 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Champions Cup Day (S2) (Jack Milner)
S2-2 Umngeni Handicap
There are a number of runners capable of claiming victory in the Listed Umngeni Handicap over 1,000m, but the one contender who seems to tick all the boxes is SPYDAS CORNER.
Trained by Duncan Howells, this 3YO is in great form, with two wins from his last three outings. This son of WHAT A WINTER also loves the surface and distance, and is well drawn in barrier 5. Jockey Keagan de Melo, who has partnered the gelding in his last three runs, retains the ride and the pair look set to build on their impeccable record.
When it comes to form, it’s difficult to make an accurate assessment of Dennis Drier’s PRAY FOR RAIN. This SOFT FALLING RAIN gelding has been out of action for eight months. Before that, he contested inter alia three Graded events, scoring two runner-up finishes and a third. Most impressive was his second-place finish in the G1 Golden Horse Medallion. According to Drier, the long lay-off was necessitated after PRAY FOR RAIN fell victim to a virus in Cape Town, and then suffered the same fate on his return to KwaZulu-Natal. The trainer is adamant that his charge can pick up where he left off before his career was interrupted. Will get a first taste of the polytrack.
Another who will be making his polytrack debut is VALYRIAN KING. Trained by Paul Matchett, this gelding only knows how to race from the front. Drawn widest of all in barrier 12, he will have to fly in order to avoid taking the scenic route to the post. To make matters worse, he is not used to racing around a right-handed track, with 14 of his 15 career runs down a straight track. He did win his only effort round a turn – over 1,000m on the Turffontein inside track for his maiden win when drawn barrier 5.
The dark horse is 4YO filly TRUE CHARM. She’s in great form, having recorded three consecutive top-three finishes for the first time in her 23-race career. A definite runner who should run into the money carrying a light weight.
Top-weighted and top-rated NO LAYING UP has been unlucky with the draw. He earned a merit rating of 105 after only two runs as juvenile, which included his third place in the G1 Golden Horse Medallion. Trainer Vaughan Marshall is confident he will be competitive despite carrying 132lbs, but the draw is a concern.
SELECTIONS: 5. SPYDAS CORNER, 1. PRAY FOR RAIN, 12. VALYRIAN KING, 7. TRUE CHARM & 11. NO LAYING UP
S2-3 The Debutante
2YO fillies could put on the catfight of the day. A number of exceptional fillies are set to line up this G2 event over 1,200m, The Debutante, for 2YO fillies.
TWICE THE TRIP, LOOK YOURSELF, PAITYNS PRIDE, REMEMBER WHEN, and SASHAY AWAY all have claims, and the ability to pull it off.
TWICE THE TRIP, trained by Sean Tarry, was the only filly to contest the G2 Durban Golden Horseshoe on Durban July Day. Although the official record shows her finishing seventh, she was just 2.1 lengths behind the winner. Her official finishing time in that race suggests she would have finished runner-up had she contested the equivalent event for the fairer sex. To describe this TWICE OVER filly as a strong contender, is somewhat of an understatement.
Paul Matchett’s LOOK YOURSELF is also no slouch and promises to more than just contest the finish. This GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT filly ran 0.50 lengths behind RAIN IN HOLLAND second time out back in April. The latter has gone on to win three more times, so the form has been more than franked.
PAITYNS PRIDE, trained by Candice Dawson, made racing look easy on debut with a 2.75 length victory over the Turffontein inside course. Jumping up the steep incline, she started slowly, as expected, but flew over the final 400m in 22.7 seconds. With that turn of foot, she can come off the pace again to contest the finish.
REMEMBER WHEN is another with a tremendous turn of foot, and a fighting spirit to match. J A Janse van Vuuren’s charge refused to give up when seriously challenged over the last 400m on debut and managed to plant a knockout punch close to the line.
Drawn widest of all for the second consecutive time, SASHAY AWAY must think the racing gods are not on her side. Last time out she jumped from barrier 14 over today’s course and distance, but still managed to score by a staggering 4.30 lengths to exit the maiden ranks. Don’t be surprised if lightning strikes twice. She must be included in selections.
SELECTIONS: 1. TWICE THE TRIP, 7. LOOK YOURSELF, 5. PAITYNS PRIDE, 6. REMEMBER WHEN & 12. SASHAY AWAY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 1. TWICE THE TRIP
Selections – 7. LOOK YOURSELF, 5. PAITYNS PRIDE, 6. REMEMBER WHEN & 12. SASHAY AWAY
S2-4:
Banker – 10. DOCKOFTHEBAY
Selections – 7. GALLIC CHIEF, 2. DYCE, 8. ISIVUNGUVUNGU & 4. BON VIVANT
S2-4 Umkhomazi Stakes
Sean Tarry is intent on getting his chief owner, Chris van Niekerk, over the line in a hotly contested race as South Africa’s Champion owner.
DOCKOFTHEBAY was a narrow winner on debut in January and made his next appearance in a strong fixed-weights race against older horses where he finished a five-length fourth. That run will have brought the colt on. He does have a tricky draw at barrier 10 but can make a big impact.
Gareth van Zyl is one of the country’s bright young trainers whose horses have been in a good space in feature company of late. GALLIC CHIEF ran a cracker from the worst of the draws in a G2 last time out, only weakening late. He shows plenty of promise and this shorter trip should see him go close.
DYCE has yet to finish out of the money. He won a maiden on 22nd June by a massive 9.25 lengths but was a touch disappointing next time after proving difficult at the start and then missing the break. A tardy start will cost him in this race as he does have an inside gate and he may find himself shuffled back early.
ISIVUNGUVUNGU’s jockey was on the wrong end of a savage attempt when in contention and starting at long odds in a G1. The colt did well to finish nearly three lengths off and the jockey and trainer are in mustard form.
BON VIVANT is a filly taking on males but was close-up behind the very promising BOLD ACT first up out of the maidens. She has the benefit of a top draw which will help her cause.
Of the balance, SILVER SALMON and EDGARTOWN have money chances.
SELECTIONS: 10. DOCKOFTHEBAY, 7. GALLIC CHIEF, 2. DYCE, 8. ISIVUNGUVUNGU & 4. BON VIVANT
S2-5 Thekwini Stakes
RAIN IN HOLLAND comes into the G1 Thekwini Stakes for 2YO fillies on a four-race winning streak and has only suffered defeat once in five starts.
Importantly, Sean Tarry’s filly is proven over the trip and took care of a field of males last time out. She has a mid-field draw and has plenty going for her.
Mike de Kock saddles the progressive BOLD ACT. She steps up to this trip for the first time, but her pedigree suggests she should have little trouble seeing it out.
Trainer Corne Spies labelled SUPREME QUEST as the one to beat in a restricted feature on Durban July and he proved on the mark as his filly kicked well clear of the opposition inside the final 200m. On that showing she will have no stamina doubts and she also has the benefit of the pole position draw, which is a big point in her favour. She has yet to finish out of the money.
PERFECT WITNESS has only had one outing and shed her maiden first time of asking. She, too, goes this trip for the first time but does boast a stout pedigree so should enjoy this step up in distance. She also comes from a stable that knows how to prep them for the big occasion.
KAILENE had the misfortune of bumping De Kock-trained DESERT MIRACLE last time out but in turn had some useful opposition behind her. She is holding form well, is comfortable on the track and should be in the firing line.
ETERNITY RING has been in the money in all six starts and her best form has been in blinkers with top rider S’manga Khumalo aboard. She has a stout pedigree and is the only runner on the card for visiting trainer Barend Botes.
SELECTIONS: 7. RAIN IN HOLLAND, 9. BOLD ACT, 1. SUPREME QUEST, 4. KAILENE & 6. PERFECT WITNESS
S2-6 Premiers Champion Stakes
Draw favours QUANTUM KING in G1 Premiers Champion Stakes. This is a wide-open contest and the list of possible winners is a long one.
QUANTUM KING was an impressive maiden winner at second time of asking. It was a 1,200m sprint but he led all the way and won as he liked. He jumps in trip but has the plum barrier 1 and should see this out comfortably.
WATERBERRY LANE came from well off the pace to land the G2 Golden Horseshoe last start in spite of a rough passage through the traffic so the wide draw should not be too much of a hindrance. But he meets a number of fast-improving opposition.
There should not be much between GAUDIS MASTERPIECE and WILLIAM ROBERTSON with 0.3 lengths separating them when last they met. The latter has the better draw this time around after jumping from an outside gate but the former only arrived on the scene late travelling line a runaway train and the extra will suit.
SAFE RETURN was gelded after two disappointing efforts and the operation seemed to have worked wonders as he came from the clouds to land his next race. He will definitely see out the extra 200m and his stable has had a tremendous few months as the season comes to a close.
Joe Soma saddles a brace of runners, but ANYTIME CHAMP would appear to be the stable elect judging by the rider bookings. The colt landed a nice touch on debut, galloping the opposition into the ground winning and winning without much fuss. The trip could be an issue.
EXCELLARATOR is another first-timer over the distance but has improved with each outing and the form of his recent success has been franked.
HONOKALANI and GOOD TRAVELLER may have had their winning chances compromised by their wide gates, but both are capable of finishing in the money given some luck in running.
SELECTIONS: 1. QUANTUM KING, 10. WATERBERRY LANE, 6. GAUDIS MASTERPIECE, 3. SAFE RETURN & 8. ANYTIME CHAMP
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 1. QUANTUM KING
Selections – 10. WATERBERRY LANE, 6. GAUDIS MASTERPIECE, 3. SAFE RETURN & 8. ANYTIME CHAMP
S2-7:
Banker – 14. NEBRAAS
Selections – 3. DON’T LOOK BACK, 12. OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE, 13. SILVER HOST & 1. AFRICAN ADVENTURE
S2-7 Greyville Gold Cup
Sean Tarry times NEBRAAS Greyville Gold Cup preparation to perfection. Despite the fact it has been relegated to a G3 event over the years, the Greyville Gold Cup is still perceived as South Africa’s premier race for stayers. Run over 3,200m, it tends to be a very open event. Last year’s winner, PATHS OF VICTORY, is back for a second try but has done little since.
The horse coming to form at the right time is Sean Tarry-trained NEBRAAS. Champion trainer Tarry may have decided some time back that this would be an ideal mission for NEBRAAS and could well have timed the preparation to perfection. The son of VERCINGETORIX was gelded in February and that seems to have helped him turn the corner. He won a MR96 Handicap by 5.25 lengths at the Vaal in June and then really staked his claim with an emphatic victory in the G3 Gold Vase over 3,000m at Greyville on 3rd July. He will carry just 116lbs and will have Lyle Hewitson, who is just about to claim his third Championship jockeys’ title, in the irons.
Another runner with a lightweight to consider is DON’T LOOK BACK. He sold to owner and trainer St John Gray in December last year. Since then he has won six races, two of them over this distance. He will be ridden by last year’s winning jockey S’manga Khumalo and has 120lbs to carry.
OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE won last year’s G1 S A Derby over 2,450m at Turffontein and was then sold. The deal fell through at the last minute and he was rushed along to run in the 2020 Greyville Gold Cup but was nowhere near ready and ran last. He has come back to his best form, winning his last two races, and there is a lot of confidence from the stable that he can win it this year.
One always has to respect runners from the Justin Snaith yard and he saddles SILVER HOST, DOUBLEMINT and BAYBERRY. The first two runners have to be respected but it is SILVER HOST, with stable jockey Richard Fourie, who stands out.
Top weight AFRICAN ADVENTURE is a proven stayer but has to give weight all round. However, trainer Joe Soma will have him perfectly tuned for this race and he needs to be included in all bets, especially with jockey Muzi Yeni in the saddle.
SELECTIONS: 14. NEBRAAS, 3. DON’T LOOK BACK, 12. OUT OF YOUR LEAGUE, 13. SILVER HOST & 1. AFRICAN ADVENTURE
S2-8 Mercury Sprint
RIO QUERARI can claim top sprinter award in Mercury Sprint over 1,200m.
There are four G1 sprint races in South Africa, two over 1,000m and two over 1,200m. At this stage three different horses have won the three races run so far but only two of them will line up in Saturday’s Mercury Sprint – RIO QUERARI and BATTLE FORCE. There is a lot at stake for the two runners because if one of them can win this event, they will have done enough to claim the Equus Award for Champion Sprinter.
Three of those G1 races are a weight-for-age and one, the G1 Golden Horse Sprint, is a handicap. So, when BATTLE FORCE won that race, he did so with 115lbs on his back. This time, he will be at level weights with those he beat narrowly and looks unlikely to repeat the feat.
RIO QUERARI, on the other hand, won the G1 Computaform Sprint over 1,000m at Turffontein at weight-for-age, and did so in style.
As a result, the Justin Snaith-trained gelding could be hard to beat this time, in spite of not having run since winning that race on 1st May. Snaith knows how to bring horses back well from a layoff and, in fact, the Computaform Sprint victory came after a two-month rest. This 4YO gelding has a lot going for him. Inside draws are a massive advantage over this distance and he will jump from barrier 3. Jockey Grant van Niekerk has ridden him in his last six starts for a record of four wins and two seconds.
MK'S PRIDE is an improving 3YO who ran a close-up third in both the G1 Golden Horse Sprint and the G2 Post Merchants. He is also perfectly drawn at barrier 2 and will have a top jockey up in S’manga Khumalo, who will be riding him for the first time.
Sticking with the draw advantage, Sean Tarry saddles CHIMICHURI RUN, who jumps from pole position. He is a top sprinter who lost his form for a while but has recently started to regain some of that brilliance. Lyle Hewitson takes the ride.
KASIMIR is in a similar position. He won this race in 2019 but finished unplaced last year when going off a short-priced favourite. After a slight slump, he came back to form with a victory in the G2 Post Merchants. Unfortunately, he will have to jump from barrier 11 and that could be a concern. Richard Fourie rides for the Snaith yard.
A very interesting runner is Mike de Kock-trained AL SAKEET. He has only raced five times for four wins and a third place, but all those wins were over 1,000m to 1,100m. He is drawn barrier 12 which is also against him but he is not lacking in talent.
SELECTIONS: 3. RIO QUERARI, 2. MK'S PRIDE, 1. CHIMICHURI RUN, 11. KASIMIR & 12. AL SAKEET
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-8:
Multiple – 3. RIO QUERARI, 2. MK'S PRIDE & 1. CHIMICHURI RUN
S2-9:
Multiple – 4. GOT THE GREENLIGHT, 9. DO IT AGAIN & 5. CATCH TWENTYTWO
S2-10:
Multiple – 13. SUMMER PUDDING, 2. SHE’S A KEEPER & 5. SCENTED MISTRESS
S2-9 HKJC World Pool Champions Cup
GOT THE GREENLIGHT, who was crowned champion 2YO and 3YO of his generation, is the favourite to win the G1 HKJC World Pool Champions Cup over 1,800m.
He has already bagged two G1s this season - the Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1,600m and the Premier’s Champions Challenge over 2,000m. Victory in the season finale will almost guarantee him the title of champion older horse for this season and perhaps even horse of the year. After his sparkling third place finish behind the country’s top 3YOs in the Durban July, victory seems to be his for the taking.
His biggest threat is undoubtedly the Justin Snaith-trained superstar, DO IT AGAIN, who has won the Durban July twice and finished fourth in this year’s renewal, just 1.05 lengths behind GOT THE GREENLIGHT.
This time round, however, DO IT AGAIN is 6lbs better off as the Champions Cup is a weight-for-age contest.
It is also important to note that DO IT AGAIN experienced traffic issues in the Durban July and – had he managed to secure a better passage - he may have finished a lot closer to the GOT THE GREENLIGHT.
GOT THE GREENLIGHT, trained by Joe Soma, is the top choice because he is arguably better over 1,800m.
The two runners most likely to surprise are CATCH TWENTYTWO and JET DARK.
Trained by Paul Peter, CATCH TWENTYTWO has been runner-up in the G2 Drill Hall Stakes over 1,400m and the G1 Gold Challenge over 1,600m. Both those races were won by RAINBOW BRIDGE, who was withdrawn from the Champions Cup shortly after final declarations. In his solitary attempt over 1,800m, the G1 SA Classic, he ran third to Triple Crown winner MALMOOS.
JET DARK, stable companion to DO IT AGAIN, has never raced over further than 1600m, so this might be at the top end of his range. He was Snaith’s ‘Plan B’-winner of the G1 Queen’s Plate when a slow pace allowed him to attack over the last 300m. A slow pace here could see history repeat itself, although that is unlikely as Snaith has also entered frontrunner CROWN TOWERS, who will probably be setting the pace – a task he performed in the Durban July as well.
In the Durban July, the chasing peloton stormed past CROWN TOWERS in the last 250m and he had to settle for eleventh after building up a near two-length lead with 400m to go. Expect the same again, except that over this distance CROWN TOWERS might just hang on for minor money. After all, he did go pillar to post over this course and distance last month when winning the G3 Cup Trial.
SEEKING THE STARS is another frontrunner who should ensure a cracking pace. Three of his four career wins, including his two G3-successes, have come over 1,400m. The question is whether he will run on. Trainer Vaughan Marshall has engaged the services of jockey Grant van Niekerk for the ride and his experience could be telling.
None of the rest makes any appeal.
SELECTIONS: 4. GOT THE GREENLIGHT, 9. DO IT AGAIN, 5. CATCH TWENTYTWO, 6. JET DARK & 8. CROWN TOWERS
S2-10 Gold Bracelet
Current Equus Horse-Of-The-Year SUMMER PUDDING will have her swansong in the G2 Gold Bracelet over 2,000m and there is no reason why she should not go out in style.
It will be an emotional farewell to a filly who has brought so much panache to a year in which horseracing has been so shaken by pandemic and financial constraints. First trained by Ormond Ferraris, father of Hong Kong-based trainer David Ferraris, she moved to Paul Peter following the retirement of the veteran trainer. She won her first nine starts which incorporated a victory in the South Africa Triple Tiara as well as the G1 Woolavington 2000 at Greyville. This season she took on the colts in the G1 Gauteng Summer Cup over 2,000m at Turffontein, and despite giving weight to all but two runners and jumping from a wide draw, she romped to an easy victory.
In total she has won 11 of her 13 starts but the decision has been taken to send her to stud at the end of the season. She stands head and shoulders above her opposition and despite a wide draw, looks the best bet on the card.
The main danger could come from up-and-coming SHE’S A KEEPER, who has won five of her seven starts. However, it is also worth noting that Warren Kennedy had the option of riding either filly, and he opted for SUMMER PUDDING.
There is one filly who has finished in front of SUMMER PUDDING and that is CHAT CHING. SUMMER PUDDING travelled to Kenilworth to contest the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m in January but did not run to her true form and finished seventh. CHAT CHING ran fourth, beating SUMMER PUDDING by 1.65 lengths. But while Candice Bass-Robinson’s runner produced her best form that day, SUMMER PUDDING did not. The latter is also now 2lbs better off.
SCENTED MISTRESS is only a two-time winner but has placed consistently and ran third in this year’s Woolavington 2000 behind WAR OF ATHENA. Vaughan Marshall’s charge must be in the shake-up, especially as she finished ahead of CHAT CHING in that race.
SENTBYDESTINY beat the colts in the G1 Premiers Champions Stakes over 1,600m at Greyville last year but in retrospect, that has not turned out to be a strong form line, and she has not won a race since then.
SELECTIONS: 13. SUMMER PUDDING, 2. SHE’S A KEEPER, 5. SCENTED MISTRESS, 8. CHAT CHING & 9. SENTBYDESTINY
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