 Tim Carroll 's Bio | |
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| Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following. | |
Newmarket Racecourse – Track Analysis (2000 Guineas Day):
Newmarket, which is known as the headquarters of British horse racing, consists of the two racecourses, The July Course, and the Rowley Mile Course. The Rowley Mile Course, which is the course that stages the 2000 Guineas Day, is in the shape of a right handed turning dog-leg, stretching over 4000m, with a straight of 2000m, which is the longest in Britain.
It is a wide-open track, fair in nature, encouraging strongly run races, with minor undulations 400m from the finish. They run downhill from the 400m to the 200m, they then reach what is known as the ‘dip’, this is a spot where horses can become unbalanced, thus riders need to be careful. They then face a challenging uphill finish over the final 200m, which has seen plenty caught in the closing stages.
Eight turf races will be simulcast from 2000 Guineas Day this year.
Over the straight course of Rowley Mile Course, there can be a draw bias, more so in larger fields, but not so much in smaller fields where they tend to bunch down the centre of the track. The draw bias in larger fields is hard to predict, especially given that the rails are constantly moved due to the amount of racing, thus it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall bias, but if they do split, it is considered beneficial if riders can be part of the group that sets the pace.
For the 1000m G3 Palace House Stakes, as is the case with all distances, the low barriers are drawn on the far with high numbers on the grandstand side. The barriers are placed half way up the straight, usually in a central position, and in smaller fields they tend to bunch down the centre of the track, but can split into more than one group in larger fields.
There are three races over 1200m, the Kilvington Stakes, the 4yo+ Handicap and the 3yo 81-100 Handicap, the same dynamics apply as the 1000m, but keep in mind the uphill finish over the final 200m, and the further the distance the more likely those who are too aggressive, or go too early, will be picked off late when going up the hill.
For the 1800m 3yo+ Handicap, the barriers once again will be placed in a central position in smaller fields, but can be moved in larger fields, and riders will usually look to come down the centre of the track in smaller fields. However, in larger fields they tend to split and in recent times, high draws on the grandstand side have a better record than those drawn low.
The 2400m 4yo+ 0-105 Handicap start is the only race on 2000 Guineas Day that is not down the straight course. They jump from 400m before the bend that leads into the straight, thus those drawn high have plenty of time to find a spot and the draw is of little consequence, although in larger fields those who like to press forward would prefer not to be drawn high.
The feature race G1 2000 Guineas Stakes and 3yo 76-95 Handicap are over 1600m. The barriers will be placed according to field size and rail positioning. They jump and travel on what is mostly a flat straight course, before arriving at the undulations and the downhill run 400m from home. They then hit the ‘dip’ before an uphill run to the finish. In the last ten renewals of the 2000 Guineas Stakes, the field has split into at least two or more groups on six occasions. Keeping in mind they can start on one part of the track, and drift in the latter stages, however, of the last ten winners, six have predominately raced on the stand side, three down the middle, and one of the far side. Although speed dictates most races, it is notable that very few winners have come from the back of the field, and no leader has won the race in that time. Being early in the season and the first weekend of Classic action in Britain, those successful tend to be 3YO’s having their first start of the campaign, with eight of the last ten colts running first-up, whilst the other two winners were having their second start as a 3YO.
Last year's 2000 Guineas Stakes was run on good to firm ground with a field of 14 going to post. NAVAL CROWN soon led from DEVILWALA, with both ONE RULER and POETIC FLARE stalking the two leaders, and the favourite, BATTLEGROUND, sat in mid division, with the entire field staying in one group down the centre of the track. The race was run at a decent gallop and it was apparent at the 400m mark that the favourite was starting to struggle, as MASTERS OF THE SEAS made a sharp move to challenge the leader and briefly hit the front, but POETIC FLARE went with MASTER OF THE SEAS, as LUCKY VEGA pursued the pair. POETIC FLARE and MASTER OF THE SEAS fought out a stirring finish with the former winning by the barest of margins, with LUCKY VEGA only a half a length behind in third, in a time that was 0.31 seconds faster than standard.
The last ten renewals of the 2000 Guineas Day have been run on ground with good in the description. The weather forecast is for mostly clear days leading up to the meeting, thus if the forecasts are correct, and from a recent historically perspective, it is likely the meeting will be run on ground with good in description.
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