Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Tokyo Racecourse – Track Analysis (NHK Mile Cup Day):

Tokyo Racecourse is an anti-clockwise oval track. Outer turf track is 2083.1m long, with 525.9m homestretch, which is the second longest in JRA's tracks after Niigata. Backstretch is 400m long. There are two chutes to set the stalls for races over 1800m and 2000m. The width of the course is the widest in JRA's tracks. The bend is gentle and it is described as "galloping course". While it is recognized in general that the true ability of runners reflects on the results, it is the tendency that the runners who are off the pace during former part of race and deliver strong challenge on homestretch make good showing at Tokyo Racecourse. Inner dirt track is 1899m long, with 501.6m homestretch, the highest point is from 200m before the finishing line to finishing line on the homestretch and the middle of the far turn to the top of homestretch is the lowest point of the course.

This year, four turf races and three dirt races from the NHK Mile Cup Day will be simulcast to Hong Kong.

The feature race, G1 NHK Mile Cup and Shonan Stakes are conducted at 1600m turf course. Starting gate is set at top of the backstretch and distance from starting gate to the entrance of far turn is 550m. Statistic proves there is no draw bias at all at this course. The distance from the exit of far turn to winning post is 525.9m. 160m long sharp rise, with difference in height of 2m, begins at around 400m to 300m from home. Final 300m is flat. It is analyzed that runners are required to have the stamina to stay 2000m at this course, while the actual distance is 1600m.

For the rest of turf races, the 2000m 4yo and up 1 win, the starting gate is set in one of the chutes. The first bend begins at only 130m from the starting gate. Wide draw is obviously a disadvantage at this course. Backstretch is 400m long and homestretch is 525.9m long. This is a tough course for front runners to make all, and the runners are required to accelerate sharply on homestretch to make good showing.

For the 2400m Metropolitan Stakes, it likes the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in May and G1 Japan Cup in November, which means this is the Championship course in Japan. Starting gate is set at 317m before the finishing line on homestretch and the distance from the starting gate to the beginning of near turn is 350m. Statistics prove that there is no draw bias at this course. While it is a fair track, where true ability of runners reflects on the result straightforwardly, runners are required both of speed and stamina. It is not easy to make all and sharp acceleration at the final part of race could be decisive factor at this course.

For the dirt races, the 1300m 4yo and up 1 win, starting gate is set at middle of backstretch, and distance from starting gate until entrance of far turn is 343m. Tempo at this course tends to be moderate. Distance from the exit of far turn to winning post is 501.6m. Sharp rise for 300m long,　with difference in height of 2.4m, begins at the top of homestretch. Final 200m of homestretch is flat. Speed is important at this course. Sprinters whose best trip is 1200m tend to enjoy better result than the runners whose best trip is 1400m. For the 1400m 4yo and up 2 wins, it travels the same route as 1300m. The only difference is the starting gate is set at early part of backstretch and distance from starting gate until entrance of far turn is 443m.

For the 1600m Tachikawa Tokubetsu, starting gate is set at turf course at the final part of near turn and runners run on turf for approximately 150m from starting gate. A runner who jumps from the widest draw run on turf for 30m longer than a runner who jumps from barrier one. Therefore, wide draw is preferable at this course. Distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 640m. The beginning 400m is slight downslope, and tempo tends to be fast at this course. Statistics show that it is more difficult to make all at this course than at 1300m or 1400m dirt course.

Last year's NHK Mile Cup was conducted on good ground. PIXIE KNIGHT played a role of pace setter, clocking 45.3 second at 800m and 56.9 second at 1000m, which are slightly faster than average tempo. GRENADIER GUARDS was settled at sixth position by Yuga Kawada on saddle, started to make progress at the end of far turn and hit the front at 400m out. SONGLINE, tracked leaders from seventh position, delivered strong challenge and hit the front at 200m. SCHNELL MEISTER, who was settled in midfield, makes up ground through homestretch, using brilliant acceleration. SONGLINE and SCHELL MEISTER hit the wire almost at the same time, and SCHNELL MEISTER was called as the winner after lengthy photo finished. GRENADIER GUARDS finished third.

While cloudy weather with little possibility of precipitation is forecasted at the area of Tokyo Racecourse before the raceday, the ground is expected to be good on the NHK Mile Cup Day this year.  

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