 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
In expert analysis which I wrote in prior to G1 Sprinters Stakes, I mentioned current 3YO generation in Japan is vintage crop, as they competed well against older generation throughout summer meetings. It is testified at autumn meetings, for example, G1 Sprinter Stakes at Nakayama on 3rd October was won by PIXIE KNIGHT, 3YO colt by MAURICE, G2 Mainichi Okan at Tokyo on 10th October was won by SCHNELL MEISTER, 3YO colt by KINGMAN, and G2 Fuji Stakes at Tokyo on 23rd October was won by SONGLINE, 3YO filly by KIZUNA.
Although older horses look very tough, it makes sense to select 3YO colt, EFFORIA as my favourite in Tenno Sho Autumn.
The only one 3YO in the field is the winner of G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) over 2,000m, first leg of Triple Crown at Nakayama on 18th April, which he won by three lengths, and it is obvious that the colt by EPIPHANEIA stands at top of pyramidal classification for 3YO generation. And he is a winner of an allowance race for 2YO one time winners over the same course and distance as this race in November 2020. The connection declared soon after he was beaten second in G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo on 30th May that the first stop at autumn campaign for him is G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, and everything has gone on as mapping out during summer period. EFFORIA returned to Miho Training Centre from Tenei Branch of Northern Farm, where he spent easy time, on 30th September, and has been breezed twice a week since then. Trainer Yuichi Shikato is very happy with him, who has improved physically and mentally.
It is evident that the horses to beat for EFFORIA are GRAN ALEGRIA, 5YO mare, and CONTRAIL, 4YO colt, both of which are by DEEP IMPACT.
There is no doubt that the biggest challenge for GRAN ALEGRIA in Tenno Sho Autumn is the distance. The winner of five G1 races from 1,200m to 1,600m tried the trip of 2,000m for the first time in G1 Osaka Hai on 4th April at Hanshin and finished fourth. I reckon it was a good effort, because the ground was deep and heavy, which required power and stamina for runners to handle. I feel GRAN ALEGRIA stays the distance of 2,000m, provided that the ground is good. She enjoyed summer break at Tenei Branch of Northern Farm, the same place as EFFORIA, and returned at Miho Training Centre on 29th September. She has been trained beautifully since then.
This is first start for CONTRAIL, Triple Crown winner in 2020, since he was beaten third in G1 Osaka Hai in April. While his performance in Osaka Hai was disappointing, it was not surprising for me, because CONTRAIL absolutely hated the ground, which was heavy as mentioned previously, and was never travelling at any stage. CONTRAIL returned from Daisen Hills, where he enjoyed summer break, to Ritto Training Centre on 28th September, and has been trained well since then.
My fourth choice is POTAGER, who finished third in G2 Mainichi Okan over 1,800m, which is the most important prep race for Tenno Sho Autumn, as I believe the extra 200m should help him.
CURREN BOUQUETD’OR, who is always consistent and has placed in four G1 races, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 5. EFFORIA, 9. GRAN ALEGRIA, 1. CONTRAIL, 4. POTAGER & 14. CURREN BOUQUETD’OR
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