 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for 3YO and up one time winning fillies and mares over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.
Starting stalls are set on turf course. Statistic shows that horses leaving from outside draw run better than those leaving from inside draw at this course. And tempo tends to be fast.
T M QUEEN finished third in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 6th June, running against colts and horses, and I assess it is a good performance, as it was the first start since 7th March for the 4YO filly by ORFEVRE. She covered the final 600m for 35.4 second, which is the fastest among the runners and her turn of foot was very impressive. T M QUEEN has won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race and I believe she likes Hanshin. T M QUEEN is my favourite.
MEISHO MICHINOKU finished fifth in the allowance race for one time winning fillies and mares over 1,200m on dirt at Niigata on 24th April and I regard this performance highly, because her late kick was so impressive, covering final 600m for 36.7 seconds, which is the fastest in 14 runners. And I have a feeling that 1,200m was too short for the 5YO mare by DUNKIRK and 1,400m is more suitable for her. This is not a big field and it helps MEISHO MICHINOKU, which is a typical closer. And she loves summer time and it is obvious that her condition is now improving. MEISHO MICHINOKU is my second choice.
HIRONO QUEEN collected her first win on 6th June, when the 3YO filly by HENNY HUGHES won the maiden over 1,400m on dirt at Chukyo. It was the first time for her to run the race of 1,400m and it looks this is her best trip. And the winning time, 1 minute and 24.7 seconds, is faster than standard, and I reckon she can compete well in this class. HIRONO QUEEN is my third choice.
Since PINNA made her debut in June 2020, she ran seven turf races and failed to win a race. The connection decided to change the way and sent her to dirt race for the first time at Chukyo on 27th March. It worked well and the 3YO filly by KIZUNA collected her first win in her eighth start. AGNES KALMIA, dam of PINNA, is the winner of four dirt races and the pedigree suggests PINNA should act on dirt better than on turf. She finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winning fillies and mares at Chukyo on 13th June and I assess she can finish within first four again here.
While recent form of LA BOHEME is poor, the 4YO filly by FUSAICHI SEVEN has been trained beautifully in last couple of weeks at Ritto Training Centre and I am sure her condition is now improving dramatically. LA BOHEME is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 12. T M QUEEN, 6. MEISHO MICHINOKU, 9. HIRONO QUEEN, 4. PINNA & 7. LA BOHEME
S1-2 3yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winners over 2,200m on turf at Hanshin.
This is the same course and distance as the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, feature race of the day. There is 525m long straight from the start to the first bend and there is no track bias. And statistic shows it is difficult to make all, although the pace of the race tends to be moderate or slow at this course.
GLORIA MUNDI finished second in the Listed Sumire Stakes over the same course and distance as this race on 28th February and I understand he is a runner with the highest profile in this field. Although the 3YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA was beaten sixth in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 12th June, his body weight on the day was around 20lbs heavier than his previous start and I understand his fitness was not 100%. I believe GLORIA MUNDI should have ability to compete well in Graded Stakes in the near future and should graduate this class easily on Sunday.
LORD PLAISIR finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 13th March in which the jockey struggled to settle him. This is the first start for the 3YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA since then and I have a feeling that his temperament issue is resolved, because he is now very relaxed in the morning. LORD PLAISIR is my second choice.
RED KAMUY made a successful debut at Hanshin on 20th February, running against experienced runners. Although the 3YO colt by EPIPHANEIA was well beaten in the allowance race at Tokyo on 29th May, there are two excuses, as it was his first start since 20th February and first start at Tokyo Racecourse, which is far away from his home, Ritto Training Centre. It is encouraging that Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday, and RED KAMUY is my third choice.
After finishing within first three in five consecutive races, PLUME D’OR finally collected his first win on 12th June, when she won a maiden over 2,000m on turf at Chukyo. I assess she should be competitive in this class and her pedigree suggests that she can run well here, as the 3YO filly is by GOLD SHIP, who won the Takarazuka Kinen over the same course and distance as this race in 2013 and 2014. PLUME D’OR is my fourth choice.
EVER MANO is a full sister to CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, who will participate in the Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin on Sunday. The 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT ran well at Niigata on 15th May, when she finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners, and she has won maiden over the same course and distance as this race twelve months ago. EVER MANO is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 8. GLORIA MUNDI, 11. LORD PLAISIR, 1. RED KAMUY, 6. PLUME D’OR & 9. EVER MANO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 8. GLORIA MUNDI
Selections – 11. LORD PLAISIR, 1. RED KAMUY, 6. PLUME D’OR & 9. EVER MANO
S1-3:
Banker – 3. WERTHEIM
Selections – 9. GEOFRONT, 4. SHONAN ARES, 2. DANDYISM & 8. GERALDINA
S1-3 Kinosaki Tokubetsu
Kinosaki Tokubetsu is a stakes race for one time winners over 1,800m on turf at Hanshin.
There is 665m long straight from the start to the first bend and statistic shows wide draw is not a disadvantage at this course. It is another tendency here that the tempo is moderate or slow and it is picked up at 600m pole.
This is the fifth start at this class for WERTHEIM and her performance has been getting better race by race. While the 3YO filly by LORD KANALOA used to be childish in races, it looks she has learnt what to do in races and done a workmanlike job in last start, finishing second in the allowance race for one time winners, at Chukyo on 15th May. And she has won maiden at Hanshin last November. WERTHEIM is my favourite.
GEOFRONT who was narrowly beaten in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 24th April, is my second choice. The 3YO colt by HEART’S CRY collected his first win at Kokura on 28th February, which was his seventh start, and then, ran well at this class twice. And Christophe Lemaire is booked for him on Sunday. GEOFRONT is my second choice.
SHONAN ARES has started six times this year and finished within first four in four of them. He finished sixth in the G3 Kisaragi Sho at Chukyo on 7th February when the competition was too tough, and finished eighth in the Listed Hosu Stakes at Chukyo on 23rd May, when he did not act on dirt track. It means the 3YO colt by LEONTES has been running consistently against one time winners in turf races, and he is my third choice.
DANDYISM won allowance race for one time winners at Kokura last August, after failing to win maiden races for 3YOs. The 5YO gelding by MANHATTAN CAFE ran at this class for five times after the first win and finished second in three of them. While all those past performances prove that he is competitive at this class, this is the first start for DANDYISM since last December and I suppose his fitness is 80% to 90% on Sunday. DANDYISM is my fourth choice.
GERALDINA, trained by Takashi Saito, has been playing a role of training companion for CHRONO GENESIS, likely favourite in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen, in recent weeks, and working well at Ritto Training Centre. She was beaten seventh in the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, finishing only three lengths behind the winner, SODASHI, in December, and I believe GERALDINA has an ability to finish within first five here, running against one time winners.
SELECTIONS: 3. WERTHEIM, 9. GEOFRONT, 4. SHONAN ARES, 2. DANDYISM & 8. GERALDINA
S1-4 Maiko Tokubetsu
Maiko Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two times winners over 1,400m on turf at Hanshin.
There is 443m from the start to the first bend. There is no track bias and wide draw is not a disadvantage at this course. And the pace tends to be strong.
I believe BLUE SPIRIT has ability to compete well in Graded Stakes. The colt by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 23rd November in 2020, beating PIXIE KNIGHT, who won the G3 Shinzan Kinen at Chukyo on 10th January. And BLUE SPIRIT finished fifth in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes at Nakayama on 20th December and BATHRAT LEON, who was just a head ahead of BLUE SPIRIT in Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, won the G2 New Zealand Trophy at Nakayama on 10th April. Although this is the first start for BLUE SPIRIT since the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, he has been breezed twice a week since the end of May at Ritto Training Centre, and I believe he is ready to run now. BLUE SPIRIT is my favourite.
GOLD TIER started at this class for five times since the filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA graduated the class for one time winners in May 2020 and finished within first five in all of them. She finished second in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 2nd May, although it was first start for her since 14th February, and I had the impression that she would graduate this class pretty soon. GOLD TIER is my second choice.
One of the most consistent runners in the field is MOONLIGHT, who finished second in last three starts at the class for two time winners, including the allowance race at Chukyo on 30th May, when the filly by HEART’S CRY ran against colts and horses. And she is the winner of the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race. MOONLIGHT is my third choice.
SMART COURAGE finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 27th February and I thought it was a good effort, because it was the first start at this class and first start since June 2020 for the colt by DEEP IMPACT. Although he was beaten seventh in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 5th June, it was a slowly-run race which did not suit him. The pace here should be faster than the previous start and he likes the track at Hanshin, where he has collected two wins. SMART COURAGE is my fourth choice.
MINNIE ISLE, who finished third in the G2 Fillies’ Revue over the same course and distance as this race on 14th March, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 11. BLUE SPIRIT, 3. GOLD TIER, 2. MOONLIGHT, 1. SMART COURAGE & 10. MINNIE ISLE
S1-5 Hananomichi Stakes
Hananomichi Stakes is a stakes race for three time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin.
While there is only 342m from the start to the first bend, statistic shows there is no track bias and wide draw is not a disadvantage at this course.
PIER CHIC graduated the class for two time winners on 7th March, when the American-bred horse by CENTRAL BANKER won allowance race over the same course and distance as this race. Since then, he ran twice at the class for three time winners, finished third at Niigata on 11th April and second at Niigata on 15th May. It is obvious that PIER CHIC has ability to compete well at this class. He has collected all his three wins over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin and this is his favourite course. And he has been trained well at uphill track at Ritto Training Centre since last start and I believe he is keeping good condition. PIER CHIC is my favourite.
The horse to beat for PIER CHIC is ONUSHI NANIMONO, who has been running well at this class, finishing second in an allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 24th January and third in the allowance race for the same class at Niigata on 15th May. The colt by CURREN BLACK HILL was given a break after the race on 24th January and had easy time for a while. In fact, it looked his fitness was 80 % to 90% in the previous race. He has been trained sharply at Ritto Training Centre since then, and I believe ONUSHI NANIMONO is now ready to show his true ability. While he has run at Hanshin for three times and not finished within first three, he collected two wins at Fukushima and I believe he is capable to handle the clockwise track at Hanshin.
While NIGHT BREEZE was unraced until July 2020, the filly by KINSHASA NO KISEKI won three races in a row and is now competing at the class for three time winners. Koji Kayano who trains the filly decided to give her a break after she finished third in the allowance race for three time winners on 28th February. She looks very fresh now and has been trained well at Miho Training Centre. NIGHT BREEZE is my third choice.
AURORA TESORO graduated the class for two time winners at Hanshin on 14th March and ran well in the allowance race for three time winners at Tokyo on 16th May, finishing third. Though the colt by MALIBU MOON has collected all his three wins in the race over 1,400m, I am sure the cut back to 1,200m does not matter. And he likes Hanshin where he is two for two. AURORA TESORO is my fourth choice.
While KOSOKU SPEED was well beaten in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 24th January, he had traffic problem and I believe he should run much better if he had clear run. The 4YO colt by VICTOIRE PISA has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is in top form. KOSOKU SPEED is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. PIER CHIC, 15. ONUSHI NANIMONO, 10. NIGHT BREEZE, 12. AURORA TESORO & 8. KOSOKU SPEED
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 6. PIER CHIC
Selections – 15. ONUSHI NANIMONO, 10. NIGHT BREEZE, 12. AURORA TESORO & 8. KOSOKU SPEED
S1-6:
Banker – 7. CHRONO GENESIS
Selections – 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, 2. LEI PAPALE, 13. KISEKI & 1. UNICORN LION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. PIER CHIC, 15. ONUSHI NANIMONO & 10. NIGHT BREEZE
S1-6: Multiple – 7. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR & 2. LEI PAPALE
S1-7: Multiple – 1. VELA AZUL, 12. SAMMARU EMPIRE & 8. HOKKO HANAMICHI
S1-6 Takarazuka Kinen
We are right in the era of distinguished fillies and mares. In 2020, FIEREMENT, winner of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring, is only male thoroughbred who managed to win G1 races with no age or gender restriction on turf in Japan. It is an extraordinary result that rest of G1s, including Takamatsunomiya Kinen, Osaka Hai, Yasuda Kinen, Takarazuka Kinen, Sprinters Stakes, Tenno Sho Autumn, Mile Championship, Japan Cup, and Arima Kinen, were all won by female thoroughbred in 2020.
This tendency is still lasting and my top selections for the G1 Takarazuka Kinen are female runners.
My favourite is CHRONO GENESIS, who tries to become the second horse to achieve the back-to-back win of the Takarazuka Kinen, after GOLD SHIP who won the race to conclude the first half of season in 2013 and 2014. In addition to winning Takarazuka Kinen by six lengths, the 5YO mare by BAGO captured the G1 Arima Kinen, the year-end championship race in Japan, by neck in December 2020. And CHRONO GENESIS made a trip to Dubai in March and finished second to MISHRIFF, who is arguably the best older middle distance runner in Europe, in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. CHRONO GENESIS holds the entry of the G1 Prix de I’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp in October, and I believe Takarazuka Kinen is a stepping-stone to success in the Arc for CHRONO GENESIS.
While CURREN BOUQUETD’OR has never won any Graded Stakes yet, the 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT finished second in three G1s in 2019, including the G1 Japan Cup. And she finished third in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring at Hanshin on 2nd May and proved she is still keeping her top form. The mare trained by Sakae Kunieda has been breezed twice a week at Miho Training Centre since the end of May and she is in good shape. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR is versatile and consistent, and I believe she puts up a good fight at Hanshin on Sunday.
My third choice is LEI PAPALE, who won the G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 4th April by four lengths. The 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT is still unbeaten through six starts and is improving like a skyrocket. On the other hand, she was unmarked in Osaka Hai and her front-running tactics worked very well. Opponents pay much attention on her in the Takarazuka Kinen and this race is the touchstone of her true ability.
While KISEKI has not won a race since October in 2017, he finished second in the Takarazuka Kinen in 2019 and 2020. It is obvious that he likes Hanshin, where he started nine times, won once, finished second for four times, and third twice. He ran bravely and finished fourth in the G1 FWD QEII CUP at Sha Tin on 25th April and I have the impression that the 7YO horse by RULERSHIP is still hale and hearty. KISEKI is my fourth choice.
UNICORN LION, winner of the G3 Naruo Kinen at Chukyo on 5th June is now improving dramatically, and the Irish-bred horse by NO NAY NEVER is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 7. CHRONO GENESIS, 10. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, 2. LEI PAPALE, 13. KISEKI & 1. UNICORN LION
S1-7 Ribbon Sho
Ribbon Sho is a stakes race for two time winners over 1,800m on dirt at Hanshin.
There is 303m straight from the start to the first turn and it is not long enough for runners to find their proper position. The statistic shows the horses who start from wide draw enjoy better result and inside draw is a disadvantage.
VELA AZUL was well beaten in two allowance race for two time winners, after the colt by EISHIN FLASH graduated the class for one time winners at Chukyo on 10th January. However, he bounced back last time out and finished third in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 13th June, which was the first start for him since 10th April. It looked he was refreshed and his condition was much better than the previous starts. His performance is stable at Hanshin, where he has started for six times, won one of them, finished second for three times and third once. Christophe Lemaire is booked for him on Sunday. VELA AZUL is my favourite.
The allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 6th June, has given me some clues for Ribbon Sho and SAMMARU EMPIRE, fourth finisher in that race is my second choice. The 7YO horse by EMPIRE MAKER could not have smooth passage and forced to switch outside at 200m pole. It might be difficult for him to catch the winner, even though he had clear run. I assess he could finish second. His performance in another allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 16th May, was not bad. And he has collected one of his two wins over the same course and distance.
HOKKO HANAMICHI who finished fifth in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 6th June is my third choice. I assess it is a good effort because it is the first start in this class, first start against older horses, and first start since 10th April for the 3YO colt by HOKKO TARUMAE. I feel he is now improving and believe he is competitive in this class. And he won the maiden over the same course and distance as this race.
My fourth choice is SATONO PURSUIT, who ran well in two starts at this class after graduating the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 19th December. The 4YO colt was disappointing seventh in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 2nd May, and the connection decides to give him the opportunity to run the race over 1,800m for the first time on Sunday. I believe this change of tactics should work well.
WONDER ECARTE, who finished within first five in last three starts for two time winners, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. VELA AZUL, 12. SAMMARU EMPIRE, 8. HOKKO HANAMICHI, 7. SATONO PURSUIT & 13. WONDER ECARTE
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