 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Diamond Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Chesham Stakes
The clouds have formed over the track and the rain started to come down. It remains to be seen how it will affect the track on Saturday and which horses will benefit most, but it is surely in the back of most trainers’ and punters’ minds.
POINT LONSDALE has to be a strong fancy going into this Listed contest over 1,400m. He was an impressive winner when going well clear inside the final 200m at the Curragh over 1,400m on soft ground. The son of AUSTRALIA’s debut hinted he could have a big future and if that performance is anything to go by, he sets the mark here.
Aidan O’Brien is also the leading trainer in the race, saddling five winners since 1999, including the winner of last year’s renewal BATTLEGROUND.
The last horse to win the Chesham Stakes for Godolphin was the mighty PINATUBO in 2019. They also look to have a strong contender in NEW SCIENCE who was impressive on debut, this time at Yarmouth over 1,403m. He finished strongly and was eased down at the finish, beating REACH FOR THE MOON by one-and-a-half lengths. He’ll come on from his debut and there shouldn’t be too much between him and the favourite.
SWEEPING is an interesting contender for trainer Archie Watson. Having finished second to DHABAB at Leicester over 1,200m earlier this month, a horse who was sixth in the G2 1,200m Coventry Stakes earlier this week. On breeding the step up in trip should suit and he is again partnered by Hollie Doyle.
Michael Bell saddles GREAT MAX, who was another winner on debut, this time at Newbury over 1,300m. Although a little green he finished with a flourish to win impressively and he is another who can go well.
Looking to give Andrew Balding his first winner in the race is MASEKELA. A strong winner on debut at Goodwood over 1,200m, the colt raced freely but stormed home on soft ground. He’s likely to face some give underfoot again on Saturday which is a positive.
SELECTIONS: 4. POINT LONSDALE, 3. NEW SCIENCE, 7. SWEEPING, 1. GREAT MAX & 2. MASEKELA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 4. POINT LONSDALE
Selections – 3. NEW SCIENCE, 7. SWEEPING, 1. GREAT MAX & 2. MASEKELA
S1-2:
Banker – 12. NAVAL CROWN
Selections – 10. MUTASAABEQ, 9. MEHMENTO, 4. CREATIVE FORCE & 7. KHARTOUM
S1-2 Jersey Stakes
Seven of the last nine winners of the Jersey Stakes at 1,400m had previously run in one of the 2,000 Guineas Stakes, whether it be the English, Irish or French version.
That stat points to the chance of NAVAL CROWN after his fourth behind POETIC FLARE in the 2,000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket early last month. Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin runner was quite free in the lead so he did well to hold on for fourth, but the drop in distance has to be in his favour.
MUTASAABEQ finished further back in seventh in the Newmarket Classic but he was far from disgraced. That G1 contest probably came a bit too soon in his career as it was just his third run and the ground was quicker than ideal. Conditions will be softer for this race and that will suit Charles Hills’ runner as he won on his debut over this 1,400m distance at Newmarket on heavy ground last season.
MEHMENTO won twice over 1,413m on the fibersand at Southwell early in the year and horses with form on artificial surfaces often do well at Ascot. He was only caught close home by CHINDIT in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury but he was disappointing in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains at ParisLongchamp. The return to 1,400m seemed to suit Archie Watson’s colt when he bounced back to form with a frontrunning victory in the Listed Surrey Stakes at Epsom on Oaks day. This is clearly his distance so he should go well from a prominent position.
CREATIVE FORCE has been in great form this season winning all three of his races over 1,200m. He added to his two Newmarket handicap victories by thrashing SPYCATCHER and TACTICAL in a Newbury Listed contest. The soft ground he encountered there for the first time suited him really well and he is bred to enjoy this step up to 1,400m.
KHARTOUM looked good when winning a Naas handicap over 1,600m on soft ground last month. He had been very disappointing when last of the ten runners in the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket, but the ground looked too quick for Aidan O’Brien’s colt that day. He should be up to this class and the drop to 1,400m will not be a problem.
SELECTIONS: 12. NAVAL CROWN, 10. MUTASAABEQ, 9. MEHMENTO, 4. CREATIVE FORCE & 7. KHARTOUM
S1-3 Hardwicke Stakes
There are some classy individuals lining up in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2,392m and with conditions likely to be testing the key to this puzzle could be horses with form on soft going.
The first of which is HUKUM, who comes into this on the back of a victory in a Listed event at Goodwood over 2,398m. The going that day was soft and it was his third win on the turf from six starts. Importantly, two of those wins have had soft in the going description, so this is certainly a horse that appreciates some juice in the ground and being so lightly raced he could be open to improvement.
There are four runners representing Aidan O’Brien, the first of which is BROOME, who already has two victories at the Curragh this season. They came in a G3 and G2 over 2,000m before he went on to contest the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at 2,100m. He was beaten a short head into second that day by HELVIC DREAM, who he had already beaten previously, and a bold show can certainly be expected here.
Another hailing from Ballydoyle is JAPAN. After a tricky season last year, the two-time G1 winner looks to be getting back to form. He won on his seasonal reappearance in the G3 Ormonde Stakes over 2,676m at Chester and then went on to finish third in the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,405m. The underfoot conditions, if as expected, should not raise any alarm bells as the best of his form has come on the soft side.
The William Haggas-trained ILARAAB steps into Group company for the first time after competing successfully in handicaps. He has won five of his six races on the turf and is clearly a very progressive horse, although he now has to prove himself at this higher level.
Rounding off the selections is WONDERFUL TONIGHT, who represents the David Menuisier’s yard. This is a filly that dominated her races towards the end of last season, appreciating testing conditions. This was best demonstrated when she landed the G1 British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes over this course and distance on her last outing. She will be mixing it with the males for the first time here on his seasonal reappearance, but she certainly has the talent to be in the mix.
SELECTIONS: 5. HUKUM, 2. BROOME, 7. JAPAN, 6. ILARAAB & 15. WONDERFUL TONIGHT
S1-4 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
Ed Walker has not got much sleep this week, worrying if the forecast of heavy rain midweek would materialise.
The in-form Lambourn trainer has been oozing confidence all winter about STARMAN staking his claim to be champion sprinter, knowing that testing ground might be the colt’s biggest danger. STARMAN’s only defeat in five races came in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over 1,200m on soft ground, but on good or faster ground he has proved lethal.
You could not fail to be impressed with the way he knuckled down for a battle in the closing stages in last month’s Duke of York Stakes at 1,200m, holding the challenge of NAHAARR by a neck on good-to-soft ground and that form was given a boost when third-placed OXTED won the King’s Stand Stakes here on Tuesday. But it cannot be too soft for NAHAARR and William Haggas is convinced he will be a major player at the top level if we get a wet summer.
In contrast to the new kids on the sprinting block, DREAM OF DREAMS is something of a veteran. Although he is seven, so was the Hong Kong-trained CAPE OF GOOD HOPE when he won this race in 2005. DREAM OF DREAMS has been short-headed for the last two years, first by BLUE POINT and then HELLO YOUMZAIN, but he showed he still had the ability to beat the best when winning the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock over 1,200m on soft ground last September. He had the perfect dress-rehearsal when barely breaking sweat to beat Listed company over 1,211m at Windsor last month, and he’ll give his all to make it in this race.
GLEN SHIEL, the mount of Hollie Doyle, just gets better and better. He broke into the big league when winning the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes over 1,200m and this stiff course suits him ideally. ART POWER came out best of the younger sprinters behind GLEN SHIEL here, when Irish challenger SONAIYLA might have been past her best for the season.
ART POWER disappointed at York on his reappearance and his chance would be improved by more rain, whereas ground is immaterial to recent Curragh winner SONAIYLA, who only now looks to be at her peak.
SELECTIONS: 2. DREAM OF DREAMS, 10. STARMAN, 1. ART POWER, 7. NAHAARR & 14. SONAIYLA
S1-5 Wokingham Stakes (Handicap)
Finding the winner of the Wokingham Stakes is never easy with 28 runners storming down Ascot’s 1,200m track.
However, there might be the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’ in KING'S LYNN, who looks a very worthy favourite. Andrew Balding’s 4YO has already run at Royal Ascot this week and was far from disgraced when finishing seventh in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m on Tuesday. That’s by far the strongest form on offer here and the step up to 1,200m holds no fears either given he won over the distance in his 2YO days. He’s owned by The Queen and her runner will be very popular.
His prime challenger could be CHIEFOFCHIEFS, who won the consolation version of this race 12 months ago. He’s run pretty well at Doncaster over 1,202m and Ascot over 1,400m on his two appearances this season, and given he’s not much higher in the weights than that win at this meeting last year, he should go well.
James Fanshawe’s AUDARYA ran really well earlier in the week in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes and her stablemate FRESH is another likely contender.
He was last seen winning here over course and distance where edging out PENDLETON by a nose. FRESH was giving weight to PENDLETON that day and reopposes on better terms here, so can be expected to uphold the form. The forecast rain looks in his favour and there could be more improvement to come given he’s still lightly raced for his age.
The same can’t be said for ROHAAN, who has been on the go right through the winter and has run 13 times since October 2020. He’s won six times in that sequence, meaning he’s rocketed up the weights in the process. David Evans’ 3YO was a surprise 33/1 winner of the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m at Haydock last time on soft ground, but given he won on good-to-firm the time before in a G3 at Ascot over 1,200m, he looks pretty versatile when it comes to ground conditions.
GULLIVER might not have won since October 2020, but the losing sequence means he’s on a dangerous handicap mark. David O’Meara’s stable star will be having his 60th career start here and like ROHAAN, has form on all types of surfaces, so looks a lively outsider.
SELECTIONS: 15. KING'S LYNN, 16. CHIEFOFCHIEFS, 4. ROHAAN, 27. FRESH & 17. GULLIVER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 15. KING'S LYNN, 16. CHIEFOFCHIEFS & 4. ROHAAN
S1-6: Multiple – 6. ALFAADHEL, 9. FANTASTIC FOX & 11. KING FRANKEL
S1-7: Multiple – 15. THE GRAND VISIR, 8. FALCON EIGHT & 4. STAG HORN
S1-6 Golden Gates Stakes (Handicap)
Three of the first four finishers in the inaugural running of this contest last year were mostly the horses with big odds, it proved to be a tricky 1,993m handicap for punters to solve.
The market looks like being headed by the lightly-raced ALFAADHEL.
The Roger Varian-trained 3YO breezed past SIR RUMI at Lingfield over 2,000m last time out, a horse who has since gone on to win well and reopposes here. As a result, his opening handicap mark has been revised up while stood in his box which isn’t ideal, but a bold bid is still expected.
Stepping up the 1,993m for the first time is FANTASTIC FOX. He won by an impressive seven-and-a-half lengths over 1,662m at Hamilton last time out, but that was to be expected given the class of the race. It’s hard to know quite how good he is off the back of that run as this is a very different test altogether, but he is still an interesting contender.
FOXES TALES is taking a slight step down in grade having lined up in the Listed 2,064m Dee Stakes at Chester last time out. It looked a fairly strong renewal of that contest and though slightly disappointing on the day, finishing back in fifth, jockey Silvestre de Sousa reported the colt was never travelling. He’s fancied to bounce back and get amongst the prize money on a more conventional track.
RIVER ALWEN is one of the more proven runners in the field after three starts over 2,000m this season. The 2,000m Conditions race he ran fourth at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance turned out to be a strong one, with G1 Derby Stakes third HURRICANE LANE leading them home and G1 St James’s Palace Stakes fourth MAXIMAL finishing second. He won over 2,000m at Newmarket and was then an eye-catching third in a 2,000m handicap back at Newbury.
That race tends to throw up horses to follow throughout the season and both he and the runner-up that day, KING FRANKEL, are two to be wary of here. It’s worth noting that KING FRANKEL has to shrug off a considerable hike in the weights since that effort in that handicap while RIVER ALWEN gets another chance off the same mark. Frankie Dettori has been booked for the ride, though, and a big run is expected.
SELECTIONS: 6. ALFAADHEL, 9. FANTASTIC FOX, 11. KING FRANKEL, 10. FOXES TALES & 3. RIVER ALWEN
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:
Banker – 6. ALFAADHEL
Selections – 9. FANTASTIC FOX, 11. KING FRANKEL, 10. FOXES TALES & 3. RIVER ALWEN
S1-7:
Banker – 15. THE GRAND VISIR
Selections – 8. FALCON EIGHT, 4. STAG HORN, 14. STRATUM & 12. MORANDO
S1-7 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The marathon 4,330m distance of the Queen Alexandra Stakes makes it the longest race in the British Flat racing calendar, and stamina is obviously the key to landing this prize.
THE GRAND VISIR stays really well and 3,100m probably wasn’t enough of a test when he was third in a G2 at ParisLongchamp in France last month. He won the Ascot Stakes over 3,991m at this meeting a couple of years ago and he only went down by a neck to WHO DARES WINS in this race 12 months ago. There will be plenty of horses who won’t last the distance on the likely soft ground but Ian Williams’ runner will not be one of them.
FALCON EIGHT is a strong stayer with a touch of class as he showed when storming home to win the 3,727m Chester Cup last month carrying top weight. He’s only had ten runs and he certainly wouldn’t look out of place in much better races than this.
Champion Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has won this prize twice before and he runs STRATUM. He stays really well as he showed when winning the competitive Cesarewitch handicap over 3,600m at Newmarket in 2019. His second behind ENBIHAAR in the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,251m at York last season also proves he’s got plenty of class. The combination of 2,800m on good ground wasn’t enough of a stamina test behind rapidly-improving BARON SAMEDI in the G3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan in April.
STAG HORN was hugely-progressive last season in completing a hat-trick of wins by thrashing THE GRAND VISIR over 3,602m at Pontefract in October. He was subsequently gelded so he should take a decent step forward from his fourth behind STRADIVARIUS in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m at Ascot in April.
MORANDO is worth a shot at this extreme distance having stayed on in the closing stages when fourth behind TRUESHAN in the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,190m at Ascot last October. He wasn’t quick enough for 2,398m at Goodwood last month and he will love every drop of rain that falls on the Ascot turf.
SELECTIONS: 15. THE GRAND VISIR, 8. FALCON EIGHT, 4. STAG HORN, 14. STRATUM & 12. MORANDO
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