Expert Column for Goodwood Cup Day (S1)
S1-1 4yo+ Handicap by Bill Esdaile
Trainer Mark Johnson should always be respected at Goodwood, and combined with a strong record in this race, his runners are always worth a second look.
Last year’s runaway winner MAYDANNY looks the pick of his three contenders. However, despite a nice low barrier draw, the recent heavy rain won’t have helped his chances as he has always shown his best on a sound surface.
MIGRATION ran a really eye-catching race on his return from a 641-day absence over 1,600m at Salisbury last month. That was also his first run since being gelded and he ran on strongly late that day. The step up to this trip will play to his strengths and the easing of the ground is also a positive. If there is a negative it would be a barrier draw of 14, but he has a good jockey in William Buick who should be able to navigate a trouble-free passage.
Another who will relish the softer surface and track is the Ralph Beckett-trained VICTORY CHIME, who got one win and a second in last four starts. He won twice at Epsom and has also won here at Goodwood proving the undulating track holds no fears. The concern with him is that he also has to navigate a passage from an even wider barrier draw than MIGRATION, but he has plenty going for him despite that.
One horse arriving here in the form of his life is COCKALORUM and Roger Fell’s 6YO has landed a nice low barrier and is versatile when it comes to the ground. He was only just touched off by JOHNNY DRAMA over 2,051m at York last time and can go well again despite having to cope with another hike in the weights. The ground was soft when he won over 1,789m at Musselburgh two starts back so he will have no issues if further rain falls.
MAJESTIC DAWN looks another leading player on the back of his emphatic success in last season’s 1,800m Cambridgeshire 3yo+ Handicap at Newmarket. He prepped for this with a solid third over an inadequate 1,628m at Windsor last month and he is dangerous to dismiss from a low berth. The rain is no problem for him as he boasts solid form on all ground.
SELECTIONS: 14. MIGRATION, 2. MAJESTIC DAWN, 5. VICTORY CHIME, 7. COCKALORUM & 4.MAYDANNY
S1-2 Vintage Stakes by Bill Esdaile
BERKSHIRE SHADOW sets a decent standard in the 1,409m G2 Vintage Stakes.
He did well to win over 1,031m on his debut at Newbury after missing the break and he took big step forward on his second run when landing the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Having sat towards the rear in the early stages, he stormed home down the stands’ side and was pulling away from the runner-up ELDRICKJONES in the closing stages. The way he finished that contest suggests he should have no problem with the step up to 1,409m for the first time.
LUSAIL already has a 1,400m victory in the book having made all the running to win a novice race in June at Newmarket (July Course). The drop to 1,200m was no problem when he clung on to win the G2 July Stakes three weeks ago. It’s interesting he now returns to 1,409m in a race trainer Richard Hannon has yet to win since taking over from his father, who landed this prize five times.
ELDRICKJONES is a maiden after three starts but he boasts some smart form. He couldn’t have gone much closer to winning on his debut when beaten a nose over 1,200m at Thirsk and he didn’t have the best of draws when running a huge race to chase home BERKSHIRE SHADOW in the G2 1,200m Coventry Stakes. Newmarket probably didn’t suit him when fifth behind LUSAIL in the aforementioned July Stakes and he was a little short of room in the closing stages. This longer distance should help but he does have ground to make up on both BERKSHIRE SHADOW and LUSAIL.
AUSTRIAN THEORY is likely to make this a test of stamina. He’s bred to come into his own over much further next season so it was pleasing to see him make a winning debut over 1,405m at Doncaster in June. Mark Johnston’s runner wasn’t quick enough when upped to G2 grade in the Superlative Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course), but he will keep on galloping so should run well if allowed to set his own pace.
THE ACROPOLIS will certainly appreciate tackling 1,409m for the first time. He finished in midfield in the Coventry Stakes over 1,200m, and he was disappointing in the G2 1,200m Railway Stakes at the Curragh but it’s too early to be writing off Aidan O’Brien’s runner.
SELECTIONS: 1. BERKSHIRE SHADOW, 2. LUSAIL, 5. ELDRICKJONES & 4. AUSTRIAN THEORY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 1. BERKSHIRE SHADOW
Selections – 2. LUSAIL, 5. ELDRICKJONES & 4. AUSTRIAN THEORY
S1-3:
Banker – 10. SPACE BLUES
Selections – 9. SAFE VOYAGE, 5. KINROSS, 12. CREATIVE FORCE & 1. DUKE OF HAZZARD
S1-3 Lennox Stakes by Bill Esdaile
There are certain horses who are 1,400m specialists – they do not quite have the speed for 1,200m, but lack the stamina for 1,600m.
One such example is Godolphin’s SPACE BLUES, with six of his eight wins coming over 1,400m, including this G2 prize 12 months ago, when he came from off the pace to score impressively. He then captured that elusive G1 success in the Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m at Deauville before suffering an injury, which brought his season to a premature end. However, SPACE BLUES carried on where he left off when returning in triumph at King Abdulaziz over 1,351m in February, and we can put a line through his 1,200m Meydan flop on the Dubai World Cup Day. He has run poorly on the track both times he’s been to Dubai.
Sunday’s rain was a blessing for the chance of the mud-loving veteran SAFE VOYAGE. He is another 1,400m specialist, having notched 11 of his 13 wins over 1,400m and he was the unlucky horse in last year’s race. He would not have beaten SPACE BLUES, but he might have been second instead of fourth had he avoided the scrimmaging up the straight. And he was firing on all cylinders again when winning at Chester over 1,401m last time.
Godolphin are also represented by CREATIVE FORCE, but no 3YO has beaten their elders in this race since 2013. However, his form is rock-solid, and, having rattled off four wins in the space of two months this season - three over 1,200m, plus the 1,400m G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot – he was only beaten two lengths by the G1 speedballs in the July Cup at Newmarket (July course) over 1,200m.
DUKE OF HAZZARD is in his element on the track, breaking his maiden here as a juvenile before winning two graded races, both over 1,600m, when returning the following season. That longer trip might suit him better these days, but he beat all except SPACE BLUES in this race last year and we can forgive him his one hiccup in the 1,600m G2 Celebration Mile Stakes a month later as he struggled with his breathing and subsequently had a wind operation.
KINROSS, who recaptured his form when winning at Haydock over 1,434m, his first run since being gelded, is also interesting with the rain a plus for him too.
SELECTIONS: 10. SPACE BLUES, 9. SAFE VOYAGE, 5. KINROSS, 12. CREATIVE FORCE & 1. DUKE OF HAZZARD
S1-4 Goodwood Cup by Bill Esdaile
The 3,210m G1 Goodwood Cup is the second of three historic staying races in the UK Flat calendar. Once again this race revolves around STRADIVARIUS, the winner every year since 2017.
However, since taking this prize last season, John & Thady Gosden’s staying star has won only once in five starts. Excuses can be made for his most recent failure in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m where he got trapped behind horses turning into the home straight. Easy winner of that race, SUBJECTIVIST, has since been side lined through injury and that fact alone should give STRADIVARIUS every chance of a fifth Goodwood Cup success.
Forecast rain could have a bearing on this race and TRUESHAN is one horse whose chances would be significantly enhanced by rainfall. His demolition of his rivals in the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,190m on soft ground last season marked him down as a potential future champion of the staying division. It is worth forgetting his recent run in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle over 3,251m, where he was giving lots of weight away in the handicap. Hollie Doyle’s return to the saddle is a positive and given ideal conditions he will be a big threat to STRADIVARIUS.
Connections of SIR RON PRIESTLEY will be hoping for dry weather, as all his wins have come on good ground or better. Mark Johnston’s horse showed great tenacity to win from the front over 2,400m at Newmarket (July Course) last time and looks the obvious pace angle here. While his stamina is unproven beyond 2,800m, without much competition for the lead, he can make a bold bid.
Quick ground is also crucial for SPANISH MISSION. He finished a well beaten sixth in this race last season, but has looked an improved performer since subsequently joining the Andrew Balding stable. He stuck to his task well when staying on from the back of the field for third in the Gold Cup, where he finished over a length ahead of STRADIVARIUS. On that run and his previous win at Doncaster over 3,600m, he brings the best form into this race and cannot be dismissed.
EMPEROR OF THE SUN was given far too much to do when held up at the rear in the Gold Cup. If given a more positive ride he could get closer than the fifth he managed at Ascot.
SELECTIONS: 10. STRADIVARIUS, 11. TRUESHAN, 9. SPANISH MISSION, 8. SIR RON PRIESTLEY & 3. EMPEROR OF THE SUN
S1-5 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap by Ben Cleminson
KING OF STARS is the horse owned by Bill Esdaile and if the rain stays away he will have a massive chance.
Very quick from the gates, this son of STARSPANGLEDBANNER has won twice this year over this distance and has been beaten by just a neck on his last two starts. His last effort was particularly impressive at Newmarket’s July meeting where he was denied by the hugely promising TWILIGHT CALLS. KING OF STARS is a very fast horse who should be perfectly suited to Goodwood’s quick downhill track, and with Michael Appleby’s horses running well, he has to be on the shortlist.
Charles Hills saddles REWAAYAT, a gelded son of PIVOTAL, who has been off the track since finishing fourth in a 1,000m handicap at Ascot. However, it was his reappearance second at Newmarket a couple of weeks before that really caught the eye. He was only denied by ARECIBO that day and Robert Cowell’s sprinter went on to finish second in the 1,000m G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. On that form he must have an excellent chance in this and he also has a very good record after a break so all looks set for a big run.
ONLY SPOOFING won this race 12 months ago when under the care of Jedd O’Keeffe. Now trained in Ireland by Kevin Coleman, he got his first win for his new trainer at Navan in a 1,000m handicap in May. After that he came over to Epsom to run in the ‘Dash’ Handicap on the Derby Stakes Day, the fastest race run anywhere in the world. He was a fine second that day, again showing his liking for a quick downhill track just like the one he faces here. Tom Marquand was on board that day and he is reunited with the 7YO in this.
My final selections are JABBAROCKIE and RECON MISSION. The former has won two of his last three starts and goes on any ground so he won’t mind what happens with the weather. RECON MISSION is another who likes downhill tracks, as he showed when winning over 1,000m at Epsom in April, and he has a decent claiming jockey in the saddle.
SELECTIONS: 8. KING OF STARS, 13. REWAAYAT, 9. ONLY SPOOFING, 2. JABBAROCKIE & 12. RECON MISSION
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 8. KING OF STARS
Selections – 13. REWAAYAT, 9. ONLY SPOOFING, 2. JABBAROCKIE & 12. RECON MISSION
S1-6:
Banker – 8. OLIVETTI
Selections – 9. SCATTERING, 7. MONET’S SUNRISE, 3. DANGEROUS RASCAL & 4. HARB
S1-6 2yo Maiden by Bill Esdaile
There are some well-bred newcomers engaged here, but previous experience counts a lot over this downhill dash up the straight 1,200m, so it might be worth taking a look at both camps.
William Haggas’s SCATTERING, who was an eye-catching third on his debut at Newcastle over 1,000m, will be sharper for that run on Tapeta, and his pedigree screams speed from start to finish. His sire, SHOWCASING, a high-class 2YO who was runner-up in the G2 Duke of York Stakes at three, was also responsible for ALKUMAIT, who won this race last year for Marcus Tregoning. Like the grandsire, EXCEED AND EXCEL, SHOWCASING has produced no end of speedballs.
Tregoning always targets this meeting with his better horses, and it is significant that he has snapped up champion jockey Oisin Murphy for OLIVETTI in his bid for back-to-back successes in the race. OLIVETTI, who is also by SHOWCASING, was getting the hang of things at the finish on his debut at Newbury over 1,200m, having started slowly, and with that experience behind him, he ought to be much sharper out of the gates.
Richard Hannon has a great record over this course, and he introduces a well-bred newcomer in MONET’S SUNRISE, who comes from the same family as the Cheveley Park Stakes and 1000 Guineas Stakes winner SPECIAL DUTY. MONET’S SURPRISE has already been gelded, but Hannon, whose youngsters have been in terrific form all season, has been delighted with what he has been showing at home. 1,200m could be his ideal trip, it is significant that Hannon has booked Ryan Moore to ride.
Another who has been impressing on the gallops is Mark Johnston’s newcomer HARB, who is by that top-class sprinter MUHAARAR. The trainer has been pleased with what he has seen in the mornings, and, like Hannon, Johnston also does particularly well at this meeting.
Tom Ward, who was formerly assistant to Hannon, will be anxious to put one over his old boss with his debutant, DANGEROUS RASCAL, an expensive DARK ANGEL colt. Subject of encouraging reports, he was a Breeze-Up purchase in the spring, and his dam was Group places over this 1,200m as a 2YO.
SELECTIONS: 8. OLIVETTI, 9. SCATTERING, 7. MONET’S SUNRISE, 3. DANGEROUS RASCAL & 4. HARB
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 8. OLIVETTI, 9. SCATTERING & 7. MONET’S SUNRISE
S1-7: Multiple – 5. POMELO, 6. ANGHAAM & 8. NEBULOSA
S1-8: Multiple – 4. GELLHORN, 6. ISABELLA SWAN & 7. LOVELY BREEZE
S1-7 3yo+ Fillies and Mares 76-95 Handicap by Bill Esdaile
POMELO was disappointing in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot, but the incredibly heavy ground was all against Ralph Beckett’s well-bred filly. That was her first start of the season and she was just too keen in the early stages. The form of her wins last year at Newbury over 1,400m and Wolverhampton over 1,729m gives her a good chance.
ANGHAAM also has a superb pedigree being by FRANKEL out of 1000 Guineas Stakes winner NATAGORA. She won nicely over 1,600m at Newmarket (July Course) in June when she seemed to enjoy being ridden prominently in a race run at no more than an average pace. That win was sandwiched by runs at Salisbury and Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m and 1,983m respectively when she failed to see out the longer distance well enough. She will enjoy the return to 1,600m and Richard Hannon’s filly remains capable of better than she’s shown so far.
Andrew Balding is enjoying a tremendous season and he relies on NEBULOSA from a group of several promising fillies he had entered in this race. She showed she handles this unique track when winning over 1,400m on her seasonal reappearance in May. Things haven’t gone to plan since then but there have been valid excuses. She got bogged down on heavy ground in a hot 1,634m Haydock contest and was then unsuited by being held up over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course). The return to this longer distance will help NEBULOSA and it always helps to have course form at Goodwood.
ANANYA hasn’t run for the best part of two years but she could easily run well. She was not disgraced in Group races over 1,400m and 1,600m for Peter Chapple-Hyam having been an impressive winner of a 1,400m Newmarket (July Course) novice race. This will be her debut for Sir Mark Prescott and she should perform with credit.
SELECTIONS: 5. POMELO, 6. ANGHAAM, 8. NEBULOSA & 1. ANANYA
S1-8 World Pool Fillies Handicap by Bill Esdaile
A competitive 1,200m fillies handicap, where there looks to be plenty of competition for the lead, so a strong pace can be expected.
Several of these runners have met before and a key form line looks the Newmarket (July Course) race over 1,200m where GELLHORN beat LOVELY BREEZE, with others from this field in behind. While the winner was keen through the early stages of that race, once settling into a rhythm she travelled strongly and looked to be well on top at the finish, running the final 400m in a good time. A stronger pace to aim at will suit this filly and there is every chance she can defy a small rise in the weights. Any rain would not be an issue as she has form on soft ground when trained in France.
Course form is always worth looking out for at Goodwood and the eye is drawn to the lightly raced 3YO ISABELLA SWAN who won over this 1,200m two starts ago. She also had LOVELY BREEZE behind her that day and while she may have been better positioned throughout the race than that rival, she won with some authority. That looks strong form, but Clive Cox’s filly will need to have revived after her below par run at Bath over 1,145m most recently.
Soft ground would be a concern for both ISABELLA SWAN and LOVELY BREEZE.
MOUNTAIN BRAVE won in a higher grade than this at Chester over 1,215m last time out and has only received a small rise in the weights for that success. Conditions set up perfectly for her that day, as she led from the start in a slowly run race. She will face competition for the lead here, and that factor, in combination with a revised mark she has struggled to defy in the past means she looks up against it for win purposes.
A filly that is sure to be suited by how this race is run is SHEPHERDS WAY. Julie Camacho’s filly ran behind MOUNTAIN BRAVE at Chester, but as a runner that is typically held up she was always going to struggle to close down the leader off a slow pace. She stayed on willingly all the way to the line that day, running better closing sectionals than the winner. Off the same mark, she should get a better lead into this race and looks capable of turning that form around.
SELECTIONS: 4. GELLHORN, 6. ISABELLA SWAN, 7. LOVELY BREEZE, 5. SHEPHERDS WAY & 1. MOUNTAIN BRAVE
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