 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nassau Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo Handicap
It always pays dividends to follow Mark Johnston in a Goodwood handicap and this 1,984m contest is no different as KING FRANKEL looks to hold solid claims.
The 3YO has been pretty consistent during his career so far having finished outside of the placings just three times from nine starts. He comes into this after a below par performance at Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m, but the run was too bad to be true and it’s best to concentrate on his previous efforts at Ascot and particularly Epsom over 1,993m and 2,015m respectively, where he looked a progressive type. He has form on soft ground too, so looks poised to play a big role.
Johnston looks to hold a pretty strong hand in the race as his MR EXCELLENCY looks a real improver. Having won a Southwell novice stakes over 1,600m in March, he’s improved steadily and has put in a string of solid performances, including back-to-back wins at Newmarket (July Course) and Chepstow over 2,000m most recently. He’ll need to take a step forward again here, and this will be the softest ground he’s encountered, but he’s likely to be there or thereabouts.
AERION POWER is lighter in experience having had seven starts, but he’s another improving contender. Sir Michael Stoute’s son of KINGMAN rattled off a hat-trick of wins at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021 over 1,400m to 1,600m, and those victories saw him quietly fancied for the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. He finished down the field there but did make late progress at the finish and so was stepped up to 2,039m at Doncaster, where he ran very well considering the weight he was giving away to the eventual winner.
Jim Crowley gets the leg up on ALFAADHEL for the Roger Varian team. He was last seen finishing ninth in the Golden Gates Stakes over 1,993m, with KING FRANKEL further ahead in fourth. Varian’s runner won contests at Chester over 2,064m and Lingfield over 2,000m nicely before that, though, and there could be more to come from this lightly-raced son of NIGHT OF THUNDER.
The placings can be completed by Ralph Beckett’s PATIENT DREAM. He looks sure to appreciate conditions after his win on soft ground at Windsor over 2,000m last time. Winning this requires another step forward, but the horse who finished runner-up to him at Windsor has run well subsequently so there is some substance to the form.
SELECTIONS: 5. KING FRANKEL, 2. AERION POWER, 4. ALFAADHEL, 8. PATIENT DREAM & 6. MR EXCELLENCY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 5. KING FRANKEL
Selections – 2. AERION POWER, 4. ALFAADHEL, 8. PATIENT DREAM & 6. MR EXCELLENCY
S1-2:
Banker – 2. ASYMMETRIC
Selections – 6. GUBBASS, 5. GIS A SUB & 4. EBRO RIVER
S1-2 Richmond Stakes
MEHMAS, winner of the G2 1,200m Richmond Stakes back in 2016, is represented by two of his progeny this year, including recent Weatherbys Super Sprint winner, GUBBASS.
Like his sire, he’s also trained by Richard Hannon, who does so well with his juveniles, and remains unbeaten in two career starts. The question marks are that he’s now stepping up in trip for the first time and looks set to encounter unfamiliar underfoot conditions. Both of his previous runs have come on quick ground, but that’s not to say he won’t handle a softer surface, particularly when taking into account the influence of LOPE DE VEGA on the dam’s side.
Kevin Ryan is another trainer to be respected in these hot 2YO contest and his GIS A SUB arrives here with every chance. He was narrowly beaten on debut over 1,200m at York, largely as a result of inexperience and hanging left when hitting the front, but he got his head in front at the second time of asking over the same distance at Pontefract. He’s still learning his job and should be in the mix if taking another step forward.
With two wins and a second from three runs, all over this 1,200m trip and on ground ranging from good-to-firm to good-to-soft, ASYMMETRIC has very solid claims. The son of SHOWCASING won on debut over the same course and distance, which is a bonus given the unique nature of Goodwood, while his only defeat came in the 1,200m G2 July Stakes. He was denied by just a head that day in a very tight finish and a reproduction of that run would see him go close once again.
Royal Ascot winner PERFECT POWER returns after a six-week break and has to be respected. He’s stepping up to 1,200m for the first time but the way he hit the line after Ascot’s stiff 1,000m was encouraging. He does have to carry a penalty for his Royal Ascot success, though.
One horse who looks set to get his favoured soft ground is EBRO RIVER. He’s two from two on soft, including when romping home by over three lengths at Sandown, and has to be on the shortlist.
SELECTIONS: 2. ASYMMETRIC, 6. GUBBASS, 5. GIS A SUB & 4. EBRO RIVER
S1-3 Gordon Stakes
Almost 50mm of rain has fallen since Sunday, so this promises to be a real slog in heavy ground, and it will be the courageous mud-lover who has an abundant stamina who comes out on top.
Godolphin are enjoying a fabulous summer with their middle-distance horses, and, though not in the ADAYAR or HURRICANE LANE class, the boys in blue have another 2,403m star in YIBIR, who has looked pretty good – and even better since he was gelded. That trip to the vets was after he had finished second to LONE EAGLE in a Listed race over 2,240m here in May. And that form received the perfect boost when LONE EAGLE subsequently finished a neck second in the 2,400m G1 Irish Derby. YIBIR looked much more focused after his operation when reappearing in the 2,600m G3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket’s July meeting. More professional, he was in total command throughout. However, the big worry is the penalty, which means he has to give weight to Aidan O’Brien’s classy colt WORDSWORTH.
WORDSWORTH is a real grinder and, though a well-beaten third in the G1 Irish Derby, he then produced his best run yet in soft ground in the 2,400m G1 Grand Prix de Paris at ParisLongchamp, splitting Curragh hero HURRICANE LANE and Royal Ascot’s G2 King Edward VII Stakes winner ALENQUER.
THIRD REALM beat ADAYAR fair and square in the Derby Trial Stakes over 2,321m at Lingfield, but the Godolphin superstar turned the form around by nearly 12 lengths when the pair renewed battle at the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m. Roger Varian, who had felt that THIRD REALM would love the ups and downs of Epsom, admits that the colt never looked comfortable on the gradients, having taken an early bump in the race. However, the trainer remains convinced that THIRD REALM is a G1 horse, so ignore him at your peril, especially as he, too, has form in soft ground.
ALEAS started favourite to beat YIBIR in that Listed race over 2,240m at Goodwood in May, but he hung all the way up the straight and never looked happy on the track. He left that disappointment behind when winning in the Listed race at Hamilton over 2,214m and the rain definitely brings him into the equation.
OTTOMAN EMPEROR has rattled off a hat-trick in less than three months, and, while he will need to progress again on his runs Cork, Gowran Park and Navan over 1,891m to 2,036m, one senses that there is more to come.
SELECTIONS: 8. WORDSWORTH, 1. YIBIR, 7. THIRD REALM & 3. ALEAS
S1-4 Nassau Stakes
There have been some stellar international winners of the G1 Nassau stakes, with five of the last six winners. Coolmore, in particular, have a very good record in this G1 in recent years, having sent out four winners in the last decade, including MINDING and WINTER.
They also look to have another strong chance with JOAN OF ARC. Her impressive win in the 2,100m G1 Prix de Diane put her narrow defeat in the 1,600m G1 Irish 1000 Guineas behind her. Furthermore, she’s never finished out of the first two when running on heavy ground, so her credentials are strong particularly with her weight for 3YO allowance.
5YOs do not have a particularly good record in the race, but the two 5YO mares in the line-up, LADY BOWTHORPE and AUDARYA, are the strongest contenders for the home team.
LADY BOWTHORPE has been competing at the highest level throughout this summer and has lost nothing in defeat since her victory at Newmarket over 1,800m on her seasonal bow. She finished a close second to PALACE PIER in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m and based on her fast finishing fourth in the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m last time, she looks ready for this step up in trip.
AUDARYA, already a multiple G1 winner, returned from a 220-day break with an agonisingly close defeat at the hands of dual classic winner LOVE in the 1,993m G1 Prince of Wales's Stakes. It was a superb effort after a break, and she’ll surely be in even better shape here with top jockey William Buick retaining the ride. She looks poised to go very close here, although the form did take a knock in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot over the weekend.
ZEYAADAH ran no sort of race in the G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom over 2,405m with perhaps the course and conditions going against her, so there have to be question marks over ability to handle the intricacies of Goodwood. She’s another who has form on soft ground and comes into this after a confidence-building win at Newcastle over 2,038m last time.
EMPRESS JOSEPHINE is on somewhat of a retrieval mission after a disappointing effort at Royal Ascot where she finished down the field in the 1,594m G1 Coronation Stakes. The G1 Irish 1000 Guineas winner prior to that Royal Ascot effort, she has form on testing conditions, but does need to bounce back here.
SELECTIONS: 4. JOAN OF ARC, 1. AUDARYA, 2. LADY BOWTHORPE & 6. ZEYAADAH
S1-5 2yo Handicap
ADJUVANT has strong claims of stretching his unbeaten run to three victories in this 1,409m handicap for 2YOs.
He was forced to race wide from a poor draw around Chester’s tight turns on his debut but still managed to make a winning start to his career in that 1,401m maiden. His finishing burst was most impressive and he followed up with a taking victory over 1,394m at Salisbury nearly three weeks ago. There’s every chance he is well weighted for his first run in a handicap.
ARDBRACCAN chased home top prospect INSPIRAL when upped to 1,400m for her second start at Newmarket (July Course) in June when CALM SKIES was back in third. She showed a great attitude to again get the better of CALM SKIES when landing a fillies’ maiden over 1,400m in Newmarket (July Course) nearly three weeks ago. Richard Hannon’s filly doesn’t look badly treated on that form and she looks like she should develop into a consistent 2YO.
Trainer Mark Johnston has won this race three times in the last seven years. His HIGHLAND PREMIERE is progressing well and he should have sound claims. He won at the third attempt when making all the running over 1,205m at Hamilton in June and he showed much-improved form upped to 1,405m for the first time when successful on soft ground at Catterick Bridge. The way he pulled right away from some fair rivals down the straight was most impressive and, while this will be tougher, he is clearly thriving.
Another Johnston runner, WHITEFEATHERSFALL, is still a maiden after three starts but he’s shown some smart form. His neck second behind smart Godolphin juvenile ALBAHR in a 1,393m novice race, when the first two finished well clear, was a cracking effort. It was a little disappointing he couldn’t get off the mark over 1,403m last time out but the track at Epsom probably didn’t suit this strong stayer.
SOUTH AUDLEY enjoyed being ridden prominently when easily landing a 1,216m Nottingham maiden in June. The form of that race hasn’t worked out at all badly and he is bred to like the step up to 1,409m for the first time. There’s every chance he will find plenty of improvement over this longer distance.
SELECTIONS: 2. ADJUVANT, 3. ARDBRACCAN, 7. HIGHLAND PREMIERE, 1. WHITEFEATHERSFALL & 6. SOUTH AUDLEY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. ADJUVANT
Selections – 3. ARDBRACCAN, 7. HIGHLAND PREMIERE, 1. WHITEFEATHERSFALL & 6. SOUTH AUDLEY
S1-6:
Banker – 18. WILDERNESS GIRL
Selections – 5. HELENE, 12. SHOUTOUT, 14. SILVERDALE & 17. VINTAGE FASHION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. ADJUVANT, 3. ARDBRACCAN & 7. HIGHLAND PREMIERE
S1-6: Multiple – 18. WILDERNESS GIRL, 5. HELENE & 12. SHOUTOUT
S1-7: Multiple – 2. TWILIGHT CALLS, 5. WHENTHEDEALINSDONE & 8. SHOWALONG
S1-6 2yo Fillies Maiden
Races don’t get much harder than a large field size of 1,409m fillies’ maiden on soft ground at Glorious Goodwood, but we will try our best!
Andrew Balding has booked William Buick to ride WILDERNESS GIRL who made a pleasing debut at Newmarket (July Course) earlier this month on good-to-firm over 1,400m. A daughter of NO NAY NEVER, whose offspring surprisingly have quite a good record on soft ground, she was well backed that day and you’d expect her to come on for the run. Balding has had a great season and this filly looks one of the most promising in the line-up.
Another filly with racecourse experience is Richard Hannon’s HELENE who has finished third on both her starts over 1,200m at Newbury. They have been solid efforts and as a daughter of OLYMPIC GLORY you can be sure she will appreciate this step up to 1,409m. The ground is a question mark, as it is with all of these fillies, but having experience will be a big advantage in the conditions.
SHOUTOUT is the sole representative of Qatar Racing Limited with champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle. There is plenty of soft ground form on the dam’s side of her pedigree which gives some hope that she will be able to handle conditions. Ralph Beckett is a master trainer of fillies and his yard are in flying form at the moment, so she has to go on the shortlist.
SILVERDALE ran an eyecatching race on debut in a 1,200m novice race at Newbury earlier this month. It was good-to-soft that day which gives encouragement that she’ll be able to handle even more testing conditions in this. She stayed on nicely at the finish, looking like the extra 200m would help, and hopefully she can put her experience to good use.
Mark Johnston must always be respected at this meeting and with Ryan Moore on his debutant VINTAGE FASHION, she is another to consider. She has an entry in the valuable sales race at Doncaster in September so you’d hope that she’s been showing some ability at home.
SELECTIONS: 18. WILDERNESS GIRL, 5. HELENE, 12. SHOUTOUT, 14. SILVERDALE & 17. VINTAGE FASHION
S1-7 World Pool Handicap
An obvious starting place here is Henry Candy’s TWILIGHT CALLS.
This imposing son of TWILIGHT SON has been sent off favourite for each of his three starts this season, winning on two occasions. On handicap debut at Leicester over 1,200m, he ran into a smart rival but made amends most recently at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,000m. He picked his way through the field that day to win far more comfortably than his narrow margin of victory would suggest. The overall time of that race was a fast one, suggesting he should be capable of following up in this company, despite a rise in the weights. However, with the weather continuing to be unsettled the prospect of soft ground would ask questions of this horse, as he has run on nothing worse than good-to-soft.
WHENTHEDEALINSDONE beat TWILIGHT CALLS in maiden stakes last season and there may not be much between them once again. William Buick reassumes his partnership with this horse, who he rode to victory at Windsor over 1,019m two starts ago. WHENTHEDEALINSDONE then contested a competitive 1,200m handicap at Newmarket (July Course), where he ran better than his finishing position suggested. He held the lead entering the final 200m of that race, only fading late on. He is one from one over 1,019m and this drop back to this trip should suit him. This also represents a drop in grade. A third on soft ground last season also suggests he should have no issues with the going.
Soft ground looks important for SHOWALONG who is two from two on an easy surface. He is held in high regard by trainer Tim Easterby and interestingly holds an entry in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m. While he finished well down the field at Ascot over 1,000m recently, that came on quicker ground and he looked to be drawn on the wrong side of the track.
DIGITAL has yet to rediscover his excellent 2YO form. Trainer Kevin Ryan has won this race twice in the last 10 years, and with DIGITAL only running twice this season to date, this may have been the plan. He is another who should be well suited to 1,000m on soft ground. If he can return to the form of 2020, his current mark looks to underestimate him.
NOMADIC EMPIRE has run two solid races in a higher grade the last twice. He doesn’t look well treated in the weights but should run his race once again.
SELECTIONS: 2. TWILIGHT CALLS, 5. WHENTHEDEALINSDONE, 8. SHOWALONG, 12. DIGITAL & 1. NOMADIC EMPIRE
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