Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-2 Godolphin Mile

AL NEFUD asked a few questions of Dubai World Cup hopeful HOT ROD CHARLIE on his last start in the 1,900m G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2. From a wide draw he was forced to use up plenty of energy when sent to the front early on and only weakened inside the final 200m. From stall two, he should be able to conserve more energy early in the race this time and this drop back in trip to 1,600m also looks in his favour.

Saeed Bin Suroor hasn’t won this G2 Godolphin Mile since 2012, and he fields the highly progressive STORM DAMAGE. This son of NIGHT OF THUNDER has only been beaten twice in seven career starts and was impressive last time out in the Ras Al Khor over 1,400m, a conditions race on the turf track at Meydan. He has won twice over 1,600m, but the worry is whether he will take to dirt on his first encounter with the surface. His dam sire, SUNDAY SILENCE, was a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner which provides plenty of hope that he will be up to the challenge, and he is sure to have done plenty of work on the dirt track.

An interesting runner is the Saudi Arabian-trained GREAT SCOT, who finished second to EMBLEM ROAD when last seen in the Saudi domestic G1 1,600m King Faisal Cup in January. That form now has a strong look to it after EMBLEM ROAD’s win in the G1 Saudi Cup over 1,800m and he doesn’t have much to find with others in this race. While he has a wide draw to negotiate, there is plenty of speed drawn to his inside which should allow rider Adel Al Furaydi to find a good position in midfield.

SECRET AMBITION was a ready winner of this contest 12 months ago, when beating both GOLDEN GOAL and SNAPPER SINCLAIR. The Bhupat Seemar-trained 9YO hasn’t been at his best this season however, and weakened into seventh in the Saudi Cup when last seen. He looks certain to be up with the pace again in this contest and while the drop back to 1,600m promises to suit, this looks a stronger renewal than last year.

Japanese raider SOLISTE THUNDER finished a good fourth in the G1 February Stakes over 1,600m on dirt at Tokyo last time out. Daisuke Takayanagi’s horse was seen finishing well off a slow early gallop and should be suited by a stronger pace.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. AL NEFUD, 15. STORM DAMAGE, 9. GREAT SCOT, 14. SOLISTE THUNDER & 12. SECRET AMBITION

 

 

S1-3 Dubai Gold Cup

MANOBO looks the one to beat in the 3,200m G2 Dubai Gold Cup. The Charlie Appleby-trained gelding is unbeaten in five career starts and looks to have easily acclimatised to his new surroundings if his last outing is anything to go by. He registered an impressive five and a half length win in the G3 2,810m Nad Al Sheba Trophy at this course last month. The 4YO has not competed over this distance before but the son of SEA THE STARS looks to have more than enough stamina in his pedigree and should find some improvement over this extended trip.

If there is one that could cause MANOBO a headache up front, it will be STAY FOOLISH. The Japanese 7YO comes into this on the back of a victory in the G3 3,000m Red Sea Turf Handicap in King Abdulaziz last month. Christophe Lemaire’s mount had some really nice types in behind that day, including 2,800m G1 Irish St Leger winner SONNYBOYLISTON and G1 4,000m Prix du Cadran heroine PRINCESS ZOE.

However, if the above runners are not up to the task, then that baton will fall to BARON SAMEDI who also featured in the Red Sea Turf Handicap. On that occasion, Joseph O’Brien’s charge wasn’t competitive, but his form is better than that. Last year he landed the G2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes over 3,200m and with the assistance of John Velazquez in the saddle, a better showing can be expected here.

VOLCANIC SKY is an interesting runner for Saeed bin Suroor who has been without a win in this race since 2013 with CAVALRYMAN. This gelding has had a few runs this year to reacclimatise himself to the Meydan track, where he already has course form having won the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy over 2,810m a year ago and has been seen in decent company. In his first outing he finished third to the impressive SISKANY in the Listed Al Khail Trophy over 2,810m, before finishing within a length of GLOBAL STORM in the race over 2,410m.

Another who could sneak into the money is Japanese raider VELOCE ORO. The 4YO will have a lot of questions that need answering but he looks an improving type and if he is able to build on some solid performances back in Japan, then he could be there at the finish.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. MANOBO, 9. STAY FOOLISH, 3. BARON SAMEDI, 10. VOLCANIC SKY & 13. VELOCE ORO

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 12. MANOBO
Selections – 9. STAY FOOLISH, 3. BARON SAMEDI, 10. VOLCANIC SKY & 13. VELOCE ORO
S1-4:
Banker – 10. MAN OF PROMISE
Selections – 4. CREATIVE FORCE, 1. A CASE OF YOU, 3. CASA CREED & 13. TAXIWALA

 

 

S1-4 Al Quoz Sprint

Everything is in place for MAN OF PROMISE to take the G1 1,200m Al Quoz Sprint. He has looked a sprinter from the top drawer on his last two races at Meydan. Charlie Appleby’s speedster was much too good for stablemate LAZULI in the Listed Dubai Sprint over 1,200m at this course in January and he backed it up with a hugely impressive performance over the same course and distance three weeks ago. The way he stormed clear of A CASE OF YOU to land the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint suggests he is a top-class sprinter and his draw in stall 12 should be a help.

Godolphin trainer Appleby also runs CREATIVE FORCE, who completed a stunning four-timer in Britain last year when landing the G3 Jersey Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot in June. The return to 1,200m later in the season was no problem and he signed off with a smooth victory in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes back at Ascot in October. He has a fine record when fresh so he has to have a leading chance.

A CASE OF YOU is also proven at the top level. He got up on the line to snatch the G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m at ParisLongchamp in October. Adrian McGuinness’ sprinter has plenty of form over 1,200m and further. He showed he has no problem with this distance when easily winning on Dundalk’s polytrack last month before chasing home MAN OF PROMISE in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over 1,200m.

American raider CASA CREED came from last to first to win the G1 Jaipur Stakes over 1,200m at Belmont Park last June. He has a fine second behind Japanese star SONGLINE in a 1,351m G3 at The Saudi Cup meeting last month when HAPPY ROMANCE was just behind in third. His draw in stall 15 should help him get a lovely lead into the race and he certainly doesn’t lack pace for this drop in distance.

TAXIWALA has been doing well in Qatar. His only defeat in his last seven races came when tried over 1,400m and there was a lot to like about the speed he showed when winning over 1,200m at Doha last month. He certainly deserves a crack at a race like this.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. MAN OF PROMISE, 4. CREATIVE FORCE, 1. A CASE OF YOU, 3. CASA CREED & 13. TAXIWALA

 

 

S1-5 UAE Derby

American raider PINEHURST looks to have leading claims in the G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m. Bob Baffert’s runner made most of the running and held off SEKIFU in determined fashion to land the G3 Saudi Derby over 1,600m last month. The dirt surface at Meydan tends to play to the strengths of the American horses better than the track at Saudi, and his frontrunning style is certainly suited to this course. The step up in distance to 1,900m is a bit of an unknown but he saw 1,600m out well last time. His proven gate speed should make sure he is in the right position early on from stall six.

William Buick rides Japanese star COMBUSTION in the famous Godolphin colours. He has shown progressive form in his native country and returned from a short break to put in a personal best when landing a good 1,600m Listed race at Tokyo last month. His neck second behind SEKIFU over 1,400m at Sonoda in November makes him closely matched with his fellow Japanese raider but he has improved since then. The longer distance should also suit Keizo Ito’s runner.

BENDOOG is likely to be ridden prominently from his draw in stall five. If he can hold his position just inside PINEHURST, he could easily make his presence felt in the closing stages. The form of his Meydan success from the front over 1,600m in January has worked out nicely and he’s run two sound races since. He was only just overhauled by QUALITY BOONE and WITHERING in the closing stages of the Listed Al Bastakiya over 1,900m early this month on a day when it appeared to be easier to come from off the pace. That was a decent effort.

QUALITY BOONE must be in with a chance. He has been consistent in four runs at Meydan. After three promising runs over shorter he swooped late to collar WITHERING and QUALITY BOONE in that 1,900m Listed contest three weeks ago but the track was favouring hold-up tactics more than it sometimes does.

SEKIFU is another contender helping make it a strong challenge from Japan. He stormed home when beaten just half a length by PINEHURST in last month’s G3 Saudi Derby over 1,600m so the step up to 1,900m should help. The track counters that advantage, though.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. PINEHURST, 6. COMBUSTION, 5. BENDOOG, 3. QUALITY BOONE & 13. SEKIFU

 

 

S1-6 Dubai Golden Shaheen

There have been just three winning favourites of the 1,200m G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen since 2011, so it’s not the easiest puzzle to solve.

DRAIN THE CLOCK is a good place to start given he’s been running in arguably better company so far this season. He beat JACKIE’S WARRIOR in the G1 Woody Stephens Stakes over 1,400m last June and although he has been beaten by that rival twice since over 1,300m and 1,400m, JACKIE’S WARRIOR was sent off odds-on for the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint so the form looks solid. DRAIN THE CLOCK has a good record over 1,200m.

MERAAS comes into this on the back of two good wins over course and distance, with the second coming in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint. He was trained by Mark Johnston in the UK has won the 1,200m Stewards’ Cup – one of the most competitive races of the British season. Connections could have run him in G3 company again, but they’ve decided to go for this G1 contest and he’s entitled to plenty of respect.

Trainer Doug Watson saddles both AL TARIQ and EVERFAST with the latter looking to hold stronger claims. It’s interesting that Watson has decided to drop the 6YO EVERFAST back significantly in trip given he ran over 2,000m last time in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3. He didn’t look to stay there and while this 1,200m trip is the shortest he’s run over, he has won over 1,400m.

All of them may be left chasing home DR SCHIVEL, though. He was a good winner of the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes over 1,200m on his first start for Mark Glatt, and then ran well to be just touched off in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint over 1,200m at Del Mar. The 4YO was last seen finishing down the field in the G1 Malibu Stakes over 1,400m behind FLIGHTLINE, but the form of his Del Mar second makes him the one to beat.

The placings can be completed by EASTERN WORLD. Formerly trained by Charlie Appleby in the UK, the son of DUBAWI isn’t the most consistent, but he has the ability to be involved. He has travelled strongly in races over further distances without seeing out the finish, so it was perhaps unsurprising he won the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal over 1,200m nicely last time. This contest requires further improvement but that’s not out of the question.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. DR SCHIVEL, 8. MERAAS, 3. DRAIN THE CLOCK, 4. EASTERN WORLD & 5. EVERFAST

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:
Banker – 2. DR SCHIVEL
Selections – 8. MERAAS, 3. DRAIN THE CLOCK, 4. EASTERN WORLD & 5. EVERFAST
S1-7:
Banker – 12. SCHNELL MEISTER
Selections – 8. LORD NORTH, 9. MOHAAFETH, 11. PANTHALASSA & 7. LORD GLITTERS

 

 

S1-7 Dubai Turf

Japanese-trained runners have a strong recent record in the G1 1,800m Dubai Turf and their three representatives must be respected here.

Christophe Lemaire rode four winners for Japan at The Saudi Cup meeting last month and this time takes the reins aboard SCHNELL MEISTER. The 4YO was last seen finishing second in the G1 Mile Championship over 1,600m at Hanshin in November and the step back up to 1,800m looks sure to suit. His only effort thus far over the 1,800m trip yielded a win in a hotly contested renewal of the G2 Mainichi Okan. He’s not an out and out stayer, and this 1,800m trip may be his limit, but if Lemaire can settle him towards the rear of the field with plenty of cover, then he has the turn of foot to fly home late at the finish.

On ratings, only last year’s winner LORD NORTH is superior. He’s been on the racecourse just once since his three-length beating of VIN DE GARDE in this race 12 months ago, reappearing on the polytrack over 2,000m at Lingfield in February. The majority of his runs have come over that longer trip, including a career-best when winning the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2020, but he’s two from two over 1,800m, so the step back in distance isn’t an issue. He should be fitter for that first run of the year and it’s clear that John Gosden has been preparing him for this all winter.

Two years younger than LORD NORTH and with a more progressive profile is fellow British raider MOHAAFETH. The 4YO son of FRANKEL will have to overcome a seven months lay-off, having last run in the 2,051m G1 International Stakes at York in August where he finished fourth, but he remains an exciting prospect and should come good this season. Whether that’s first time up or not remains to be seen, but he’s a horse with plenty of ability, and ground conditions at Meydan should suit.

Yoshito Yahagi is having a phenomenal season on the international stage and could yet strike again with PANTHALASSA. The LORD KANALOA 5YO is yet to reach the dizzy heights of stablemates LOVES ONLY YOU, MARCHE LORRAINE or CONTRAIL, but he’s won three of his four starts since October, including most recently in the G2 Nakayama Kinen over 1,800m, and could yet take another step forward.

Old favourite LORD GLITTERS looks to have given his best already during this carnival but could sneak into the frame with one of those late withering runs.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. SCHNELL MEISTER, 8. LORD NORTH, 9. MOHAAFETH, 11. PANTHALASSA & 7. LORD GLITTERS

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 12. SCHNELL MEISTER, 8. LORD NORTH & 9. MOHAAFETH
S1-8: Multiple – 1. AUTHORITY, 14. YIBIR & 4. GLORY VASE
S1-9: Multiple – 7. LIFE IS GOOD, 5. HOT ROD CHARLIE & 3. COUNTRY GRAMMER

 

 

S1-8 Dubai Sheema Classic

British-based trainers have dominated the 2,410m G1 Dubai Sheema Classic recently, winning the last five renewals, but a strong contingent from Japan could see that change this year. With major wins at the Breeders’ Cup, Hong Kong International Races and The Saudi Cup over the past few months, the Japanese have proven to be incredibly strong.

AUTHORITY landed the G3 Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m in King Abdulaziz last month on his first start since finishing second to the top-class CONTRAIL in the G1 Japan Cup over 2,400m in November. The step back up to 2,410m will suit and Christophe Lemaire retains the ride. The French-born jockey has been on board for three of AUTHORITY’s six career wins and his only defeat on the son of ORFEVRE was in the Japan Cup.

Godolphin have a fine record at the Dubai World Cup Day and Charlie Appleby won this race in 2018 and 2019. He relies on G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner YIBIR who has now won his last three races, all over around 2,400m distance. The son of DUBAWI was beaten a few times early on last season but has looked a different horse since being gelded, although he is yet to win after a break.

Going back to the Japanese and two-time 2,400m G1 Hong Kong Vase winner GLORY VASE is an interesting contender here with Christophe Soumillon teaming up with him for the first time. Despite being the oldest in the field at the age of seven, the son of DEEP IMPACT is a threat to all and rarely runs a bad race.

In the aforementioned Japan Cup back in November, SHAHRYAR finished third behind CONTRAIL and AUTHORITY. That was a fine effort from Hideaki Fujiwara’s horse who won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) last May and will be making just his seventh career start here so he still has room for improvement.

There are plenty of others in with chances but at massive likely odds KASPAR is an interesting contender. Formerly trained in Germany, he is now based in Saudi Arabia where he was an eye-catching second to AUTHORITY in the Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m after meeting trouble in running. Based on his German form, the step back up to 2,410m will suit and he could pick up some prize money with jockey Ricardo Ferreira keeping the ride.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. AUTHORITY, 14. YIBIR, 4. GLORY VASE, 12. SHAHRYAR & 6. KASPAR

 

 

S1-9 Dubai World Cup

While it may no longer be the world’s richest race, the Dubai World Cup is still a huge occasion, and this looks a top-class renewal with form from the best middle distance dirt contests around the world.

LIFE IS GOOD was seen at his devastating best in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes over 1,800m at Gulfstream Park in January, where he galloped his rivals into submission from the front. What was so impressive about that performance was the manner in which he beat the 2,000m Breeders’ Cup Classic winner KNICKS GO, a horse that had easily got the better of HOT ROD CHARLIE at Del Mar in November. LIFE IS GOOD has drawn the perfect inside stall to employ the same front-running tactics we saw in Florida and Todd Pletcher’s horse looks tough to oppose. There are other front runners in this field and that could make for a blistering gallop.

HOT ROD CHARLIE made all the running to beat inferior rivals over this course and distance in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m at the beginning of last month. That track experience is likely to stand him in good stead and he should come on for the run, but his US form looks second best. Flavien Prat takes the ride.

Prat finished runner-up on COUNTRY GRAMMER in the G1 Saudi Cup over 1,800m, with that horse just being run down towards the finish by a fast-finishing rival. Bob Baffert’s runner is likely to get a good trail into this race and should be poised to make his challenge off the home turn. His form doesn’t look good enough in this company, but after only nine career starts, there may still be progression to come from this son of TONALIST, especially over a trip he has tried only twice. Frankie Dettori replaces Prat in the saddle.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON looked to be travelling best when turning into the straight in the Saudi Cup, but he couldn’t fight off COUNTRY GRAMMER in the closing stages, eventually finishing third. This step up in trip to 2,000m might test his stamina, especially with such a strong pace likely and he could struggle to turn that form around.

One horse that will be running on from off the pace is Saudi Cup fifth AERO TREM, who should also appreciate this step up in trip.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. LIFE IS GOOD, 5. HOT ROD CHARLIE, 3. COUNTRY GRAMMER, 9. MIDNIGHT BOURBON & 1. AERO TREM

 

 

 

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