 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Regarded by many as the world’s greatest race, the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m is always a real spectacle and this edition looks no different.
It is easy to argue that the barrier draw hasn’t been in the favour of either ADAYAR or RAABIHAH, but both still hold leading claims. Although the stats suggest a draw in 15 isn’t ideal for RAABIHAH, her style of racing should allow her plenty of time to settle from off the pace. She was impressive in the G2 Prix de Pomone over 2,500m last time – her first win in over a year – and that should have given Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge plenty of confidence.
There hasn’t been a winner drawn in stall 11 this century, but ADAYAR will be hoping to change that. Charlie Appleby’s contender has been superb this season, winning the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m and G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m in an impressive fashion. A setback prior to this is a concern, but if in the same form of his subsequent two victories, he’s a big player.
Since winning the G1 Prix de l'Opera over 2,000m on this card last year, TARNAWA has always been regarded as an ideal type for the Arc. And those claims were only strengthened when she took the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf over 2,400m on her next start. She was impressive on her seasonal bow at Leopardstown over 2,400m and although she was beaten last time in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m, it was a fine performance over a trip that is slightly shorter than her optimum. There can be no complaints over a draw in three and she looks a huge danger to all.
Charlie Appleby has a strong hand in the race with HURRICANE LANE also holding strong claims. The son of FRANKEL has won six of his seven career starts, the last three being at G1 level. Having won the Irish Derby over 2,400m, he was superb when landing the Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m, before again winning well in the St. Leger Stakes over 2,905m. The recent rain is in his favour, and he looks ready-made for this contest.
The placings can be completed by SNOWFALL. She won four races in a row to start the season, three in G1 company, including the G1 Oaks Stakes at Epsom over 2,405m, which she won by an incredible 16 lengths. Aidan O’Brien’s filly wasn’t at her best last time in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m, but that was only a trial.
SELECTIONS: 6. RAABIHAH, 4. TARNAWA, 11. HURRICANE LANE, 10. ADAYAR & 15. SNOWFALL
S2-2 Prix de l'Opera
This year’s Prix de l’Opera over 2,000m, it looks a wide-open affair.
It’s hard not to feel that AUDARYA was slightly unlucky last time out in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet over 2,000m at Deauville. She looked to travel too keenly behind the pace and that left her vulnerable to a late closing rival after she had struck the front inside the final 400m. James Fanshawe’s mare will have to settle better in this stronger race, but the fact that there should be more pace should help her. Third in this contest last year, she handles the track well, goes on soft ground, and looks to hold every chance once again.
AMBITION finished behind AUDARYA last time at Deauville, but looked the horse to take out of the race. She was still looking for gaps to appear inside the final 400m and once in the clear, she had too much ground to make up on the leaders. However, she stayed on strongly and that finishing effort suggested she had more still to give. Things could work out better for her here.
Master French trainer Andre Fabre hasn’t won the Prix de l’Opera since 1997, but he looks to have an interesting candidate this year in the lightly raced BURGARITA. This filly only made her debut in April, but in five runs has quickly progressed into a G1 performer. She finished a close third in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m in June, when finishing off her race to good effect. However, the last twice she has looked outpaced over 2,400m to 2,500m, which would be a concern for her now dropping back in trip and she might have to settle for a place.
SIBILA SPAIN was the filly responsible for injecting the pace into the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m, when putting up a gutsy display from the front and only fading in the final 200m. This FRANKEL filly has won in good style since at ParisLongchamp over 2,100m and with her likely to get the run of the race out in front once again, she can put in another good display.
German trainer Andreas Wohler has a 24 percent strike rate in France this season and his runners always need plenty of respect when they line up in big races. His unbeaten PALMAS is an intriguing contender after her runaway victory in the G1 Henkel-Preis Der Diana - German Oaks over 2,200m. However, the form of that race hasn’t worked out well and she may lack the necessary experience in a race of this nature.
SELECTIONS: 5. AUDARYA, 2. AMBITION, 8. BURGARITA, 14. SIBILA SPAIN & 9. PALMAS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 5. AUDARYA
Selections – 2. AMBITION, 8. BURGARITA, 14. SIBILA SPAIN & 9. PALMAS
S2-3:
Banker – 9. GLASS SLIPPERS
Selections – 15. SUESA, 5. BERNEUIL, 13. WINTER POWER & 1. WILD MAJESTY
S2-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
Run on the ParisLongchamp sprint course, the Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m is one of the premier sprints of the European Flat season. UK and Irish runners have a strong record in this race, so much so that there have only been two French-trained winners since 2011.
The home brigade looks to have a strong chance this year, though, in the shape of SUESA. Francois Rohaut’s filly has been highly progressive, including when showing a brilliant turn of foot and pulling away easily to land the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood in July. Soft ground is a big positive for SUESA, but the worry is that most of her winning has been done over further than this 1,000m. Also, as a hold up horse, she could encounter some trouble in running as it can be hard to come from off the pace over 1,000m on the sprint course.
One runner with plenty of course form is GLASS SLIPPERS whose liking for this track is clear, after winning this race in 2019 and only going down narrowly last season. Kevin Ryan’s mare usually races up with the pace as she did last time out when just losing out in the G1 Flying Five Stakes over 1,000m at the Curragh. While she was beaten the time before by SUESA at Goodwood, that was her first run for over eight months and she looked to get carried across the track towards the finish. After only two runs this season, she looks to have been prepared perfectly for a third attempt at the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp and she could take some stopping.
WINTER POWER has some high-class form to her name this season, notably when blowing her rivals away from the front in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m at York. While this track can suit a front runner, Tim Easterby’s filly looks to save her best form for York and was disappointing when fading a long way out in the G1 Flying Five Stakes last time.
A horse that looks on the improve is BERNEUIL who has only had 11 career starts and beat several of these rivals comfortably when winning over the same course and distance in the G3 Prix du Petit Couvert . He could hit the frame, as could WILD MAJESTY, who caught the eye running on from back in the field behind BERNEUIL last time. With a clearer passage, he should get closer to that rival.
SELECTIONS: 9. GLASS SLIPPERS, 15. SUESA, 5. BERNEUIL, 13. WINTER POWER & 1. WILD MAJESTY
S2-4 Prix de la Foret
The ground has come right for KINROSS in the G1 Prix de la Foret over 1,400m. Ralph Beckett’s British challenger loves testing conditions and he has become something of a specialist over this 1,400m distance.
He saw off NJORD in the G3 John of Gaunt Stakes over 1,434m at Haydock in May and returned from a two-month break to beat the smart CREATIVE FORCE in the G2 Lennox Stakes over 1,400m in the Goodwood mud. The drop to 1,300m just caught him out when fifth behind top-class MARIANAFOOT and TROPBEAU in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in August. This slightly longer distance will suit KINROSS and he has had a nice break since his last run.
SPACE BLUES has few peers over this 1,400m distance. He completed a superb four-timer with victory in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m at Deauville last year. His close fourth behind KINROSS in the G2 Lennox Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood this term came following a four-month break on ground softer than ideal. He used his sharp change of pace when a smooth winner of the G2 City Of York Stakes over 1,400m in August. There’s little doubt he has the class but testing ground does tend to blunt his speed.
TROPBEAU came home well when fourth in this race 12 months ago. She ran her best race since then when a fast-finishing runner-up behind MARIANAFOOT in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m. Her disappointing display behind SAGAMIYRA in the G3 Prix du Pin over 1,400m at ParisLongchamp last month is easy to explain as the ground was nowhere near soft enough. The recent rain has done her chance no end of good and she should get the decent gallop she likes.
SAGAMIYRA was well on top at the finish of the G3 Prix du Pin over 1,400m. She had previously shown she has no problem with softer ground when runner-up behind MOTHER EARTH in the G1 Prix Rothschild over 1,600m at Deauville two months ago. Mikel Delzangles’ filly is well worth another shot at this top level.
NJORD is a real mud-lover but he hasn’t had conditions to suit him very often this season. His third behind SACRED in the G2 Hungerford Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury was a fine effort and the softer ground brings him into the equation.
SELECTIONS: 3. KINROSS, 5. SPACE BLUES, 12. TROPBEAU, 11. SAGAMIYRA & 2. NJORD
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 3. KINROSS
Selections – 5. SPACE BLUES, 12. TROPBEAU, 11. SAGAMIYRA & 2. NJORD
S2-5:
Banker – 7. KAVIARE
Selections – 9. SAGA TIMGAD, 5. MON AMI L'ECOSSAIS, 6. KING ROBBE & 1. WE RIDE THE WORLD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 3. KINROSS, 5. SPACE BLUES & 12. TROPBEAU
S2-5: Multiple – 7. KAVIARE, 9. SAGA TIMGAD & 5. MON AMI L'ECOSSAIS
S2-6: Multiple – 3. TORPEN, 6. MARILLAMAN & 8. MAAVAH
S2-5 Class 1 Handicap
KAVIARE didn’t have the best of runs on her last start at Compiegne over 1,400m where she found herself towards the back of the field as they turned into the final straight. She finished her race really well, though, indicating that with a bit more luck in running, she would have gone very close. She has already won a handicap over this trip in the past and did well when she ran against the older generation at Deauville this summer. Reunited with Christophe Soumillon, she should be able to put that last slightly disappointing performance behind her.
One of the older horses who is hoping for a win in this 1,400m handicap is the 6YO MON AMI L’ECOSSAIS, who was expected to take a handicap at his local track at Deauville this summer, but who ran slightly below par on both occasions. His last run behind JERI at Saint-Cloud showed that he was slowly coming back to form and having dropped slightly in his handicap mark, he should once more be competitive here.
SAGA TIMGAD, on the other hand, is currently in great form following a successful return to the polytrack at Deauville at the end of August. That victory in a Class 2 handicap over 1,500m obviously didn’t come without penalties, but he should be able to build on that and if the ground turns soft on Sunday, he could finish in the frame.
Very soft ground will also favour KING ROBBE who is not very consistent, but can be brilliant on a good day. Trained by Mathieu Boutin, who regularly targets these type of handicaps, KING ROBBE won a similar handicap over the same course and distance in April. He then threw in a few bad runs, which means his handicap mark has dropped and hence gives him a better chance at this level.
The Cedric Rossi-trained WE RIDE THE WORLD is also very much at home at ParisLongchamp, where he won a handicap over 1,600m in July. An attempt in a G3 over 1,600m on his last start at Deauville did not produce the expected result, although it was still an encouraging performance. The drop back in trip should not bother him, but he is carrying a lot of weight.
SELECTIONS: 7. KAVIARE, 9. SAGA TIMGAD, 5. MON AMI L'ECOSSAIS, 6. KING ROBBE & 1. WE RIDE THE WORLD
S2-6 Class 2 Handicap
The ground will play a big role in this Class 2 Handicap over 1,400m, which concludes the day at ParisLongchamp. If the ground turns very soft, it will suit the Markus Nigge-trained horse MARILLAMAN. The gelding hasn’t run against the older generation yet but his last two runs proved that he is currently in great form. Admittedly he has had a very long season, which started in March and has seen him run every month since, but based on his third place in a handicap at ParisLongchamp over 1,400m, he is not feeling the effects yet.
TORPEN started his season even earlier in February at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, but apart a couple of times when he was dropped back in trip, he has hardly ever been out of the first three and is without doubt the most consistent performer in this race. He looks more than capable of finally adding a handicap to his name.
Henri-Alex Pantall does not have too many runners in this type of contest but the 4YO MAAVAH looks to be ideally suited for this event. Her mark went up after her last win at Le Lion d’Angers over 1,400m, but even though this is a step up in class and she has not been very competitive in handicaps, it would be wrong to ignore her. She also hasn’t run as often as some of her opponents, which might give her an edge.
DANTES is the only runner in this field who has won his last two starts over 1,400m. Bought out of a claiming race after winning a couple of races in Germany, he has known his fair share of trainers over the past 12 months, but is thriving under Christophe Ferland’s care. Ridden cleverly, he could make it three from three.
Following a long career in England where he was trained by Richard Hannon, BURIDAN joined Eoghan O’Neill’s yard in France at the end of last year. Campaigned mainly over 1,300m on the polytrack at Chantilly in the beginning of the season, he has form that ties in with TORPEN on the same track and distance. His last run was good, and he could just spring a surprise.
SELECTIONS: 3. TORPEN, 6. MARILLAMAN, 8. MAAVAH, 9. DANTES & 4. BURIDAN
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