Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 3yo and up 1 win

This 1,200m allowance race on dirt is for one time winning 3YOs and upper. I studies the races over 1,200m on dirt at current Nakayama meeting which started on 11th September and found front runners and runners who track the leaders closely are doing very well, while closers have been struggling.

My favourite in this race is KIMIWA TERU, who was narrowly beaten in an allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 12th September. He covered 1,200m for 1 minutes and 10.8 seconds, which is his personal record. He won maiden over the same course and distance as this race last December, and it is obvious that Nakayama is a suitable course for this 3YO colt by ASIA EXPRESS. I pick him up as my first choice without any hesitation.

TUITION, winner of maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 10th January is my second choice. I assess it is a good effort, as the 3YO colt by DISCREET CAT did not wince under a lot of kick back at all and draw clear to win by a length. While he has not run since then, he was breezed together with a three time winner on Wednesday at Miho Training Centre and was not losing out. It looks he has improved physically and mentally. And he is ready to run.

CHEERFUL ROSE, 5YO mare by TO THE GLORY, finished within the first four in her last three starts and is consistent at this class. It looks the pace of this race should be strong and I believe it helps the closer. CHEERFUL ROSE is my third choice.

Lightly-raced MAILLOT BLANC is my fourth choice. While he is now 5YO, he has run only five times. He won a maiden for the first time starters over the same course and distance as this race in December 2018, and finished third in an allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race in September 2020. This is the first start for him since 25th July and I am afraid his fitness might be 80% or 90% at the moment. However, I believe he has the ability to finish within first four here.

KNIGHT COMMANDER, who finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 18th September, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 16. KIMIWA TERU, 5. TUITION, 6. CHEERFUL ROSE, 7. MAILLOT BLANC & 12. KNIGHT COMMANDER

S1-2 3yo and up 1 win

The field of this 2,200m allowance race for one time winning 3YO and upper on turf is small, but quite open. Tempo tends to be moderate at this course and it is another tendency that the tempo is picked up at far turn.

My favourite is TO FACE, who has started eight times and finished within first four in seventh of them. The 3YO colt by MAURICE finished third in an allowance race for one time winners at Hakodate on 24th July and I understand it was a good effort, because the tight track at Hakodate did not suit him. I believe 2,200m at Nakayama should suite him well, because he can put in a long spurt.

CROSS THE RUBICON has been consistent at this class, finishing within first four in last three starts. He is by FENOMENO, winner of G2 St Lite Kinen over the same course and distance as this race, and I believe 2,200m at Nakayama should suit CROSS THE RUBICON. In fact, he won a maiden at Nakayama in December 2019. CROSS THE RUBICON is my second choice.

After winning a maiden at Chukyo on 15th May, HEADS OR TAILS finished third in an allowance race for one time winners at Kokura on 4th July and finished second in an allowance race for one time winners at Kokura again on 17th July. It is obvious that the 3YO filly by DURAMENTE is competitive at this class. She is trained by Naosuke Sugai and was breezed along with SODASHI this week at Ritto Training Centre. HEADS OR TAILS fought well against the dual G1 winner of the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), and I feel she is improving. HEADS OR TAILS is my third choice.

While BREAKUP was beaten tenth in an allowance race at Niigata on 8th August. The 3YO colt by NOVELLIST did not have a smooth path at the middle of the homestretch and I understand that we can forget about the poor performance. He won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 18th April and I am sure 2,200m at Nakayama suits him well. And he is a versatile horse, who can adopt with strong pace and slow pace. BREAKUP is my fourth choice.

MEINER GRAND, has started 10 times and failed to win a race. On the other hand, the 3YO colt by GOLD SHIP finished second in four races, including a maiden at Niigata on 5th September. It looks that this race is suitable for him and I reckon he is able to finish within first five, running against one time winners here.

SELECTIONS: 8. TO FACE, 4. CROSS THE RUBICON, 7. HEADS OR TAILS, 2. BREAKUP & 5. MEINER GRAND

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 8. TO FACE
Selections – 4. CROSS THE RUBICON, 7. HEADS OR TAILS, 2. BREAKUP & 5. MEINER GRAND
S1-3:
Banker – 9. EMERGING ROLE
Selections – 2. ONLY ONE BOY, 1. TOMOJA LIA, 7. PIONONO & 5. LONG RUN

S1-3 3yo and up 2 wins

This allowance race over 1,800m on dirt is for two time winning 3YOs and upper.

My favourite is EMERGING ROLE, who won a maiden at Sapporo on 20th June and an allowance race for one time winners at Hakodate on 3rd July, both of which are impressive performances. Then, the 3YO colt by NEO UNIVERSE was beaten eighth in the allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo on 29th August and disappointed the punters who supported him as 1 to 5 hot favourite. I think the pace was too strong for EMERGING ROLE, who tracked the leader from the second position and his tank became empty at the top of the homestretch. It was the first time for him to compete against two time winners and I believe it was a good experience for him. I understand it is not a good idea to forsake him after only one poor performance.

ONLY ONE BOY finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 20th September and I understand it was a good effort, because it was the first start for the 4YO colt by CURREN BLACK HILL since 4th July. He won a maiden on March 2020 and allowance race for one time winners on January 2021, both of which are over the same course and distance. Therefore, 1,800m on dirt at Nakayama suits him well. ONLY ONE BOY is my second choice.

TOMOJA LIA won an allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 11th July, and finished seventh in the G3 Leopard Stakes at Niigata on 8th August. While the competition at Leopard Stakes might be too tough for TOMOJA LIA, I access he ran bravely and I have the feeling that he could be competitive against two time winners. TOMOJA LIA is my third choice.

PIONONO finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama last December and TRANSNATIONAL, winner of that race, won an allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 20th September. Hence, I understand we should regard the form in Nakayama highly. Although this is the first start for PIONONO since April, the 4YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA is trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. PIONONO is my fourth choice.

While LONG RUN was beaten ninth in the local G1 Japan Dirt Derby at Oi on 14th July. He had never run under floodlights at night meetings before and I understand we should forget about the poor performance. He has collected two wins over the same course and distance as this race. And he has been trained very well in recent weeks at Miho Training Centre. LONG RUN is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. EMERGING ROLE, 2. ONLY ONE BOY, 1. TOMOJA LIA, 7. PIONONO & 5. LONG RUN

S1-4 Saffron Sho

The field of this 1,600m race on turf for 2YO fillies includes several impressive winners of maiden at summer meetings.

RIA GRACIA is the winner of a maiden at Niigata on 15th August and it was an impressive performance. The filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA broke slowly and was at 10th position in 14 runners’ field at the top of the homestretch. Then, she delivered the strongest challenge and made up so much ground, covering final 600m for 33.7 seconds, which is the quickest, to win by neck. The half-sister to RIA AMELIA, winner of the G2 Rose Stakes and the G3 Artemis Stakes, was beaten third in a maiden for newcomers at Tokyo on 6th June and has improved dramatically since the first start. It is encouraging that Christophe Lemaire is booked her for this race. RIA GRACIA is my first choice.

BE ON THE MARCH is the winner of a maiden over 1,400m at Tokyo on 6th June, and it was also an impressive performance. She was settled in middle of field on the rail and responded very well when Mirco Demuro on saddle asked her at the top of the homestretch. I have a feeling that the extra 200m helps her on Sunday. While she has not run since that start, she has had nice gallop twice a week since the beginning of September at Miho Training Centre, and I believe she is ready to run her race on Sunday. BE ON THE MARCH is my second choice.

LADY BALLANTINE, who made all in the maiden over 1,800m at Niigata on 25th July is my third choice. The filly by SATONO ALADDIN has natural speed and I believe that 1,600m at Nakayama, is more suitable for her than the previous start, 1,800m at Niigata. In fact, the connections selected the maiden over 1,400m as the first start for LADY BALLANTINE, however, she was excluded from the field and then re-arranged to enter in the maiden over 1,800m.

SHIGERU IWAIZAKE won a maiden over 1,800m at Kokura on 17th July easily, while the jockey did not use his whip at all. While the distance of this race is 200m shorter than the maiden, her pedigree suggests that it should help her, as her dam is the winner of four races between 1,200m and 1,400m. SHIGERU IWAIZAKE is my fourth choice.

WATER NAVILLERA who won a maiden over 1,500m at Sapporo on 21st August by one and three quarters of length, covering the final 600m for 34.8 seconds, co-quickest of 13 runners, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 5. RIA GRACIA, 8. BE ON THE MARCH, 2. LADY BALLANTINE, 1. SHIGERU IWAIZAKE & 7. WATER NAVILLERA

S1-5 Ibaraki Shimbun Hai

Ibaraki Shimbun Hai is a 1,800m race on turf for 3YO and uppers two time winners. 3YOs competed well against older horses through summer meetings and the current 3YO generation in Japan is vintage crop. I believe I should regard 3YOs highly in the races through autumn campaign.

My favourite is VARIAMENTE, 3YO colt by DURAMENTE, who passed away on 31st August at the age of nine. After winning maiden for newcomers at Hanshin, he finished second in the Listed Wakagoma Stakes at Chukyo on 23rd January, beaten by neck, covering the final 600m for 36.7 seconds, the quickest of seven runners. While he run neither the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) nor the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), first and second leg of the Triple Crown, he ran against older horses for the first time in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 26th June and finished third, beaten by head. This performance proves that he can be competitive at this class against older horses. While he has not run since then, he has been given good piece of work twice a week since the beginning of September at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run.

The most consistent runner in the field is KITANO IMPACT, 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT. After graduated from the class for one time winners at Chukyo on 20th March, he started at this class for three times and finished second in all three starts. Nakayama is his favourite track as he has started there twice, won one of them and finished second once. KITANO IMPACT is my second choice.

R BARON, winner of the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 11th September, is my third choice. The winning time of the allowance race, 1 minute and 46.6 seconds, is faster than standard and I feel the 3YO colt by MAURICE has ability to compete against two time winners. And there is no front runner with speed in the field apart from him and I believe he can run his race at front.

I assess NARINO MONTAGNE, who won the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 18th September, should have ability to finish within first four here.

USHBA TESORO, who won the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 8th May by three lengths, is my fifth choice. The 4YO colt by ORFEVRE has finished fourth in the Listed Principal Stakes last year and I feel he has ability to compete well against two time winners.

SELECTIONS: 4. VARIAMENTE, 12. KITANO IMPACT, 11. R BARON, 2. NARINO MONTAGNE & 1. USHBA TESORO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 4. VARIAMENTE
Selections – 12. KITANO IMPACT, 11. R BARON, 2. NARINO MONTAGNE & 1. USHBA TESORO
S1-6:
Banker – 4. PIXIE KNIGHT
Selections – 12. RESISTENCIA, 14. DANON SMASH, 11. GENDARME & 9. KURINO GAUDI

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 4. VARIAMENTE, 12. KITANO IMPACT & 11. R BARON
S1-6: Multiple – 4. PIXIE KNIGHT, 12. RESISTENCIA & 14. DANON SMASH
S1-7: Multiple – 4. DISCERNING, 2. SHONAN ANIME & 6. MISUZU GRAND O

S1-6 Sprinters Stakes

3YO generation competed very well against older generations at summer meetings at Niigata, Sapporo, and Kokura in July and August. It is remarkably enough that thoroughbred born in 2018 have already won four Graded Stakes running against older horses. ALL AT ONCE won the G3 Ibis Summer Dash at Niigata on 25th July, YOKA YOKA won the G3 Kitakyushu Kinen at Kokura on 22nd August, SODASHI won the G2 Sapporo Kinen at Sapporo on 22nd August, and LEI HALIA won the G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo on 29th August. It shows that current 3YO is “vintage crop” and I believe we should regard 3YOs highly in the major races at the upcoming autumn season.

My favourite in the G1 Sprinters Stakes is PIXIE KNIGHT, 3YO colt by MAURICE. While he is the winner of the G3 Shinzan Kinen over 1,600m, the connection decided to cut back the distance after he was well beaten in the G1 NHK Mile Cup and this change of route has worked well. PIXIE KNIGHT finished second to FIRST FORCE, who established track record, in the G3 CBC Sho at Kokura on 4th July, and finished second to RESISTENCIA in the G2 Centaur Stakes at Chukyo on 12th September. The margin in the G2 Centaur Stakes was only a neck, and I believe he can turn the table in Sprinters Stakes, as the 3YO should have a plenty of room to improve.

RESISTENCIA is my second favourite. The 4YO filly by DAIWA MAJOR started in the races over 1,200m and 1,400m for five times, won four of them and finished second once. Though RESISTENCIA has not run at Nakayama, she collected four wins, out of five wins in total, at clockwise track and I believe she can handle the track at Nakayama. And it is the tendency that fillies and mares run well in Sprinters Stakes.

DANON SMASH, who finished third in this race in 2019 and second in this race in 2020, is my third favourite. He won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chukyo in March comfortably, beating RESISTENCIA, and his performance in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint in last December was very impressive. Although he has not run since he was well beaten in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize in April, DANON SMASH has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.

In spite of breaking very slowly and stumbling soon after the break, GENDARME managed to finished fourth in the G2 Centaur Stakes, covering the final 600m for 32.6 seconds, the fastest of 17 runners. The winner of the Listed Shunrai Stakes over the same course and distance as Sprinters Stakes in April is my fourth choice.

KURINO GAUDI, who finished first and demoted to fourth in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in 2020, is my fifth choice. He finished third in the G2 Centaur Stakes and I reckon it was a good effort, because it was the first start for him since May.

SELECTIONS: 4. PIXIE KNIGHT, 12. RESISTENCIA, 14. DANON SMASH, 11. GENDARME & 9. KURINO GAUDI

S1-7 Sotobo Stakes

It looks to be open in this stakes race for three time winners of 3YO and uppers over 1,200m on dirt.

DISCERNING won allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 20th March by three lengths, which is very impressive. Since then, the 6YO gelding by STREET CRY have competed in this class twice, including finishing sixth on 2nd May. I feel the distance of 1,400m in that race was too long for him. His performance kept improving and made all to finish fourth in the next start over 1,200m on 23rd May. Nakayama is his favourite track, as he started there for three times, won two races, and finished second once. While he has not run since May, he has had nice gallops twice a week since middle of August at Miho Training Centre and I am sure he is ready to run. DISCERNING is my favourite.

Although this is the first time for SHONAN ANIME to compete against three time winners, I believe the 4YO colt by SMART FALCON is competitive in Sotobo Stakes, because his performance in the allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 7th August, which he won by two and a half lengths, was very impressive. After running in the races over 1,700m and 1,800m for eight times, the connection decided to shorten the distance and he finished within first two in three races from the recent four starts. It is obvious that 1,200m is the most suitable distance for him. SHONAN ANIME is my second choice.

Lightly-raced MISUZU GRAND O is my third choice. The 3YO colt by SOUTH VIGOROUS won allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 6th March and allowance race for two time winners at Hakodate on 10th July. And he tried to compete against three time winners for the first time at Chukyo on 12th September and ran well to finish second. It is no doubt that he is improving and good enough to run well in Sotobo Stakes on Sunday.

SUPER AKIRA has started at this class twice and was well beaten in both starts. On one hand, his recent form is poor. On the other hand, the 6YO horse by JOHANNESBURG has collected all his three wins at races over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama and I expect SUPER AKIRA is much better when he runs over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. And he has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre. SUPER AKIRA is my fourth choice.

BURNING PESCA, who finished third in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 4. DISCERNING, 2. SHONAN ANIME, 6. MISUZU GRAND O, 5. SUPER AKIRA & 15. BURNING PESCA

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