 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Sussex Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 3yo 0-105 Handicap
Godolphin-owned horses can do little wrong at the moment and their SISKANY looks to hold solid claims in this 2,403m handicap.
The son of DUBAWI comes into this after a decent showing in the King George V Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot where he was just touched off to finish fourth. Prior to that, he was an impressive winner of a 1,990m handicap at Sandown on soft ground. He’d won previously on quick at Windsor over 2,000m, so is versatile when it comes to the surface and looks a leading player here.
Mark Johnston is a master when it comes to Goodwood handicaps, and he’s booked Ryan Moore to ride GLEN AGAIN. The 3YO has been very consistent this season and ran a great race when third at Ascot last time over 2,392m. He bumped into two progressive types there and this is arguably an easier race. His win at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance on turf over 2,045m showed his liking for soft ground, so he’ll have no issues if the rain arrives.
NAGANO finished sixth in the aforementioned King George V Stakes last time, but it’s a performance that can be marked up given he met no luck in running. He was bumped on a couple of occasions by the eventual winner which appeared to knock all of the energy out of Roger Varian’s gelding. That was just his fourth career start, and you feel there could be plenty more to come, although he’s yet to race on soft ground.
Frankie Dettori gets the leg up on PIED PIPER, owned by Her Majesty The Queen. The son of NEW APPROACH was last seen in a 2,400m handicap at Newmarket (July Course) where he looked sure to play a big role entering the final stages, but his challenge petered out. That was a more than adequate run, though, and off the same mark here, he could have a role to play.
Finally, there could be more to come from FABILIS. He ran a nice race on his first start of the season at Sandown over 1,990m, before a below par run in the G2 2,200m Derby Italiano. However, he bounced back to somewhere near his best when second at Ascot where he bumped into a very progressive horse. FABILIS got a tad outpaced that day, so a step up to 2,403m looks a wise move.
SELECTIONS: 1. SISKANY, 10. GLEN AGAIN, 6. NAGANO, 3. FABILIS & 8. PIED PIPER
S2-2 Oak Tree Stakes
Charlie Fellowes has two big players for this competitive fillies G3 in VADREAM and ONASSIS, and the weekend rain has enhanced both their chances as the pair have proven form in the mud.
ONASSIS won three races last season, including one on testing ground over 1,400m at the same course. She carried a penalty in the Listed 1,600m Prix de Bagatelle at Chantilly, having previously also won the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With just the two runs this season, ONASSIS comes here fresher than most. She was unplaced in the G2 1,600m Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Ascot this year, but it was her first race since October and the ground was also faster than it had been last season. ONASSIS then dropped back to 1,200m at York but, though she finished her race off strongly, she couldn’t really handle the early pace. Back up in trip here and on her favoured ground, ONASSIS ticks all the right boxes.
However, 3YOs have won five of the last nine runnings of this race and younger stablemate VADREAM, who finished in front of ONASSIS at York, also comes into the mix. She was an excellent sixth in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m and then showed that was no fluke when third to CREATIVE FORCE in the 1,400m G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
BOUNCE THE BLUES has made phenomenal improvements since joining Andrew Balding from Ireland last autumn. She was desperately unlucky not to beat the German filly in the G3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield over 1,400m in May and then lost nothing in defeat when third to the boys in the Listed Midsummer Stakes at Windsor over 1,628m.
The form of northern raider HIGHFIELD PRINCESS just gets better and better. She is enjoying a lucrative season, landing three of her last four races, the winning spree having started in soft ground at Haydock over 1,393m in May. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS’ Buckingham Palace Stakes success over 1,400m at the Royal meeting was given a handsome boost when runner-up DANYAH won a competitive 3yo+ Handicap at Ascot on 24th July.
SACRED, who has finished in the first two in five of her seven races, failed to stay in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m but she had previously beaten a strong field in the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 1,400m.
SELECTIONS: 8. ONASSIS, 2. BOUNCE THE BLUES, 17. VADREAM, 4. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 10. SACRED
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 8. ONASSIS
Selections – 2. BOUNCE THE BLUES, 17. VADREAM, 4. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 10. SACRED
S2-3:
Banker – 6. FEARBY
Selections – 5. CHIPOTLE, 2. ARMOR, 3. BOONIE & 4. CHIMGAN
S2-3 Molecomb Stakes
In the last ten years, this race has been won six times by horses that ran at Royal Ascot.
The impressive winner of the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes, CHIPOTLE is easy to fancy. His closing sectionals in that race were better than anything his rivals have achieved. While he flopped when sent off favourite for Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m at Newbury most recently, he can be excused that effort given he was repeatedly hampered inside the final 200m. In this smaller field he should be able to keep out of trouble, although soft ground would be a slight concern.
ARMOR and BOONIE finished behind CHIPOTLE in the Windsor Castle Stakes, having all raced together on the far side of the track. Richard Hannon’s ARMOR was making only his second career start that day, whereas CHIPOTLE had run three times previously. He still looked a bit green towards the end of the race at Ascot but finished off his race well for fifth. With more improvement likely, he should be able to get closer to CHIPOTLE. In contrast, BOONIE faded towards the finish and that is twice now that ARMOR has looked vulnerable in a finish. He looks the pace angle in the race and this sharp 1,000m will suit him better than Ascot, but he is likely to come up short again. Royal Ascot form is not essential as a guide to the winner of this contest.
Trainer Edward Bethell’s decision to swerve an engagement at Ascot with FEARBY and run in the Listed 1,009m Dragon Stakes at Sandown, was justified at the beginning of this month. He won easily in the hands of Patrick McDonald, streaking clear in the closing stages. While the rivals he beat that day are not up to this calibre, it was an effort that needs marking up considering he raced without cover for much of the race. That win came on good-to-soft ground, proving he handles an easier surface, which gives him an advantage over many in this field who are unproven with cut in the ground.
Clive Cox’s horses are running well and it’s interesting that he brings CHIMGAN here for just his second career start. He won his Novice at Nottingham earlier this month and could be anything.
SELECTIONS: 6. FEARBY, 5. CHIPOTLE, 2. ARMOR, 3. BOONIE & 4. CHIMGAN
S2-4 Sussex Stakes
POETIC FLARE looks set to light up the G1 Sussex Stakes. The 1,600m division has become a little stale in recent years and it is ripe for some fresh blood.
Jim Bolger’s POETIC FLARE has looked a top-notch 3YO in a busy start to the season. He stepped up on his comeback win over 1,400m at Leopardstown when just hanging on to win the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket. He bounced back from his slightly disappointing effort in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains over 1,600m just six days later when narrowly touched off in the 1,600m G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh. It was a productive first few months of the season but the best was still to come. He destroyed a competitive field to land the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot and that makes him the one to beat.
SNOW LANTERN runs in this race rather than the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m later in the week. She is progressing rapidly as her defeat of the G1 1000 Guineas winner MOTHER EARTH and ALCOHOL FREE in the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket (July Course) three weeks ago shows. There should be even more to come so she looks the main threat.
Versatile ALCOHOL FREE has been one of the flagbearers of Andrew Balding’s terrific start to the season. She kicked off with a narrow 1,400m victory in the G3 Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury before finishing a creditable fifth in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m. The heavy ground at Royal Ascot was no problem when she beat SNOW LANTERN in the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m.
TILSIT comes into this race on an upward curve. He was touched off in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m in May before putting in a personal best performance to see off CENTURY DREAM in the 1,594m G2 Summer Mile at Ascot. Charles Hills’ runner is still improving.
French raider DUHAIL seemed to find the drop to 1,400m too sharp for him in the G3 Prix du Palais-Royal at ParisLongchamp in 30th May. His G2 victory in the Prix du Muguet over 1,600m at Saint-Cloud earlier in that month was a good effort but he still has a bit to prove at this G1 level.
SELECTIONS: 9. POETIC FLARE, 11. SNOW LANTERN, 10. ALCOHOL FREE, 6. TILSIT & 2. DUHAIL
S2-5 2yo Fillies Conditions
CANONIZED is gunning for her fourth win of the season in this 1,000m 2yo Fillies Conditions.
She was successful over this sharp course and distance in May and she ran a sound race when runner-up in a Listed contest at York a couple of weeks later. William Haggas’ filly had its third win in this season, including the 1,019m novice and conditions races at Windsor in June. She has plenty of pace and sets a high standard for the others to aim at.
ILLUSTRATING created a good impression when she beat the more experienced runners in a fair 1,000m fillies’ novice race at Catterick Bridge on her debut. Trainer Karl Burke stuck her straight into the 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot just 12 days later and she wasn’t disgraced in seventh behind QUICK SUZY. There’s a good chance she will take a big step forward with that run behind her.
Richard Fahey saddled the runner-up in this race two years ago and his LA FEILE is an interesting contender. She was unfancied in the betting for her debut over 1,000m at Beverley when taking on experienced fillies. Despite missing the break and finding traffic problems she showed a stack of ability to get up to win in the closing stages. The soft ground won’t be a problem and she should not be underestimated.
VERTIGINOUS ran a promising race when second at Bath over 1,009m on her debut. She was thrown into the deep end for her second start when lining up in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot but she ran a cracker to finish fifth. This track promises to suit Brian Meehan’s filly even better.
The speed figures experts were all excited after FLOTUS made an incredibly impressive debut over 1,200m on soft ground at this track in May. Things haven’t gone to plan since then but the return to Goodwood could do the trick. She was bitterly disappointing when favourite for the 1,200m G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and she pulled too hard in the 1,200m G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) last time. It’s easy to see why she is being tried over 1,000m for the first time.
SELECTIONS: 2. CANONIZED, 5. ILLUSTRATING, 6. LA FEILE, 9. VERTIGINOUS & 3. FLOTUS
2nd DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 2. CANONIZED
Selections – 5. ILLUSTRATING, 6. LA FEILE, 9. VERTIGINOUS & 3. FLOTUS
S2-6:
Banker – 7. ACHELOIS
Selections – 6. PRADO, 5. SEATTLE ROCK, 9. PERCY’S PRIDE & 8. TIMELESS SOUL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 2. CANONIZED, 5. ILLUSTRATING & 6. LA FEILE
S2-6: Multiple – 7. ACHELOIS, 6. PRADO & 5. SEATTLE ROCK
S2-7: Multiple – 2. SUNSET BREEZE, 3. CORVAIR & 18. INTERNATIONALDREAM
S2-6 3yo+ Fillies and Mares 86-105 Handicap
PRADO steps up to 1,984m for the first time, but being a half-sister to ENTRUSTED, who was runner-up over 2,000m at Sha Tin in June, the switch could well be what she needs.
Runner-up in the 1,400m G3 Prestige Stakes over this course last August, PRADO, though by IFFRAAJ, gets the stamina from her dam’s side. She is better than she looked in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at the Royal Ascot meeting, and Jamie Spencer knows the filly well.
The distaff side of ACHELOIS’ pedigree suggests that she, too, has been crying out for a stiffer test. She enjoys soft ground as she showed when producing a career-best performance to win at Ascot over 1,600m three weeks ago. Indeed, easy ground is not just preferable for ACHELOIS, it is essential. She also travelled like a dream when earlier winning in the mud at Newbury.
Another who could be revitalised by going up in distance is SEATTLE ROCK, whose dam, SNOQUALMIE GIRL, came into her own when tackling a stamina test, finishing third in the Princess Royal Stakes over 2,400m at Ascot. SEATTLE ROCK, who was only a head behind PRADO in the aforementioned Prestige Stakes last year, has been highly tried in Pattern company. She was even pitched into the 1000 Guineas, which, unsurprisingly, exposed her limitations. However, SEATTLE ROCK finished off her race strongly when subsequently winning a novice at Newbury over 1,600m, encouraging connections to take the route her pedigree was suggesting.
Local trainer William Knight targets this prestigious meeting at the start of every season, and in PERCY’S PRIDE, he has a filly who is on a hat-trick. PERCY’S PRIDE, victorious both at Chelmsford City over 2,000m and Ascot over 2,392m, is proven at the trip and the ground. Another plus is that she’ll definitely be staying on when others have run out of stamina.
TIMELESS SOUL is less exposed than most of these. Unraced at two, she only won a maiden at Beverley over 1,691m, but it was noticeable how much better she handled the soft ground that day than she had faster conditions on her debut at Haydock. Indeed, it was probably the quick ground which found her out when she was beaten into third at Thirsk over 1,598m last time. These conditions will suit her much better.
SELECTIONS: 7. ACHELOIS, 6. PRADO, 5. SEATTLE ROCK, 9. PERCY’S PRIDE & 8. TIMELESS SOUL
S2-7 World Pool Handicap
Favourites have just a 14% strike rate in handicaps at Glorious Goodwood over the past decade and the 1,409m World Pool Handicap looks another tricky puzzle for punters to solve.
No trainer gives the handicapper nightmares more than Sir Mark Prescott, and his SUNSET BREEZE, who scored three times on the bounce last season, has to be respected. He’s now rated a fair bit above his last winning mark and has to give weight away to all bar one of the runners field, but this 1,409m contest could be the ideal race for him to get his head back in front. It looks as though he’ll get his preferred ground with rain forecast, while Goodwood’s sharp track with its downhill gradients should pose no problems to a three-time winner over 1,200m.
CORVAIR wears cheekpieces for the first time and is an interesting contender for the Simon & Ed Crisford team. The form of his run when third over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) last time out is working out quite well, with the winner of that race finishing second in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Ascot last weekend. The question mark with him is whether he’ll act on softer ground.
INTERNATIONALDREAM lingers towards the foot of the weights and is winless in his last six starts. As a result, he is back down to a reasonable mark and could run into the frame if back to somewhere near his best. There were signs of a return to form last time out when sixth over the 1,405m on good-to-firm ground at Doncaster, while he’s also proven on a softer surface.
Similar comments apply to EPIC ENDEAVOUR, who is yet to get his head in front in three starts this term, all over around 1,600m. The return to 1,409m, the potential for soft ground and a nice drop in the handicap helps tick a lot of boxes.
Though hard to recommend for win purposes, QUEENS SARGENT could pop up amongst the places if running back to form. All of the grey’s five career wins have come over 1,400m trip, while he looks super versatile in terms of ground, having won on heavy and good-to-firm.
SELECTIONS: 2. SUNSET BREEZE, 3. CORVAIR, 18. INTERNATIONALDREAM, 6. EPIC ENDEAVOUR & 12. QUEEN'S SARGENT
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