 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winning 3YOs and uppers over 1,800m on dirt at Hanshin. While this is a fair track, where true ability of runners reflects the result, we should remark that the tempo could be fast at this course.
My favourite is Godolphin’s INTENSE FLAME, who was beaten fifth in the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 24th October, although he was supported as the favourite. It was the first start for the 3YO colt by PYRO since July and he was too fresh at parade ring, where he sweat a lot. I understand wasteful consumption of energy before the start was the reason of the defeat. The winning time, 1 minute and 46.2 seconds, when he won maiden over 1,700m on dirt at Kokura on 18th July, was exactly the same as the winning time of the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance on the same day, and I believe he is competitive at this class.
One of the most consistent runner at this class in the field is HIGHEST POINT, who finished third in the allowance race for one time winners on 26th June and finished second in the allowance race for the same class on 24th October. Both of which are the 1,800m dirt races conducted at Hanshin. This 3YO colt by SYMBOLI KRIS S likes dry dirt surface at Hanshin. HIGHEST POINT is my second pick.
Another consistent runner in the field is KEY SLOGAN, who finished within first three in last four starts at this class. He is a closer who has strong late kick and the expected strong pace in this race should suit him. While he is a quirky horse, the jockey knows about it and should be able to control the 4YO colt by STORMING HOME well. KEY SLOGAN is my third choice.
While T M VENTURE was beaten tenth in the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 30th October, it was the first start for the 3YO colt by ESPOIR CITY since May and he was not ready to run. Since then, he has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and is much sharper now than he was before the previous start. He has finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo in January and I believe he is good enough to finish within the first four here.
YAMANIN SUPREMO finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 20th September and I reckon it was a good effort, as the rest of first five finishers are closers, while he followed the pace. YAMANIN SUPREMO is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS:8. INTENSE FLAME, 9. HIGHEST POINT, 3. KEY SLOGAN, 4. T M VENTURE & 5. YAMANIN SUPREMO
S1-2 3yo and up 2 wins
This is the allowance race for two-time winning 3YOs and uppers over 2,000m on dirt at Hanshin, where power and stamina are required to perform well.
My favourite is STRONG LINE, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners in the last two starts. While he was settled at rear of field and delivered a strong challenge on homestretch in the allowance race at Chukyo on 2nd October, he followed the pace and ran tenaciously on homestretch in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 24th October. His previous performances indicate that the 5YO horse by DUNKIRK can adapt to both strong and slow pace. With “power” and “stamina”, 2,000m dirt course at Hanshin should suit him.
LIVERPOOL TOWN, who won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance on 12th April in 2020 by eight lengths is my second choice. After that, he was sidelined for 14 months because of injuries and returned to racecourse in June 2021. It takes time for him to regain his form and he ran poorly in his first three starts this year. However, the 6YO horse by RULERSHIP performed well at Hanshin on 30th October, finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners, and I feel that he has been back into form now.
NARITA FORTE who finished fourth in an allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 10th July is my third choice. REPUN KAMUY, the second finisher in that race, finished third in G3 Leopard Stakes subsequently and KURINO HONOO, the third finisher, won a race for two time winners thereafter. Therefore, I understand we must regard the form of that handicap at Kokura highly. And he likes the track at Hanshin, where he started three times and won two of them.
Although TAGANO KING ROAD was well beaten in the last three starts at this class, he did not like wet dirt surface and I believe he will run better on dry dirt. And he performed well on turf and I believe this course, where the starting gate is set on turf course, should suit him. TAGANO KING ROAD is my fourth choice.
PLUNDERER has started in fifteen races on turf since his debut and this is the first start for him to run on dirt. His dam, PROUD SPELL, is the winner of G1 Kentucky Oaks and G1 Alabama Stakes. The pedigree suggests the change of surface from turf to dirt should work well. PLUNDERER is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. STRONG LINE, 1. LIVERPOOL TOWN, 8. NARITA FORTE, 5. TAGANO KING ROAD & 3. PLUNDERER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 6. STRONG LINE
Selections – 1. LIVERPOOL TOWN, 8. NARITA FORTE, 5. TAGANO KING ROAD & 3. PLUNDERER
S1-3:
Banker – 6. HONNEUR
Selections – 3. LEVEZZA, 1. PINOCHLE, 7. JUANA & 4. SILVER ACE
S1-3 3yo and up 2 wins
This is the allowance race for two time winning 3YOs and uppers over 2,200m on turf at Hanshin, where runners are required to show sustainable speed during the final part of the race.
My favourite is HONNEUR by DEEP IMPACT. She is nicely bred as a full sister to DES AILES, who is going to enter in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, the feature race of the day. She is a small horse with light flame and has not lived up to the high expectation, finishing eighth in G2 Flora Stakes at Tokyo on 25th April and sixth in G2 Rose Stakes at Chukyo on 19th September. However, she performed well in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 10th October, finished second running against older colts and horses. I have a feeling that she is improving and the time has come for her to graduate the class for two time winners.
LEVEZZA, who won the allowance race at Niigata on 4th September and graduated the class for one time winners, is my second choice. He finished fifth in G3 Mainichi Hai at Hanshin on 27th March, won by SHAHRYAR, who won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) subsequently, and I believe he has ability to compete well at this class. The 3YO colt by DURAMENTE has sustainable speed, which is required to perform well at this course.
PINOCHLE, who ran well in the last two starts, finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 14th August and Chukyo on 12th September, is my third choice. While the distance of last two starts was 2,000m, distance of this race is 2,200m and I believe extra 200m should help him.
Although this is the first start since September 2020 for JUANA, the 4YO filly by RULERSHIP trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I judge she is ready to run her race. She finished third in G2 Flora Stakes in April 2020 and I believe she has the ability to compete well in Graded Stakes. JUANA is my fourth choice.
While SILVER ACE was beaten eighth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 10th October. The 4YO colt by WORLD ACE was involved in furious speed battle in front and tired at homestretch. It looks there is no typical front runner in the field apart from him and I suppose he can set a moderate speed here. And it is encouraging that Takeshi Yokoyama is booked for him. SILVER ACE is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. HONNEUR, 3. LEVEZZA, 1. PINOCHLE, 7. JUANA & 4. SILVER ACE
S1-4 Kigiku Sho
Kigiku Sho is the stakes race for one time winning 2YOs over 2,000m on turf at Hanshin. KIZUNA, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2013, won this race in 2012 when he was 2YO.
JUSTIN PALACE, 2YO colt by DEEP IMPACT, who made successful racecourse debut in the maiden over 2,000m at Chukyo on 12th September is my favourite. The half-brother to PALACE MALICE, winner of the G1 Belmont Stakes in 2013, looks to be very straight forward and easy to handle during the race. In fact, the winning time, 2 minutes and 2.3 seconds was just fair. However, as he has been trained beautifully at Ritto Training Centre in last couple of weeks and looks much sharper than he was before the previous start, I believe he can run faster on Sunday.
GRAN DIA, 2YO colt by HARBINGER, who won a madien over 2,000m at Chukyo on 11th September, is my second choice. It was his second start and the 11th foal out of DIA DE LA NOVIA, winner of three Graded Stakes and third finisher in the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), performed much better than his first start. And the winning time, 2 minutes and 1.2 seconds, is faster than standard.
SOUND CLARE, impressive winner of a madien over 1,800m at Kokura on 22nd August, is my third choice. She is by KITASAN BLACK, whose first crop is now 2YOs and the extra 200m should help her. And Hanshin Racecourse should suit her better than Kokura Racecourse as the homestretch in Hanshin is longer.
MOZU TANJIRO, 2YO colt by A SHIN HIKARI, winner of the G1 Hong Kong Cup in 2015, is my fourth choice. He won a madien over 1,800m at Hanshin on 17th October, although he dwelt at the start and took wide route at far turn. The same case as SOUND CLARE, I believe the extra 200m should help MOZU TANJIRO on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 1. JUSTIN PALACE, 4. GRAN DIA, 6. SOUND CLARE & 3. MOZU TANJIRO
S1-5 Muromachi Stakes
Muromachi Stakes is the race for “open class”, which Graded Stakes winners and performers are eligible to run, while it is not given the status of Graded or Listed Stakes. And it is contested over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin.
GENETICS, winner of a 3YO and up race for open class over the same course and distance as Muromachi Stakes last December is my favourite. While the lightly raced 4YO colt by SOUTH VIGOROUS was beaten seventh in another 3YO and up race for open class last time out at Nakayama on 25th September, I reckon he was an unlucky loser, as he was boxed in on the rail on the homestretch and there was no room to go through. He loves the track at Hanshin, where he started for six times and won four of them. And he has been trained beautifully in last couple of weeks at Ritto Training Centre and I am sure he is in zone now.
ULTRAMARINE, who has been running consistently at this class, is my second choice. The 4YO filly also by SOUTH VIGOROUS finished second in a 3YO and up Handicap for open class at Niigata on 22nd August and won in the same class over the same course and distance as Muromachi Stakes on 23rd October. While I was slightly worried this race might come too soon after the previous start, she is energetic in the morning at Ritto Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run her race on Sunday.
While DUALIST was well beaten in the 3YO and up Handicap for open class at Niigata on 22nd August, the 3YO colt by MIKKI ISLE was involved in furious speed battle at front and he went too fast. He is the winner of Hyogo Junior Grand Prix, domestic G2 at Sonoda and finished second in a 3YO race in open class at Chukyo. I reckon he could be competitive here, running against older horses, provided he runs his race on Sunday. Although he has not run since August, he is trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I am sure he is now ready to run. DUALIST is my third choice.
I understand MEISHO TENSUI, who finished second in a 3YO and up Handicap for open class last November, will run better in winter than in summer and his season has come now. MEISHO TENSUI is my fourth choice.
CYCLOTRON, who finished second in Cluster Cup, domestic G3 over 1,200m dirt course at Morioka on 9th August is my fifth choice. The 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA likes the dirt course at Hanshin where he has started for six times and won four of them.
SELECTIONS:5. GENETICS, 8. ULTRAMARINE, 13. DUALIST, 1. MEISHO TENSUI & 9. CYCLOTRON
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 5. GENETICS
Selections – 8. ULTRAMARINE, 13. DUALIST, 1. MEISHO TENSUI & 9. CYCLOTRON
S1-6:
Banker – 3. AKAITORINO MUSUME
Selections – 1. LEI PAPALE, 9. WIN MARILYN, 15. WIN KIITOS & 7. SHAMROCK HILL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. GENETICS, 8. ULTRAMARINE & 13. DUALIST
S1-6: Multiple – 3. AKAITORINO MUSUME, 1. LEI PAPALE & 9. WIN MARILYN
S1-7: Multiple – 5. MEISHO TSUWABUKI, 2. JOSHO LEAD & 7. LE MONDE
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Cup
I asserted in the preview for the G1 Sprinters Stakes that this year’s 3YOs in Japan is vintage crop, and I repeated it in the preview for the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn. The result of those races corroborated the allegation, as the G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama on 3rd October was won by PIXIE KNIGHT, 3YO colt by MAURICE, and the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo on 31st October was won by EFFORIA, 3YO colt by EPIPHANEIA. I believe it makes sense to collect AKAITORINO MUSUME, 3YO filly by DEEP IMPACT, as the favourite in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup for 3YOs and uppers fillies and mares.
The beautifully bred filly by DEEP IMPACT (Japanese Triple Crown winner in 2005) out of APAPANE (Japanese Triple Tiara winner in 2010) was narrowly beaten in the first and second leg of Triple Tiara this spring. She finished fourth in the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) at Hanshin on 11th April, and second in the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) at Tokyo on 23rd May. She improved physically and mentally through summer break and did a workmanlike job at Hanshin on 17th October, when she captured the G1 Shuka Sho, final leg of the Triple Tiara, beating FINE ROUGE by half a length, although it was the first start for her since May. AKAITORINO MUSUME has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre since then, and Sakae Kunieda, who trains the filly for Makoto Kaneko, is very happy with her condition.
LEI PAPALE won the G1 Osaka Hai by four lengths beating colts and horses in April. But she only ran third in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen over the same course and distance as this race on 27th June and fourth the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers over 2,200m at Nakayama on 26th September. Both performances were disappointing. It is obvious that 2,000m is the best trip for the filly by DEEP IMPACT and 2,200m is slightly too far for her. However, as long as running against fillies and mares, I expect her persistent efforts could be rewarded and it is very important that Christophe Lemaire is booked for the first time in Queen Elizabeth II Cup, because Lemaire is excellent in helping the horse to save energy for crucial stage of race. LEI PAPALE is my second choice.
I am very impressed with the performance by WIN MARILYN when she won the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers, beating colts and horses, and I am sure she has the ability to win this race. Although she has not lost any training day since then, she is treated for capped elbow, which was healed in spring, but recurs recently. While I pick up her as my third choice, I understand we should monitor her condition closely until Sunday.
WIN KIITOS, who won the G2 Meguro Kinen at Tokyo on 30th May and finished second to WIN MARILYN in the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers, is my fourth choice. Unlike LEI PAPALE, 2,200m is slightly shorter than her best trip, but I believe she is still capable to finish within first four here.
SHAMROCK HILL, who started at Hanshin twice and won both of them, including the G3 Mermaid Stakes, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 3. AKAITORINO MUSUME, 1. LEI PAPALE, 9. WIN MARILYN, 15. WIN KIITOS & 7. SHAMROCK HILL
S1-7 Doncaster Cup
Doncaster Cup is a stakes race for two time winning 3YOs and uppers over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.
MEISHO TSUWABUKI won the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 24th October and this is the first time for the 3YO filly by MEISHO BOWLER to compete against two time winners. The winning time of the allowance race, 1 minute and 10.2 seconds, is faster than standard. For example, the winning time of the another allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on the previous day, was 1 minute and 10.6 seconds, which is 0.4 seconds slower than allowance race won by MEISHO TSUWABUKI, and I believe she is competitive at this class. She has finished second and won for her two starts at Hanshin, and Hanshin is her favourite track. She has been trained well at Ritto in the morning and I believe her condition is improving. MEISHO TSUWABUKI is my favourite.
JOSHO LEAD, who finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 31st October, is my second choice. As the allowance race was a slowly run race, the first three finishers are a front runner and runners who followed the pace. Therefore, I understand it was a good effort by JOSHO LEAD, who was off the pace and managed to finish fourth, covering the final 600m for 36.5 seconds, the second quickest in 13 runners. The tempo should be faster in Doncaster Cup and I believe the 4YO filly by KANE HEKILI will run better on Sunday.
LE MONDE, 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT, who has hit the board in two consecutive starts at this class, is my third choice. He finished fifth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 17th October, when his body weight was 26lbs heavier than the previous start. He is trained well in the morning since then and will be sharper on Sunday.
LAND VOLCANO, dead-heater with LE MONDE, finishing fifth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 17th October is my fourth choice. The 3YO colt by HENNY HUGHES dwelt at the start in the allowance race and could run better as long as he breaks quickly on Sunday.
While KEIAI DORIE has not run since April and this is the first time for the 4YO colt by ESPOIR CITY to compete against two time winners, his performance in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance on 24th April was very impressive and the winning time, 1 minute and 24.2 seconds, is much faster than standard. I believe he is competitive at this class and he has been trained well enough to run his race on Sunday. KEIAI DORIE is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 5. MEISHO TSUWABUKI, 2. JOSHO LEAD, 7. LE MONDE, 8. LAND VOLCANO & 4. KEIAI DORIE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
