Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 4yo and up 1 win

This is the allowance for one time winning 4YO and upper over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama. Current meeting at Nakayama started on 26th February and it is the tendency that runners who track leaders and front runners are enjoying better result than closers in races over this distance. I believe I should select horses who have speed to take command.

My favourite is SLAP SHOT, trained by Masahiro Otake. He was gelded after the season of 2021 and returned at racecourse on 21st March, when he finished third in the allowance race for one time winners at the same course and distance as this race. It was the first start for him since October 2021 and I judged he was only 80% fit. He has been trained much better at Miho Training Centre since the last start and I am pretty sure he is now 100% fit. He is the only speed horse in this field and it is very likely that he can control the race at front. I am confident to select him as my first choice.

The most consistent runner at this class in this field is ALMA SEKHMET, who finished within the first four in last three starts. The 4YO filly by PRECISE END finished fourth in the allowance at the same course and distance as this race on 15th January and I regard this performance highly, as the winner won the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 13th February and the second finisher won the allowance race at this class on 10th April. ALMA SEKHMET is my second choice.

DUAL CAREER, who finished third in the allowance race at the same course and distance as this race last December, is my third choice. He completed the race for 1 minute and 11.4 seconds, which is faster than standard. And he has enough speed to track SLAP SHOT, likely front runner. Although this is the first start of 2022 for this 6YO horse by WAR FRONT, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race.

ICE MAN, 4YO colt by SWEPT OVERBOARD, is my fourth choice. He finished third in the allowance race at the same course and distance as this race on 27th March, when he was boxed in on the rail at 200m out. He switched to outside and then quickened to finished third. If he has a smooth run on Sunday, he should have a good chance to finish within the first four.

Although FAMOUS DANDY ran poorly in the last two starts, he sidelined for 13 months from November 2020 to December 2021 and it took time to regain fitness. He has been trained much better at Miho Training Centre since the last start and I believe his condition is certainly improving. FAMOUS DANDY is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 16. SLAP SHOT, 8. ALMA SEKHMET, 4. DUAL CAREER, 14. ICE MAN & 9. FAMOUS DANDY

S1-2 4yo and up 1 win

As the races over 1,200m on dirt, runners who track leaders and front runners are enjoying better result than closers in the races over 1,800m on dirt during current meetings at Nakayama, which started on 26th February.

My favourite is I AM ICHIRYU, trained by Masashi Okuhira at Miho Training Centre, who finished second in the last two starts at this class, both of which are the races over 1,800m on dirt. In the allowance race on 6th March, wide draw cost him and the 5YO horse by RULERSHIP was beaten by neck. And in the allowance race on 26th March, the slowly-run race helped the winner and he was still able to finish second, covering final 600m for 37.7 seconds, which is the quickest in 11 runners. I am sure he has an ability to graduate this class.

SAY HELLO TO YOU is my second choice. He had wind surgery at the end of last season and returned at racecourse on 26th March, when the 4YO colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA finished fourth in the allowance race at the same course and distance as this race. I judge it was not a bad performance, as it was the first start for him since last August and it was obvious that he needed the race. He has been trained much better at Miho Training Centre since the last start and I am sure his condition is improving.

While BULLBEAR KAIRI is not consistent, the 5YO horse by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER is good enough to run well at this class on his day. He tracked the leader from second position and ran tenaciously at homestretch to finish second in the allowance race at same distance and course as this race on 20th March. If he re-produces this form on Sunday, I believe he has a good chance to finish in the first three. And I am impressed with his morning track work on Wednesday at Miho Training Centre.

SPARK IN THE EYE, who finished within the first four in the last two starts at this class, is my fourth choice. His performance in the last two starts proves the 5YO gelding by RULERSHIP is competitive against one time winners.

DAISHIN VIRGINIS was transferred from NAR to JRA, after the 4YO colt by PYRO won two races from two starts at Sonoda Racecourse, NAR track near Osaka, which is small and tight. Although he was well beaten in the allowance race at Tokyo on 6th February, which was his first start at JRA, the course at Tokyo, which is big and wide, did not suit him. I believe the track at Nakayama suits him better and he has been trained much better at Miho Training Centre since last start. DAISHINN VIRGINIS is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 8. I AM ICHIRYU, 9. SAY HELLO TO YOU, 1. BULLBEAR KAIRI, 2. SPARK IN THE EYE & 5. DAISHIN VIRGINIS

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 8. I AM ICHIRYU
Selections – 9. SAY HELLO TO YOU, 1. BULLBEAR KAIRI, 2. SPARK IN THE EYE & 5. DAISHIN VIRGINIS
S1-3:   
Banker – 8. DERMA KANNON
Selections – 9. SHONAN LAST BOSS, 12. MOUNTAIN MUSUME, 4. BRONZE RED & 7. RASTRILLO
 

S1-3 Sodegaura Tokubetsu

Sodegaura Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winning 4YO and upper over 1,200m on turf.

My favourite is DERMA KANNON, 4YO filly by SPIELBERG. She finished second in allowance race for two time winners at the same course and distance as this race last December, although she dwelt coming out of the stalls, and it proves she is competitive at this class. Although DERMA KANNON was beaten fifth in the allowance for two time winners at Nakayama on 16th January, she was boxed in at the top of homestretch. Even though she managed to finish within 0.2 seconds from the winner, I judge she was an unlucky loser. Christophe Lemaire is booked for her on Sunday and I believe DERMA KANNON should have a good chance to win this race.

When SHONAN LAST BOSS won the allowance for one time winners at Kokura on 16th January, the winning time, 1 minute and 8.0 seconds, was faster than the stakes race for two time winners at same distance on the same day, and it indicates that the colt by DAIWA MAJOR is fast enough to compete against two time winners. While he was well beaten in the stakes race for two time winners at Kokura on 12th February, he failed to break quickly and took wide trip all way through. He performed much better in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 27th March, in which he finished fourth, and I believe SHONAN LAST BOSS is capable to run well in Sodegaura Tokubetsu. SHONAN LAST BOSS is my second choice.

MOUNTAIN MUSUME has been running consistently at this class, finishing second in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 12th March and third in another allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 27th March. Moreover, she finished fourth in the Listed Lumiere Autumn Dash at Niigata last October. She should have every chance to finish within the first three in this race.

While BRONZE RED was beaten sixth in the allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 6th February, the colt by RED SPADA finished within 0.2 seconds from the winner. And Nakayama should suit him better than Chukyo. BRONZE RED is my fourth choice.

RASTRILLO was regarded highly by her connection when she was 2YO and finished fourth in Edelweiss Sho, domestic G3 at Monbetsu in October 2020 in fact. Although she disappointed the connection, running poorly through 2021, the 4YO filly by AGNES DIGITAL finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at the same course and distance as this race on 16th January which was her first start of 2022, and gave delight to the connection. I judge she has a chance to finish within the first five in this race.

SELECTIONS: 8. DERMA KANNON, 9. SHONAN LAST BOSS, 12. MOUNTAIN MUSUME, 4. BRONZE RED & 7. RASTRILLO

S1-4 Nojimazaki Tokubetsu

Nojimazaki Tokubetsu is the stakes race for two time winning 4YO and upper fillies and mares over 2,000m on turf. This is quality field, which includes several runners who should graduate this class before long.

My favourite is MI AMANTE, 5YO mare by KING KAMEHAMEHA. She has run at this class for four times since last July and finished within first four in all of them. She started at Nakayama for three times, won once and finished second once. While she was well beaten once at Nakayama, it was a G3 and competition was too tough for her. I judge Nakayama is favourable track for her. And it is encouraging that Christophe Lemaire is booked for her in this race.

AOI GOLD is another consistent runner at this class. The filly by GOLD SHIP graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 5th January. Since then, she started at this class for three times and finished within first three in all of them. I regard her performance at Nakayama on 13th March highly, as she dwelt coming out of stalls and still managed to finish second. While she prefers quick ground, I believe she is still capable to finish within first two on Sunday, when the ground could be slow side.

When AOI GOLD finished second at Nakayama on 26th February, the third finisher was HUMAN COMEDY. As the field of that race included male runners, I understand we should regard this form highly. HUMAN COMEDY finished within the first five in the last five starts at this class and the mare by HEART’S CRY is another runner who should graduate this class sooner or later. HUMAN COMEDY is my third choice.

ATOMICA finished third in the race for two time winners at Hanshin on 27th March and has proved she is still fit and sound although she is 7YO now. Her sire, RULERSHIP, winner of the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2012, enjoys an established reputation for his ability to produce long lasting performers. While she was beaten seventh at Nakayama on 13th March, she finished within 0.3 seconds from the winner and it was not a bad performance. ATOMICA is my fourth choice.

BLOOMSBURY finished fifth at Nakayama on 13th March, being ahead of ATOMICA. And she managed to finish third in the race for two time winners at Chukyo last October and I believe the 5YO mare by HARBINGER has an ability to finish within the first five here.

SELECTIONS: 1. MI AMANTE, 3. AOI GOLD, 8. HUMAN COMEDY, 2. ATOMICA & 5. BLOOMSBURY

S1-5 Keiyo Stakes

Keiyo Stakes is Listed Race over 1,200m on dirt.

My favourite is HAKODATE BUSHO, 4YO colt by MAURICE, who is rising rapidly through last few months. He won an allowance race for two time winners on 5th January and the allowance race for three time winners on 27th February, both of which are conducted at the same course and distance as Keiyo Stakes. He took 38.1 seconds for the final 600m in the allowance race for three time winners, which looks slower than standard, however, head wind was so strong at homestretch on the day at Nakayama and he did not weaken at closing stage of the race actually. Although this is the first time for him to run at this class, I reckon he is capable to win the Listed stakes now.

NONLICENSE, second finisher in Keiyo Stakes twelve months ago, is my second choice. Winner of Keiyo Stakes in 2021 is DANCING PRINCE, who won G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint at Saudi Arabia by five and three quarters of lengths in February 2022, and the form of Keiyo Stakes in 2021 must be regarded highly. And NONLICENSE won a 1,200m dirt race at Niigata last August, it is an evident that the 6YO mare by PYRO is a top class performer at dirt sprint division. Although it is a matter of concern that NONLICENSE has not run since last August, she is trained well at Ritto Training Centre and should be ready to run her race on Sunday.

CYCLOTRON was beaten eighth in the Open Handicap race at Hanshin last December and disappointed the punters who supported him as 5 to 2 favourite. I analyse the wide trip all way through far turn cost him. He finished second over 1,200m dirt at Hanshin last November and should run well in Keiyo Stakes if he re-produced the form of that race on Sunday. While this is the first start for him in 2022, he has been breezed twice a week at Ritto Training Centre since mid-February and I believe he is fit enough to produce his best form. CYCLOTRON is my third choice.

RECIPROCATE, who finished fourth in Keiyo Stakes in 2021, is my fourth choice. While the 6YO horse by DAIWA MAJOR was withdrawn from an Open Handicap at Chukyo on 26th March, due to carrying high temperature, he could resume full training within a couple of days and has been trained well since then. I believe he has a good chance to finish within the first four on Sunday.

MONDREISE won G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes in November 2020 and finished third in G3 Falcon Stakes in March 2021. He performed poorly in the last two starts at turf sprint division, and the trainer decides to send him in dirt race for the first time. His sire, DAIWA MAJOR, has sent some of the top class dirt performers, such as BULLDOG BOSS and NOVA LENDA, and he may act on dirt as good as on turf.

SELECTIONS: 5. HAKODATE BUSHO, 10. NONLICENSE, 16. CYCLOTRON, 8. RECIPROCATE & 15. MONDREISE

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 5. HAKODATE BUSHO
Selections – 10. NONLICENSE, 16. CYCLOTRON, 8. RECIPROCATE & 15. MONDREISE
S1-6:   
Banker – 4. KILLER ABILITY
Selections – 18. EQUINOX, 1. DANON BELUGA, 14. GEOGLYPH & 2. ASK VICTOR MORE
 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. HAKODATE BUSHO, 10. NONLICENSE & 16. CYCLOTRON
S1-6: Multiple – 4. KILLER ABILITY, 18. EQUINOX & 1. DANON BELUGA
S1-7: Multiple – 10. ROAD TO FAME, 1. PARADISE REEF & 7. VELA AZUL

S1-6 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)

There is no outstanding horse and the 82nd running of Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Crown for 3YOs, looks to be wide open. Three winners of the last five running of G1 Hopeful Stakes, which is conducted at the same course and distance as Satsuki Sho in December, four months before Satsuki Sho, came straight to Satsuki Sho, without having any prep races. While REY DE ORO was beaten fifth in 2017, SATURNALIA and CONTRAIL won Satsuki Sho in 2019 and 2020.

Although it is a small sample, it is reassuring factor for KILLER ABILITY, winner of the G1 Hopeful Stakes in 2021, who comes straight to Satsuki Sho without having any prep race. The colt by DEEP IMPACT attracted racing fans’ attention, as a promising colt, for the first time when he won a maiden at Kokura on 28th August by seven lengths, breaking track record for 2YOs. While he was beaten second in Listed Hagi Stakes at Hanshin on 30th October, when slowly-run race didn’t suit him, he won G1 Hopeful Stakes on 28th December comfortably, after which KILLER ABILITY had an easy time at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm. He returned to Takashi Saito’s barn in Ritto Training Centre on 15th March and has been trained beautifully since then. As there is a couple of front runners in the field, it is expected the pace of Satsuki Sho becomes strong, which KILLER ABILITY prefers. I pick KILLER ABILITY as my favourite.

It is widely recognized that EQUINOX, who is unbeaten in two starts so far, has a potential to be a great runner as like his sire, KITASAN BLACK, Japanese Horse of the Year in 2016 and 2017. His performance in G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes last November, in which EQUINOX covered final 600m for 32.9 seconds, was so impressive. While he has not run since then, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race. EQUINOX is my second choice.

Previous race of 15 starters in last ten running of Satsuki Sho was G3 Kyodo News Hai and four of them managed to win Satsuki Sho, namely GOLD SHIP in 2012, ISLA BONITA in 2014, DEE MAJESTY in 2016 and EFFORIA in 2021. Strike rate of 25% is amazing and Kyodo News Hai is, no doubt, the most important prep race for Satsuki Sho. This fact suggests DANON BELUGA and GEOGLYPH, the first and second finisher in Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 13th February, run well in Satsuki Sho on Sunday. DANON BELUGA and GEOGLYPH are my third and fourth choice.

ASK VICTOR MORE, winner of G2 Yayoi Sho at the same course and distance as Satsuki Sho on 6th March, is unbeaten at Nakayama where the colt by DEEP IMPACT is three for three. I believe he has a good chance to finish in the first five in Satsuki Sho.

SELECTIONS: 4. KILLER ABILITY, 18. EQUINOX, 1. DANON BELUGA, 14. GEOGLYPH & 2. ASK VICTOR MORE

S1-7 Sunshine Stakes

Sunshine Stakes for three time winning 4YO and upper is conducted at 2,500m turf course at Nakayama, which is the same stage as G1 Arima Kinen, year-end championship race in Japan.

My favourite is ROAD TO FAME, 4YO colt by MATSURIDA GOGH, who graduated the class for two time winners last September over the same course and distance as this race. The winning time was 2 minutes and 31.9 seconds, is faster than standard time and I had an impression that ROAD TO FAME would be competitive at higher class. He was well beaten in G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Hanshin on 24th October, when the competition was too tough for him, and finished sixth in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 25th December, when he had not recovered well after the tough competition in Kikuka Sho. After having two disappointing runs, ROAD TO FAME bounced back and finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 22nd January, although it was slowly-run race, which did not suit him. I believe he is now ready to graduate this class.

PARADISE REEF, who finished second in the stakes race on 22nd January, being ahead of ROAD TO FAME, is my second choice. He finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin last November and it is obvious that the 6YO horse by DEEP IMPACT is competitive at this class. It is also obvious that PARADISE REEF likes the track at Nakayama, as he started there for three times, won twice, and finished second once. While the distance of his last four starts was 2,000m, he won a 2,300m race when he was 3YO and I believe he has enough stamina to stay 2,500m. He carries top weight, 126lbs, and I believe it is fair weight.

VELA AZUL, who won the allowance race for two time winners over 2,600m on turf at Hanshin on 19th March, is my third choice. That was the 17th start in his career and first start on turf for him. And it was first time for the 5YO horse by EISHIN FLASH to run a race longer than 2,100m. Long trip on turf suits him undoubtedly and I judge he can run well against three time winners in Sunshine Stakes. And his morning track work on 7th April at Ritto Training Centre was so impressive, as he was breezed for 1,200m and clocked 79.7 seconds. I am pretty sure he is in the top form and VELA AZUL is my third choice.

FIGLIO ALLEGRO, who won the allowance race for two time winners at the same course and distance as this race thirteen months ago, is my fourth choice. He has placed in Graded Stakes when he was 3YO and I believe he should have ability to run well against three time winners.

SATONO RADIUS, who finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at the same course and distance as this race last December, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 10. ROAD TO FAME, 1. PARADISE REEF, 7. VELA AZUL, 9. FIGLIO ALLEGRO & 5. SATONO RADIUS

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