Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Nakayama Racecourse – Track Analysis (Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day):

Nakayama is a clockwise oval track with two routes for turf course - the inner track and the outer track, and a dirt course. The outer track branches off from the inner track at the exit of near turn and rejoins the inner track at the entrance of far turn. The homestretches for the turf course and dirt course are 310m and 308m respectively. Meanwhile, it is the tendency at Nakayama that the tempo is picked up at the middle of far turn, and the runners who hold endurance and stamina enjoy better results than runners who hold sharp turn of foot.

This year, four turf races and three dirt races from the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day will be simulcast to Hong Kong.

The feature race 2000m Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and Nojimazaki Tokubetsu are conducted at the inner turf track. Starting gate is set at the top of homestretch, runners go through 405m straight course from the starting gate until the entrance of near turn. Beginning 100m is slight downslope and next 400m is upslope with a difference in the height of 5.3m. Statistic shows there is no draw bias at this course. For example, CONTRAIL, who jumped from draw one on far rail, won Satsuki Sho in 2020 and DEE MAJESTY, who jumped from draw eighteen, the widest draw, won Satsuki Sho in 2016. The pace tends to be quick at the beginning 400m and slow down when runners go into near turn. Track record is 1 minute and 57.8 seconds. It is analysed that runners who take command and come from behind have equal chances at this course, while CAPTAIN THULE in 2008 is the last Satsuki Sho winner who competed for wire-to-wire victory.

For the races on the outer turf track, the starting gate of 1200m Sodegaura Tokubetsu is set at the beginning of the backstretch and there is 275m long straight from the starting gate to the beginning far turn. Statistics show there is nearly no draw bias at this course. Given the short homestretch, tactical speed is always the key to success and it is the tendency that front runners and runners who track leaders closely enjoy better result, this is a fair course and closers are not denied.

For the 2500m Sunshine Stakes, the starting gate is set on the outer turf track at 100m before rejoining the inner turf track. There is 192m straight from the starting gate to the first bend and no draw bias at this course. Initial 400m is flat and slight downslope begins at the exit of far turn. 250m before winning post on homestretch is the lowest point of this course. Homestretch is 310m long and final 200m is upslope with a difference in the height of 2.2m. It is the tendency at this course that tempo is slow and it is picked up around at 1000m out. While this is a fair track, runners who track leaders closely tend to enjoy better results than closers.

For the dirt races, the 1200m 4yo and up 1 win and the Listed Keiyo Stakes, starting gate is set on turf track and wide draw is favourable, because runners which start from wide draw run a longer distance on turf than runners who start from the inside draw. There is a 502m long straight from the start to the first turn. The pace tends to be strong at this course. Runners of the 1800m 4yo and up 1 win will break from the top of the homestretch. There is no specific draw bias, front runners and runners who track leaders closely enjoy better results over this distance. And “power” and “stamina” work well here, rather than “speed” and “turn of foot”.

Last year’s Satsuki Sho was contested on the good to soft ground. The pace was set by WORLD REVIVAL, which clocked 60.3 seconds at the midpoint, which is an average page, and DANON THE KID tracked the leader from the third position. TITLEHOLDER, who was tracking the leader from the second position, passed WORLD REVIVAL at 600m out and EFFORIA, who was at fourth position and made up ground on rail side at the final turn, hit the front at the top of the homestretch. EFFORIA, widened the margin through homestretch and won Satsuki Sho by 600m. TITLEHOLDER finished second, while DANON THE KID weakened on the homestretch and finished 15th in 16 runners’ field.

Spring meeting at Nakayama started on 26th February and the day of Satsuki Sho is the 16th race day. While it is maintained well, turf track at rail side on backstretch and far turn are slightly rough.

Rain is forecasted few days before the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day, it is expected the tracks at Nakayama are soft on this year’s edition. Please be advised to pay attention to weather updates.

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