 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-4 World Pool Pinnacle Stakes
The big question ahead of World Pool Pinnacle Stakes over 1,400m is how well the Justin Snaith trained WARRIOR will bounce back after his poor showing in the G1 Queen’s Plate.
This FUTURA gelding was slow out the blocks, had to settle near the back of the pack, and found himself ten lengths off the pace when they hit the first turn. From there it was mission impossible, and he was eventually the last to cross the line. To get WARRIOR back to winning ways - both physically and mentally – in just 21 days, will be a tough task.
The Vaughan Marshall trained SILVER OPERATOR, on the other hand, should go into the race brimming with confidence. He scored his fourth win over the same course and distance last time out and has drawn ideally. Although the field is relatively small, a good draw is a bonus as the 1,400m marker is set at 200m before the turn on the Kenilworth Summer Course. The only concern is that SILVER OPERATOR has never won two consecutive races, but he does look to get it right here. He beat RUSSIAN ROCK last time out with a 4lbs advantage and will have to do it again at level weights.
RUSSIAN ROCK, however, has also faltered in the meantime, but he did have excuses and has a proven record when it comes to putting a bad run behind him. RUSSIAN ROCK, trained by Dean Kannemeyer, is the best weighted here and both SILVER OPERATOR and RUSSIAN ROCK could be fighting out the finish again.
The surprise package could be WARRIOR’s stable companion SPEED MACHINE. Snaith has engaged leading apprentice Rachel Venniker for the ride and her 3lbs claim could give SPEED MACHINE a competitive advantage. He does boast a victory over course and distance. Venniker tops the apprentice log with 36 wins this season to date, more than double that of second-placed Kyle Strydom (15 wins).
Marshall’s other entry, the 4YO LOOK FOR HOUNDS, is another with claims. He is holding form and is 13lbs better off than the previous time he challenged RUSSIAN ROCK over the same course and distance. He must be included in exotics.
SELECTIONS: 2. SILVER OPERATOR, 1. RUSSIAN ROCK, 3. SPEED MACHINE, 4. WARRIOR & 8. LOOK FOR HOUNDS
S1-5 Summer Juvenile Stakes
Eastern Cape raiders have traditionally battled to saddle winners at Kenilworth, especially on the big race days. Gavin Smith and Alan Greeff, the two leading trainers from Gqeberha (formerly known as Port Elizabeth), both of them have a runner in this Summer Juvenile Stakes over 1,000m, and they are not without claims.
CRUISE CONTROL, trained by Gavin Smith, flew home in his solitary run to beat fellow raider CLIFF TOP by one and three-quarter lengths. By QUERARI, there is no question that CRUISE CONTROL has the pace required to take the honours. The only question will be his fitness, as that first run was over 800m. If he can maintain the pace he showed on debut over the further, he will be hard to beat.
CLIFF TOP, despite being beaten one and three-quarter lengths, is expected to give a much better account of himself second time out. He was heavily backed when beaten on debut and went off at about 5-10. Jockey Greg Cheyne, who retains the ride aboard CLIFF TOP, is reported to be very confident about his colt’s chances.
PACIFIC GREEN, from the yard of champion trainer Justin Snaith, was backed from 4-1 all the way down to 5-4 before her debut run over the same course and distance, and duly obliged under jockey S’manga Khumalo. That was against her own sex, and despite taking on some fast boys now, she again tops the bookmakers’ boards with Khumalo in the saddle again. Bred and owned by Drakenstein Stud, this filly is highly rated.
The one they all have to beat, however, is the Vaughan Marshall trained STREET OUTLAW. Impressive on debut, he beat four challengers who are renewing rivalry here, including WE'RE JAMMING, COUSIN CASEY, PURE MAVERICK and GRINKOV. This MASTER OF MY FATE colt does give WE’RE JAMMING 6lbs this time round after meeting at level weights, but that doesn’t seem enough to reverse the result. Judged on his debut run, STREET OUTLAW has the will to win, and that is worth more than just a few pounds.
SELECTIONS: 2. STREET OUTLAW, 1. CRUISE CONTROL, 4. PACIFIC GREEN, 7. CLIFF TOP & 11. WE’RE JAMMING
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. STREET OUTLAW
Selections – 1. CRUISE CONTROL, 4. PACIFIC GREEN, 7. CLIFF TOP & 11. WE’RE JAMMING
S1-6:
Banker – 1. ZAPATILLAS
Selections – 6. PACAYA, 3. UNIVERSAL, 7. SENSO UNICO & 2. NEVER ENDING RAIN
S1-6 Politician Stakes
The G3 Politician Stakes is often the biggest test of their careers for the 3YO contenders, with many being tested over 1,800m for the first time. This year is no exception, with only three of the runners having gone the distance.
The two runners most likely to take the honours this year are ZAPATILLAS and PACAYA, trained by Brett Crawford and Justin Snaith respectively. While both are stepping up to 1,800m for the first time, their past performances suggest that they will benefit from the extra rather than find it a challenge. The two have also contested two Graded events each and passed with distinction, albeit without success.
ZAPATILLAS finished off strongly in the G1 Cape Guineas last time out and, judged on that performance, will relish the extra 200m. He beat PACAYA by three and a quarter lengths in that race at level weights. This time, however, he gives PACAYA 6lbs, which on paper suggests that PACAYA could reverse the result.
With a Merit Rating of 107, the highest in the field, ZAPATILLAS is still the best weighted horse, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest that PACAYA is much better than his rating of 95 – his sixth-place finish in the G1 Queen’s Plate the most obvious. He finished just around three and three-quarter lengths behind the winner and stable companion JET DARK, running on well from way back to make up a lot of ground over the last 600m. Snaith has mastered the art of not only training horses, but also managing their Merit Ratings, and this definitely seems the case with PACAYA.
The biggest threat to the favourites is the Adam Marcus-trained UNIVERSAL and SENSO UNICO from Vaughan Marshall’s stable.
UNIVERSAL is definitely better than his results suggest as he was unlucky in both attempts at Graded success, first getting bumped in the G3 Cape Classic and then inconvenienced late when sitting very handy in third, just less than 2-lengths off the leader with 400m to go in the G1 Cape Guineas. If his luck changes, so will his results.
SENSO UNICO has the benefit of having gone the distance twice and has been progressing in leaps and bounds since shedding his maiden tag. He should be near the top of most punters’ shortlist.
Although the Glen Kotzen trained NEVER ENDING RAIN has not added to his maiden victory in six attempts, he has been performing consistently well while stepping up the class ladder, without being disgraced.
SELECTIONS: 1. ZAPATILLAS, 6. PACAYA, 3. UNIVERSAL, 7. SENSO UNICO & 2. NEVER ENDING RAIN
S1-7 Cape Flying Championship
The G1 Cape Flying Championship over 1,000m will see reigning Equus Champion Sprinter RIO QUERARI and rising star REAL GONE KID go head-to-head for the second time this season. And the result could well determine who will take Equus honours at the end of the season.
RIO QUERARI, trained by Justin Snaith, finished runner-up to Brett Crawford’s RUN FOX RUN in this event a year ago and will obviously attempt to go one better in this year’s renewal. He has had only one comeback run this season, finishing a close 0.2 length second over 1,100m at Kenilworth to REAL GONE KID when giving him 7lbs. At level weights he should reverse the form. It is obvious that Snaith has prepped his runner specifically for this race.
REAL GONE KID, trained by Brett Crawford, has won his last four starts, three this season, and is aiming to make it five in a row – a rare feat for any runner. Crawford’s colt is by SNITZEL out of G1-winning JET MASTER mare IN THE FAST LANE and a G1 victory will secure his place in the stallion barn of owners Ridgemont Stud. While Snaith has made winning Graded events look easy this summer, Crawford, with a much smaller yard, has won at least one G1 event every season for the last eight seasons. Victory here will see him maintain that record.
Among the rest of the field, the four most likely to challenge the two favourites are HELLO WINTER HELLO, CAPTAIN FONTANE, BEREAVE and SOUND OF WARNING.
HELLO WINTER HELLO is unbeaten over the same distance in her two runs this season after moving to the yard of J A Janse van Vuuren. She first won the Listed Gardenia Stakes and then beat a strong Pinnacle Stakes field. She now returns to the track where she scored her first five career victories a much improved runner.
CAPTAIN FONTAINE’s last outing – over 1,600m - is best ignored as he is an out-and-out sprinter. Dropping back to 1,000m, and with a tongue tie fitted for the first time by trainer Garth Puller, he could reaffirm why he was selected to go to Hong Kong, a move that never materialised and interrupted his career for a year.
BEREAVE, trained by Adam Marcus, has been progressing steadily. He relies heavily on his speed over the last 400m and dropping down to the shortest sprint distance for the first time in his career, could have a lot left in the tank when it matters most.
Don’t ignore SOUND OF WARNING this promising 3YO, who was unpopular in early betting. Trainer Sean Tarry is a master at priming his runners for the big days.
SELECTIONS: 1. RIO QUERARI, 4. REAL GONE KID, 7. CAPTAIN FONTANE, 6. BEREAVE & 12. HELLO WINTER HELLO
S1-8 Majorca Stakes
CAPTAIN’S RANSOM to do the double in G1 Majorca Stakes.
Trainer Justin Snaith has a superb filly in CAPTAIN’S RANSOM and the 4YO daughter of CAPTAIN AL can add a fourth G1 race to her repertoire when she contests the Majorca Stakes over 1,600m at Kenilworth. She won this race last year as a 3YO to add to her victory in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas. She is seen at her best over 1,600m, but her class pulled her through three weeks back when she captured the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m. For the first time she was pressed to the line but managed to keep her nose in front where it mattered. The runners CHANSONETTE, PRINCESS CALLA, SHE'S A KEEPER and SANTA THERESE, who finished second, fourth, fifth and sixth are all back for a second crack at lowering her colours in the Majorca Stakes but over 1,600m they will need a miracle to do so.
CAPTAIN’S RANSOM has raced eleven times for nine wins and a place, her lone unplaced effort coming in the G1 Garden Province Stakes at Greyville. She was drawn badly on a course where low number draws are vital and perhaps was rushed up in an effort to overcome her disadvantage which caused her to fade late.
But in the Western Cape, other than a narrow defeat at her second attempt at Kenilworth, she remains unbeaten. What this filly has is the uncanny ability to quicken in a matter of strides and before her rivals can react, she has gone clear – and the race is over. Jockey Richard Fourie will have to cope with barrier 10 draw which is not ideal, but is unlikely to hurt her at Kenilworth.
The main threat to her would have to be CHANSONETTE, winner of this season’s G1 Cape Fillies Guineas. She went on to show her ability by finishing just a short head behind CAPTAIN’S RANSOM in the Paddock Stakes. Grant van Niekerk has built up a good rapport with this Andre Nel-trained filly and he does have the benefit of barrier 4.
PRINCESS CALLA has had the misfortune of having to run against CAPTAIN’S RANSOM in all the fillies’ features and has only seen her hindquarters on four occasions. She did have the edge in the G1 Garden Province Stakes at Greyville but looks unlikely to get that same advantage in this race.
The G1 Garden Province Stakes was won by ZARINA who caused a 75-1 upset in doing so. Prior to that, she was also a regular victim of CAPTAIN’S RANSOM and that order resumed in the Pinnacle Stakes at Kenilworth when Candice Bass-Robinson ended up in fourth, two and a quarter lengths behind CAPTAIN’S RANSOM.
SHE’S A KEEPER had good form in Greyville but her best performances have been over further, and while she could place, she looks highly unlikely to upset the more fancied runners.
SELECTIONS: 1. CAPTAIN’S RANSOM, 8. CHANSONETTE, 3. PRINCESS CALLA, 2. ZARINA & 4. SHE’S A KEEPER
2nd DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-8:
Banker – 1. CAPTAIN’S RANSOM
Selections – 8. CHANSONETTE, 3. PRINCESS CALLA, 2. ZARINA & 4. SHE’S A KEEPER
S1-9:
Banker – 5. KOMMETDIEDING
Selections – 4. JET DARK, 11. DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, 6. LINEBACKER & 10. MARINA
S1-9 The Met
The Met is one of South Africa’s Big Three. The other two are the Durban July at Greyville and the Summer Cup at Turffontein.
Not too many horses have been able to pull off the Durban July, The Met double but KOMMETDIEDING could do just that on Saturday. This lightly raced son of ELUSIVE FORT has been a brilliant performer from the moment he hit the track as a juvenile and although an injury kept him out of last year’s Met, this 4YO colt as still been able to establish a record of five wins and four places from nine starts. One of the most exciting things about him are the people who surround him. He is trained by a small stable, comprising the father and daughter team of H W J Crawford and M Rix, and they have done wonders with KOMMETDIEDING.
Offers from all over the world came for this colt, but owner A Reynolds decided to keep him and winning The Met in his hometown would be the cherry on the cake. KOMMETDIEDING has had the perfect prep, with two excellent warm-up runs, finishing third in the Cape Mile and then second behind JET DARK in the G1 Queen’s Plate over 1,600m. He will prefer 2,000m and give the connections and jockey Gavin Lerena their first win in this race.
JET DARK’s victory in the Queen’s Plate was superb. He came with a late flourish and blew his opposition away. There is a question over his ability to stay 2,000m although he did win the G1 Champions Cup at Greyville over 1,800m. If he can produce a similar finishing burst over this distance, this TRIPPI colt will be hard to beat. Trainer Justin Snaith believes his runner will have no problem with the distance but it is far from certain. S’manga Khumalo has ridden him twice for two victories - and he is up again.
Snaith has four runners in the field, and he is expecting a lot from 3YO DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE. The son of TWICE OVER did win the G1 Cape Guineas from a wide draw, but in the process, he caused massive interference to a number of runners. Jockey Anton Marcus is prepared to get down to 119lbs to ride him so that speaks volumes for the colt’s ability.
During the KwaZulu-Natal winter season, there was little choice between LINEBACKER and KOMMETDIEDING, with the former getting the upper hand in the first two features, but the latter came out trumps in the Durban July. Vaughan Marshall's charge ran disappointingly when unplaced in the Queen's Plate, but he is better than that and deserves another chance.
Filly MARINA is the unknown quantity in the field. It is a massive jump in class for this daughter of SILVANO but she looks very decent and will love this 2,000m. She will be running on strongly in the straight and could run into the places.
SELECTIONS: 5. KOMMETDIEDING, 4. JET DARK, 11. DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE, 6. LINEBACKER & 10. MARINA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-9: Multiple – 5. KOMMETDIEDING, 4. JET DARK & 11. DOUBLE SUPERLATIVE
S1-10: Multiple – 9. SPARKLING WATER, 1. DOUBLEMINT & 7. ONE WAY TRAFFIC
S1-11: Multiple – 3. PAPER TRAIL, 2. HAN SOLO & 1. IZAPHA
S1-10 Western Cape Stayers
Trainer Mike de Kock is very selective when it comes to taking horses to Cape Town for major meetings. He plots their courses cautiously and will not travel the 1,500km from Johannesburg unless he is confident of success. De Kock has taken only one runner to Kenilworth for this important Met meeting and that is filly SPARKLING WATER.
As is so often the case with progeny of SILVANO, this beautifully bred filly out of DANSILI mare ESPUMANTI has taken a while to reach her peak but her last few performances indicate she is almost there. With the exception of the G1 Gauteng Summer Cup at Turffontein, where she failed to overcome the widest draw in the field, SPARKLING WATER has been in prolific form. Her best effort came last time out in a Pinnacle Stakes over 2,400m where she romped 3.75 lengths clear of her opposition. This time she will try 2,800m in the G2 Western Cape Stayer but that should be right up her alley. She comes into the race as the best weighted runner and with S’manga Khumalo up will take a power of beating.
DOUBLEMINT is from the powerful Justin Snaith yard and after a period in which he did not produce his best he came back to form with a victory in the G3 Chairman’s Cup over 2,500m. Based on the outcome of that race, he comes into this event very well handicapped and is better off with all those that finished behind him in that feature.
Although held on form, ONE WAY TRAFFIC is an improving stayer and was all the rage in the Chairman’s Cup but went down 0.30 lengths to DOUBLEMINT. He is now 7lbs worse off which is not in his favour but is improving with every run and is not without a chance.
CROME YELLOW finished fifth in last year’s race but had excuses. He also started to show better form this summer and went on to win the G3 Cape Summer Stayers over 2,500m last month with many of these rivals behind him. Now better weighted with all of them, he must be in with a fighting chance.
CATCHAFALLINGSTAR finished third last year but her recent form has not been that inspiring. However, she did have a good warm-up over 2,000m last time out and if she is able to produce her best form, she could place again.
SELECTIONS: 9. SPARKLING WATER, 1. DOUBLEMINT, 7. ONE WAY TRAFFIC, 2. CROME YELLOW & 8. CATCHAFALLINGSTAR
S1-11 MR 84 Handicap
Handicap races are rarely easy for bettors and the MR 84 Handicap over 1,400m is no exception.
In spite of carrying top weight IZAPHA could be the runner to beat. He ran a cracker over 1,600m at this course when runner-up in stronger company and that effort makes him a definite contender for top honours. As this race starts about 200m from the start of the bend, draws often play a part in the outcome. Low numbers are a massive advantage, so barrier 8 is not great for IZAPHA. However, he has very experienced jockey Grant van Niekerk in the irons and he knows how to overcome these hurdles.
HAN SOLO won his last race over the same course and distance and had six of these rivals, including PAPER TRAIL, SURJAY, SUN DAZED, YOU KNOW WHO, POLTERGEIST and PATH OF CHOICE behind him. He has improved with addition of blinkers in his last two starts but received a 7lbs penalty for his last win and on form, that brings some of them very close to him on handicapping. But he is well drawn at gate 2, has a top jockey up in Richard Fourie and that puts him in the hunt.
PAPER TRAIL flew up to run a three-length third behind HAN SOLO off a wide draw last time. Now 5lbs better off and an improved draw brings him right into the race with a big chance.
PATH OF CHOICE is an interesting runner. He found himself way too far back from a bad draw against HAN SOLO last time but will jump from gate 4 in this event and, with Craig Zackey in the irons, could provide some good each-way value.
TOUT A FAIT followed up a maiden victory with a second win, both over the same course and distance. Trainer Justin Snaith has engaged leading apprentice Rachel Venniker to ride this 3YO gelding who will benefit from a 3lbs claim. He is also well drawn in gate 3.
SELECTIONS: 3. PAPER TRAIL, 2. HAN SOLO, 1. IZAPHA, 7. PATH OF CHOICE & 11. TOUT A FAIT
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