 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Eclipse Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ 76-95 Handicap
Kicking off Eclipse Stakes Day at Sandown is a tricky 1,009m handicap.
MOKAATIL’s five of his six career wins have come at double-figure odds, including when landing the 1,000m ‘Dash’ Handicap at Epsom on Derby Stakes Day last time out. He slipped under the radar despite being down to his last winning mark and won’t be too far away if repeating that effort in what is undoubtedly a weaker race. His new handicap mark makes things tougher but he is sliding down in grade.
Operating at a 12% strike-rate, his best figure in five years, and already a winner of two Group contests, trainer David Evans is having a season to remember and his LIHOU is one to note. The son of MAYSON has had 20 starts without a break since the summer of 2020, and he’s finished in the first three on 12 of those occasions. He’s arguably a better horse on the all-weather or with a bit of cut underfoot on turf, so any showers on Saturday morning would be a boost to his chances.
7YO SAAHEQ has won three of his last eight and has been climbing the handicap as a result. He remains fairly treated on some of his very best form from 2019 and certainly looks to be enjoying his racing at the moment, so could yet go in again.
SPOOF is another seasoned campaigner who enters calculations. He was racing in far hotter company throughout 2018 with limited success but has since scored four times from his last eight starts, all over today’s 1,000m trip, and remains of interest. He’s been raised a little by the handicapper for his last start win at Chester, but not enough to stop him from being competitive.
Of the more unexposed types in the field, HURRICANE IVOR makes most appeal. Having won twice in France, the son of IVAWOOD joined William Haggas but failed to fire on his seasonal debut at York. Jockey Cieren Fallon was easing him down in the closing stages to eventually finish last of all, but that was his first run back for seven months and an excuse can be made. He looked a classy individual in France and remains a risky but unexposed option.
SELECTIONS: 3. MOKAATIL, 4. SPOOF, 2. LIHOU, 8. SAAHEQ & 1. HURRICANE IVOR
S1-2 Sprint Stakes
Over the years, the G3 1,009m Sprint Stakes has been won by greats such as LOCHSONG and BATTAASH. There might not be a superstar like those two in this year’s race, but it still looks a fascinating contest on paper.
ARECIBO has looked a different horse this season and is in flying form. The Robert Cowell-trained 6YO has been a revelation since joining the yard, winning two of his four starts and he looks the one to beat here. Both wins came in handicaps at Newmarket over 1,000m which he won convincingly. You can put a line through his run in the G3 1,000m Palace House Stakes, where he was badly hampered 200m out and was eventually beaten by rivals LAZULI and CAME FROM THE DARK. He put in a brilliant performance to finish second in the G1 1,000m King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and he goes on any ground.
With Ryan Moore booked to ride, KEEP BUSY is another who will be tough to beat. She ran a big race to be fifth in the aforementioned King’s Stand Stakes and then went on to land a 1,000m Listed prize at Ayr where she beat a solid field. She’s proven she can handle cut in the ground and could run another big race as she aims for her first Group success.
CAME FROM THE DARK is an interesting prospect for Ed Walker. The 5YO has been progressing well this season finishing inside the places in all three runs as well as winning a handicap at Newbury over 1,031m. He was unlucky not to beat LAZULI last time out at Newmarket over 1,000m and is more than capable of turning that form around.
LAZULI is one who will be hoping the rain stays away. The Godolphin-owned gelding has only raced once in the UK this season, but it was an impressive win the G3 Palace House Stakes. If it dries out, he could go well.
ATALIS BAY takes his chance for Marco Botti. The 3YO son of CABLE BAY has had a great season so far, winning two of his three starts under Andrea Atzeni, including a Listed success over the same course and distance. He’s climbed the weights this season and his ability to handle this track is a bonus, although he is another who would like the rain to stay away.
SELECTIONS: 3. ARECIBO, 8. KEEP BUSY, 4. CAME FROM THE DARK, 1. LAZULI & 9. ATALIS BAY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 3. ARECIBO
Selections – 8. KEEP BUSY, 4. CAME FROM THE DARK, 1. LAZULI & 9. ATALIS BAY
S1-3:
Banker – 14. PYTHAGORAS
Selections – 7. ORBAAN, 11. ACQUITTED, 1. MONTATHAM & 9. MAGICAL MORNING
S1-3 3yo+ Handicap
Most handicaps over 1,600m are tricky puzzles to solve and this one is no different.
David O’Meara fires a couple of darts with ORBAAN looking the pick of his two. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is quite lightly-raced for a 6YO and based on his run at Newcastle last time over 1,605m, he looks handicapped to go well. He got no run at all and finished better than most, so could be dangerous if getting a better passage here.
Richard Fahey’s string continues to run well and his PYTHAGORAS will surely find this handicap contest easier than the races he’s run in so far this season. He finished fourth in a Listed race at Epsom, was then a good sixth in the G2 Dante Stakes at York and didn’t run too badly in the Golden Gates Stakes at Ascot over 1,993m. He didn’t seem to get home there, so the drop back to 1,600m looks a wise move.
Since finishing second to PALACE PIER last season, ACQUITTED has promised to win a prize like this. However, he’s still to get his head in front, including in this race last year, where he finished last of nine despite being well-fancied. His three runs this season have been better, though, and he lost little in defeat last time at Chelmsford City over 1,400m, where he was giving weight away. He stayed on strongly at the end there, so the step back up to 1,600m should suit.
Frankie Dettori rode the winner of this race in 2019 and he gets aboard MAGICAL MORNING this time around. The lightly-raced 4YO hasn’t perhaps progressed as hoped considering he was tried in Listed company on just his fourth career start. He ran well to be second in a Doncaster handicap over 1,600m at the end of last season and didn’t run too badly in the Royal Hunt Cup on his seasonal reappearance. Given his connections, he has to be respected.
It’s hard to leave out last year’s winner MONTATHAM, who bids to give William Haggas a third consecutive win in the race. Granted, he’s much higher in the weights this time around, but he might just be the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’ and can’t be discounted. He’s only finished out of the first three once in his last seven starts and although this is a tougher task than 12 months ago, he could still be up to it.
SELECTIONS: 14. PYTHAGORAS, 7. ORBAAN, 11. ACQUITTED, 1. MONTATHAM & 9. MAGICAL MORNING
S1-4 Distaff Stakes
With the surprise defection of NAZUNA from the final field of the Listed Distaff Stakes over 1,600m, the door could have been left open for Martyn Meade’s STATEMENT to land her first win of the campaign.
The form of her short-head defeat to ALCOHOL FREE in the G3 Fred Darling Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury on her seasonal return was given a huge boost when the winner went on to claim the G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,594m last month.
Since then STATEMENT has finished eighth in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket and third in the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 1,703m at Epsom. This is a drop down in class and with Martyn Meade’s horses in decent form and Ryan Moore booked she should prove hard to beat.
William Haggas has won the last two renewals of this race and he comes here double handed with READY TO VENTURE and AUNTY BRIDY, both owned by Lael Stable. The fact stable jockey Tom Marquand has picked READY TO VENTURE despite her being rated significantly lower is interesting. She was disappointing at Goodwood last time over 1,979m but had run well to be third at Ascot over 1,594m on her reappearance.
AURIA represents the in-form Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy team. She has been beaten by CREATIVE FLAIR on both starts this term, first up at Ascot over 1,594m when READY TO VENTURE was third and then in a 2,000m Listed contest at Newbury last month. Connections have decided to drop her back to 1,600m which could be what she needs.
Richard Hannon’s SHINE FOR YOU was placed in a 1,400m G3 at Newmarket last season and ran well to be fourth in a 1,575m Listed race at York on her seasonal debut. She makes a quick reappearance after finishing sixth in a 2,038m G3 tapeta contest at Newcastle last weekend, but she is another who might appreciate the drop back to 1,600m.
GLESGA GAL, trained by Hugo Palmer, is yet to win on turf, although she has run well on heavy ground so if Sandown gets more rain it won’t be a problem. It didn’t quite work out for her last time in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot, but she is a talented filly and as a daughter of LOPE DE VEGA she should have no issue with this 1,600m trip.
SELECTIONS: 11. STATEMENT, 2. AURIA, 6. READY TO VENTURE, 10. SHINE FOR YOU & 3. GLESGA GAL
S1-5 Eclipse Stakes
The highlight on the Sandown card this weekend is the 1,990m G1 Eclipse Stakes, where a small but select field will bid to join an esteemed role of honour, including the likes of SEA THE STARS and ENABLE.
John Gosden has won the race four times, most recently with the aforementioned ENABLE in 2019, and alongside his son, Thady, they saddle MISHRIFF this year. The 4YO has become a global superstar in recent times, having won the 2020 G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m, this year’s Saudi Cup over 1,800m and the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m. Connections have always had this race in mind since that Meydan victory and the 4YO is a worthy favourite.
Aidan O’Brien saddles ST MARK’S BASILICA as he bids to win the race for the first time since SO YOU THINK in 2011. The son of SIYOUNI looks a leading contender on the back of three consecutive G1 victories. The first of those came in last season’s G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket and he followed that up with wins in France in the 1,600m Poule d'Essai des Poulains and 2,100m Prix du Jockey Club. Being a 3YO, he gets a handy weight allowance from most of his rivals, and will go close if in the same form again.
ADDEYBB is by far the most experienced in the line-up with this being his 23rd career start. He’s been a great servant for connections, though, and has won four G1s. The most recent of those came when last seen in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,000m at Randwick in Australia. He continues to flourish despite his advancing years and has the form to be involved, although his best performances have come on a softer surface, so connections will be hoping the rain arrives.
EL DRAMA looks booked for fourth. He’s only had five career starts, but was visually impressive when winning the Listed Dee Stakes over 2,064m at Chester on his penultimate outing. Roger Varian’s colt ran in the Prix du Jockey Club next time and finished down the field, which can be forgiven given his relative lack of experience. It would be a huge step up to win a race like this, but he is still an interesting horse for the future.
SELECTIONS: 2. MISHRIFF, 4. ST MARK’S BASILICA & 1. ADDEYBB
S1-6 3yo+ 81-100 Handicap
CLASSICAL WAVE makes his debut for Roger Varian in this 1,990m handicap and he has the potential to be a fair bit better than this grade.
He won his first two races on the polytrack at Wolverhampton over 1,895m and Lingfield over 2,000m before finishing first past the post on turf at Windsor in April. He lost the race on a disqualification but it was still a good effort as the front two finished well clear. There’s no doubt he hit the front too soon in that 2,000m contest and he looks like he will be much better suited to this bigger field.
MAKRAM has been in good form since moving up in distance to 2,000m races. He had a whole host of subsequent winners behind, including PIVOINE, when runner-up over 2,051m at York in May. His second behind GOOD BIRTHDAY in the handicap at Redcar over 2,001m was also a smart effort. Sandown’s stiff finish should be ideal for this strong stayer and there is more to come from this well-bred 4YO.
PIVOINE is well weighted on his best form and there was a lot to like about his last-to-first Haydock win over 2,038m last month. The runner-up won next time out to and PIVOINE had previously been unlucky not to finish closer than fourth in a competitive 2,051m York handicap so he is clearly in great form. He has won over the same course and distance and he should get the decent pace he likes.
DREAM WITH ME got into a battle too soon when well beaten in a good 2,015m at Epsom on Oaks day. He is better judged on his two earlier wins at Ayr over 2,000m when he looked most progressive. Mark Johnston’s handicappers often keep improving throughout the summer once they’ve hit form and DREAM WITH ME should return to form on this more conventional track.
The stewards quite rightly gave MAN OF THE NIGHT the race after he had finished runner-up behind TAWAAREQ at Doncaster last month. He was short of room when making his challenge and then bumped in the closing stages of that 2,039m contest. The blinkers he wore for the first time seemed to do the trick after a frustrating spell and he remains nicely weighted.
SELECTIONS: 6. CLASSICAL WAVE, 7. DREAM WITH ME, 8. MAKRAM, 4. PIVOINE & 5. MAN OF THE NIGHT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:
Banker – 6. CLASSICAL WAVE
Selections – 7. DREAM WITH ME, 8. MAKRAM, 4. PIVOINE & 5. MAN OF THE NIGHT
S1-7:
Banker – 1. RUN TO FREEDOM
Selections – 2. THIRD KINGDOM, 3. IL BANDITO, 5. FANTASY MASTER & 6. FARASI LANE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 6. CLASSICAL WAVE, 7. DREAM WITH ME & 8. MAKRAM
S1-7: Multiple – 1. RUN TO FREEDOM, 2. THIRD KINGDOM & 3. IL BANDITO
S1-8: Multiple – 3. WINK OF AN EYE, 1. AVETA & 8. PURE BUBBLES
S1-7 3yo 71-90 Handicap
RUN TO FREEDOM has some very smart form in the book and he looks the one to beat in this 1,400m handicap.
He beat subsequent Listed winner HIGHLAND AVENUE, who wasn’t disgraced in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, over 1,400m on Kempton’s polytrack in December. He pulled too hard in the early stages when returning from a six-month break over this course and distance three weeks ago. There’s every chance he will improve a lot for that comeback run and there should be enough pace to help him settle. This half-brother of dual G1 winner TWILIGHT SON has the class to be a big player in this grade.
The ground was too soft for THIRD KINGDOM on his return to action over at Doncaster in May. The 1,594m distance also stretched his stamina so he should be happier over this shorter trip. His third in a novice race over this course and distance last season worked out really well and he looks nicely weighted on that effort.
IL BANDITO received a bump at the start when unable to get to front-running FOOLS RUSH IN over 1,393m at Haydock last time out. He had earlier looked a progressive performer when easily seeing off a couple of subsequent winners at the same track over 1,434m in a race that has worked out well. A decent gallop would suit Charles Hills’ runner and he does look likely to get a nice pace to aim at.
FANTASY MASTER ran a clear personal best when a fast-finishing third in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he shapes like he will appreciate the step up to 1,400m for the first time. He seems to handle any ground conditions so he wouldn’t be troubled if the track was hit by some rain during the morning.
The only previous time FARASI LANE has worn cheekpieces he made all the running for an impressive 1,400m on Kempton’s polytrack. The headgear is back on again following a solid run when runner-up over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course). The way he edged left up the final climb suggests the cheekpieces will be helpful. Tom Ward’s runner certainly has the ability to be competitive in a race like this.
SELECTIONS: 1. RUN TO FREEDOM, 2. THIRD KINGDOM, 3. IL BANDITO, 5. FANTASY MASTER & 6. FARASI LANE
S1-8 3yo 61-80 Handicap
Saturday’s finale, a 1,990m handicap for 3YOs, is the lowest grade affair on the card but is set to feature a maximum field.
The obvious starting point has to the William Haggas-trained WINK OF AN EYE who comes here on a hat-trick after wins at both Haydock over 2,038m and Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m.
Owned by Her Majesty The Queen, a gelding operation last October appears to have transformed this son of DUBAWI. He has been climbing the handicap solidly and has performed well on a variety of going, so whatever happens with the weather he should be fine.
Ralph Beckett’s horses have been in great form all season and his filly AVETA is an interesting contender off top weight. A five-length winner of a 1,628m fillies’ maiden at Windsor on her reappearance, the drop back to 1,515m at a sharp track like Chester last time didn’t play to her strengths. The daughter of GLENEAGLES should relish this step up to 1,990m and she handles some cut in the ground too.
Hong Kong punters always keep an eye out for Ryan Moore’s rides and the international superstar climbs aboard PURE BUBBLES for his father Gary Moore. Following an unsuccessful spell on the all-weather in the winter, he was gelded in February and made his first start in a handicap at Newmarket (July Course) last month. Although he got tired in the closing stages, he showed up well for a long way to be fourth to the aforementioned WINK OF AN EYE. It was a pleasing return and he should be fitter for this at a track where his trainer does well.
Champion jockey Oisin Murphy is always in demand and he has been booked to ride CURRENCY EXCHANGE for James Ferguson. The gelded son of NIGHT OF THUNDER has had four starts since moving from William Haggas to James Ferguson and he has put in solid efforts each time. His last effort was the first time he has raced over 2,371m and that was perhaps a step too far, so he should be happier back at this distance.
The final selection is Richard Hannon’s REMEDIUM who has been very consistent this season, finishing placed on all three starts at around 2,000m. His reappearance second to THIRD REALM at Nottingham has been firmly franked with the winner landing the Listed Derby Trial Stakes 2,321m and then finishing fifth to ADAYAR in the Derby Stakes over 2,405m.
SELECTIONS: 3. WINK OF AN EYE, 1. AVETA, 8. PURE BUBBLES, 9. CURRENCY EXCHANGE & 2. REMEDIUM
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