 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Albany Stakes
Few juvenile fillies have made a bigger impression than FLOTUS when she made a winning debut in soft ground at Goodwood last month.
FLOTUS, showing all the speed of her G1 winning sire, STARSPANGLEDBANNER, moved like a gazelle throughout the race. From half-way she cruised through the gears, eventually producing a pulsating burst of speed to pull clear and win nearly five lengths. She is a filly with size and scope and she looked very professional at Goodwood, so rain or no rain she ought to prove very hard to beat.
Not that FLOTUS will find this an easy assignment as there are three of her opponents who were equally impressive first time out.
One was HELLO YOU, who clocked a fast time when beating an above-average field on tapeta at Wolverhampton over 1,218m. She, too, knew her job as she took command early in the straight and streaked clear to win by six and a half lengths.
There aren't many better-bred fillies in training than Aidan O'Brien's PRETTIEST, a daughter of DUBAWI out of Coolmore's triple G1 winning race mare ALICE SPRINGS. PRETTIEST lived up to that pedigree when making all on her debut at Navan over 1,147m, where she was in control throughout and did just enough to hold off the more-experienced favourite LOPES GOLD. She looks another with a big future and is highly rated at Ballydoyle.
No trainer has had more 2YO winners this season than George Boughey, whose CACHET was yet another to produce an electrifying debut at Newmarket over 1,200m last month. This breeze-up purchase left her rivals chasing shadows leaving the dip, and, despite still looking green, she stretched clear to win by five and a half lengths. CACHET’s owners Highclere T’Bred Racing won this race with MEMORY in 2010, so this has been the target ever since Newmarket.
Stablemate OSCULA might not have been as spectacular as CACHET but she is still a filly with plenty of potential. She will find this stiff 1,200m completely different to the downhill dash that she encountered at both Brighton over 1,195m and Epsom over 1,203m. However, OSCULA showed big improvement when winning the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom, and she found no trouble coping with the rain-softened ground and won easily by three lengths. There is no doubt that she is a sharp filly who will not go under without a fight.
SELECTIONS: 6. FLOTUS, 9. HELLO YOU, 12. PRETTIEST, 2. CACHET & 11. OSCULA
S2-2 King Edward VII Stakes
Often known as the ‘Ascot Derby’, the G2 King Edward VII Stakes has been a bit of a graveyard for favourites in recent years with just two successful markets leaders in the past 10 years.
ALENQUER will hope to buck that trend and based on his sole run this season, there is every chance he could do. That’s because William Haggas’ colt beat subsequent Epsom Derby winner ADAYAR in the G3 Classic Trial at Sandown over 1,990m and although he wandered around in the closing stages, he was well on top. He kept on well at the finish suggesting this step up to 2,392m will suit, and makes him the one to beat.
GEAR UP finished a long way behind ADAYAR in the G1 Derby Stakes, but had plenty of solid form as a 2YO. The most notable of those was a short-neck victory in the G1 2,000m Criterium de Saint-Cloud in France. That came on heavy ground, but he did win a G3 1,400m good ground race at York, so seems pretty versatile when it comes to conditions.
The famous colours of Godolphin won this back-to-back in 2017 and 2018 and they are responsible for YIBIR this time around. Charlie Appleby’s 3YO runner is one of the more experienced in the field having run seven times so far, but hasn’t quite built on the promise he showed last season. He ran well to finish third to ALENQUER in the aforementioned G3 Classic Trial at Sandown, but was disappointing in the Dee Stakes at Chester over 2,064m where the application of sheepskin cheek pieces didn’t seem to work. He’s been gelded since a below par run at Goodwood and connections will be hoping that brings about some improvement.
The step up in trip looks ideal for TITLE following his win at Yarmouth over 2,295m last time. Roger Varian’s runner showed a real good attitude to fend off a well-regarded rival that day and there is bound to be more improvement to come on just his fourth career start.
Given he’s trained by Aidan O’Brien, you have to respect THE MEDITERRANEAN.
He’s only been seen three times so far but was impressive when taking a Leopardstown maiden over 2,400m on his seasonal bow. The son of GALILEO got quite outpaced in the Listed race over 2,400m last time, but was doing his best work at the finish and there is surely more to come.
SELECTIONS: 7. TITLE, 2. ALENQUER, 6. THE MEDITERRANEAN, 1. GEAR UP & 8. YIBIR
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker –7. TITLE
Selections – 2. ALENQUER, 6. THE MEDITERRANEAN, 1. GEAR UP & 8. YIBIR
S2-3:
Banker – 21. SUESA
Selections – 13. CAMPANELLE, 3. DRAGON SYMBOL, 11. SUPREMACY & 5. JUMBY
S2-3 Commonwealth Cup
The sixth running of the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m looks an intriguing contest on paper and it’s to see SUESA heads the market.
The Francoise Rohaut-trained 3YO is unbeaten in four career starts in France and this year she’s taken two G3 wins convincingly, the Prix Sigy over 1,100m and the Prix Texanita over 1,200m. She’s won all four starts by a combined nine lengths and only on debut has another horse finished half-length of her. With plenty of rain forecast on Friday, conditions could be ideal for the daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER and she looks the one to beat.
Another strong contender is Wesley Ward’s CAMPANELLE.
She’s a familiar face to Royal Ascot having won the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m last year under Frankie Dettori. Later that season she went over to France and landed the G1 Prix Morny over 1,200m before unsuccessfully attempting a step up in trip in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1,600m. She showed last year that she can handle Ascot’s straight track as well as cut in the ground.
Last year’s renewal was won by the partnership of Adam Kirby and Clive Cox, and they are aiming to win it again with SUPREMACY. The colt has won three of his five starts, including last season’s G1 Middle Park Stakes and G2 Richmond Stakes both over 1,200m. However, he disappointed in his reappearance this term when last of eight in the G3 Pavilion Stakes at Ascot at 1,200m. Clive Cox had no explanation for the performance, but he may have needed the run and can go better here.
JUMBY comes into the race off the back of an impressive handicap win at Newmarket over 1,200m. He was denied a clear run when third on his reappearance at Newmarket and dropped down to 1,200m for his two starts this season, he has looked highly competitive. He is one that would prefer a sounder surface, so connections hope the forecasters have got it wrong.
Archie Watson saddles DRAGON SYMBOL who has won four of his five starts from 1,006m to 1,218m this year after being unraced as a 2YO. An interesting prospect, he was second last time out in the Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m and still has plenty of potentials.
SELECTIONS: 21. SUESA, 13. CAMPANELLE, 3. DRAGON SYMBOL, 11. SUPREMACY & 5. JUMBY
S2-4 Coronation Stakes
PRETTY GORGEOUS looks good for the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m.
Joseph O’Brien’s filly was among the best 2YO last season, recording the third of her three wins in the G1 Fillies’ Mile over 1,600m at Newmarket when MOTHER EARTH, SHALE and impressive G1 Oaks Stakes winner SNOWFALL were all behind. All of her victories came on soft ground and her two defeats both came when runner-up behind SHALE on much faster surfaces over 1,400m at Leopardstown and the Curragh.
She was forced to miss the G1 1000 Guineas due to a training setback but she ran really well when seventh behind EMPRESS JOSEPHINE in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m. Forced to race wide from the worst draw, she never had any cover and is open to considerable improvement with that run behind her.
EMPRESS JOSEPHINE flew home to get up right on the line in the Irish 1000 Guineas. The heavy ground clearly suited Aidan O’Brien’s filly but she does look ready for a step up in distance and Ascot’s round course might not be ideal.
She is still improving having only made her debut when successful at Naas in March so has come a long way in a short space of time. The forecast rain should also help bring her stamina into play.
Aidan O’Brien also runs 1000 Guineas winner MOTHER EARTH.That Newmarket Classic, run in early May, did not look a strong race for a G1 but she did back it up by finishing second in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp in mid-May. She had looked rather exposed at the end of her 2YO campaign and she might not have as much improvement in her as some of her rivals.
NOVEMBA could not have been much more impressive when making all the running to land the G2 German 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Dusseldorf in May. The more rain that falls the better chance she will have and this German raider should not be underestimated.
This is a big jump in class for POTAPOVA after her effortless victory in a 1,400m novice race at Redcar in May. She is bred to be smart and her trainer Sir Michael Stoute must think she is very good to head straight for this G1 contest.
SELECTIONS: 10. PRETTY GORGEOUS, 2. EMPRESS JOSEPHINE, 6. MOTHER EARTH, 7. NOVEMBA & 9. POTAPOVA
S2-5 Sandringham Stakes (Handicap)
Frankie Dettori has an amazing record in this race and seeks an eighth success with KESTENNA, who enjoyed two wins on the all-weather over 1,729m and 1,600m earlier this year.
True, she was later beaten back at Kempton over 1,600m, but the winner, LILAC ROAD, was subsequently only just denied in Listed company at Goodwood by only short length. We can put a line through KESTENNA's disappointing turf debut in another Listed race at York over 1,575m as she was stuck wide all the way up the straight.
In contrast to Dettori, Aidan O'Brien, not regularly seen in handicaps, is looking for his first win in the race with top weight FRIENDLY. She is still a maiden, but has been knocking at the door, having finished in the frame in five of her eight races. O’Brien felt her inexperience would stand this beautifully-bred filly in good stead in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m. FRIENDLY started at huge odds, but she produced a career best performance, beaten only three lengths into sixth place, and she now drops down a few grades.
GLESGA GAL took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper when winning twice over 1,433m at Wolverhampton. She has taken a hike in the ratings, but, like most of the LOPE DE VEGA progeny, she loves a bit of ease in the ground. The forecast rain would definitely enhance the chance of GLESGA GAL, who was only beaten half a length in testing conditions in a decent novice at Yarmouth over 1,203m last year.
SAMOOT was favourite for the second of GLESGA GAL’s Wolverhampton wins, but she could never strike a blow from a wide draw. She is better than that, as showed by winning previously over 1,433m and 1,394m at Wolverhampton and Salisbury.
Jamie Spencer has ridden the winner of this race four times, and is hopeful of making it five on PRADO, who was a useful 2YO, finishing second in the G3 Prestige Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood. PRADO made a pleasing return after seven months off over 1,594m here in April, being beaten only less than four lengths in fourth after losing all chance at the start.
SELECTIONS: 1. FRIENDLY, 14. GLESGA GAL, 5. KESTENNA, 11. PRADO & 22. SAMOOT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 1. FRIENDLY
Selections – 14. GLESGA GAL, 5. KESTENNA, 11. PRADO & 22. SAMOOT
S2-6:
Banker – 9. AADDEEY
Selections – 13. QUICKTHORN, 18. VALYRIAN STEEL, 4. MIRANN & 8. SCARLET DRAGON
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 1. FRIENDLY, 14. GLESGA GAL & 5. KESTENNA
S2-6: Multiple – 9. AADDEEY, 13. QUICKTHORN & 18. VALYRIAN STEEL
S5-7: Multiple – 15. EQUALITY, 14. MO CELITA & 2. BEDFORD FLYER
S2-6 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
Progressive 4YOs have dominated the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes over the years.
This 2,392m handicap provides the perfect opportunity for the slightly later blooming types to take advantage of a lenient mark, and often the winner will have only had a handful of career starts.
7YO SCARLET DRAGON was an exception to the rule last year, but we could see a much more typical result this time around with the likes of AADDEEY, QUICKTHORN and VALYRIAN STEEL all lining up with nice profiles.
AADDEEY has two wins to his name from five starts, once over 2,045m as a 3YO and then last time out when romping home to score by four-and-a-half lengths over 2,400m. He stretched away from a decent field with the minimum of fuss and should take this step up in class in his stride.
QUICKTHORN couldn’t have been more impressive at Haydock last time, drawing away by eight-and-a-half lengths. The handicapper has given him a big hike in the rating for that effort, but with champion jockey Oisin Murphy booked again and the fact he’ll handle soft ground, he should run another big race.
Though slightly more exposed than some of his rivals after 11 starts, MIRANN could still be in the mix. His three runs so far this season have come over 1600m, 2,027m and 2,000m which would have been on the sharp side for him, so he’s an interesting contender back up in trip. He’s another that would appreciate a drop of rain.
With four wins from six starts, five of which he’s started favourite for, VALYRIAN STEEL has plenty going for him.
As a 3YO he won twice over 2,000m, once on the turf and once on the all-weather, while his two wins this season have both come over 2,399m on polytrack. His dam handled soft ground too which is another positive if the rain materialises.
Returning to last year’s winner SCARLET DRAGON and it’s hard to overlook a horse of his consistency. He certainly won’t be peaking as an 8YO, but he could still challenge for the places.
SELECTIONS: 9. AADDEEY, 13. QUICKTHORN, 18. VALYRIAN STEEL, 4. MIRANN & 8. SCARLET DRAGON
S2-7 Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap)
The 1,000m Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes, first ran last year, was won by ART POWER, a progressive type who has since gone on to contest Group races.
The key to finding this year’s winner could be in looking for one with a similar profile and Charles Hills’ EQUALITY is one such possibility. A son of EQUIANO, who twice landed the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m at this meeting, he comes into this lightly raced with just the three runs under his belt. One of those was an emphatic win in a novice event at Wolverhampton over 1,019m on his last start, and he is certainly open to further improvement now switched back to turf.
MO CELITA has to be respected. The Adrian Nicholls-trained filly has stamina in abundance, so if conditions deteriorate it will bring that stamina into play. She comes into this on the back of five straight wins between 1,000m and 1,200m since joining the Nicholls yard. Equally important is the fact she’s a versatile type having registered those successes on ground ranging from good-to-firm to heavy, and a bold show can be expected with Oisin Murphy taking the ride.
BEDFORD FLYER arrives here in good form having won his last start in a York handicap over 1,000m, and the Les Eyre-trained colt recorded three wins over the same distance last season.
Having finished second to BEDFORD FLYER on his last start, NOMADIC EMPIRE will set out to reverse that form and he ran well in some decent races as a 2YO. He was a close third in a Listed event at York over 1,000m last August and then went on to finish second in another Listed race at Ayr in September, again over the 1,000m trip. Both of those efforts came on ground with a bit of a cut and if running to the level he did last season then it would be no surprise to see him there at the finish.
Rounding off the selections is SIGNIFICANTLY representing the Karl Burke yard. He has been runner up the last twice at Newmarket over 1,200m and Hamilton over 1,006m and he has always been well regarded as he contested Listed and G3 races over the 1,000m trip in his juvenile season. However, he has only managed to get his head in front once in 11 career starts so sneaking into the places might be his best hope.
SELECTIONS: 15. EQUALITY, 14. MO CELITA, 2. BEDFORD FLYER, 1. NOMADIC EMPIRE & 8. SIGNIFICANTLY
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