER HOUSE could be the answer. This 5YO was fifth 12 months ago but stayed on strongly after having to sit and suffer from his wide draw. He normally likes to race up with the pace and was narrowly denied by JUST HUBERT in a 4,100m handicap at Goodwood last July. His final start of last season was an impressive win at Ascot over 3,200m and it’s clear he enjoys the track. The 3,727m Chester Cup last time didn’t play to his strengths, but prior to that he put in a decent reappearance effort at Newbury over 3,300m so we know he’s in good form.
Like at Goodwood, there shouldn’t be much between him and JUST HUBERT who is another strong stayer.
Trained in combination by William Muir and Chris Grassick, the 5YO ran well to be third on heavy ground in a 3,241m handicap at Haydock last month. That will have set him up perfectly for this and he still looks fairly handicapped.
Willie Mullins has won four of the last nine renewals of this race with three of them ridden by Ryan Moore. The superstar jockey gets aboard M C MULDOON and that alone will ensure he goes off favourite or near the head of the market.
Anything Mullins brings to Royal Ascot should be respected, but all of this horse’s best form has come on soft ground which has to be a slight concern. He also saddles RAYAPOUR and ROYAL ILLUSION who both warrant plenty of respect. Slight preference is for the latter who will love the ground and returns to the Flat having been kept fit over hurdles.
George Boughey has made an incredible start to his training career and the young handler saddles LOSTWITHIEL in this.
Gelded last summer, the 4YO made a winning career debut in a 2,325m novice event at Bath in September. His three runs this season have resulted in a win 2,446m and two seconds 2,800m, but he looks like the sort who will enjoy another step up in distance. Inexperience is an obvious worry, although he could still be very well handicapped.
SELECTIONS: 17. ROCHESTER HOUSE, 18. JUST HUBERT, 11. LOSTWITHIEL, 8. M C MULDOON & 13. ROYAL ILLUSION
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 17. ROCHESTER HOUSE
Selections – 18. JUST HUBERT, 11. LOSTWITHIEL, 8. M C MULDOON & 13. ROYAL ILLUSION
S1-6:
Banker – 13. PATRICK SARSFIELD
Selections – 4. SOLID STONE, 7. DAWAAM, 9. FELIX & 2. FOREST OF DEAN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 17. ROCHESTER HOUSE, 18. JUST HUBERT & 11. LOSTWITHIEL
S1-6: Multiple – 13. PATRICK SARSFIELD, 4. SOLID STONE & 7. DAWAAM
S1-7: Multiple – 2. SALDIER, 12. GLOBAL STORM & 6. SLEEPING LION
S1-6 Wolferton Stakes
The Gosden stable have bagged this prize four times since 2011, so where better to start than with FOREST OF DEAN. He won competitive handicaps on turf at Goodwood over 2,000m and York over 2,100min the summer of 2019 and this stiff uphill finish will play to his strengths.
He has been campaigned on the polytrack so far this year, outgunning FELIX in the G3 Winter Derby Stakes over 2,000m at Lingfield. He was only beaten one and a half lengths by the classy BANGKOK when returning to that track back in April and he would have finished even closer but for suffering interference.
However, FELIX, who had beaten FOREST OF DEAN twice previously, has since belied big odds when rattling home from the back to finish third to the smart LORD NORTH in the G1 1,800m Dubai Turf at Meydan. This extra distance suits FELIX well and stable confidence suggests that he can extend his record against FOREST OF DEAN to 3-1 in his favour. FELIX looks to have more of a gear-change than FOREST OF DEAN, who lengthens rather than quickens at the end of his races.
Irish challenger PATRICK SARSFIELD has been a revelation since being gelded, improving his official mark from 86 to 113 and trainer Joseph O’Brien reckons he will eventually make his mark at the top level. He failed by only a head to give lumps of weight to an improving horse in REVE DE VOL in a Listed race at the Curragh on 2nd June. Furthermore, PATRICK SARSFIELD, who had already won the G3 Meld Stakes at Leopardstown over 1,800m and been placed in even higher grade at ParisLongchamp and Munich, was returning there from an eight-month break, so he can be expected to progress again.
SOLID STONE won well in a Listed over 1,600m at Windsor last month, but he can boast even better form over this distance, with a Newmarket success, plus a couple of wins on the polytrack, on his CV.
DAWAAM has only beaten one horse in two runs on turf, but he has won four races on the polytrack and, having been gelded and had a wind operation in the winter, he has looked a different horse at home. He came from off the pace to win a slowly-run race at Chelmsford City over 2,000m in April, and the form got a boost when the runner-up won next time.
SELECTIONS: 13. PATRICK SARSFIELD, 4. SOLID STONE, 7. DAWAAM, 9. FELIX & 2. FOREST OF DEAN
S1-7 Copper Horse Stakes (Handicap)
Irish champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins has a fine record in staying handicaps at Royal Ascot and his smart hurdler SALDIER has strong claims in this 2,831m contest. He was incredibly impressive over 2,591m at Listowel on 6th June on his first Flat start since joining Mullins in 2018.
The way he won suggests he could be very well-handicapped, and Ryan Moore has been snapped up for the ride. He had been running with credit in Group races in France, so he has the potential to be better than this grade on his return to the Flat.
GLOBAL STORM improved for the extra distance when upped to 2,800m for the first time at Newmarket last month. He showed a decent change of pace to nail LOSTWITHIEL in that competitive soft-ground handicap. Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin hope will have no problem with the likely quicker conditions and he was fine on the track when third in the Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap) at Royal Ascot last year. He is obviously unexposed over this 2,831m distance, and he should appreciate the demands of the big field.
SLEEPING LION won his first start after joining Roger Charlton from James Fanshawe when successful over 3,198m on Kempton’s polytrack in April. He is at his best with plenty of time between his races, so it is in his favour that he’s not been seen since. The likely good gallop will help and he will appreciate the fast ground.
GOLD MAZE was well beaten on his debut for his new trainer Roger Varian but that came on very soft ground. His best form when trained in Ireland came on a much quicker surface and he was thought good enough to run in the G1 Derby Stakes last year. He will love the step up to 2,831m for the first time and he has the potential to be really well weighted.
HOCHFELD must come into the picture given his excellent record on fast ground. He beat unexposed Ascot Stakes (Handicap) contender LOSTWITHIEL over 2,800m at Nottingham in April and came within a neck of following up at Hamilton over 2,615m. His third in the Chester Cup over 3,727m in May points to an abundance of stamina but this 2,831m distance suits him better and trainer Mark Johnston’s horses often thrive in this type of competitive race.
SELECTIONS: 2. SALDIER, 12. GLOBAL STORM, 6. SLEEPING LION, 9. GOLD MAZE & 11. HOCHFELD
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