Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for 2000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-1     Kilvington Stakes

 

The obvious starting point in the Listed Kilvington Stakes over 1,200m is FLOTUS. Trained by Simon and Ed Crisford, this daughter of STARSPANGLEDBANNER finished her campaign last year impressively. Lining up in the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 1,200m at this course, she was only headed late on by the impressive TENEBRISM, the favourite in Sunday’s G1 1000 Guineas Stakes. 3YOs have a strong record in the race having won all runnings since 2017 and it would be no surprise to see FLOTUS continue that trend in this year’s renewal.

At the other end of the age scale is the 6YO GALE FORCE MAYA, who is the oldest runner in the field. However, her credentials are clear as this course really plays to her strengths. In the five visits she has made to Newmarket, all over this 1,200m distance, she has won twice, including on her seasonal reappearance here just a couple of weeks ago, as well as finishing second twice, and registering one third. The course specialist should go well again.

TALABAAT is an interesting runner for the Archie Watson stable, making her debut run on these shores. To date she has raced solely in France and while starting off her campaign in perfect fashion last year, the results soon started to tail off.  Partnered with Hollie Doyle for the first time, and if taking to racing conditions in England, she could regain some of that flourish she had shown at this time of the year last season where she went unbeaten up until July.  

UMM KULTHUM is no stranger to the top level having been placed twice in the G2 Lowther Stakes over 1,200m at York and the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 1,200m in 2020. The 4YO’s best form is with cut in the ground, though, and on the only occasion she has run on a sounder surface she failed to set the world alight when finishing eighth in the G3 Fred Darling Stakes over 1,400m. With a quick surface anticipated for this race, there will be concerns but she should have the class to be up there at the finish.

 

SELECTIONS:7. FLOTUS, 1. GALE FORCE MAYA, 4. TALABAAT & 6. UMM KULTHUM

 

S1-2     4yo+ Handicap

 

Several high-class sprinters have won this handicap in recent years, including G1 winners MAAREK and GOLDREAM. Given the depth of this race, with so many unexposed types, it could be won by another sprinter that will go on to prove better than handicap class.

The G3 Abernant Stakes, run over this course and distance two weeks ago, looks a key formline to this race, with JUMBY finishing third. JUMBY has an excellent course record at Newmarket and is only a shade higher in the weights than when winning at the track last September. Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner should improve for his reappearance.

FIRST FOLIO finished behind JUMBY over this course and distance in May last year, but James Ferguson’s horse wasn’t helped by being slowly away from the stalls that day. This son of DARK ANGEL won on his reappearance last season and has proven his ability at Newmarket. He looks feasibly handicapped as well, having finished fourth by less than a length off this handicap mark on his final start at York last season over 1,200m, so there’s every reason to think he can go well.

TARHIB was pitched into a strong Listed race over 1,202m on only his fourth start last season and while he travelled well for a long way, he couldn’t pick up when the field quickened in the last 200m. He’s worth another chance on better ground, as the soft conditions at Doncaster are unlikely to have suited him, while his opening handicap mark could underestimate him.

Michael Dods’ sprinters always need to be respected and it’s interesting he has two entered here. BLACKROD might prove to be the best handicapped of the two, after finishing a good third in the Ayr over 1,200m when last seen in September. He is another with form over this course and distance, having won here last July and relishes fast ground. While he is likely to come on for his seasonal reappearance, if the rain stays away he can have a say.

 

SELECTIONS:3. JUMBY, 11. FIRST FOLIO, 20. TARHIB & 12. BLACKROD

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker –3. JUMBY
Selections – 11. FIRST FOLIO, 20. TARHIB & 12. BLACKROD
S1-3:
Banker – 9. FAST MEDICINE
Selections – 2. DHAHABI, 4. NOTRE BELLE BETE, 1. MOVIN TIME & 6. FOREST FALCON

 

S1-3     3yo+ Handicap

 

MOVIN TIME can be delicate, but he is a classy horse with a big engine, though he is weighted accordingly. Remember, it was less than a year ago that he broke his maiden at this course over 2,000m. He then ran well at Royal Ascot over 1,993m, but his trainer struggled to keep him sound, so after fading tamely once headed at Newbury over 2,000m, MOVIN TIME was gelded. That may well help him.

DHAHABI cost a small fortune as a yearling, not surprising as he is a FRANKEL half-brother to G1 Derby Stakes and G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner GOLDEN HORN. The Godolphin colt made the perfect start when winning on his 2YO debut at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,400m. But trainer Charlie Appleby always felt that DHAHABI would not blossom until his second season, so was not too disappointed when he was then twice beaten. He certainly lost nothing in defeat when finishing third to the classy ONE RULER at Newmarket over 1,600m in the G3 Autumn Stakes. However, DHAHABI suffered several setbacks at three and never made it to the racecourse. He now returns after an absence of 18 months, but he is still rated highly and looks interesting.

At the other end of the handicap, FAST MEDICINE could be a major player. He was gelded during the winter and showed marked improvement when returning at Nottingham over 1,668m two weeks ago. Wearing a hood for the first time, he settled well and took charge of the race at the 400m-pole to win by six lengths. He has taken a sharp rise up the weights and also jumps up two grades, but he looks to be improving at a rate of knots.

Like FAST MEDICINE, NOTRE BELLE BETE, whose trainer, Andrew Balding won this race last year, is a progressive sort. Gelded after coming over from Ireland during the winter, he is 3-3 over around 1,600m on the polytrack and tapeta this year. Granted, NOTRE BELLE BETE has yet to win on turf, but he was only beaten four lengths when thrown in at the deep end in the Lincoln over 1,600m at Doncaster in March.

FOREST FALCON hit top form last back-end, winning competitive handicaps at Carlisle over 1,800m and Yarmouth over 2,021m. He made a pleasing reappearance after a seven-month absence when finishing third at Chelmsford recently, but he’ll appreciate being back on turf.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. FAST MEDICINE, 2. DHAHABI, 4. NOTRE BELLE BETE, 1. MOVIN TIME & 6. FOREST FALCON

 

S1-4     Palace House Stakes

 

Henry Candy has guided the careers of some top sprinters over the years, and he looks to have another smart prospect on his hands with TWILIGHT CALLS. He was progressive last season and looked very good when landing a hot 1,000m handicap at Newmarket (July Course) in July before luck deserted him in two races later in the season.

The way he kicked off this year was impressive. He came from off the pace to record a smooth victory over 1,000m at Newmarket, so he clearly has a liking for this course. This is a step up in grade but the jump from top handicaps to this G3 level is not huge in sprints and he looks to have everything needed to make an impact at this level.

TIS MARVELLOUS has already proven he can be competitive in this grade. Clive Cox’s sprinter ended last season with three wins in four races, all over 1,000m. Two of those victories came in Listed races and his only defeat came when a close third behind HURRICANE IVOR in a G3 over 1,031m at Newbury. This race is likely to set him up for bigger targets later in the season, but he certainly has the ability to run a big race on his first start of the season.

CAME FROM THE DARK is another having his first race of the year. He was only beaten a head when third over 1,001m at Musselburgh after a five-month break last season and he signed off for the year with a neck defeat of ARECIBO in the G3 Sprint Stakes over 1,009m at Sandown in July. Ed Walker’s runner has not been seen since, but he will enjoy the fast ground.

ARECIBO won twice over 1,000m at Newmarket early last season, either side of finishing sixth in this race when he was hampered at a crucial stage. He went on to finish runner-up behind OXTED in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot when the lightning-fast early pace helped his hold-up running style. If he gets another decent gallop to aim at, he should be a big contender.

WHENTHEDEALINSDONE had TWILIGHT CALLS behind when landing a good 1,000m Goodwood handicap last July. He hasn’t had much racing and he looks the type to improve this season, so he could easily play a part in the finish.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. TWILIGHT CALLS, 2. ARECIBO, 9. TIS MARVELLOUS, 4. CAME FROM THE DARK & 11. WHENTHEDEALINSDONE

 

S1-5     2000 Guineas Stakes

 

Charlie Appleby has won the last two British Classics and he looks to hold very solid claims of making it three in a row in this year’s 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas Stakes.

The British trainer is responsible for both NATIVE TRAIL and COROEBUS, the two ante-post favourites for the race, and he must have high hopes that one of them will emerge victorious. Many see NATIVE TRAIL as the most likely winner and it’s not hard to see why. The son of OASIS DREAM has won all five of his races so far, including two G1s over 1,400m, and he was impressive when seen for the first time this season over 1,600m in the G3 Craven Stakes at Newmarket. He handled the step up in trip well there and should go very close.

Stablemate COROEBUS is less experienced having had just three starts, all of which have come over 1,600m at Newmarket. He won nicely on debut before being touched off in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes where going for home too early cost him. The 3YO made amends next time in the G3 Autumn Stakes and looks a worthy adversary to NATIVE TRAIL.

Given he has won the race a record 10 times, Aidan O’Brien’s runners must always be respected and both LUXEMBOURG and POINT LONSDALE deserve a mention.

LUXEMBOURG is another unbeaten colt having won all three career starts so far, with the most recent of those coming in the G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. He was impressive that day and has to be respected, although he might be seen at better effect over further.

POINT LONSDALE lost his unbeaten tag when beaten by NATIVE TRAIL in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh last season and hasn’t been seen since. The son of AUSTRALIA is another who has impressed in his career so far and must enter the reckoning, especially if the ground comes fast as forecasted.

One that might outrun his odds is EYDON who was very impressive at Newmarket last time in the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1,800m.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. NATIVE TRAIL, 4. COROEBUS, 6. EYDON, 12. POINT LONSDALE & 9. LUXEMBOURG

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 10. NATIVE TRAIL
Selections – 4. COROEBUS, 6. EYDON, 12. POINT LONSDALE & 9. LUXEMBOURG
S1-6:
Banker – 7. CONTACT
Selections – 5. MATCHLESS, 1. TRITONIC & 4. STATE OF BLISS

 

S1-6     4yo+ 0-105 Handicap

 

CONTACT was only just beaten in the mud at Thirsk over 2,407m three weeks ago, but he will be better suited by this ground, on which he slammed older rivals at Pontefract over 2,405m last season. All his three wins have come when the going was fast, and his shrewd North Yorkshire stable often do well on their southern raids.

The Johnston stable won this race 12 months ago and the pick of their duo could be STATE OF BLISS. He was disappointing at Musselburgh over 2,796m, but he bounced back to form when landing a gamble at Ripon over 2,409m a week ago and comes here on a high.

MATCHLESS, who was formerly trained by Aidan O’Brien and won at Listowel over 1,400m as a 2YO, has produced five good runs in seven starts since he joined Ivan Furtado at the end of last year. The change in scenery seems to have done MATCHLESS the world of good, and he has won twice over 2,039m at Doncaster this spring. He now tries a longer trip and a higher grade, but he has hit his peak at the right time and again has solid claims.

The versatile TRITONIC had mixed luck as a juvenile hurdler, but he found his form over jumps again last autumn, winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Ascot and also finishing second at Cheltenham’s October meeting. However, TRITONIC is arguably even better as a Flat horse, and he will relish this faster ground. He was runner-up in a competitive handicap at Royal Ascot over 2,000m two years ago and, though he finished down the field when last seen on the level at Royal Ascot over 2,400m last year, connections put that down to the testing ground.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. CONTACT, 5. MATCHLESS, 1. TRITONIC & 4. STATE OF BLISS

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 7. CONTACT, 5. MATCHLESS & 1. TRITONIC
S1-7: Multiple – 4. KING OF TIME, 2. PRIVATE SIGNAL & 1. RAZZLE DAZZLE
S1-8: Multiple – 8. LOVES ME LIKEAROCK, 7. ANADORA & 1. MANACCAN

 

S1-7     3yo 76-95 Handicap

 

KING OF TIME has a great chance of maintaining his unbeaten record in this 1,600m handicap.

The Godolphin 3YO made a successful debut over 1,601m on Lingfield’s polytrack in February and he returned to the same course and distance to double his tally two weeks later. The switch to turf shouldn’t be a problem and Charlie Appleby’s hope is bred to be smart. He’s by top stallion KINGMAN and is a half-brother of Listed winner AGROTERA.

His stablemate PRIVATE SIGNAL gives Appleby a strong hand. He looks nicely weighted on his Leicester novice win over 1,400m last June when making all the running to beat ASWAN by a length. It’s hard to be too harsh on him for finishing last of nine behind 2000 Guineas Stakes favourite NATIVE TRAIL in the G2 Superlative Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) in July on his final start of last season as he pulled far too hard in the early stages. There was a lot to like about his return to action over 1,400m at Newbury two weeks ago when he finished runner-up behind unbeaten WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU. The step up to 1,600m looks sure to help and he should have improved for that run.

RAZZLE DAZZLE ended last season on a low when well beaten in a Doncaster Listed race over 1,405m. That race was his third run in a fairly short space of time, so it might pay to forgive him that effort. His earlier novice victory over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) was an impressive performance so he is worth another chance.

SPIRIT CATCHER was successful on his handicap debut. There was a lot to like about his attitude when staying on strongly to win over 1,602m at Musselburgh two weeks ago. This is a stronger race, but he looks capable of plenty of improvement. Like many of the 3YOs from Charlie and Mark Johnston’s stables, he should progress throughout the season.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. KING OF TIME, 2. PRIVATE SIGNAL, 1. RAZZLE DAZZLE & 3. SPIRIT CATCHER

 

S1-8     3yo 81-100 Handicap

 

Last year’s renewal produced a G1 winner in the shape of CREATIVE FORCE, who went on to land both the G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes in October.

While we might not have a horse of that potential in this year’s field, it’s a high-class and highly competitive event, headed by the 102-rated MANACCAN. He was a runaway winner over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) on his third career start, while the second, third, fourth and sixth all went on to win. In hotter company, the son of EXCEED AND EXCEL ran with credit, finishing sixth in the G2 1,600m Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury and fourth at this track over 1,000m in the Cornwallis Stakes. Although he’s a very solid yardstick in this Class 2 event, he has plenty of weight to shoulder.

ROBJON is another of the more exposed runners, having had nine starts already, but his debut win over a quick 1,100m at Brighton was followed by a string of placed efforts and that’s left him on a fair handicap mark. Richard Hannon gave him a run at Kempton over 1,400m in March before reappearing on the turf over course and distance a fortnight ago, where he finished fifth.

ANADORA and LOVES ME LIKEAROCK filled the first two places that day and look like the obvious contenders to be fighting it out again. ANADORA, who hit the front 600m out and was never headed, is the one they’ve all got to turn the form around with, but he’s now got a fair rise in the weights to overcome which makes things tougher.

The runner-up from that race, LOVES ME LIKEAROCK, could be the one to come out on top. Charlie Hills’ horses are in great early-season form and the grey son of LETHAL FORCE remains unexposed. The handicapper has raised him only slightly for his second to ANADORA and he looked like he’d come on a bit for the run. Despite travelling up strongly alongside the winner, he couldn’t go past but he’ll be fitter for that effort and might be able to reverse the form, particularly now the pair are level at the weights.

HARRY THREE was third behind ANADORA and LOVES ME LIKEAROCK in that 1,200m contest and should be in the shakeup again with his handicap mark unchanged. He remains unexposed and is a full-brother to highly-talented stablemate DILLIGENT HARRY.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. LOVES ME LIKEAROCK, 7. ANADORA, 1. MANACCAN, 9. HARRY THREE & 4. ROBJON

 

 

 

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