Expert - Brett Davis

Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts.

Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Brett Davis)

S1-1     Chairman's Quality

 

ZEYREK is a former French stayer that’s well and truly settled now in to the Australian way of racing. Trained by the powerful Hawkes stable - Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes, and ridden by super star William Pike are strong reasons to include him in calculations. He has plenty of residual fitness from his previous campaign and appears ready to lift to another level of intensity.

 

CHALK STREAM was a more than capable galloper in England before his transfer to Australia and the Chris Waller stable. He’s still building in to his first Australian campaign but the signs are positive judged on his efforts to this point. He’ll do no work in the run from the inside barrier with Tommy Berry taking the reigns and by all report he’s bigger and stronger following his last run. He has the potential to be a Melbourne Cup horse in time and if that’s the case he must run well today.

 

GREAT HOUSE was an honest third in the G3 2,000m Sky High Stakes behind STOCKMAN and is far better placed over 2,600m. He’s an out and out stayer still very much on the upward spiral and the barrier draw two, I believe is a huge advantage. Hugh Bowman only has to get clear turning for home and he’s going to be in the finish. The track conditions are a slight concern particularly if it rains heavily on the day.

 

FUTURE SCORE has continued building in to his current campaign and is on the verge of peaking for this race. His efforts in both the Listed Roy Higgins Quality and G2 Adelaide Cup were both courageous and resilient. On both occasions he was beaten by horses on the rise and should make his presence felt despite the wide draw.

 

SHE’S IDEEL has run some outstanding races in her thirty start career and is a genuine lover of wet tracks. Her recent second placing behind champion mare VERRY ELLEEGANT in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes was both admirable and game. She’s exceptionally well placed at the weights of her current handicap rating and if she runs the trip I’d be wanting want her on my side.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ZEYREK, 12. CHALK STREAM, 2. GREAT HOUSE, 10. FUTURE SCORE & 4. SHE’S IDEEL

 

S1-2     Country Championships Final

 

FAR TOO EASY won the feature race at Grafton in February with a fast finishing dash from near last to score. He’s a very progressive 3YO having won five of his eight starts and must be highly respected. He adores cushion in the track which is going to be on offer and has champion jockey James McDonald aboard. If the breaks go his way from the inside draw he’s likely the hardest horse to beat.

 

CAVALIER CHARLES was the winner of the traditional lead up to the Country Championships Final. There are six last start winners in the event and it won’t be easy finding the winner but good dividends are almost guaranteed. He’s yet to run a bad race, is the equal highest rated and can handle wet conditions, which are all reason to suggest he can win.

 

TESTATOR SILENS has only been defeated on one occasion from six career starts and is another with a fabulous chance. He can race handy to the speed and kick hard to the line which is how he won recently at Nowra in track record time. The heavy track conditions are to his advantage as he thrives on rain affect tracks and the latest reports are he’s expected to firm in the betting.

 

EDIT is a former Kiwi who’s settled well in to Australian lifestyle. His first up run this year was a fast finishing second after a five month break at Scone and there’s definitely better to come. It’s a race we’re luck is going to play its part and if he gets the breaks he’ll be in the finish.

 

TO THE NINES had excuses last start at Nowra and could have easily won with more galloping room in the straight. He’s got a bit to find on ratings at set weights but shouldn’t be underestimated from a favourable barrier draw. He’ll be sent out at big odds again but as he proved last start he’s dangerous to overlook in wet conditions.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. FAR TOO EASY, 1. CAVALIER CHARLES, 4. TESTATOR SILENS, 6. EDIT & 11. TO THE NINES

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 2. FAR TOO EASY
Selections – 1. CAVALIER CHARLES, 4. TESTATOR SILENS, 6. EDIT & 11. TO THE NINES
S1-3:   
Banker – 12. FIREBURN
Selections – 3. LET’SROLLTHEDICE, 13. SHE’S EXTREME, 1. DAUMIER & 7. MAGIC

 

S1-3     ATC Sires' Produce Stakes

 

FIREBURN was the dominant and exciting winner of the recent G1 Golden Slipper. She settled midway in the field before unleashing an overwhelming turn of speed from the 300m to bolt away and win as she liked. All reports suggest she’s has pulled up well and the thought of stepping up to 1,400m has not been questioned. She appears an out and out star, particularly under wet tracks, and a repeat performance has her winning.

 

LET’SROLLTHEDICE was a commanding winner on debut at Bendigo before capturing the G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes at Flemington at just his second race start. Former Hong Kong jockey Damian Lane has committed his services from day one and the pair arrive in Sydney undefeated. He appears adaptable to various track conditions and should find plenty of fight when the race is there to be won.

 

SHE’S EXTREME didn’t experience the greatest amount of luck in the recent G1 Golden Slipper and is worthy of forgiveness. Her form prior was excellent and she was touted as a genuine winning chance in the World’s richest 2YO race. The rise to 1,400m is positive from the outside draw and it’s possible jockey Tommy Berry pushes forward in an effort to travel closer to the lead. If that’s the case and she gets away with cheep sectionals her chances are greatly enhanced.

 

DAUMIER is raced by Godolphin and the pick of their 2YO crop. His efforts in two Blue Diamond Preludes over the 1,000m and 1,100m respectively suggested he’d be better over ground. That was justified when he won the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes over 1,200m before an honest fourth in the G1 Golden Slipper last start. He’s very much imbedded in the top echelon of his generation and with a preferred firm track shall have his chance.

 

MAGIC has raced home hard in his two runs to date and the son of SNITZEL shall appreciate the rise in distance to 1,400m. He’s already been competitive with horses that have run well at the highest level and plenty of interest is brewing. He’ll race in the colours made famous by CHAUTAUQUA and is expected to be competitive.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. FIREBURN, 3. LET’SROLLTHEDICE, 13. SHE’S EXTREME, 1. DAUMIER & 7. MAGIC

 

S1-4     Australian Derby

 

HITOTSU is a 3YO son of Japanese champion MAURICE who famously won three G1 races in Hong Kong from as many starts. The winner of the G1 Victoria Derby over 2,500m in November last year returned to racing with a fabulous win in the G1 Australian Guineas just a few weeks ago. He met ANAMOE in the G1 Caulfield Guineas over 1,600m last year but wasn’t up to the task beaten 2.85 lengths. A more physically mature and imposing stayer has emerged since and he is the standout selection in this field.

 

REGAL LION is the mount of James McDonald and he’s made a rapid rise in the ratings following a third placing in the G1 NZ Derby. He’s shortly after travelled to Australia and made an immediate impact at Newcastle on 28th March in the G2 Tulloch Stakes finishing second behind CHARACTER. The distance and class factors now line up well and if he backs up nicely he’s a real contender.

 

CHARACTER is hitting his straps at the right time and his win in the G2 Tulloch Stakes at Newcastle was full of praise. It’s a huge test for all runners to beat the favourite HITOTSU but this fellow is given some chance of being there when it really counts. He’s had a solid preparation leading in to this biggest race of his life and if he finds under pressure over 2,400m he’ll be in the finishing frame.

 

ALEGRON has the talent and engine to compete at the highest level which was evident in last year’s G1 Victoria Derby over 2,500m. He was runner up on that occasion to HITOTSU and the margin wasn’t great after he covered extra ground in the run. He hasn’t returned with the same depth of form this campaign so he’ll need to turn things around. The draw however is ideal and the journey no problem, so he’ll be given his opportunity but has improvement to find.

 

CAN'T GO WONG looks a smart colt following his fast finishing second in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes over 2,040m at Moonee Valley. Leading trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace had no hesitation shipping him straight to Sydney following the win and he’ll line up from an excellent barrier in gate six. Super star jockey Jamie Kah has been booked for the mount and she is seemingly winning on almost every horse she rides.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. HITOTSU, 5. REGAL LION, 8. CHARACTER, 2. ALEGRON & 9. CAN'T GO WONG

 

S1-5     T J Smith Stakes

 

EDUARDO won the recent G2 Challenge Stakes over 1,000m with a faultless front running display. He’s returned in fantastic form this preparation and has an exceptional record on very wet tracks. The 1,200m can test his endurance when the surface is firm and favour those with an explosive turn of acceleration. Last year for example he was overhauled through the final 200m by NATURE STRIP when the track was rated a soft 6. But the track promises to be far heavier today.

 

NATURE STRIP is a long time champion sprinter with seven G1 victories to his name and the 2020/2021 Australian horse of the year title. He’s yet to win this campaign but was gallant in the 1,000m G1 Black Caviar Lightning before the combination of a heavy track and sluggish beginning made his task unachievable in the G2 Challenge Stakes over 1,000m. Some experts are suggesting he hasn’t returned as good this time around but I’d be weary of over analysing him too closely.

 

MASKED CRUSADER was in fantastic form this time last year finishing second behind NATURE STRIP in this event. His two runs back this time around in the G1 Black Caviar Lightning and G1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington have both been below his best. The firmer tracks in Melbourne could well be partially responsible for those average results and I wouldn’t underestimate him returning back to Sydney.

 

SHELBY SIXTYSIX has become one of the great racing stories over the last couple of months rising from mediocre grade wins to the pinnacle of G1. The key to this meteoric rise is the slush and mud of recent heavy tracks in Sydney following unprecedented storms. The conditions are again expected to be in the heavy range and Tommy Berry shall be jumping back aboard for a crack at another win.

 

ROCH ’N’ HORSE caused a mass boil over by winning the G1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington when starting 100/1. The former Kiwi was placed in the G1 Telegraph Stakes in her home land prior but was completely dismissed by the Australian public. She’ll handle the Sydney direction of racing and any track conditions on offer, but can she back it up at weight for age.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. EDUARDO, 1. NATURE STRIP, 3. MASKE D CRUSADER, 6. SHELBY SIXTYSIX & 8. ROCH ’N’ HORSE

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 2. EDUARDO
Selections – 1. NATURE STRIP, 3. MASKED CRUSADER, 6. SHELBY SIXTYSIX & 8. ROCH ’N’ HORSE
S1-6:   
Banker – 20. CONVERGE
Selections – 16. FORBIDDEN LOVE, 2. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK, 3. PRIVATE EYE & 1. CASCADIAN

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. EDUARDO, 1. NATURE STRIP & 3. MASKED CRUSADER
S1-6: Multiple – 20. CONVERGE, 16. FORBIDDEN LOVE & 2. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK
S1-7: Multiple – 2. SNEAKY FIVE, 4. HELLFEST & 10. A VERY FINE RED

 

S1-6     Doncaster Mile

 

CONVERGE is trained by the formidable combination of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and has the benefit of the home ground advantage. The 3YO defeated ANAMOE in the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1,600m two runs back before that result was reversed when upping to 2,000m at their next start in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He’s bred to handle a genuine hard contest being by FRANKEL and I have no question marks alongside his name. He’s exceptionally well handicapped and with a touch of luck goes close.

 

FORBIDDEN LOVE is extremely well handicapped following her third G1 victory over 1,500m in the George Ryder Stakes. She adores rain affected tracks with six of her eight wins coming under those conditions and is a four time winner at Royal Randwick. With her current rating at 115 she’ll line up as one of the major players in this 3 Million AUD highlight and is hard to oppose.

 

I’M THUNDERSTRUCK is a genuine weight for age galloper who’s peaking at the right time for this fascinating contest. He was targeted at the recent G1 All-Star Mile and was right back near his best when finishing second to Australia’s newest super star ZAAKI. It’s his debut at Royal Randwick and if he gets the strong tempo expected, and copes well with the occasion, he’s in the finish.

 

PRIVATE EYE found the line like a star in the recent G1 George Ryder Stakes and must be considered. His record is outstanding over the course and distance and he’s well weight considering he won the G1 Epsom Handicap in October last year. Track conditions are not an issue and he’s ready to once again win but the barrier is his nemesis.

 

CASCADIAN won last year’s edition of the G1 Doncaster Mile carrying 117lbs with Jamie Kah aboard. The handicappers this year have installed him with an additional 6lbs following a recent fifth placing in the All-Star Mile at Flemington. This year he’s taken a different path towards this feature event but he arrives racing as good as he was last year.

 

SELECTIONS: 20. CONVERGE, 16. FORBIDDEN LOVE, 2. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK, 3. PRIVATE EYE & 1. CASCADIAN

 

S1-7     P J Bell Stakes

 

SNEAKY FIVE is a lightly raced daughter of FASTNET ROCK that possesses a very big weapon. Her turn of foot and explosive acceleration is exciting to watch and allowed her to remain undefeated after three starts. She was recently transferred to Sydney in preparation for this precise race and has trialled particularly well. She’s untried on heavy track but coped with it ok in the trial and I anticipate she’ll be hard to beat.

 

HELLFEST is also a daughter of FASTNET ROCK and with three wins from four starts must be entertained. Her style is to race handy to the speed which is what she did when winning the recent G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes at Moonee Valley. She’s trialled on two occasions in Sydney under the guidance of Kerrin McEvoy and is primed and ready to roll.

 

A VERY FINE RED looked smart finishing third in the Listed Fireball Stakes at Randwick first up but was definitely in need of the run. She’ll strip better for that hit out and has been seen trialling comfortably at Warwick Farm. She has plenty of untapped ability and is highly touted going forward as a potentially G1 winner.

 

HERESY is another runner raced by the powerful Godolphin stable and her two runs back from a spell read better than they appear on paper. She’s also trotted up in a subsequent trial at Rosehill over 900m and pulled up a treat. She was tested over the longer journey’s last campaign but a return to the shorter sprints looks a positive change.

 

MALLORY has had plenty of racing for just the one win but most of those efforts have been at the highest of levels. She was fair first up in Melbourne but has picked up sharply at her next couple with minor placings at Randwick and Rosehill. She’s a genuine type who’ll give her all with her condition peaking at the right time.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. SNEAKY FIVE, 4. HELLFEST, 10. A VERY FINE RED, 5. HERESY & 3. MALLORY

 

 

 

 

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