 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Norfolk Stakes
Thursday’s action kicks off with the G2 Norfolk Stakes which will be run at a ferocious pace over 1,000m.
Wesley Ward has won this twice before in 2013 and 2018 and his LUCCI looks a strong contender to make it a hat-trick. The colt made all when winning on debut by three lengths at Belmont Park over 1,000m and is clearly another one of Ward’s who is all about pace. He partners up with John Velazquez, who will be hoping to have his fourth wins at the Royal Ascot.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race three times and a victory this year would make him the joint-most winning trainer in its history. He saddles CADAMOSTO, who was an impressive winner under Ryan Moore on debut on the polytrack at Dundalk over 1,000m. He’s sired by NO NAY NEVER – one of the horses Ward won the race with – and is sure to improve from that Dundalk win.
If the rain does arrive that would be a concern given he’s been withdrawn twice because of soft ground.
NAVELLO is the most experienced in the field with five runs under his belt – three of those have been wins over 1,019m, 1,055m and 1,014m. There were excuses for his run in the Listed National Stakes at Sandown over 1,009m last time, where his trainer, George Boughey, confirmed he was unsuited by the soft conditions.
INSTINCTIVE MOVE runs for Clive Cox and was a real eye-catcher when winning on debut at Bath over 1,009m. He took a bit of time to get the hang of things, but when he did he flew home in taking fashion. This is a big step up from that, but he’s another promising type and there is surely lots of improvement to come.
William Haggas has his string in fine form at the moment, and his unbeaten SECOND WIND is another intriguing contender. He’s won both races over 1,038m and 1,000m, including a solid performance under a penalty last time at Salisbury. His trainer has won this race twice before and although his runner showed signs of inexperience last time, he’s clearly got lots of ability.
SELECTIONS: 9. LUCCI, 14. SECOND WIND, 4. INSTINCTIVE MOVE, 2. CADAMOSTO & 11. NAVELLO
S1-2 Hampton Court Stakes
Late Derby scratching MOHAAFETH should gain some consolation in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes.
Trainer William Haggas made the last-minute decision to withdraw the son of FRANKEL from the Epsom Classic after heavy rain turned the ground softer than ideal. He had been well fancied for the Derby having made rapid strides with a hat-trick of wins this season. The third of those came when destroying some useful rivals, including SECRET PROTECTOR, with a performance of real quality in the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2,000m on quick ground in May.
He has the potential to be top class so he should be hard to beat.
MOVIN TIME has yet to be tested at this G3 level but he looked pretty smart when quickening up in great style to beat subsequent winner KEMARI in a 2,000m Newmarket maiden last month. He had finished second behind smart prospects REBEL’S ROMANCE and MITHRAS in the 1,605m novice races on Newcastle’s tapeta last season, so it’s easy to believe Roger Varian’s colt has the class for a race like this.
ONE RULER finished sixth in the G1 Derby Stakes without convincing he enjoyed the tricky Epsom track or that he saw out the 2,405m distance. He had earlier filled the same position in the 2,000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket so this in-between distance might be just what he wants but he does have to shoulder a penalty for last season’s G3 win (1,600m) at Newmarket. There’s rain forecast for the morning of the race and that wouldn’t do the Godolphin runner’s chance any harm.
Charlie Appleby also runs SECRET PROTECTOR, who was no match for MOHAAFETH in the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 2,000m but the small field might not have played to his strengths. His earlier second behind smart stablemate HIGHLAND AVENUE in the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket gives him place claims.
NOTRE BELLE BETE didn’t race last season and he’s been handed some stiff tasks this year. He made his debut in the Listed Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes over 1,400m and he ran a cracking race to finish fourth behind 2,000 Guineas winner POETIC FLARE. His subsequent efforts have been solid and he has scope to improve now he tackles 1,993m for the first time.
SELECTIONS: 3. MOHAAFETH, 4. MOVIN TIME, 1. ONE RULER, 8. SECRET PROTECTOR & 5. NOTRE BELLE BETE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 3. MOHAAFETH
Selections – 4. MOVIN TIME, 1. ONE RULER, 8. SECRET PROTECTOR & 5. NOTRE BELLE BETE
S1-3:
Banker – 4. DIVINELY
Selections – 11. NOON STAR, 7. GLORIA MUNDI, 6. ESHAADA & 2. ANNERVILLE
S1-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
Form-lines leading into one horse could prove crucial to finding the winner of this year’s G2 2,392m Ribblesdale Stakes. After a record-breaking 16-length romp in the G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom by SNOWFALL in early June. The third that day, DIVINELY, lines up here, as does NOON STAR, who chased her home at York in the build-up to that contest.
NOON STAR finished second behind the impressive Oaks winner in G3 Musidora Stakes in mid-May and she has been kept fresh by her legendary trainer Sir Michael Stoute, everything points to a big run.
As a daughter of GALILEO out of G1 2,400m-winning mare, MIDDAY, the step up to 2,392m looks sure to suit too.
While no match for the runaway winner, DIVINELY finished a good third at Epsom and may well have taken second with a more favourable run. Having met traffic problems, she was forced out into the centre of the track while all the best ground was on the stand’s side and that could have cost her multiple lengths. There’s also plenty of rain in the forecast for Thursday and, judging by her efforts on a softer surface so far, that won’t inconvenience her if it does materialise.
The dominant Aidan O’Brien has trained either the winner or runner-up in this contest on six of the last ten occasions and has to be fancied to do so again.
GLORIA MUNDI and ESHAADA briefly locked horns in the final 200m over a 2,000m contest at Newbury last month and it was the latter who narrowly came out on top. Both will need to progress to challenge the likes of NOON STAR and DIVINELY but they’re improving fillies with plenty of potential.
ARISTIA was in third behind the aforementioned pair at Newbury, while TWISTED REALITY was back in fourth. Both would need to come on leaps and bounds to challenge here, and while that’s not entirely out of the question, ANNERVILLE looks better value when it comes to the places.
She was a comfortable winner of a 2,000m maiden at Leopardstown on her last start and should relish the step up to 2,392m. Two of the horses who finished behind her that day have come out and won since, while a whole host of those beaten have gone on to be placed.
SELECTIONS: 4. DIVINELY, 11. NOON STAR, 7. GLORIA MUNDI, 6. ESHAADA & 2. ANNERVILLE
S1-4 Gold Cup
When YEATS won his fourth Gold Cup in 2009, few thought the feat would ever be matched, but in STRADIVARIUS we have a horse who is fancied to do just that. And in all honesty, that looks a more than likely outcome.
He did what he had to when winning the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m on his seasonal reappearance and given he’s beaten most of his rivals here before, he’s the most likely winner.
One small concern would be if the ground got very testing as he has struggled on a soft surface before, most notably in the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,190m at Ascot last October.
The horse that won that race by over seven lengths, TRUESHAN, is very much the new kid on the block in the staying division and he is clearly deserving of a go at this.
He ran well in defeat on his first start this term in the G3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester behind JAPAN, where he was giving weight away and the trip was also on the short side. Alan King’s runner needs to prove he stays this far, but everything suggests he will.
Trainer Mark Johnston has a very good record in the race, and he’ll be hoping his SUBJECTIVIST can give him a fourth victory.
The son of TEOFILO has really thrived since being stepped up in trip, as shown by his two most recent victories at G1 and G2 level. He won the Prix Royal-Oak over 3,100m at ParisLongchamp by two lengths and then showed that was no fluke by bolting up in the Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200m. Again, this is a step into the unknown trip, but he’s improving all the time and seems to be versatile when it comes to ground.
SPANISH MISSION looks ready for a tilt at this after an impressive win in the G2 Yorkshire Cup Stakes over 2,771m. Extended trips seem to be much more to his liking these days as shown by a taking victory in the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m last season, but he does need to improve now tackling G1 company.
TWILIGHT PAYMENT gave Joseph O’Brien one of his biggest days to date as a trainer when winning the G1 Melbourne Cup over 3,200m in 2020. He runs twice this season at Curragh over 2,000m and Leopardstown over 2,800m and has seemingly been outpaced on both occasions, so this test extra stamina test looks much more up his street.
SELECTIONS: 4. STRADIVARIUS, 12. SUBJECTIVIST, 5. TRUESHAN, 3. SPANISH MISSION & 6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
S1-5 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
Nobody rides this Britannia Stakes better than Jamie Spencer, who won this race twice in the last five years.
Spencer has been on a strict diet all week to ride the much-fancied AIR TO AIR for rookie trainer George Boughey, whose horses have been in terrific form.
AIR TO AIR is a bit quirky, so needs a quiet rider, and the former champion timed his challenge perfectly when steering the gelding to victory at Doncaster over 1,600m recently. AIR TO AIR has always worked like a Group horse at home and is now fulfilling his potential.
Roger Varian-trained KHALOOSY took this prize last year, and the trainer has two solid chances again with DINOO and RAADOBARG.DINOO will be a big player if he breaks on terms. In all his three races so far he has been slow at the start. On his first run for the stable at Wolverhampton over 1,433m, he was again sleepy at the stalls, but he finished off his race strongly to get third, suggesting that this step up in trip will suit him well.
The mud-loving RAADOBARG comes here on a high, being 3-3 this season. He was hugely impressive in a competitive handicap at Haydock over 1,634m, and if the forecast rain arrives he would have to be in the mix.
QAADER was runner-up in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m here last year, so he is a class performer. His trainer feels that he will ultimately prove a 2,000m horse but has the speed for this stiff 1,600m.
PEROTTO had a fruitful first season, winning twice, over 1,000m and 1,200m. He has only been out of the money once in 10 races, and he got the 1,400m well when trying the trip for the first time at Goodwood last week. He now goes into unknown territory over 1,600m, but he is as hard as nails and won’t be disgraced.
You would not normally associate Aidan O’Brien with this race, but he did win it with WAR ENVOY in 2015. That colt was rated 104, and his representative, HOROSCOPE, is on 101, suggesting he has similar ability. He ran well to finish third in a valuable handicap over 1,600m at Curragh last month. The ground was testing there, so rain would be a big plus.
SELECTIONS: 29. AIR TO AIR, 17. DINOO, 7. QAADER, 8. PEROTTO & 2. HOROSCOPE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 29. AIR TO AIR
Selections – 17. DINOO, 7. QAADER, 8. PEROTTO & 2. HOROSCOPE
S1-6:
Banker – 2. SISKANY
Selections – 9. KONDO ISAMI, 4. NAGANO, 11. FIRST LIGHT & 3. LORD PROTECTOR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 29. AIR TO AIR, 17. DINOO & 7. QAADER
S1-6: Multiple – 2. SISKANY, 9. KONDO ISAMI & 4. NAGANO
S1-7: Multiple – 16. ALDAARY, 15. PERSUASION & 7. LORD CAMPARI
S1-6 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
This 2,392m handicap for 3YOs is a typically competitive Royal Ascot handicap.
A number of these horses are stepping up to this distance for the first time but that shouldn’t be a problem for DUBAWI colt SISKANY, trained by the in-form Charlie Appleby.
A reappearance win over 2,000m at Windsor on good-to-firm ground was followed by a success at Sandown over 1,990m on soft, so we know he’ll handle whatever happens with the weather.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick claimed this prize in 2015 with SPACE AGE and they look to have a good chance of landing it again.
Mark Johnston has won this race six times and he saddles KONDO ISAMI and SOAPY STEVENS in his bid this year.
Preference would be for KONDO ISAMI who showed a good attitude to win on his seasonal reappearance at York over 2,371m) before being narrowly denied at Doncaster over 2,905m.
We know stamina won’t be an issue for this son of GALILEO and horses from the Johnston yard have to be greatly respected in this race.
NAGANO comes here seeking a hat-trick after winning at Nottingham and Newcastle over 2,045m and 2,038m respectively last month having only made his debut in April. Although light on experience, he is clearly an exciting prospect and will be towards the head of the market. Another stepping up in distance, he has to be one for the shortlist for Roger Varian who had a great Royal meeting 12 months ago.
Frankie Dettori is always the star at Royal Ascot but you have to go back to 1997 for the last time him or John Gosden won this race.
The pair combine with FIRST LIGHT who won a 1,955m soft ground maiden at Ripon by 12 lengths last month. We know from his last effort that if the rain turns the ground soft he won’t have a problem with conditions.
Ralph Beckett’s LORD PROTECTOR is unbeaten after three starts, with his last two victories coming over 2,000m at Windsor in April and 1,983m at Salisbury in May. He has a wide draw to contend with, but eight of the last ten winners have come from a double-figure gate so stall 20 may not be insurmountable.
SELECTIONS: 2. SISKANY, 9. KONDO ISAMI, 4. NAGANO, 11. FIRST LIGHT & 3. LORD PROTECTOR
S1-7 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
Unexposed 3YO ALDAARY has strong claims in the 1,400m Buckingham Palace Stakes.
He won both his races over 1,203m and 1,200m last season and picked up where he left off when making a winning return over 1,400m at Ascot in May. Having missed the break he came through strongly in the closing stages for an impressive victory on his first run since undergoing a breathing operation. Things didn’t go as smoothly when attempting to make it four wins out of four over 1,400m at Goodwood. He was poorly positioned at the rear of the field and he just had too much ground to make up down the straight when third behind RHOSCOLYN. This big field handicap over Ascot’s straight 1,400m should be much more to his liking.
Last season was pretty disappointing for PERSUASION but he showed what he is capable of when making a winning return to action over 1,434m at Haydock in April. That was a competitive handicap and, although it was run on fast ground, he is quite versatile with regards to the conditions.
LORD CAMPARI set a scorching gallop in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury last month on his first run of the season when he predictably faded into sixth behind top class PALACE PIER. The drop in distance to 1,400m is an interesting move that could be the key to Roger Varian’s runner and, if the forecast rain turns the ground soft, it would help his chances.
TOMFRE would also love the weather forecast to be correct as he rattled up a hat-trick of wins on very soft ground at the end of last season. He was a bit too fresh when runner-up in a 1,434m Haydock Listed contest in May and he did well to finish runner-up behind VOLATILE ANALYST over 1,400m at York last time out considering he came from much further back than ideal.
BLUE MIST has a decent record over this course and distance. He is a real 1,400m specialist so it’s not hard to forgive his comeback run at Newbury over 1,600m, which was his first run since having a breathing operation, when he missed the break and pulled hard in the early stages. His win in the prestigious handicap over 1,400m at this track last season means he’s entitled to plenty of respect.
SELECTIONS: 16. ALDAARY, 15. PERSUASION, 7. LORD CAMPARI, 3. TOMFRE & 13. BLUE MIST
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