 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales's Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Queen Mary Stakes
Opening the card with a bang on day two is the 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes, a red-hot contest for the world’s fastest fillies.
American trainer Wesley Ward has won three of the last six renewals and he also won it back in 2009 with his first runner in the race. It’s fair to say that Ward likes to fire a big bullet at this contest and is represented this year by TWILIGHT GLEAMING. She opened up impressively to win by a wide margin on her last start over 1,000m at Belmont Park and has to be respected.
At the other end of the spectrum is QUICK SUZY who represents a yard that’s yet to have a runner at Royal Ascot.
Gavin Cromwell, best known for his success over the Jumps than on the Flat, clearly feels he finally has one good enough to tackle a 2YO contest at the year’s premier meeting. The speedy daughter of 1,000m G1 King’s Stand Stakes winner PROFITABLE won impressively over 1,200m in a maiden at the Curragh two starts back. She was then second in a G3 Fillies Sprint Stakes over 1,186m at Naas on her most recent start but didn’t settle very well that day and better is expected. There’s a slight question mark over conditions, with the ground set to be much quicker than what she’s encountered so far in Ireland, but the trainer is yet to sound any concerns.
NYMPHADORA won the 1,000m Listed Marygate Stakes, which looked a strong renewal, in good style last time out and has to be on the shortlist. She’s precociously bred, has a solid piece of form in the book and should be right in the mix if taking another step forward.
The once-raced ILLUSTRATING is an exciting filly for Karl Burke.
A number of those that finished behind NYMPHADORA in the Marygate Stakes were also beaten soundly next time out by Burke’s filly over 1,000m at Catterick Bridge, so the form of her sole start looks strong. That win also came on good to firm ground and her breeding suggests that quick conditions will suit.
One that’s a little more experienced with three runs under her belt, including two wins over 1,019m and 1,009m, is BEAUTIFUL SUNSHINE. Rookie trainer George Boughey has been on fire with his juveniles this season and she looks the best of his very exciting bunch.
SELECTIONS: 19. TWILIGHT GLEAMING, 18. QUICK SUZY, 15. NYMPHADORA, 11. ILLUSTRATING & 2. BEAUTIFUL SUNSHINE
S2-2 Queen's Vase
The roll of honour for the 2,841m Queen’s Vase includes Gold Cup winners ESTIMATE and STRADIVARIUS, so we need to focus on the big stables here.
Nobody has a better record than Aidan O’Brien, who has won four of the last six runnings and has three strings to his bow. Ryan Moore rides one-time Derby possible WORDSWORTH, a full-brother to KEW GARDENS, who won this race in 2019. He is lazy at home, so Aidan felt he would come on for his Curragh maiden win over 2,000m in April.
He did, too, only to be worn down close home by stablemate SIR LUCAN when stepping up to 2,600m for a Listed race at Navan. He’s a real galloper and should be in his element around here.
However, we should not rule out KYPRIOS. Seamie Heffernan claimed he was up there with the best of O’Brien’s Classic colts after he had ridden him to victory at Cork over 2,036m in April.
Inevitably, there were initial disappointments after KYPRIOS then finished only fourth in the Lingfield’s Listed Derby Trial Stakes over 2,321m. But the fact that the one-two were THIRD REALM and subsequent Derby hero ADAYAR puts a different complexion on that race.
KYPRIOS also has plenty of stamina in his pedigree so should improve for the step up in trip.
Of Joseph O’Brien’s pair, preference is for RULING, whose pedigree suggests he should appreciate this step up in trip. He has been brought along steadily and has twice been placed over 2,400m at Leopardstown this year.
Godolphin look to have a likely lad in KEMARI, who cost 400,000 gns as a yearling. He is from the same family as St Leger Stakes winner MILAN so will relish this stamina test.
Unraced at two and gelded before he had set foot on the track, KEMARI bumped into a smart colt in MOVIN TIME on his belated debut at Newmarket over 2,000m last month. KEMARI duly won next time at Yarmouth over 2,295m. It was only an average maiden, but he could not have been more impressive and looks a useful stayer in the making. The extra distance will also suit him.
STOWELL, who represents John & Thady Gosden, might not yet be another STRADIVARIUS, but he has done nothing wrong so far. He was beaten a whisker in controversial circumstances on his Lingfield debut over 2,400m on polytrack and then made short work of second-rate opposition at Ascot over 2,392m on turf.
SELECTIONS: 14. WORDSWORTH, 6. KEMARI, 7. KYPRIOS, 11. RULING & 12. STOWELL
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 14. WORDSWORTH
Selections – 6. KEMARI, 7. KYPRIOS, 11. RULING & 12. STOWELL
S2-3:
Banker – 6. DOUBLE OR BUBBLE
Selections – 2. LADY BOWTHORPE, 3. QUEEN POWER, 4. AGINCOURT & 9. LAVENDER’S BLUE
S2-3 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
Improving DOUBLE OR BUBBLE could easily continue her winning streak in this 1,610m G2 fillies’ prize.
She won both her races last season having been successful in a Sandown maiden over1,400m before following up on her handicap debut at Ascot over 1,400m. The way she quickened up to impressively land a 1,400m handicap at Newmarket on her return in April suggests she’s getting better all the time. The step up to 1,610m shouldn’t be a problem for Chris Wall’s filly and she looks well up to this level.
LADY BOWTHORPE is a filly at the top of her game. She saw off QUEEN POWER and LAVENDER’S BLUE in the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket on her comeback run in May. Her second behind top-class PALACE PIER in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury was another personal best performance. The fast pace in that race did set it up for her hold-up style but it was still an excellent effort.
QUEEN POWER was only beaten a head by LADY BOWTHORPE in the G2 Dahlia Stakes and she was hugely impressive when upped to 2,051m in the G2 Middleton Stakes at York last month. She tends to take time to settle in her races and that has been holding her back. The return to 1,610m will help in that but she does tend to struggle to find the necessary pace in the closing stages when racing over this distance.
AGINCOURT had QUEEN POWER back in third when beaten a head by subsequent dual G1 winner NAZEEF in this race 12 months ago. She was beaten even less on her return to action over 1,600m at Goodwood when she was nailed right on the line by ILLYKATO. That was her first run since undergoing a breathing operation so David O’Meara’s runner should be spot on for this contest.
LAVENDER’S BLUE was a well-beaten seventh in this race last year but she has had a couple of prep runs this time. She only has half a length to make up on LADY BOWTHORPE and QUEEN POWER on their Newmarket form over 1,800m and she is probably slightly better over this shorter distance.
SELECTIONS: 6. DOUBLE OR BUBBLE, 2. LADY BOWTHORPE, 3. QUEEN POWER, 4. AGINCOURT & 9. LAVENDER’S BLUE
S2-4 Prince of Wales's Stakes
Last year’s winner LORD NORTH is favourite to become only the fourth horse to win the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes twice.
This 5YO failed to fire in the mud in the G1 1,993m Champion Stakes last October but fared better when back on a sounder surface when fourth in the G1 2,400m Breeders’ Cup Turf. That trip probably stretched him, and he relished the drop back in distance when landing the G1 1,800m Dubai Turf comfortably by three lengths on his return in March. He will be tough to beat if in the same form with Frankie Dettori back in the saddle again.
LOVE could not have been more impressive last season, claiming three G1 wins from her three starts this season when landing the 1,000 Guineas over 1600m, Oaks over 2,405m, and Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m. She was campaigned solely against fillies and mares last year, and this will be a different test entirely on her seasonal reappearance.
She is one of two entries in the race from master trainer Aidan O’Brien, and the drop in trip shouldn’t be a problem.
The other Ballydoyle entry, ARMORY, won the G2 2,064m Huxley Stakes on his reappearance so has race fitness on his side. However, this will be a tough ask on potentially the fastest surface he has encountered.
One runner who will relish conditions is the mare AUDARYA who makes her seasonal reappearance after landing the G1 1,900m Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf when last seen in action. She was very progressive last season and proved at USA Keeneland that she relished fast ground.
SANGARIUS will have to reverse the form with a couple of these if he is to get his head in front, but connections have opted to throw him in the deep end here rather than tackle potentially easier assignments. Losing out to LORD NORTH in the G3 2,038m Brigadier Gerard Stakes last season, the son of KINGMAN had to settle for second place when facing up to ARMORY in the G2 2,064m Huxley Stakes.
SELECTIONS: 3. LORD NORTH, 6. AUDARYA, 7. LOVE, 1. ARMORY & 5. SANGARIUS
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
This cavalry charge up this straight race is arguably the toughest betting puzzle we have to solve at the entire meeting. With a full field, the runners are likely to split into two, maybe even three groups.
Traffic congestion is inevitable, so maybe not surprising that only two favourites have won in the last 25 years. Four times in the last eight years there has been a long-priced winner of this equine lottery.
Among those quoted at big odds today comes Scottish challenger WHAT’S THE STORY, who is having his fourth consecutive tilt at the prize. His best effort here was his fourth in 2018 on fast ground, and underfoot conditions were similar when he won twice over 1,600m at York the following season.
The 7YO has not lost his fire either. He was runner-up in the Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes up the straight 1,600m at Doncaster in March and was then unlucky to be squeezed out of the places at York over 1,575m having been repeatedly baulked.
The stats suggest we need to look for the improvers, with five of the last six winners being 4YOs.
That age group includes FINEST SOUND, who has been aimed at this race ever since he was runner-up in the Britannia Stakes over this same course and distance here 12 months ago. FINEST SOUND was maybe rusty after eight months off when beaten on his reappearance at Nottingham over 1,668m. He duly went one better at Haydock over 1,634m, winning cosily, and we know both the Ascot track and fast ground play to his strengths.
HAQEEQY won the Lincoln over 1,600m at Doncaster in spectacular fashion, having been stuck in a pocket behind a pack of horses. However, he was very disappointing in a Listed race over 1,600m here last time.
BRUNCH and GROVE FERRY finished second and eighth respectively in the Lincoln. Both of them have chances of reversing the Doncaster form. It takes a smart horse to win after blowing the start, but GROVE FERRY did just that in a 1,515m contest in Chester last time and his stable are in flying form.
BRUNCH, placed in four of his five races since he won at York over 1,600m last August, pays for that consistency but is again one for the shortlist.
FAME AND ACCLAIM was narrowly beaten in his last two races over 1,600m, both at Curragh. He has since switched from Joseph O’Brien to Les Eyre and drier ground might suit him.
SELECTIONS: 5. WHAT’S THE STORY, 16. FINEST SOUND, 9. GROVE FERRY, 6. BRUNCH & 18. FAME AND ACCLAIM
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 5. WHAT’S THE STORY
Selections – 16. FINEST SOUND, 9. GROVE FERRY, 6. BRUNCH & 18. FAME AND ACCLAIM
S2-6:
Banker – 28. RUTHIN
Selections – 26. GOLDEN BELL, 24. TIPPERARY SUNSET, 1. ADMIRAL D & 5. ARMOR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 5. WHAT’S THE STORY, 16. FINEST SOUND & 9. GROVE FERRY
S2-6: Multiple – 28. RUTHIN, 26. GOLDEN BELL & 24. TIPPERARY SUNSET
S2-7: Multiple – 4. STUNNING BEAUTY, 5. DREAMLOPER & 17. FFION
S2-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
American trainer Wesley Ward has won this race twice in the last 12 years and his RUTHIN has a great chance of making it number three.
She showed some superb pace to blast away from her rivals and win by six lengths on her debut over 1,100m at Keeneland in April. That speed could easily burn off this field and, as her win came over slightly further than this 1,000m, she should have no trouble seeing out the race under Frankie Dettori.
No filly has won this race for 20 years but not many have tried in recent times and most of the more fancied ones usually head for the G2 Queen Mary Stakes.
Ward also runs GOLDEN BELL with top American jockey John Velazquez in the saddle. She also won impressively at Keeneland on her debut in April when making all the running for five and a quarter length victory over 900m. The lightning pace she showed that day could make Ward’s two fillies hard to catch.
TIPPERARY SUNSET was a smooth winner over 1,006m on his debut at Hamilton. He improved on that performance when following up in a 1,000m Beverley conditions race last month. Both of those races were run on softer ground but he should be just as good on this faster surface. His sire ARDAD won this race five years ago and he’s made an excellent start to his stud career.
Irish raider ADMIRAL D, also by first-season sire ARDAD, made a promising debut when fourth at Fairyhouse last month and he looked really useful when winning at Listowel just eight days later.
Those races were over 1,200m and 1,255m on soft ground so he faces completely different conditions in this contest. His pedigree suggests there’s a fair chance he will be even better on the quicker ground and he didn’t look short of speed in either of his two races.
ARMOR only beat three rivals when making a winning debut over 1,003m at Doncaster in April but he went through the race like a smart youngster. The form has worked out really well as the two horses to chase him home have both won afterwards. The ground was on the fast side when he was successful at Doncaster and he looks well suited to a quick surface.
SELECTIONS: 28. RUTHIN, 26. GOLDEN BELL, 24. TIPPERARY SUNSET, 1. ADMIRAL D & 5. ARMOR
S2-7 Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap)
The inaugural running of the Kensington Palace Stakes looks a wide open affair with a number of the fillies and mares involved closely matched on ratings.
Sir Michael Stoute-trained runner’s should always be respected at Royal Ascot and his LIGHTS ON looks a progressive type. The 4YO is two from two this season with wins at Nottingham over 1,668m and then most recently over 1,600m at the same course. She finished a short-head in front of DREAMLOPER that day and although she is clearly improving, a significant rise in the weights makes her life harder here.
Given she went down by just a short-head at Ascot last time and now has a significant pull in the weights, there is a strong case to suggest that DREAMLOPER will be able to reverse that Ascot form with LIGHTS ON. Her conqueror that day got first run and with her trainer, Ed Walker, in such good form, plenty looks in her favour for a bold showing. She can handle all types of ground so the quick conditions should hold no fears.
Whenever a horse wins their first two races by an equivalent of 11 ½ lengths, much is expected of them, and STUNNING BEAUTY was no different. Saeed bin Suroor’s filly was very impressive at Newmarket and Leicester over 1,600m and 1,648m respectively and those taking victories saw her sent off a short price for the G2 Cape Verdi at Meydan over 1600m. She ran no sort of race there, though, and finished a distant 35 lengths behind in last. However, she bounced back to form last time at Doncaster where she showed a really good attitude to tough it out when a number of challengers came upsides her. She’s still very lightly raced and there could be more improvement to come from the daughter of SHAMARDAL.
FFION is another who has plenty of scope for improvement given she’s only had four career starts. She was just reeled in last time at Haydock over 1,434m and there is likely more to come. The big question mark over her is the ground as she’s never raced on anything nearly as quick as the surface she’ll likely encounter at Ascot.
SO I TOLD YOU is much more exposed having had nine career starts so far. Formerly trained by Richard Hughes, the daughter of GLENEAGLES is unbeaten in both starts since joining the Joseph O’Brien yard. She was an impressive five-length winner of a Sligo handicap over 2,114m last time, but again there must be a few question marks over genuinely quick ground with her best form coming under softer conditions.
SELECTIONS: 4. STUNNING BEAUTY, 5. DREAMLOPER, 17. FFION, 1. LIGHTS ON & 6. SO I TOLD YOU
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