 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix Jean Romanet Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Class 2 Handicap
KHOCHENKO is finally coming down to a handicap mark that should enable him to get himself back onto the podium. For the first time since his last handicap victory over 2,000m at Cagnes-Sur-Mer in February, he is also running on the polytrack again, a surface where he produces his best performances. Co-trained by Didier Prod’Homme and his daughter Pauline, he likes to come from behind and his connections will be hoping for some pace in this race.
Another contender who will be wishing for more pace is GOYA SENORA. Third in a Listed race in 2019, he has little experience in handicap company and had to make an early effort on his last start to overcome the outside draw. Ridden from the front, he eventually ran out of steam in the final 200m. His trainer Yann Barberot who is enjoying a very successful meeting, might opt for a change of tactics this time round.
Where GOYA SENORA failed to impress, the Andre Fabre-trained SALESMAN delivered. Owned by the Wertheimer and Frere, the 4YO gelding has already won two handicaps this season, one on turf over 2,100m and one on the polytrack over 1,900m. Ridden patiently in midfield, his jockey Maxime Guyon already launched him before turning into the final straight and the chestnut responded with a long acceleration. For his easy victory he was heavily penalised by the handicappers, but he should still be competitive.
LAUDERDALE has won both of his last two starts over this distance and was successful over the same trip and racecourse at the end of last season. He is probably the least experienced horse in this field, but this very well-bred gelding, who runs in the colours of George Strawbridge, has every right to hope for another victory in this slightly more ambitious company. Heavily penalised for his last success, his limits are nevertheless still very much unknown and were he successful here, he could be directed towards black type races in the future.
Where LAUDERDALE is still unexposed, AMIRVANN has little to prove. Trained by Stephane Wattel, the 9YO is a regular on the Deauville polytrack and enjoyed a seven month-break in view of capturing another handicap during the meeting. He is ideally placed in the weights and it would be no surprise to see him run well once again.
SELECTIONS: 2. LAUDERDALE, 4. KHOCHENKO, 6. GOYA SENORA, 3. SALESMAN & 12. AMIRVANN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-1:
Banker – 2. LAUDERDALE
Selections – 4. KHOCHENKO, 6. GOYA SENORA, 3. SALESMAN & 12. AMIRVANN
S2-2:
Banker – 2. ARMOR
Selections – 1. PERFECT POWER, 8. ASYMMETRIC, 10. QUICK SUZY & 9. TRIDENT
S2-2 Prix Morny
Three major pieces of form converge here to make what looks one of the best juvenile races in Europe this season.
The G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m at Goodwood, won by ASYMMETRIC, is a key piece of form as Alan King’s colt had three of these rivals behind him that day. He got caught behind horses running inside 400m but quickened smartly between rivals to lead approaching the finish, running the final 400m in 22.71s. That win took his career record to three wins from four starts and he will have every chance of improving upon that at Deauville.
PERFECT POWER looked the unlucky one from that race as while the winner got the splits when needed, Richard Fahey’s colt was forced to switch to the wide outside of the field and even then was hampered by a wayward rival. He looked to finish full of running, recording a better final 400m time than the winner with 22.43s. Winner of the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot on his previous start, PERFECT POWER had to concede a small weight penalty at Goodwood due to that success, but now races off level weights against his old rival. Christophe Soumillon has been booked to ride and granted a clear run this time, his mount may be able to reverse the form.
Trainer Richard Hannon has a highly promising young sprinter in ARMOR, who flew home over 1,000m in the G3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last time. He still showed signs of inexperience there and now stepping up to 1,200m for the first time, he could prove too progressive for his rivals.
QUICK SUZY won the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m last time out, where she seemed to relish the stiff Ascot finish. She looks likely to show early pace in this race, and while the trip poses no worries, she will have to improve on her first start against the colts.
The French sprinting form looks to be of a slightly lower level, but on only his second start, Andre Fabre’s TRIDENT ran nicely in the G3 Prix de Cabourg what looked a strong race over this course and distance. A scopey son of WOOTTON BASSETT, he was posted wide on the track without much cover so did well to hold on for a close third after hitting the front too soon. With that experience behind him, he could take another step forward now.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARMOR, 1. PERFECT POWER, 8. ASYMMETRIC, 10. QUICK SUZY & 9. TRIDENT
S2-3 Prix Jean Romanet
Last year’s winner, AUDARYA, looks a nice place to start when tackling this year’s renewal of the G1 2,000m G1 Prix Jean Romanet.
The 5YO just got up to win 12 months ago and has put in two great performances subsequently when third in the G1 Prix de l’Opera over 2,000m and when winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf over 1,900m. Her seasonal reappearance second in the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes over 1,993m was another solid run considering around 7 months break she’d had prior, though she was very disappointing in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood behind LADY BOWTHORPE last time and needs to bounce back here.
On the back of that Nassau Stakes success, LADY BOWTHORPE clearly holds very strong claims. The daughter of NATHANIEL has turned into a proper Group performer this season and having won the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m and then running well in three subsequent outings over 1,600m, connections stepped her up in distance and that’s proved a shrewd move. She should take plenty of beating if in the same mood.
THUNDERING NIGHTS is a worthy contender after her win in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m last time. She beat SANTA BARBARA that day and given that rival has won two G1s since, the form looks solid. Joseph O’Brien’s filly will need to improve again here, but she’s definitely on the upgrade.
The home challenge looks to be spearheaded by EBAIYRA from the Alain de Royer Dupre stable. The 4YO is a four-time Group winner over the distance 2,000m to 2,500m - twice at G3 level and twice at G2 level. Those four victories show she’s very versatile and she was only just touched off in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 2,400m last time. The concern would be fast ground as she’s never run on it before.
INSINUENDO can complete the placings. She ran a really good race when fourth to THUNDERING NIGHTS in the aforementioned G1 Pretty Polly Stakes and stepped up on that to win the G2 Kilboy Estate Stakes over 1,800m impressively last time. This step up in distance should suit Willie McCreery’s runner and she could be a lively outsider.
SELECTIONS: 3. LADY BOWTHORPE, 7. THUNDERING NIGHTS, 8. AUDARYA, 2. EBAIYRA & 4. INSINUENDO
S2-4 Prix De Pomone
This G2 prize over 2,500m looks a good opportunity for RAABIHAH to end a frustrating sequence of seconds. She has been running well this season without managing to get her head in front where it matters. Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly has finished runner-up in all three starts this year, but they have been over shorter distances and she showed last season that she stays at least 2,400m in hot races. Her second behind top-class TARNAWA in the G1 Prix Vermeille at ParisLongchamp was an excellent effort and she bettered it when fifth behind SOTTSASS in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in October. That form makes her the one to beat.
JOIE DE SOIR looks a smart prospect. She made a winning debut over 1,900m at Deauville last December and it was no disgrace to be beaten by race-fit LA PARENCE on her return from a seven-month break over 2,000m at Compiegne. That race had clearly sharpened her up as she won a Clairefontaine Listed race over 2,400m in good style three weeks ago. Andre Fabre’s filly could be heading for G1 races and the step up to 2,500m should suit her.
MYSTERY ANGEL brings Classic form into this G2. She finished runner-up behind top filly SNOWFALL in the G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom over 2,405m in June. Although she was beaten 16 lengths, it was still a good effort and she put in another sound run when third behind PENJA in the G3 Prix de Psyche over 2,000m at Deauville earlier in the month. The drop in distance didn’t help that day so this return to 2,500m should help George Boughey’s British raider.
VALIA took a while to get on top when a narrow winner of a ParisLongchamp G2 over 2,800m on soft ground last month. That wasn’t a severe test of stamina for the distance, and she did well to head SKAZINO on the line as she is a strong stayer. This drop to 2,500m does her no favours but she is smart.
KATARA stepped up on her disappointing return to action over 2,398m at Goodwood in April when swooping late to land a Listed prize over 2,405m at Pontefract in June. British trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has plenty of gears and is still improving.
SELECTIONS: 4. RAABIHAH, 5. JOIE DE SOIR, 6. MYSTERY ANGEL & 1. VALIA
S2-5 Prix Kergorlay
Ideally situated in the calendar, the Prix Kergorlay over 3,000m is one of the major European trial races for the G1 Melbourne Cup, which explains its popularity with British and German trainers. They have won seven of the last 10 renewals, however, this year they will have to get past the locally-trained BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, who has been improving throughout the season. Not beaten far in a G2 race over 3,200m in Hoppegarten, Germany, he beat former G1 performer NAGANO GOLD in the Listed Prix du Carrousel over the same trip at Deauville and should be able to improve again for this new step up in class.
Although things didn’t work out for RED VERDON when he was beaten 20 lengths by SKAZINO in the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over 3,100m, the Ed Dunlop-trained 8YO is still very capable of producing a good performance. When he came to France in May, the ground was very soft at ParisLongchamp racecourse and he will appreciate the better ground that is forecast for Deauville on Sunday. He will be partnered by Ryan Moore who rode him to his last victory in a Listed race at Sandown over 3,245m.
If he can threaten the Cedric Rossie-trained SKAZINO though remains to be seen. The 5YO has undergone a remarkable transformation since he has been stepped up in trip this season. A winner of a G3 race over 3,100m at ParisLongchamp in May, he has since added the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over the same distance to his name and would have remained unbeaten over the longer trips if it hadn’t been for the head of VALIA, who just beat him in the slighter shorter G2 Prix Maurice De Nieuil over 2,800m. The Aga Khan-owned filly has opted to run in the G2 Prix de Pomone on the same card and that should give him every chance to get back onto the podium.
German raider RIP VAN LIPS, who in the spring beat BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN into third place in a G2 at Hoppegarten, Berlin, is coming to Deauville after a lengthy break following an unsuccessful attempt in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m. He is capable of winning on his first start after a break, but this is a tough ask, as he is running against some horses that have been trained with this target in mind and are still improving.
In this good ground, ALKUIN might struggle to produce his best form. There is no doubt about his stamina as he proved when running second in the G1 Prix du Cadran over 4,000m at the end of last season, but the ground that day was bottomless, and he has not been able to reproduce that same form since.
SELECTIONS: 1. SKAZINO, 4. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, 2. RIP VAN LIPS & 3. RED VERDON
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 1. SKAZINO, 4. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN & 2. RIP VAN LIPS
S2-6: Multiple – 2. NATURE'S COLORS, 7. ANIMAL FEVER & 1. BE MY DAY
S2-7: Multiple – 2. MANSOUN, 4. OUT OF TOWN & 6. GONERIL
S2-6 Class 2 Allowance
NATURE'S COLORS should make up for lost time in this 1,600m contest. He’s only made it to the track six times since his debut two years ago but he is a smart performer. He won a 1,500m Listed race on the polytrack at Deauville early last year, but his season ended after finishing down the field in a G3 over 1,600m at Chantilly in May. The way he pulled clear in the closing stages to win over 1,600m at Clairefontaine two weeks ago, when returning from a 15-month break, suggests his troubles are behind him. He was a bit fresh in the early stages so he should sharpen up for that victory.
ANIMAL FEVER is incredibly consistent. She hasn’t finished out of the first three in any of her seven races. Her sole win came when she stormed home by more than five lengths over 1,600m on the polytrack at Chantilly in November in a race that has worked out really well. She went on to finish a close third in a Deauville Listed race over 1,500m the following month. Her third over 1,600m on soft ground at Chantilly last month was an excellent return from seven months off the track and she should improve a lot for the run.
BE MY DAY is unexposed over this 1,600m distance. He made all the running when an impressive four-length winner over 1,600m on only his second try at ParisLongchamp last month. The draw did for him when attempting to follow up over 1,600m at Deauville last week. He tracked all the way over from the far side to the stands’ rail and still looked to have the field stretched out with 300m to run before fading into sixth. He is capable of much better.
VARKESHA is a lovely prospect. She showed plenty of promise in her first three starts – all over 1,600m – and she appreciated the step up in distance to 1,950m when successful at Les Sables D’Olonne last month. There might be a few too quick for her but she has plenty of class.
This might be a bit hot for ROYAUMONT but he is at his best over this distance. He won a 1,600m handicap on the polytrack at Chantilly in November and he stayed on well to snatch third place over 1,600m at Vichy two weeks ago. This is tougher, though.
SELECTIONS: 2. NATURE'S COLORS, 7. ANIMAL FEVER, 1. BE MY DAY, 3. VARKESHA & 4. ROYAUMONT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 2. NATURE'S COLORS
Selections – 7. ANIMAL FEVER, 1. BE MY DAY, 3. VARKESHA & 4. ROYAUMONT
S2-7:
Banker – 2. MANSOUN
Selections – 4. OUT OF TOWN, 6. GONERIL, 3. NOSDARGENT & 9. PARAFECTION
S2-7 Class 3 Handicap
A tricky handicap to conclude the card, with many of these exposed horses who struggle to win.
MANSOUN makes most appeal with Christophe Soumillon taking the ride. He caught the eye running on well from too far back in the field last time out on the polytrack at Deauville over 1,900m, producing a strong final 600m time of 33.87s. Horses that raced prominently filled out the places that day, so it looks an effort that can be upgraded. Cedric Boutin’s runner tends to be competitive in better events than this and can improve on his last run now dropping in grade.
Unlike many in this race, OUT OF TOWN brings recent form, which could count for plenty in this. She won two starts ago at ParisLongchamp over 1,900m, staying on strongly to get up in the shadows of the post in a strongly run race. Last time out on the polytrack here at Deauville over 1,900m, she looked slightly unlucky when trapped behind horses nearing the finish. Once in the clear she ran on well but wasn’t suited by having to quicken up off a slow gallop that day. She should be capable of showing up well again.
GONERIL has been performing consistently this season and again ran with plenty of credit on turf at Deauville over 2,000m when bumping into an unexposed rival. While this drop in trip may not be ideal, she now has the assistance of Stephane Pasquier and can hit the frame once again.
NOSDARGENT won over 1,900m at Chantilly earlier in the season but has been in poor form since. He finished well behind MANSOUN here recently and needs to stage a revival. A return to Class 3 company may help his and the booking of Mickael Barzalona catches the eye.
On further down the handicap who could run well is PARAFECTION, who has been consistent in lesser events this season, running well for fifth at Saint-Malo over 1,800m most recently. He stuck on well from the back of the field there and as a winner over further should be suited by this step back up in trip. Several horses who finished in front of him have gone on to run respectable races since and he could run into one of the minor places.
SELECTIONS: 2. MANSOUN, 4. OUT OF TOWN, 6. GONERIL, 3. NOSDARGENT & 9. PARAFECTION
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