Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Prix Jacques le Marois Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-1     Prix Francois Boutin

 

This looks a good opportunity for NEVER DIES to continue his progress through this G3 Prix Francois Boutin over 1,400m. He was poorly positioned after starting slowly on his debut, so he did well to finish runner-up behind MATHLETIC in that 1,400m Chantilly maiden in July. Andre Fabre’s runner was much sharper from the gate on his second start at Compiegne over 1,400m on 27th July when he moved well and drew right away in the closing stages. He should be running in better races than this in the near future.

 

BEST SIXTEEN has plenty of experience. He’s not been out of the first three in any of his seven races and he travelled smoothly when landing a Listed prize at Vichy last month. That was his first run over 1,400m, and he saw the trip out really well. He ran well on his only previous try at G3 level when third behind top prospect ATOMIC FORCE over 1,200m at Chantilly in late June. This distance suits him better and a bold bid is expected.

 

WHO KNOWS has looked in need of this step up to 1,400m. She stayed on well to go clear in the last 100m when landing a 1,200m Chantilly maiden in June. The step up to G2 company over 1,200m at the same course last month that caught her out as she struggled to go the early pace before staying on into fourth behind ATOMIC FORCE. This race will suit her better.

 

The way MONTUSSAN finished her race when third in a 1,200m Listed contest at La Teste de Buch last month suggested she needed this return to 1,400m. She appeared to go for home too soon on her only try at this distance when fifth in a Listed race at Deauville on her second start after making a successful debut over 1,200m at Saint-Cloud. The best has yet to be seen of Paul de Chevigny’s filly.

 

British raider THE WIZARD OF EYE made a promising debut over 1,200m at Salisbury in June. There was a lot to like about the way he saw out the distance when he easily landed a big-field 1,200m novice race at Newbury the following month. The bare form is not particularly special, but he shapes like he will like the step up to 1,400m and he should have more improvement.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. NEVER DIES, 2. BEST SIXTEEN, 6. WHO KNOWS, 8. MONTUSSAN & 3. THE WIZARD OF EYE

 

S1-2     Prix Gontaut-Biron Hong Kong Jockey Club

 

WALLY looks the one to beat here after an impressive win in the G2 Gran Premio di Milano over 2,000m last time out. Fourth in G1 company the time before over 1,850m, he was slightly unlucky to get caught in a pocket behind runners and never really got racing room. Despite that he finished his race off well, running the final 600m in 32.54s, a time only bettered by the winner. He is still unexposed over 2,000m and looks a strong stayer at this trip. If there are no similar problems in running here, Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge should have too much class for this opposition back at G3 level.

 

Another horse who has run well at a higher level this season is MONTY. A horse who can make the running, he got an easy time of the lead when winning the Listed Grand Prix du Bordeaux over 1,900m last time. The presence of other pace angles in here may harm his chances, however.

 

KENWAY has run two good races over 1,600m the last twice, but his best form has come over slightly longer trips. In the G3 Prix Messidor last time out he got outpaced at the top of the home straight, but finished off his race well, running the final 600m in 33.84s. This return to 2,000m could bring about a bit of improvement and he looks sure to be in contention.

 

German raider NO LIMIT CREDIT has been performing consistently in Group races this season over 2,000m. Her latest run in G1 company in Munich over 2,000m is form that ties in with others in this race. This trip has looked to test her stamina at times this season however, and she struggled to come from the back of a strong pace last time. Andreas Suborics’ filly can run a good race again but may find a few too strong at the finish.

 

ALGIERS finished behind DIAMOND VENDOME, one of these rivals in the G3 Grand Prix de Vichy over 2,000m last time, but Andre Fabre’s colt, a winner over 2,400m, looked to be unsuited by the moderate gallop that day. After only 10 career starts, he still looks to be progressing and with more pace here, he may be capable of reversing that form and running into the minor places.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. WALLY, 2. MONTY, 4. KENWAY, 6. NO LIMIT CREDIT & 3. ALGIERS

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 1. WALLY
Selections – 2. MONTY, 4. KENWAY, 6. NO LIMIT CREDIT & 3. ALGIERS
S1-3:   
Banker – 7. KILOECHO
Selections – 2. SIMPLY STRIKING, 4. KILFRUSH MEMORIES, 1. TUDO BEM & 3. KING ROBBE

 

S1-3     Class 1 Handicap

 

KILOECHO has been in tremendous form since returning from his winter break and he has a great chance of completing a hat-trick of wins in this 1,200m Class 1 Handicap. He came home well to beat TUDO BEM over 1,200m at Chantilly on his return to action in June. It was a similar story over 1,200m at Deauville last month when he finished strongly to again catch TUDO BEM in the closing stages. The form of those races has worked out well and KILOECHO is clearly still improving. He is relatively unexposed in sprints so there should be plenty more to come from Jean-Vincent Toux’s runner.

 

SIMPLY STRIKING didn’t get in the clear until it was too late when eighth on the polytrack over 1,300m at Deauville a couple of weeks ago. He had also found himself poorly positioned when runner-up behind ELUSIVE FOOT over 1,300m at ParisLongchamp in May. He was forced wide to make his challenge off the home turn and only narrowly failed to catch the winner. He will need a strong pace and a bit of luck but he has the ability to win this race.

 

KILFRUSH MEMORIES showed a smart change of pace to overcome traffic problems when winning over 1,100m at Dieppe two weeks ago. He beat SIMPLY STRIKING and TUDO BEM over the same course and distance last summer and appears to be running into top form following a quiet spell earlier in the season.

 

TUDO BEM narrowly failed to complete a hat-trick of wins when caught close home over 1,200m at Deauville in early July following two victories over 1,200m at Chantilly. The return to 1,000m just caught him out in a Listed race at Deauville last week and he will enjoy the step back up to this longer distance. He has thrived this season and he is clearly still at the top of his game.

 

KING ROBBE didn’t see much daylight when upped to Listed class over 1,000m at Deauville in early August. That was the first time he had run over such a short distance so the return to 1,200m is in his favour. He looked good when landing a 1,400m handicap at ParisLongchamp in April, but this distance probably suits him better. If there’s a strong pace in the early stages, he will be dangerous.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. KILOECHO, 2. SIMPLY STRIKING, 4. KILFRUSH MEMORIES, 1. TUDO BEM & 3. KING ROBBE

 

S1-4     Prix Jacques le Marois

 

The stage was set at the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last month for the much-anticipated clash between PALACE PIER and POETIC FLARE, only for John & Thady Gosden’s runner to miss out after a reported blood disorder.

 

Considering that, POETIC FLARE’s failure to take advantage in the Sussex Stakes over 1,600m was disappointing. While Jim Bolger’s colt ran a creditable race for second, he looked a horse that was beginning to feel the effects of six races in top company already this season. Soft ground that day is another excuse for his lacklustre display, and with a dry forecast the going should be quicker in Deauville, but he may be vulnerable to a rival in PALACE PIER who has had a lighter preparation.

 

PALACE PIER wasn’t impressive when beating moderate opposition in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot, but he is a horse that can save a bit for himself and do just enough to win. After only one defeat in nine starts, John & Thady Gosden’s horse still ranks as the one to beat.

 

ALPINE STAR was narrowly denied by PALACE PIER in this race last season and Mrs John Harrington’s filly returns for another crack at her old rival. Her reappearance at York over 2,051m is hard form to weigh up as she was travelling much the best 400m from home, but narrowly lost out in a battle toward the finish. A drop back to 1,600m will suit her and she should come on for that run. However, this opposition demands far more of her and after finishing a narrowly beaten second on her last four starts, she may be found out once again.

 

Of the Godolphin duo, Mickael Barzalona has selected VICTOR LUDORUM, a winner over 1,600m at Chantilly in G3 company most recently. While that was not a strong race, he showed a good turn of foot to quicken up smartly inside the final 400m. This horse won the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over this course and distance last season and while he has come up short twice at the top level this season, a good performance can be expected back up in grade.

 

Andre Fabre must think a lot of MIDTOWN to be pitching him into a race of this nature after only three starts. His latest run when third in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m hinted at more improvement to come and now stepping up in trip this son of DUBAWI can fight out the minor places.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. PALACE PIER, 6. POETIC FLARE, 5. ALPINE STAR, 2. VICTOR LUDORUM & 7. MIDTOWN

 

S1-5     Prix Nureyev

 

Well-bred SHAFAAF should take advantage of the step up to 2,000m. He has won both his starts and he looks well up to this Listed level. His debut win over 1,600m at Compiegne in June was an excellent starting point and he was just as impressive when beating a decent field over 1,600m at Clairefontaine last month. He made most of the running and drew clear in the closing stages for a comfortable victory. This longer distance is just what he wants.

 

IN CROWD didn’t get home over 2,400m when fourth behind smart ALTER ADLER at Saint-Cloud in June. There was a lot to like about his earlier wins at ParisLongchamp over 2,100m and Chantilly over 2,000m when he looked a useful prospect. The return to 1,900m suited him when he made it three wins in four races at Deauville last week and he looks well up to this class.

 

GREGOLIMO has handled the rise into Group races since winning over 2,100m at Toulouse in March. His third behind CHESHIRE ACADEMY and PRETTY TIGER in the G3 Prix Noailles over 2,100m at ParisLongchamp in April is good form and he backed it up with an even better effort when runner-up behind BUBBLE GIFT in the G2 Prix Hocquart over 2,200m at the same track in May. The slight drop in distance won’t be a problem and he has been freshened up with almost a three-month break.

 

The G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp was a step too far for CASH EQUITY and he will be much happier over this shorter distance in an easier race. He had previously won well over 2,000m at Le Lion d'Angers in May before finishing third behind smart Godolphin prospect PARCHEMIN in a 2,000m ParisLongchamp Listed race. Ludovic Gadbin’s runner certainly has the ability to remain competitive at this level.

 

ALASTOR was no match for smart CAPRICE DES DIEUX when runner-up over 2,000m at Compiegne last month but he has a consistent profile. Having finished third in a G2 Derby Italiano in Rome over 2,200m in late May, he had little trouble landing a good Saint-Cloud maiden over 2,000m when returning from a break in July. He stays this distance well and should be involved in the finish.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. SHAFAAF, 11. IN CROWD, 3. GREGOLIMO, 6. CASH EQUITY & 7. ALASTOR

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 9. SHAFAAF  
Selections – 11. IN CROWD, 3. GREGOLIMO, 6. CASH EQUITY & 7. ALASTOR
S1-6:   
Banker – 6. SAYYIDA
Selections – 9. FREE WIND, 5. BURGARITA, 2. JANNAH FLOWER & 1. THUNDER DRUM

 

S1-6     Prix Minerve

 

This 2,500m G3 contest has the potential to unearth a top-class filly. Last year, subsequent dual G1 winner WONDERFUL TONIGHT took top honours, and back in 2008 the brilliant DAR RE MI landed this before going on to win three G1s.

 

Three of the last four renewals have been won by UK-based trainers and both FREE WIND and SAYYIDA lead the British challenge this year. The former is twice a winner over 1,979m and 2,039m on ground ranging from good to good-to-soft, while she finished a clear second over 2,400m trip last time out. Though beaten that day, it was a close battle all the way to the line and she appeared to appreciate the step up in trip. As a filly that’s open to further improvement on her second start at 2,400m or above, she remains of interest.

 

SAYYIDA has made her last three starts over 2,400m, winning twice and finishing second last time out to a high-class filly in the shape of SAVE A FOREST, who finished fourth in the 2,400m G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom and is being prepared for further G1 contests. She has shown a great battling attitude in all of those starts and the step up to 2,500m looks set to suit.

 

As the only G3 winner in the field, THUNDER DRUM has to carry a weight penalty. She won the 2,400m G3 Prix de Royaumont in commanding style and arrives here in good form but is slightly exposed to improving rivals.

 

OLYMPIC GLORY filly JANNAH FLOWER has had just the three starts and steps up in trip for the first time. Her runs so far have come over 2,000m to 2,100m and she’s a half-sister to a 2,400m G1-placed filly so there are grounds for optimism over this new distance.

 

BURGARITA is stepping down from G1 company after her last start two months ago in the 2,100m Prix de Diane where she finished a very respectable third, beaten less than a length. Andre Fabre’s daughter of the great SEA THE STARS has been given a nice break and has to be respected. This will be the first time she’s raced over further than 2,200m, a distance she saw out well in the Listed Prix de la Seine two starts ago, and the step up in trip could bring about further improvement.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. SAYYIDA, 9. FREE WIND, 5. BURGARITA, 2. JANNAH FLOWER & 1. THUNDER DRUM

 

S1-7     Class 2 Handicap

 

TIME TO FLY stormed home to snatch third behind KILOECHO and TUDO BEM over 1,200m at Deauville last month.
He had looked out of form having twice been well beaten over longer distances at ParisLongchamp, but he had found trouble on both occasions. Everything had dropped right for him when he got up close home to land a 1,200m handicap at Chantilly in April. A strong pace over this 1,200m distance is just what he likes as he has an excellent finishing kick.

 

BIG FREEZE travelled well and showed a decent finishing effort when winning over 1,100m at Dieppe last month. Although he only scraped home in a photo-finish the first two pulled ten lengths clear of the rest of the field. His third in a 1,200m Deauville handicap in early August was another solid effort, especially as the early pace probably wasn’t strong enough for him. He should put in another good run.

 

SHAKE ME HANDY had to come right around the field and was still well on top at the winning line when successful over 1,200m at Deauville last month. He had taken time to find his best form after arriving from Britain last year and he has been consistent since landing a 1,300m Chantilly handicap on the polytrack in February. Now he has shown what he is capable of he should continue to progress.

 

NOORDHOUT showed a good attitude to cling on to victory over 1,200m in a handicap at Evreux in May. Janna Hendriks’ runner looked sure to follow up over 1,300m on the polytrack at Chantilly last month, but she was just collared in the closing stages and had to settle for third. The drop to 1,000m was no problem at Vichy last month when she won nicely. This is a stronger race but she shouldn’t be far away.

 

MUGUETTE GIRL has been in great form this season. She has won three races in her last five starts and she was runner-up in the other two. Her smooth victory at ParisLongchamp early last month came over 1,000m but she had no problem with the longer distance when pulling well clear to win over 1,300m at Le Touquet a couple of weeks ago. She is clearly in the form of her life so should be involved in the finish.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. TIME TO FLY, 7. BIG FREEZE, 1. SHAKE ME HANDY, 11. NOORDHOUT & 14. MUGUETTE GIRL

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 2. TIME TO FLY, 7. BIG FREEZE & 1. SHAKE ME HANDY
S1-8: Multiple – 2. ANDERSSON, 5. GOOD TO TALK & 7. PIKES PEAK
S1-9: Multiple – 4. CONVICTED, 2. CINEPHILE & 10. ELIEDEN

 

S1-8     Class 3 Handicap

 

Not surprising, with an original entry of 80, the Class 3 Handicap over 1,500m on polytrack, has been split into two races, with both looking hugely competitive.

 

ANDERSSON started favourite for his last race on turf at Chantilly in May over 1,800m. He could finish only third, but he will be better suited by this shorter distance. He got three wins from 29 starts. The winning strike rate is not that high. But he performed well in polytrack, with a place strike rate of 50%. He also produced his best run yet on polytrack when runner-up at Chantilly over 1,600m in March. ANDERSSON has also improved since changing stables at the beginning of the year and his recent runs on turf are impressive. This could be his big chance of glory.

 

GOOD TO TALK has looked in good form this year, too, winning twice in Le Lion d'Angers over 1,400m. He would be a big player on grass, but he still commands plenty of respect.

 

RED KITTEN has run some of his best races on this polytrack course at Deauville, winning last December over 1,300m and then only being beaten narrowly in a 16-runner race in April over 1,500m.

 

PIKES PEAK is also interesting as she is a 6YO mare who keeps her form remarkably well. She was beaten in a tight finish at ParisLongchamp over 1,900m last month, having previously run another excellent race when third at Saint-Cloud over 2,000m. Both those races were on grass, and, though PIKES PEAK has form on the polytrack and was beaten little more than a length over the polytrack here in March over 1,900m, she has looked more effective on turf.

 

At the age of 10, INSEO is the oldest horse in the race. But he showed that he is no back-number when, after an absence of seven months, during which he changed stables, he won twice on turf at Le Lion D'angers and ParisLongchamp over 1,400m since then. He is proven on the polytrack, having seven wins on his CV, including one over this course and distance.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. ANDERSSON, 5. GOOD TO TALK, 7. PIKES PEAK, 6. RED KITTEN & 16. INSEO

 

S1-9     Class 3 Handicap

 

This 1,500m course provides a good opportunity for horses who lack pace over the sprint trips but fail to get home over 1,600m.

 

ELIEDEN got two wins from 42 starts. Her last victory was at Clairefontaine over 1,400m two years ago, but since running so well at Chantilly she has been competing in better class races. Dropped in grade here, she looks sure to be in the mix and the 1,500m looks ideal. Her best efforts have come over 1,600m, but she’s shown enough speed to suggest the minor drop in trip will suit. Having Mickael Barzalona booked to ride is another positive in a big handicap like this. British trainer Gay Kelleway loves nothing more than taking home a nice chunk of prize money from France and ELIEDEN should be primed to run a big race.

 

BLACK WIDOW also ties into the form of ANDERSSON, who is well fancied to run well at ParisLongchamp over 1,600m in May, having finished only a head behind him for third. BLACK WIDOW’s best form has been on turf, but she has not looked slow when tackling the polytrack surface and is another who ought to be bang there at the finish.

 

ALPENGEIST would come into the reckoning on his 1,600m polytrack victory at Chantilly. We can put a line through his subsequent disappointments as he was tackling much stronger opposition and found himself outclassed.

 

CINEPHILE commands respect on a win over 1,600m and a close second over 1,500m at Chantilly. She is returning after an absence of more than a year, but splitting SINGASOUMI and MISTER CHARLIE on the polytrack at Chantilly over 1,500m is really solid form.

 

CONVICTED is equally effective on polytrack and turf, being beaten only a head over this course and distance. He then temporarily lost his form, but he showed distinct signs of a revival when runner-up on turf at Chantilly over 1,600m last month. That run will have put him spot on for this, and he should give us a sound run for our money.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. CONVICTED, 2. CINEPHILE, 10. ELIEDEN, 7. BLACK WIDOW & 1. ALPENGEIST

 

 

 

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