 Expert - Brett Davis | |
|---|---|
| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
PARIS DIOR has won only a maiden to this point but is touted as a super talent. James McDonald has allocated plenty of his time in partnering the daughter of PIERRO and takes the ride race-day from an excellent draw in barrier three. She’s recently won two trials at Randwick by big margins over the 1,000m and the markets have her as the undeniable tip.
SHEEZA BELTER is well named and ready to start her career under the guidance of Peter and Paul Snowden in Sydney. The former Perth filly won the Listed Magic Millions WA 2YO Classic recently and has only tasted defeat on one occasion. She’ll have to adapt to the clockwise direction of racing and softer track conditions but she’s worthy of respect.
OJAI has plenty to learn about racing but possesses a big engine and must be considered. She’s raw and green and needs more racing experience to get comfortable in a field but is a genuine talent going forward. Her performance in the G1 Golden Slipper was excellent, all considered, and she’s impossible to dismiss.
NORTH STAR LASS is difficult to assess with just the one win to analyse but her trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are astute and wouldn’t be running her just for fun. I like a couple of the horses she defeated at Warwick Farm which gives me some confidence to include her in the chances. We are going to learn a lot more about her today but I’m suggesting she can run well.
WILLINGA BEAST is an exceptionally well bred filly and following a dominant maiden win at Canterbury Park is now chasing coveted black type. The wide barrier isn’t going to help her task but she does possess plenty of natural speed and should roll forward. If she handles the initial speed expected she’ll run a big race and be somewhere in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 3. PARIS DIOR, 2. SHEEZA BELTER, 4. OJAI, 13. NORTH STAR LASS & 14. WILLINGA BEAST
S1-2 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
PAULELE was brilliant through the final 200m in last week’s G1 T J Smith Stakes chasing home the best sprinters in the country in NATURE STRIP and EDUARDO, finished third. Returning to a contest against his own age and over the same course and distance is highly beneficial and from barrier three he can be well positioned. Kerrin McEvoy takes over the ride from Jamie Kah and he should be the toughest to beat.
BACCHANALIA chased home MAZU first up in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes and shall benefit plenty from that run. He’s got class to find against most opposition at this point but is highly progressive and undefeated second up. He adores the cushion in the track and has a powerful finish so expect a big effort from him.
IN THE CONGO is the equal highest rated runner in the event and must be considered a winning chance. He’s a front running machine that has the ability to break the hearts of those chasing with power and strength. He’s already registered defeats of both ANAMOE and PAULELE and if given his way on the lead shall make the opposition pay.
MAZU is a high class youngster and son of the almighty Japanese champion MAURICE. With three wins on the bounce and five in total from just nine starts his profile is gaining justified momentum. He is likely to start in the betting and the cut out the ground won’t be of concern as he ploughed through it recently like a star.
SELECTIONS: 2. PAULELE, 9. BACCHANALIA, 1. IN THE CONGO & 6. MAZU
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. PAULELE
Selections – 9. BACCHANALIA, 1. IN THE CONGO & 6. MAZU
S1-3:
Banker – 4. HONEYCREEPER
Selections – 2. GYPSY GODDESS, 1. HINGED, 9. PINK IVORY & 3. BISCAYNE BAY
S1-3 Australian Oaks
HONEYCREEPER hasn’t run a bad race in her short career and the blinkers worked wonders in her last start performance. She’s been up and going for a while and done some travelling but is thriving on the workload and continuity of racing. She had a quiet trial following her return from Listed Tasmanian Oaks at Launceston, before subsequently destroying the field in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes, which is a renowned lead up event. Her pedigree is suited to the rise in journey and I rate her a terrific chance of winning.
GYPSY GODDESS is a daughter of TARZINO and the Brisbane filly has taken racing up north by storm, toying with the opposition she’s faced. Ridden with patience before powering home in the straight is her act and that’s exactly what she produced, even in defeat, in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes. Her sectionals on that occasion were brilliant and she has the wow factor to be a legitimate winning chance.
HINGED has already established an outstanding race record winning six races including the G1 Surround Stakes. She has the class, can handle all types of track conditions and is tactically versatile giving her an edge on most opponents. She’s a definite query at running a strong 2,400m which is her underlining challenge but overall class and experience should hold her in good stead.
PINK IVORY wasn’t disgraced in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and found the line well after looking for galloping room at the top of the straight. James McDonald now jumps aboard as they owner G Harvey chases bold black type lettering over her name. The extra journey is likely to suit the pedigree and a career best is required to win but she’s a definite chance.
BISCAYNE BAY shouldn’t be underestimated following an eight position in the recent G2 Kewney Stakes. She’s a genuine stayer who finished third in G1 VRC Oaks over 2,500m last campaign and enjoys the wet tracks. She has drawn an excellent barrier and the handicappers rate her third best behind HINGED and GYPSY GODDESS.
SELECTIONS: 4. HONEYCREEPER, 2. GYPSY GODDESS, 1. HINGED, 9. PINK IVORY & 3. BISCAYNE BAY
S1-4 Sydney Cup
DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR has only suffered defeated once in his last six starts and is a super stayer on the rise. His father SWEET ORANGE won the 2012 Hong Kong Classic Mile at Shatin before starting favourite in the Hong Kong Derby that year but ultimately finished third. He’s blessed with a strong turn of acceleration which was on display winning the recent G2 Adelaide Cup over 3,200m and should be entertained with a level of confidence.
STOCKMAN chased gamely in defeat behind the star mare DUAIS in the G1 H E Tancred Stakes at Newcastle last outing and is now ready to attack the 3,200m. His pedigree is ideal for a race of this journey and he’s now peaking at a career high rating. He’s thrives in heavy track conditions as his record suggests and with a huge drop in weight from his last start is expected to run well.
CRYSTAL PEGASUS has made his way up through the grades superbly during the last four months and is now eyeing off a fifth consecutive win. He gives the impression the 3,200m shall be within his range and with Jamie Kah taking the ride he’ll be popular in betting. It’s a big step up in class and the prevailing heavy track conditions maybe a query but he’s exceptionally well placed off the light weight.
SUREFIRE is former English galloper that’s just begun his Australian career under the care of champion trainer Chris Waller. He’s acclimatised well which was evident in his debut win when he finished hard to be an overwhelming force. He backed that up with a game second in the G3 Queens Cup over 2,400m and I’d be confident in saying better results are assured to follow.
NO COMPROMISE was the winner of the recent G3 Queens Cup and in the process defeated many of today’s rivals. The former New Zealand galloper has continued to furnish since arriving to Australia and should be given credit for a tough on pace win last start. Trainer Chris Waller is well represented with plenty of quality stock and this fellow has never been more consistent and shall appreciate the conditions.
SELECTIONS: 2. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR, 4. STOCKMAN, 5. CRYSTAL PEGASUS, 11. SUREFIRE & 8. NO COMPROMISE
S1-5 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
ANAMOE is arguably the most exciting horse racing in Australia at the moment. He’s a multiple G1 winner that’s already secured a career as a highly viable stallion once his racing is complete. There are minimal weaknesses in his armour and his win in the recent G1 Rosehill Guineas was a genuine display of his incredible talent. An elevated temperature over the last week has brought about some warranted discussion surrounding his fitness but he’s arrived on course so take him on at your peril.
DUAIS has always been a high quality galloper but her recent wins in the G1 Australian Cup and G1 H E Tancred Stakes respectively have elevated her status to a new level. Her effort in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes prior was also incredibly brave, on a heavy track, after being held up for a run at the 200m. Questions are being raised about her capabilities in the aforementioned heavy conditions, with her record favouring dry, but at the top of her game she must be treated with utter respect.
ZAAKI has taken Australia by storm since arriving from England this time last year. With three G1 victories now accumulated the 7YO has become the talk of Australian racing following his dazzling win in the G1 All-Star Mile. He arrives in Sydney with form at the track and the distance but the heavy surface conditions are a discussion point. However, no doubts about his level of brilliance and lengthy stride have arisen therefore his presence is be highly acknowledged.
VERRY ELLEEGANT is the Queen of Australian Racing and the highest rated galloper amongst this star studded line up. She tasted a rare defeat last start when stepping up to 2,000m but she’ll be ready to bounce back. She’s chasing a twelfth G1 victory following her brilliant win in the G1 Melbourne Cup last year and by all reports arrives fit and well. Her second in this race the previous two years behind ADDEYBB shall be forgotten if she’s brings her a game.
MONTEFILIA returned to racing as a 4YO filly with a competitive seventh in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. She then came out and blew away VERRY ELLEEGANT, Australia’s Horse Of The Year in the G1 Ranvet Stakes over this distance. It’s confirmed following that performance that she’s feeling exceptionally well and her course, distance and heavy track records are unquestionable. The depth of today’s contest is the only challenging hurdle she must overcome to win.
SELECTIONS: 9. ANAMOE, 7. DUAIS, 2. ZAAKI, 6. VERRY ELLEEGANT & 8. MONTEFILIA
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 9. ANAMOE
Selections – 7. DUAIS, 2. ZAAKI, 6. VERRY ELLEEGANT & 8. MONTEFILIA
S1-6:
Banker – 1. COLETTE
Selections – 2. LIGHTHOUSE, 14. YONCE, 11. MIRRA VISION & 9. ANNAVISTO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. ANAMOE, 7. DUAIS & 2. ZAAKI
S1-6: Multiple – 1. COLETTE, 2. LIGHTHOUSE & 14. YONCE
S1-7: Multiple – 8. EMANATE, 5. WANDABAA & 4. BELLUCI BABE
S1-6 Queen of the Turf Stakes
COLETTE has been superbly prepared for this precise race and chases her third G1 victory in the process. Her lead up races at G2 and G1 respectively have been terrific and she’s the measuring stick amongst this quality field. She’s expected to start favourite taking on her own sex and if the rain continues to fall she’ll be almost unbeatable.
LIGHTHOUSE ran boldly in the G1 Doncaster Mile last weekend and shall appreciated the return to a race against her gender. It’s been an outstanding campaign this time around with five wins, three seconds from just nine starts and she’s impossible to leave out. She’ll make her own luck up on speed and the only reason she won’t be there fighting for the win is if she’s had enough.
YONCE is undefeated from five starts in Melbourne and is one of the most intriguing and exciting runners on the day. She’ll drop back from 2,000m to 1,600m which looks a prudent decision considering the hefty rise in class. A change of race direction, weight for age scale and heavy track conditions are all aspects of the event she must conquer if she is to remain unbeaten.
MIRRA VISION was game behind LIGHTHOUSE in the G1 Coolmore Classic and on that effort alone can be considered. She appeared to be in the worst part of the track in the G2 Emancipation Stakes at her latest and I’m giving her the benefit of the doubt. She’s undefeated over this course and distance and if the track begins to dry out I’ll be elevating her prospects.
ANNAVISTO was superb winning a G3 at Flemington over 1,400m following a nineteen week break and is touted as a serious contender. She’s stepping in to uncharted waters today at G1 level but her recent defeat rated highly in the G2 Emancipation Stakes where she over raced. It’s her first trip to Randwick which won’t be a problem and she’ll create plenty of interest.
SELECTIONS: 1. COLETTE, 2. LIGHTHOUSE, 14. YONCE, 11. MIRRA VISION & 9. ANNAVISTO
S1-7 Sapphire Stakes
EMANATE looked superb winning the G3 Birthday Card Stakes at Rosehill and shall be hard to stop if she produces that level of form again. Her race sectionals were outstanding that afternoon and she’s clearly returned a better horse this time around. This is another step up for the talented daughter of LONHRO but I’m tipping her at each way odds to win once again.
WANDABAA has a terrific overall record finishing in the top two on sixteen occasions and today receives plenty of ticks. Her record at the course and distance plus heavy conditions is excellent and with Damien Oliver aboard your going to get a great run for your money. The mare races can be tricky so no standout selection is recognised but I like the fact she drops back in distance.
BELLUCI BABE shall probably start favourite following her brave effort against the big guns in the G1 T J Smith Stakes. She’s been up a while and is coping well with the work load so to dismiss her against her own gender is dangerous. She can handle all track conditions but would prefer if it improved to a firm side of heavy.
BELLA NIPOTINA had a decent break from racing after the Melbourne spring and arrives on the fresh side for her third run back this campaign. She’s the highest rated amongst the field so the set weights scale is in her favour but her form in Sydney has only been moderate. I won’t be potting her regarding the run in the G1 The Galaxy but I’m sitting on the fence until she’s seen in the parade.
FOUR MOVES AHEAD is twice a G2 winner but those wins were achieved some time back. She was a drifter in the betting when seventh in the G1 Surround Stakes recently but the effort was still honourable. She’s not quite where connections would have hoped going in to this but she could certainly lift and feature.
SELECTIONS: 8. EMANATE, 5. WANDABAA, 4. BELLUCI BABE, 2. BELLA NIPOTINA & 1. FOUR MOVES AHEAD
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
