 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix Maurice de Gheest Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Class 1 Handicapurg
The Class 1 Handicap over 1,600m is one of the highlights of the season for the locally trained handicappers and it is no surprise that the Stephane Wattel trained MON AMI L’ECOSSAIS has been entered once more with a view of defending his title.
Following his 2020 victory, he was stepped up in class and was the runner-up in a Listed race over the same trip before ending his season with a disappointing run on the polytrack. He was then given seven months off and after returning in a conditions race over 1,600m last month, he should be in peak form for the renewal.
The drying ground will be worrying his connections, while Winfried Engelbrecht-Bresges, the owner of NOW WE KNOW, will be delighted with the forecast, as there is no doubt that the 4YO is a much better mover on better ground. Listed placed, he has had one start in a handicap over 1,800m where he finished second after producing a good turn of foot in the final stages. He will not be bothered by the drop back in trip.
GO TO HOLLYWOOD is also trained locally and was well beaten when finishing fourth in this event last year. Since then, he has consistently made his mark in various handicaps from 1,600m to 1,850m. He won a major handicap over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp in May and confirmed his ambitions when runner-up in another handicap, this time over 1,800m. He has had a couple of months off since and his freshness will be to his advantage.
In this very open and competitive handicap, the filly MUSETTA could spring a surprise. Like most of her opponents, she has been placed in Listed races. She also has a good run in the Listed Prix Jacques de Bremond over 1,600m at Vichy in July, where she was beaten only a nose, this tough and versatile filly should be able to assert herself in this company.
PEVENSEY BAY, another filly who used to be trained by John Hammond, is currently on an upward curve. Absent from the competition for almost eight months, she won a conditions race over 1,600m at Saint-Cloud in great style, leaving behind her a decent filly, VARKESHA, who has since gone on to win a race over 1,950m.
SELECTIONS: 5. NOW WE KNOW, 1. MON AMI L’ECOSSAIS, 6. GO TO HOLLYWOOD, 7. MUSETTA & 16. PEVENSEY BAY
S1-2 Prix Maurice de Gheest
Given UK-trained horses have won five of the last eight runnings of the 1,300m G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest, the overseas challenge seems a logical place to start when tackling the 2021 renewal.
STARMAN is the new kid on the block in the sprinting world, having won five of his six career starts. His only defeat came on his unfavoured soft ground in the G1 British Champions Sprint over 1,200m at Ascot last October. He won the G1 July Cup over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) last time and with a slight step up in trip likely to suit, he’s the one to beat, although soft ground would be a worry.
LAWS OF INDICES must be given a chance on the back of his win in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m. A former 1,200m G2 winner, Ken Condon’s contender has run in a number of top-class contests since but hasn’t managed to get his head in front. That win at Deauville was more like his old self, though, and he’s a live player.
Although not trained in the UK, Wesley Ward’s CAMPANELLE is another member of a strong overseas challenge. She won the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m and the G1 Prix Morny over 1,200m last season before being tried over 1,600m in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The daughter of KODIAC didn’t stay but won the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m on her next start. That came in the stewards’ room, but she deserved to be awarded the race and DRAGON SYMBOL has run well in G1 and G2 company since. She must have every chance.
There aren’t many bigger improvers than ROHAAN and David Evans’ runner deserves another chance following a below-par effort at Newmarket (July Course) last time. He never really got into the July Cup, so it’s better to focus on his wins in the G3 Pavilion Stakes, G2 Sandy Lane Stakes and Wokingham Stakes that all over 1,200m where he showed he’s a sprinter on the upgrade.
If there is to be a homefield winner, it’s most likely to be Jerome Reynier’s MARIANAFOOT. The 6YO seems to have found a new lease of life this season, winning all six of his starts, including twice at G3 level over 1,400m. The most recent of those came in the G3 Prix de la Porte Maillot where he beat DUHAIL. That rival ran very well when fourth in the G1 Sussex Stakes over 1,600m, so the form has a solid look to it.
SELECTIONS: 12. CAMPANELLE, 6. STARMAN, 8. ROHAAN, 9. LAWS OF INDICES & 5. MARIANAFOOT
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 12. CAMPANELLE
Selections – 6. STARMAN, 8. ROHAAN, 9. LAWS OF INDICES & 5. MARIANAFOOT
S1-3:
Banker – 10. VENTURA DIAMOND
Selections – 9. MO CELITA, 3. VALLORIA &14. IVRESSE
S1-3 Prix Moonlight Cloud
Last year’s 1,200m Prix Moonlight Cloud saw a successful raid for British trainer Archie Watson.
Watson’s not returning to defend his crown, but Richard Fahey’s VENTURA DIAMOND has every chance of keeping this Listed prize out of French hands. Based in the north of England but not shy of a trip to France, Fahey has landed no less than eight Listed or Group contests in the country in the last five years and has to be respected.
VENTURA DIAMOND’s best performances have come on soft or heavy ground, including when taking out the Listed race over 1,200m at Newmarket last October. There is plenty of rain in the forecast and her chances will improve with every drop that falls. She’s yet to put her best foot forward this season, but has run with some promise in all three starts over around 1,200m trip and looks set to get her ideal conditions here.
MO CELITA is the other British contender in the line-up, and she’s been a revelation this season. Five consecutive wins with four over 1,200m and one over 1,000m, in the space of two months led to her having a crack at the 1,000m Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Royal Ascot, where she ran with plenty of merit and finished fifth. She’s at her best on soft or heavy also, so it may be best to ignore her effort last time out when finishing down the field in the 1,200m G3 Summer Stakes on good ground. Winning this will require a career best from MO CELITA, but she’s shown enough this season to warrant respect and will appreciate the testing conditions.
Coming off the back of a fourth-place finish in G1 company, VALLORIA is the highest-rated horse in the field and enters calculations. She’s proven on soft ground and is already a winner at Listed level having won the 1,600m Prix Volterra two starts back. The question mark is the drop in trip, having previously raced exclusively at 1,400m to 1,600m. It’s an interesting move from her top-class trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget, and she has to be on the shortlist.
Freddy Head’s IVRESSE is the final one on the shortlist. The daughter of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is a progressive filly with an eyecatching pedigree. Her half-sister, DEVIL is the 1,200m G3 winner. IVRESSE remains open to further improvement.
SELECTIONS: 10. VENTURA DIAMOND, 9. MO CELITA, 3. VALLORIA & 14. IVRESSE
S1-4 Prix de Reux
This G3 contest over 2,500m looks a good opportunity for STAR SAFARI to return to winning form.
He won twice during the winter in Dubai, including a 2,000m Meydan G3, but Charlie Appleby’s runner had little chance on his return to Britain in the G2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes over 2,400m at Newmarket (July Course) last month. He was a bit keen in the early stages when held up off the pace in that five-runner contest, so it was a decent effort to get within three lengths of the front-running SIR RON PRIESTLEY with smart AL AASY in second. He didn’t run badly when sixth behind MISHRIFF in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m at Meydan in March and he is well up to this easier G3 level. Although he has yet to race on soft ground, his pedigree offers plenty of hope that he will handle it.
NORTHERN RULER was well positioned in a prominent spot when landing a G3 at Chantilly over 2,400m in June. He wasn’t good enough when upped in grade for the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp last month when he was left trailing down the straight in seventh behind Godolphin’s G1 Irish Derby hero HURRICANE LANE. This less-competitive race should see him in a much better light.
THE GOOD MAN wasn’t suited by the steady early pace when runner-up behind IN SWOOP in a ParisLongchamp G3 contest over 2,400m in May. He didn’t get the clearest run through from the rear, either, so it was an excellent first run in this grade. His earlier wins at ParisLongchamp and Saint-Cloud both came over 2,400m and he is still unexposed over this distance.
ALTER ADLER showed a great attitude when winning over 2,400m at Saint-Cloud in June having earlier landed a Chantilly maiden over 2,400m in May. He was only run down close home when runner-up in the G1 Deutsches Derby over 2,400m at Hamburg last month and he cannot be easily dismissed.
MOGUL has two top-level wins to his name. His victory in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp last year stands out and he went on to win the G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m at Sha Tin in December. He has been disappointing in G1 races this year but he would have to be a danger on his best form.
SELECTIONS: 1. STAR SAFARI, 9. NORTHERN RULER, 7. THE GOOD MAN, 11. ALTER ADLER & 5. MOGUL
S1-5 Class 2 Allowance
KESHANA is a promising filly with a bright future. She won impressively on her debut over 1,100m at Tarbes in May. It wasn’t a great race but she couldn’t have won much easier and she confirmed the promise of that run when going close over 1,400m at Saint-Cloud in June. She looked like she might hang on 200m from home but ZELLIE managed to get out in time to pass her close to the finish. The winner went on to win a Listed race at Deauville before returning to that track to finish runner-up in a G3 on 3rd August, so the form KESHANA showed at Saint-Cloud looks good.
KHAN did not get the clearest of passages when runner-up behind TRIDENT in a 1,300m ParisLongchamp maiden on his debut in June. He clung on bravely when getting off the mark at the second attempt at ParisLongchamp over 1,300m last month and he won’t mind this slightly shorter distance. There’s a lot to like about his attitude so he is likely to be involved in the finish if he can get a nice position from the starting gate.
BABA SIM was impressive when making most of the running to win over 1,100m at Dieppe last month. He showed a lot of pace and found plenty when challenged to pull three-and-a-half lengths clear of LE CADEAU at the line. That was a big step forward from his debut fifth over 1,350m at Lyon Parilly in June so there should be more improvement to come.
ROSE PREMIUM made a promising debut when runner-up over 1,100m at Chantilly in June. She showed a fine change of pace when a smooth winner over 1,300m at ParisLongchamp last month and she is a filly with more improvement in her.
BLACK LIVES MATTER has run in Group races since landing a 1,300m maiden at ParisLongchamp in May. He wasn’t particularly well positioned when runner-up behind British raider ATOMIC FORCE in a G3 over 1,200m at Chantilly, when he stayed on well from the rear behind the frontrunning winner. His most recent effort was nowhere near as good as he was never travelling fluently when tried in cheekpieces for the first time in a Chantilly G2 over 1,200m. That was clearly not his form and this is a drop in grade.
SELECTIONS: 6. KESHANA, 5. KHAN, 4. BABA SIM, 10. ROSE PREMIUM & 1. BLACK LIVES MATTER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 6. KESHANA
Selections – 5. KHAN, 4. BABA SIM, 10. ROSE PREMIUM & 1. BLACK LIVES MATTER
S1-6:
Banker – 11. NEMBA
Selections – 2. NAGANO, 14. ASHEN, 3. OTAMBURA & 5. RIDEOFTHEVALKYRIE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5:
Multiple – 6. KESHANA, 5. KHAN & 4. BABA SIM
S1-6:
Multiple – 11. NEMBA, 2. NAGANO & 14. ASHEN
S1-7:
Multiple – 5. AVEC LAURA, 9. DOWNEVA & 6. VEGA DREAM
S1-6 3yo Handicap
A good starting point in this field is NEMBA, who ran a fine race for second last time out at ParisLongchamp over what looked an inadequate 1,000m. She looked to be going at top speed for most of that contest and was pushed along from halfway, however, it was in the final 200m where she did her best work, keeping on strongly to the line. With Christophe Soumillon now taking over in the saddle, and this new trip likely to suit, she looks primed to strike.
NAGANO caught the eye when coming from the back of the field on handicap debut at Chantilly over 1,600m last time out. Mathieu Brasme’s filly showed her inexperience when taking a bit of time to get organised at the top of the home straight, but then produced a fine run down the outside, running the final 600m in 37.02s, a time only bettered by one rival in that race. This drop in trip will ask some questions of the daughter of OLYMPIC GLORY but she looks interesting, especially if ridden more prominently.
Henri-Alex Pantall’s filly ASHEN looked to be travelling well towards the finish at Vichy over 1,600m on handicap debut. She failed to quicken in the closing stages and should be more effective back at this trip. Mickael Barzalona catches the eye as a jockey booking. Despite her unexposed profile, other rivals look to have achieved more and she may find a few too good once again.
OTAMBURA has been consistent in four handicap starts to date, and has a win to her name, over 1,350m at Lyon Parilly in late June. Things didn’t go to plan last time at Vichy over 1,600m and granted a smoother passage this time around, she looks capable of placing.
RIDEOFTHEVALKYRIE is a potential improver on handicap debut. This filly emerged with great credit on debut in January at Cagnes-Sur-Mer over 2,000m where she ran third behind two rivals who have since proved to be patterned class. When last seen in April, she showed plenty of early speed over 1,600m, but raced too keenly and faded well before the finish. While her absence is a concern, she can go well when fresh and it would no surprise if she produces an improved performance.
SELECTIONS: 11. NEMBA, 2. NAGANO, 14. ASHEN, 3. OTAMBURA & 5. RIDEOFTHEVALKYRIE
S1-7 Class 3 Handicap
At the age of eight, AVEC LAURA is one of the older competitors in this small field of handicappers tackling this 1,500m prize. However, he has proven that he is still in form and is being reunited once more with Stephane Pasquier who knows him like the back of his hand and always gets the best out of him. He hasn’t finished on the top of the podium since February 2020 but has twice come third in handicaps over 1,600m on the turf at Chantilly. His form on the polytrack is good, albeit over longer distances.
DOWNEVA, who is also 8YO, doesn’t mind if he runs on turf or the polytrack. Very consistent, this race fits perfectly into his programme and after having enjoyed a couple of months off in the spring, he has been freshened up and should be ready to roar. Ideally placed in the weights, he has the advantage of being able to come from behind or to travel up close to the pace.
If AVEC LAURA and DOWNEVA are the more experienced runners in this race, VEGA DREAM is a youngster who is still eager to make his name. He only joined the yard of Edouard Monfort this season and while his last three runs were disappointing, a return to the polytrack could be the key to a first success, especially since he thrives over this trip.
ETE DE CARL is also a contender who is still looking for that first elusive victory. He has had a very busy winter with starts in maiden races, as well as handicaps, but has so far missed out on making a lasting impression. However, he had the spring off and after two starts he must be ready for a big performance.
The 4YO filly KILLING ZOE, on the other hand, tasted success in a lesser handicap over 1,400m only three months ago at the La Teste de Buch Racecourse. She has shown consistent form in handicaps in the provinces, but so far has failed to reproduce that form at the Parisian racecourses. She was the runner-up in a handicap over 1,600m at Vichy, but that was on turf and not the polytrack. It will be interesting to see if she can continue to improve.
SELECTIONS: 5. AVEC LAURA, 9. DOWNEVA, 6. VEGA DREAM, 2. ETE DE CARL & 8. KILLING ZOE
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