Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Osaka Hai (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S2-1 Osaka Hai

While many of the top runners at middle distance division in Japan competed at Dubai on previous weekend, EFFORIA, Japanese Horse of the Year in 2021, stays at home and makes seasonal debut in 2,000m G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 3rd April. EFFORIA won four races from five starts in 2021, including three G1 races, Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), Tenno Sho Autumn, and Arima Kinen, for Carrot Club. He was 2 for 2 when he was 2YO and experienced only defeat in G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo last May, when he was beaten nose by SHAHRYAR, who won G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on 26th March.

EFFORIA had easy time for ten weeks at Tenei Branch of Northern Farm after Arima Kinen on 26th December and returned to Yuichi Shikato’s barn in Miho Training Centre on 4th March. He was breezed on 24th March for 1,200m, with Takeshi Yokoyama, regular rider for EFFORIA, on the iron, and clocked 83.1 seconds. He covered the final 200m for 11.6 seconds and it is sharp enough to prove the 4YO colt by EPIPHANEIA is in top form. EFFORIA is my first pick..

The strongest opponent for EFFORIA and the most interesting runner in Osaka Hai is JACK D’OR, rising star in Japan. He is unbeaten in five starts since last September and the most impressive performance from the 4YO colt by MAURICE was displayed in G2 Kinko Sho at Chukyo on 13th March. JACK D’OR made all the 2,000m events, establishing new track record, 1 minutes 57.2 seconds, which is 1.1 seconds faster than the previous record. JACK D’OR clocked 59.3 seconds at the midpoint and it means the he covered the final 1,000m for 57.9 seconds. It is a jaw-dropping performance and his rapid growth reminds us his sire, MAURICE, who was an ordinary runner from 2YO to 3YO, while MAURICE won six G1s from 4YO to 5YO, including G1 Hong Kong Mile and G1 Hong Kong Cup. JACK D’OR is my second pick.

LEI PAPALE, who tries to achieve back-to-back win of Osaka Hai, is my third choice. The 5YO mare by DEEP IMPACT lost her form after Osaka Hai in 2021 and has not won a race in five starts since then. However, she performed better in G2 Kinko Sho, finishing second to JACK D’OR, and I have a feeling that she is now bouncing back. And if the ground at Hanshin on Sunday becomes soft, I believe her chance increases.

Another 5YO mare in the field, who should be respected, is WIN MARILYN, as she won two G2 Stakes beating top class colts and horses in 2021. She was disappointing 16th in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin last November, though, she had an elbow tumor and it harmed her training for Queen Elizabeth II Cup. I am sure we can forget this poor performance. While this is the first start for WIN MARILYN since then, she is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run her race.

Noriyuki Hori, who trains HISHI IGUAZU, originally planned to send the second finisher of Hong Kong Cup back to Sha Tin for G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup over 2,000m on 24th April. The plan was changed and switched the target to Osaka Hai, which is three weeks earlier than Queen Elizabeth II Cup. I am worried Hori might be pressed for time to gain 100% fit of HISHI IGUAZU by now.

SELECTIONS: 6. EFFORIA, 4. JACK D'OR, 14. LEI PAPALE, 7. WIN MARILYN & 10. HISHI IGUAZU

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