Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for NHK Mile Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 4yo and up 1 win

This is an allowance race for one time winning 4YO and upper over 1,300m on dirt.

My favourite is NEO TRUE trained by Nobuhiro Suzuki. While the 5YO horse by KINSHASA NO KISEKI finished second in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race last October, he failed to finish within the first three in the last two starts. There were excuses, for example, he was boxed in at the top of the homestretch in the allowance race at Tokyo on 6th February and clock-wise track was not suitable for him in the allowance race at Nakayama on 6th March. I believe 1,300m dirt course at Tokyo is the stage to show himself at his best. And he has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre since the last start and I believe he is in top form now.

FAMOUS DANDY is my second choice. The 4YO colt by DANON LEGEND finished third in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 17th April. It was a slowly-run race, winner was the front runner, and second finisher was the runner who tracked the leader from second position, while FAMOUS DANDY was settled at rear of field and made up ground at homestretch, covering the final 600m for 36.5 seconds, which was the quickest in 16 runners. I regard this performance highly and I believe Tokyo is a suitable track for the closer.

ECORO BLAST finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 16th January. As LORD MIDNIGHT, winner of the allowance race, finished second in the allowance race for two time winners subsequently, I understand I should regard this form highly. While he was beaten sixth in the allowance race at Nakayama on 13th March, he jumped from the widest draw and wide trip all way through cost him. I am sure he should run much better on Sunday and ECORO BLAST is my third choice.       

One of the most consistent runners in this field is TOSEN NICK, who has finished within the first four in the last five starts at this class. The 4YO colt by TOSEN PHANTOM finished second in the allowance race at Nakayama on 2nd April, beaten by half a length by PHRASEMAKER, who carried 119lbs, while TOSEN NICK carried 126lbs. I believe TOSEN NICK has a good chance to finish within the first four on Sunday.

PLUS ULTRA lost his form and failed to finish within the first three in seven starts in a row since 2nd May 2021 to 12th February 2022. However, the colt by DISCREET CAT finished second in the allowance race at Nakayama on 27th February, covering final 600m for 37.6 seconds, which is one of the quickest horses among the 16 runners, and I have a feeling that he is now bouncing back. PLUS ULTRA is my fifth choice.  

SELECTIONS: 16. NEO TRUE, 7. FAMOUS DANDY, 10. ECORO BLAST, 14. TOSEN NICK & 13. PLUS ULTRA

S1-2 4yo and up 1 win

This is the allowance race for one time winning 4YO and upper over 2,000m on turf.

My favourite is DIOS VALIENTE, trained by Noriyuki Hori. He is the tenth foal out of DIA DE LA NOVIA, winner of three Graded Stakes, and has been regarded highly by his connections from day one. In fact, he finished second in the Listed Principal Stakes, one of the Japanese Derby preps at Tokyo in May 2021. He was sidelined for seven months, due to training setback, and returned at racecourse on 29th January, when he finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo. I understand it was a good effort, as it was the first start since last June. Hori judges Tokyo is more suitable for DIOS VALIENTE than Nakayama and waits for this spring meeting at Tokyo. I believe he has a good chance to win on Sunday.

MEINER HITZE won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 16th May 2021 and finished third in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 13th June 2021. Although it looked he could graduate this class soon, he lost his form since then and ran poorly in four starts in a row. The 4YO colt by GOLD SHIP bounced back and finished second in the allowance race at Nakayama on 16th April. As he has gotten back into form, I believe he is capable to finish the first two in this field.       

When NO EXCUSE won a maiden at Tokyo on 30th May 2020 by three lengths, we thought he should have a bright future. However, series of training setback affected badly his career and he is still belonging to this class. He had a wind surgery and is now gelded. In other words, he is reset and regrouped. Though this is the first start for him since July 2021, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race. NO EXCUSE is my third choice.

VANISHING POINT, expensive import from the United States, made successful racecourse debut at Sapporo on 2nd August 2020, when the colt by TAPIT won maiden by seven lengths. It was very impressive performance and many thought he would be a Graded Stakes performer. However, he has been struggling to collect second win and is still running at this class. He has finished second in the allowance race at Tokyo on 20th February. If he re-produces this form, I assess VANISHING POINT should finish within the first four.

SELECTIONS: 5. DIOS VALIENTE, 1. MEINER HITZE, 3. NO EXCUSE & 6. VANISHING POINT

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 5. DIOS VALIENTE
Selections – 1. MEINER HITZE, 3. NO EXCUSE & 6. VANISHING POINT
S1-3:   
Banker – 3. JUNGLE KING
Selections – 5. BAKUSHIN, 10. PRECIOSO, 4. ALMEIDA MINORU & 11. ZENNO MICHIZANE
 

S1-3 4yo and up 2 wins

This is the allowance race for two time winning 4YO and upper over 1,400m on dirt. It is the tendency that milers perform better than sprinters at this course.

My favourite is JUNGLE KING, trained by Tetsuya Kimura. First six starts for the 4YO colt by DURAMENTE were all turf races. He won turf maiden at Tokyo on 28th November 2020, finished second twice and third twice on turf. Hence, JUNGLE KING was acting well on turf, however, Kimura decides to switch the surface and latest two starts of JUNGLE KING were dirt races and he won the allowance race on 12th February over the same course and distance as this race by five lengths. It is, no doubt, the best performance for JUNGLE KING so far and he acts better on dirt than turf. While it is the first time for him to compete against two time winners, I have a feeling that JUNGLE KING is competitive at this class.

BAKUSHIN finished third in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 20th February and it is a good effort. Then, the 4YO colt by HENNY HUGHES was disappointing 10th in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 13th March, when he looked dull and walked stiffly in parade ring. I think that race came too soon after previous start. Since then, Makoto Saito, who trains BAKUSHIN, took enough time to improve his physical and mental condition, and he has now regained his form. BAKUSHIN is my second choice.

PRECIOSO made successful debut at Nakayama on 21st March 2020, when he won a maiden over 1,800m on dirt , and collected another win at Nakayama on April 11th 2020, when he won the allowance race over 1,800m on dirt. Then, Hisashi Shimizu, who trains PRECIOSO, started to send him in races on turf. He started 11 times on turf, finished second once, and third for seven times. It is not bad, but he failed to win a turf race. Now, Shimizu decides to send PRECIOSO back to dirt race. As he is half-brother to RAPTUS, who won four domestic Graded Stakes at NAR, I am not surprised if PRECIOSO runs a big race on Sunday.

ALMEIDA MINORU finished third in an allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 23rd April, and I judge this is a good performance, as he jumped from the widest draw and the tempo was too slow for him. ALMEIDA MINORU is my fourth choice.

ZENNO MICHIZANE, who graduated the class for one time winners at Hanshin on 23rd April, is my fifth choice. He has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre since the last start and I have a feeling that anti-clockwise track suits better for ZENNO MICHIZANE than clockwise track.  

SELECTIONS: 3. JUNGLE KING, 5. BAKUSHIN, 10. PRECIOSO, 4. ALMEIDA MINORU & 11. ZENNO MICHIZANE

S1-4 Shonan Stakes

Shonan Stakes is for three time winning 4YO and upper over 1,600m on turf.

My favourite is WIN CHARLOTTE, trained by Shoichiro Wada. The 4YO filly by SCREEN HERO graduated the class for two time winners at Tokyo on 5th February, and finished second in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 27th March. I judge from her performance in the last start that she is capable to graduate the class for three time winners pretty soon. It is obvious that she loves track at Tokyo, where she has collected all of her three wins. And WIN CHARLOTTE won maiden at the same course and distance as this race in April 2021 and the winning time was 1 minute and 33.1 seconds, which is much faster than standard. Moreover, her morning trackwork at Miho Training Centre on 27th April was impressive.

PHRASE D’ARMES has been running consistently at the class for three time winners, finishing second in the allowance race at Hanshin on 20th February and fourth in another allowance race at Hanshin on 17th April. In the later race, she was boxed in at the top of the homestretch, and then, after she found a gap, she was bumped badly, hence, I believe she should have finished within the first two if she had a smooth path. She has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre since last start and PHRASE D’ARMES is my second choice.  

RICKENBACKER is the fourth finisher in the G1 NHK Mile Cup over the same course and distance as this race in May 2021, and finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race last November. It is obvious that 1,600m turf course at Tokyo is the stage to show himself at his best. Although he was beaten sixth at Nakayama on 26th February, he was bumped soon after the break and could not have a smooth run. I believe he has a good chance to finish within the first three.

LUPERCALIA, trained by Yasuo Tomomichi, finished fourth in G3 Mainichi Hai at Hanshin in March 2021 and second in G2 Kyoto Shimbun Hai at Chukyo in May 2021. If he re-produces those form of Graded Stakes, I believe he should run well in this race. As he has run poorly in recent starts, Tomomichi decides to cut back the distance and I expect it works well for the colt by MAURICE. LUPERCALIA is my fourth choice.  

CLEAN SWEEP graduated the class for two time winners last November, when she won the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race. The 4YO filly by DURAMENTE loves the track at Tokyo, where she started for three times, won one of them, and finished second twice. I believe she has a good chance to finish within the first five.

SELECTIONS: 8. WIN CHARLOTTE, 13. PHRASE D'ARMES, 10. RICKENBACKER, 12. LUPERCALIA & 15. CLEAN SWEEP

S1-5 Metropolitan Stakes

Metropolitan Stake is the Listed Race over 2,400m on turf, which is the stage of G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and G1 Japan Cup.

My favourite is WEISS METEOR trained by Tetsuya Kimura. The colt by KING KAMEHAMEHA finished fourth in the Listed Principal Stakes at Tokyo twelve months ago, covering final 600m for 33.4 seconds, which was the quickest in 13 runners, and then, won G3 Radio Nikkei Sho at Fukushima by two and a half lengths, covering final 600m for 34.8 seconds, which is the quickest again in 16 runners. His late kick is very sharp and strong. Although he was beaten 16th in G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Hanshin last October, it is obvious that 3,000m is too far for him. WEISS METEOR finished fourth in G3 Kokura Daishoten at Kokura on 20th February and I reckon this is a good effort, because he had not run since last October and I don’t think Kokura, which is tight and narrow, is a suitable track for him. I understand Tokyo, which has long homestretch, is a preferable track for him and it is encouraging that Damian Lane is booked for him on Sunday.

FLY LIKE BIRD, who finished third in G2 Copa Republica Argentina at Tokyo last November, is my second choice. He was beaten three and a quarter lengths by AUTHORITY, who finished second in G1 Japan Cup and won G3 Neom Turf Cup subsequently, in the G2 event, and I am pretty sure the 5YO horse by SCREEN HERO is capable to finish within the first three in the Listed race, if he produces his best form on Sunday. Although he was beaten 15th in G2 Nikkei Shinshun Hai last time out, he was very hot in parade ring and pulled too hard during the race. I hope he is relaxed before and during Metropolitan Stakes.

GOLD GEAR, winner of Metropolitan Stakes twelve months ago, is my third choice. While he failed to hit the board in last four starts, it is obvious that 2,400m turf course at Tokyo is the most suitable track to show himself at his best.

WIN MIGHTY finished third in G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) at the same course and distance as this race in May 2020. While she has run poorly since then, she has not run at Tokyo and has not run a race over 2,400m since then. She may come to her senses and WIN MIGHTY is my fourth choice.

BOZZHIRA was put blinker for the first time in an open handicap at Hanshin on 10th April and performed much better than previous three starts, finished fourth. If he re-produces this form, I assess he has a good chance to finish in first five here. 

SELECTIONS: 9. WEISS METEOR, 6. FLY LIKE BIRD, 4. GOLD GEAR, 3. WIN MIGHTY & 7. BOZZHIRA

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 9. WEISS METEOR
Selections – 6. FLY LIKE BIRD, 4. GOLD GEAR, 3. WIN MIGHTY & 7. BOZZHIRA
S1-6:   
Banker – 1. MATENRO ORION
Selections – 4. SERIFOS, 18. DANON SCORPION, 2. SONNET PHRASE & 11. INDUSTRIA
 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. WEISS METEOR, 6. FLY LIKE BIRD & 4. GOLD GEAR
S1-6: Multiple – 1. MATENRO ORION, 4. SERIFOS & 18. DANON SCORPION
S1-7: Multiple – 9. ANNUNCIATION, 7. ECORO FALCON & 3. YONKU

S1-6 NHK Mile Cup

The NHK Mile Cup at Tokyo on 8th May is a 1,600m G1 on turf exclusively for 3YO colts and fillies.
 
My favourite is MATENRO ORION. I am impressed with his winning performance in G3 Shinzan Kinen at Chukyo on 9th January and thought this colt would be a strong contender for NHK Mile Cup. Although he was beaten second in G2 New Zealand Trophy at Nakayama on 9th April, failing to catch front-running JEAN GROS by head, it was a beautiful riding performance from Yutaka Take, who guided JEAN GROS smartly, and I am still convinced MATENRO ORION is a better horse than JEAN GROS. And he is by DAIWA MAJOR, who has produced three NHK Mile Cup winners.

SERIFOS, who finished second in G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes last December, is my second choice. DANON SCORPION, who finished third in G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, won G3 Arlington Cup at Hanshin on 16th April and GEOGLYPH, who finished fifth in G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, won G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama on 17th April subsequently, therefore, I understand we should regard the form of G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes highly. And he is also by DAIWA MAJOR, who has sent three NHK Mile Cup winners. Though he has not run since December, he returned from Champions Hill, private training facility near Ritto, to Mitsumasa Nakauchida’s barn in Ritto Training Centre on 1st April, and has been trained well there since then. I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.

DANON SCORPION, winner of G3 Arlington Cup at Hanshin on 16th April, is my third choice. While he was beaten 7th in G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 13th February, the distance, 1,800m, was too long for the colt by LORD KANALOA, and I am sure 1,600m is ideal for him.

My fourth choice is SONNET PHRASE, filly by EPIPHANEIA. Fillies are doing well in NHK Mile Cup, as six fillies finished within first two in last seven running of NHK Mile Cup. SONNET PHRASE has been regarded highly by her connections since she won maiden by three and a half lengths at Niigata in last August. She was beaten neck by SERIFOS in G2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes at Hanshin last November, when SERIFOS carried 121lbs and SONNET PHRASE carried 119lbs. In NHK Mile Cup, SERIFOS carries 126lbs, while SONNET PHRASE carries 121lbs, and armchair theory suggests the placing could be reversed. Though she had training setback and missed G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), she is trained well at Miho Training Centre recently and I am sure her condition is improving. 

INDUSTRIA, winner of the Listed Junior Cup at Nakayama on 5th January, is my fifth choice. Though he was beaten fifth in G2 Yayoi Sho at Nakayama on 6th March, wide trip all way through cost him. And I have a feeling that track at Tokyo suits him better than track at Nakayama.

SELECTIONS: 1. MATENRO ORION, 4. SERIFOS, 18. DANON SCORPION, 2. SONNET PHRASE & 11. INDUSTRIA

S1-7 Tachikawa Tokubetsu

Tachikawa Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two time winning 4YO and upper over 1,600m on dirt.

My favourite is ANNUNCIATION trained by Takahisa Tezuka. The 4YO colt by UNION RAGS graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama last September. Since then, he started at this class for three times and finished within first five in all of them. Although he was beaten fifth in the allowance race at Nakayama on 27th February last time out, he did not stand in barrier quietly and was left at poor position in the field. He was still able to finish fifth and I reckon it was a good effort. It is obvious that he likes track at Tokyo, where he started for six times, won once, finished second for four times, and finished third once. I believe he will show himself at his best on Sunday.

ECORO FALCON has run well at the class for two time winners, finishing second in an allowance race last November and third in allowance race on 5th February, both of which are races at same course and same distance as this race. Although the 4YO colt by HOKKO TARUMAE was beaten seventh in allowance race at Tokyo on 12th February last time out, this race came too soon after the previous start. Since then, he is refreshed and has been trained well at Miho Training Centre. ECORO FALCON is my second choice.

Michihiro Ogasa, trainer of YONKU, decided to put sheepskin cheek pieces on the 6YO horse by KANE HEKILI after he was well beaten in allowance race at Tokyo on 5th February. Since then, YONKU has been running consistently at this class, finishing within first three in the three allowance races at Nakayama. While YONKU has not won at Tokyo, he has finished second twice there and I believe this is suitable track for the closer who has strong late kick. YONKU is my third choice.      

Another consistent runner at this class in the field is DAIWA DONOVAN, who has finished within first four in last six starts. His morning track work at Miho Training Centre on 27th April was impressive and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. DAIWA DONOVAN is my fourth choice.

CLEAN SLATE finished fifth in G3 Unicorn Stakes over the same course and distance as this race in June 2021. Since then, the colt by DISCREET CAT finished within first four in four consecutive starts at this class. Although he was beaten sixth in allowance race at Tokyo on 12th February last time out, he did not like wet track. I believe he has a good chance to finish within the first five on Sunday. 

SELECTIONS: 9. ANNUNCIATION, 7. ECORO FALCON, 3. YONKU, 16. DAIWA DONOVAN & 12. CLEAN SLATE

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