 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Oaks Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Woodcote Stakes
Woodcote Stakes is a race that has been won by several horses that have gone on to prove top-class, including multiple G1 winner PINATUBO.
LEGEND OF XANADU was very impressive when upped to 1,197m for the first time at Redcar, stretching over five and a half lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. That performance was backed up by the clock, and he ran the final 400m in 23.43s, a better closing time than many of his rivals have recorded. He also has plenty of experience in the context of this race, which will stand him in good stead at a course like Epsom, and he looks the most solid candidate here.
BLATANT and SELF PRAISE raced against each other at Chester over 1,014m at the beginning of May when the former was having his third start and had the advantage of an inside draw. However, despite coming from a wide draw and showing signs of greenness it was the Hugo Palmer-trained SELF PRAISE that came home ahead of his more experienced rival. While BLATANT has since won over 1,200m at Leicester, it’s the other colt that is expected to confirm the form over a trip that is sure to bring about more improvement, and now getting a weight concession.
Another colt that lined up in that Chester contest was Andrew Balding’s ESTATE but was never really sighted from a wide draw in stall 11. This son of SHOWCASING improved markedly upon that to finish second to COMMANDER STRAKER at Bath over 1,009m, when just lacking the change of gear necessary to beat his that more experienced rival. Horses from the Balding stable tend to improve plenty between each run and he might be able to reverse that form now, with the benefit of more experience and receiving weight, and can close the gap on his Chester rivals too.
Ralph Beckett’s filly KEEP BIDDING completes the shortlist after catching the eye on debut at Nottingham. She got stuck in a pocket behind runners on the rail and didn’t see any daylight until inside the final 200m, but from there she stuck on strongly under tender handling to finish second. Judging by the way she moved around on the run-in, this track might cause her a few problems, but she looks capable of plenty of improvement, and as a filly by RIBCHESTER – won over 1,200m to 1,600m – she is another certain to appreciate this step up in trip.
SELECTIONS: 3. LEGEND OF XANADU, 8. SELF PRAISE, 1. BLATANT, 4. ESTATE & 11. KEEP BIDDING
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 3. LEGEND OF XANADU
Selections – 8. SELF PRAISE, 1. BLATANT, 4. ESTATE & 11. KEEP BIDDING
S1-2:
Banker – 8. TOTALLY CHARMING
Selections – 10. CAROLUS MAGNUS, 7. OH THIS IS US, 1. EXCEL POWER & 12. SEASETT
S1-2 World Pool Handicap
One of the trickier puzzles to solve on the Friday at Epsom looks to be the 1,721m World Pool Handicap.
OH THIS IS US is a good place to start, with an honourable 86 starts under his belt, including four at Epsom.
12 months ago on the Derby Stakes Day he landed the G3 Diomed Stakes, also run over the same distance as this race, but hasn’t troubled the judge in 15 runs since. He’s plummeted down the handicap as a result, and now stands a chance of running back into the money at a track and trip that suits. His fast-finishing fourth over 1,515m at Chester last time out suggests both the fire still burns at the grand old age of nine and that he’ll appreciate the return to a slightly longer trip.
At the other end of the spectrum is TOTALLY CHARMING, who is having just his eighth career start and looks open to improvement. He’s won three races, two over 1,600m and one over 1,900m, so the distance should suit, though it’s almost all downhill from the 1,721m start at Epsom so there’s less emphasis on stamina. Still, he’s shown enough speed, particularly when quickening up nicely over 1,600m at Kempton in January, and has solid claims under championship-leading rider, William Buick.
EXCEL POWER is unbeaten in three starts over around 1,600m and is also a three-time winner over 1,200m, so the sharp nature of Epsom’s track should hold no fears. He made all the running and hit the line strongly when winning on his most recent start at Windsor over 1,628m, so you can see why trainer Archie Watson is happy to edge him up in trip. This will require him to take another step forward after a considerable rise in the handicap as a result of that Windsor effort, but there’s nothing to say he can’t do just that.
Though soundly beaten by LEGEND OF DUBAI on his most recent start, a 1,600m handicap at Newmarket, CAROLUS MAGNUS was in turn well clear of the rest of the field and his handicap mark remains unchanged. He’s a winner over 1,400m and 1,600m, while he chased home subsequent G3 winner JUST BEAUTIFUL as a 3YO. The Andrew Balding-trained 4YO looks open to improvement, with the only query being his ability to handle soft ground if conditions deteriorate, as he’s yet to race on anything softer than good.
If the ground does come up on the soft side, then SEASETT would be one to keep on side. Both of his wins have come with soft in the going description, while his mark remains unchanged for a good fifth in a competitive, big-field handicap at York last time out.
SELECTIONS: 8. TOTALLY CHARMING, 10. CAROLUS MAGNUS, 7. OH THIS IS US, 1. EXCEL POWER & 12. SEASETT
S1-3 Coronation Cup
There’s an impressive role of honour for the G1 Coronation Cup, with the likes of ST NICHOLAS ABBEY, CIRRUS DES AIGLES and CRACKSMAN winning the contest in the past.
PYLEDRIVER was the last horse to add his name to the esteemed list and he’s back to defend his crown. The 5YO doesn’t come into the race in quite the form he did 12 months ago, having finished down the field in Saudi Arabia over 2,100m and then in Dubai over 2,410m. Prior to that, though, he was a very good second in the G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m and a repeat of that run would surely see him involved.
Godolphin won this in 2020 with GHAIYYATH when the race was run at Newmarket and they’ll be confident about the chances of MANOBO this year. The son of SEA THE STARS has won five of his six career starts ranging from 2,000m up to 3,000m. He was a very impressive winner of the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy over 2,810m two starts back and although he was beaten in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200m most recently, that was probably over a trip that stretched his stamina. The last time he ran over this 2,400m distance he won a Listed Prix Turenne at Saint-Cloud by 10 lengths and he looks a leading player here.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record eight times, so his contenders always need respecting, and he saddles HIGH DEFINITION. The 4YO probably hasn’t progressed quite as much as connections would have hoped, particularly after he won the G2 Beresford Stakes over 1,600m in very taking fashion back in 2020. He hasn’t won since then, but he did run well in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m last time where he had five G1 winners behind him.
Trainer Owen Burrows has never won a G1, and he’ll be hoping HUKUM can be the horse to break his duck. Another progeny of SEA THE STARS, the 5YO has a consistent record having only finished outside the first three on three occasions from 14 starts. He has plenty of form in G3 and G2 company, most recently when just holding on to win the G2 Dubai City Of Gold over 2,410m, but did come up short on his only try in G1 company. That came in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m and he’ll need to step up on what he’s done so far to challenge the leading protagonists.
SELECTIONS: 4. MANOBO, 6. PYLEDRIVER, 2. HUKUM & 1. HIGH DEFINITION
S1-4 4yo+ Handicap
It’s difficult to ignore the claims of favourite MOKTASAAB in this competitive handicap. William Knight’s horse has improved dramatically this season – winning his two starts – and only had to be pushed out when scoring readily at Goodwood over 1,979m last time. He incurred a standard rise in the handicap for that performance, and that extra weight is unlikely to stop him winning again. One question mark is whether he will handle the unique undulating nature of Epsom, however, against several rivals that have good previous course experience.
SOTO SIZZLER thrives around this course and has won twice and placed three times from his five starts here. Last time out, David Menuisier’s 7YO stayed on strongly to win the 2,015m over this course in his last start, narrowly getting up by a neck at the line. He’s taken a fair rise in the handicap for that victory, which might stop him winning, but given his Epsom record he’s worth including in the first five.
Back in third behind SOTO SIZZLER was LOVE IS GOLDEN over 2,015m race at Epsom in April, but that doesn’t quite tell the whole story, as this horse was caught in a pocket down on the rail and consequently got left behind when his rivals quickened down the outside. That effort can be marked up and he looks to have good claims of turning the form around with a pull in the weights also in his favour. On his last start, he played his part in a driving three-way finish at York over 2,051m, running into two well-handicapped rivals but pulling well clear of the rest of the field. He still looks feasibly treated weights-wise, and while he might find something too good, he is well capable of hitting the frame.
CARADOC finished over one and a half length behind MOKTASAAB at Goodwood, but probably stayed on more strongly than the winner after coming from a less favourable position at the back of the field. A line can be drawn through his subsequent effort over an inadequate trip over 1,668m at Nottingham where he met interference in running. Ed Walker’s gelding should be happier back at this distance and remains capable of a big run.
VICTORY CHIME was disappointing on reappearance in Listed Festival Stakes at Goodwood over 1,979m two weeks ago and needs to improve on that. He has improved for his first run of the season before, though, and is another with strong form around Epsom, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him involved from a workable handicap mark.
SELECTIONS: 6. MOKTASAAB, 12. LOVE IS GOLDEN, 3. CARADOC, 1. VICTORY CHIME & 2. SOTO SIZZLER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 6. MOKTASAAB
Selections – 12. LOVE IS GOLDEN, 3. CARADOC, 1. VICTORY CHIME & 2. SOTO SIZZLER
S1-5:
Banker – 2. EMILY UPJOHN
Selections – 8. THOUGHTS OF JUNE, 10. TUESDAY, 5. NASHWA & 9. TRANQUIL LADY
S1-5 Oaks
There can only be one place to start when thinking about the G1 Oaks over 2,424m at Epsom and that is with EMILY UPJOHN. The John and Thady Gosden-trained filly has a profile that ticks all the right boxes in a race where trends are key. She comes into this on the back of a dominating victory in the G3 Musidora Stakes at York over 2,051m, the same race that last year’s victor, SNOWFALL, also claimed before taking this contest. Frankie Dettori will do the steering aboard the daughter of SEA THE STARS and the unbeaten filly looks likely to thrive for the step up in trip and should take plenty of beating. However, if there was one chink in her otherwise solid armour, it may be the ground.
If the surface does come up on the softer side, then THOUGHTS OF JUNE might be the one to take her on with. The Aidan O’Brien-trained filly won the Listed Cheshire Oaks Stakes over 2,268m at Chester last month on soft going and her handler has saddled five of the last seven winners. Being by G1 Derby Stakes winner GALILEO, and the fact she handled Chester so well, which is a good clue for how a runner will handle the undulations at Epsom, are a couple of big ticks.
Another of Aidan O’Brien’s runners worth a second look is TUESDAY, who filled the runner-up spot in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m less than two weeks ago. She bumped into one in that race when losing out to HOMELESS SONGS who put in a superb performance to claim the Irish Classic by five and a half lengths. She’s another who looks poised to improve for the step up in trip, so could be an interesting contender if those recent excursions haven’t taken their toll.
NASHWA took out a Listed event over 2,000m at Newbury when last seen. She is also trained by the Gosden team and will bid to make Hollie Doyle the first female jockey to land a British Classic. The daughter of FRANKEL has done nothing wrong in her two starts this season at Haydock over 1,593m and Newbury over 2,000m and she’s another who there is plenty more to come from.
Rounding out the selections is TRANQUIL LADY, this G3 Blue Wind Stakes over 2,000m winner is another to keep on side if the weather does arrive as she looked to appreciate the softer conditions on her last outing when winning by four lengths.
SELECTIONS: 2. EMILY UPJOHN, 8. THOUGHTS OF JUNE, 10. TUESDAY, 5. NASHWA & 9. TRANQUIL LADY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. EMILY UPJOHN, 8. THOUGHTS OF JUNE & 10. TUESDAY
S1-6: Multiple – 6. OSCULA, 2. DAWN OF LIBERATION & 3. EVER GIVEN
S1-7: Multiple – 1. SALEYMM, 2. DARKNESS & 7. ORBAAN
S1-6 Surrey Stakes
This 1,415m Listed race gives OSCULA an excellent chance to add a second Epsom win to her record. She was an impressive winner of the Woodcote Stakes over 1,200m at this meeting last year and that form worked out really well with the runner-up, FLAMING RIB, going on to win four times later in the season.
OSCULA has raced exclusively in Group races since that victory. She won a Deauville G3 over 1,400m on soft ground in August when beating subsequent G1 Prix Marcel Boussac winner ZELLIE. George Boughey sent her to the Saudi Cup meeting for her first run of the year but she just seemed to hate the dirt surface. Refreshed following a three-month break, she should be much happier returned to turf.
Well-bred DAWN OF LIBERATION was placed in good 1,400m maiden races last year. He kicked-off this season with a smooth Doncaster novice win over 1,405m when making all the running. A step up to 1,800m didn’t work out at Newmarket and he was much happier over 1,600m at Goodwood in April when too strong for TUSCAN. The return to 1,415m shouldn’t be a problem and he is likely to be out of trouble in a prominent position.
EVER GIVEN found trouble in the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m at Haydock two weeks ago. He won his only previous try at 1,400m when landing a competitive Chester juvenile handicap on rain-softened ground last season. The way he held his form over 1,200m later in the season, with wins at Goodwood and York, proves he has plenty of speed and that’s always needed around Epsom.
MIDHEAVEN was not disgraced on her first run on turf when fourth behind smart prospect HEREDIA over 1,400m at York two weeks ago. She had been impressive over 1,401m on Lingfield’s polytrack in December before returning from a five-month break to run race-fit ESPRESSOO to half-length over 1,400m at Chelmsford. She still has plenty of potential.
STAR FROM AFARHH beat subsequent Listed winner KAWIDA on her debut over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) last year. She failed to shine in two races later in the season and, given her pedigree, she surprisingly failed to see out 1,594m on her return to action at Ascot in April. Her trainer Andrew Balding is in much better form now so she is worth another chance.
SELECTIONS: 6. OSCULA, 2. DAWN OF LIBERATION, 3. EVER GIVEN, 5. MIDHEAVEN & 7. STAR FROM AFARHH
S1-7 3yo+ 81-100 Handicap
This 1,415m handicap looks an ideal race for SALEYMM. He’s run well in some hot handicaps this season, with is second behind JOHAN in the Lincoln over 1,600m, when he went from the front, was a great starting point. He bounced back from a below-par effort in the 1,600m handicap at Newbury when second behind the smart SHINE SO BRIGHT over 1,400m at Newmarket three weeks ago. This is a slight drop in grade and there’s a good chance he will like this unique course.
DARKNESS finished well beaten in the Lincoln but that was his first run after switching to excellent trainer David O’Meara from France. He has been gradually finding his form and he was unlucky not to finish closer than fifth in the competitive Victoria Cup over 1,400m at Ascot last month. There’s evidence to suggest he is well weighted as he was a Listed winner in France over 1,600m on soft ground when trained by Jean-Claude Rouget. This race should set up for his hold-up style and the ground looks perfect.
ORBAAN, also trained by David O’Meara, will appreciate the track conditions as well. He is another French import and, although he hasn’t won for nearly two years he looks to be running into form. Having settled at the rear of the field in the early stages of his most recent race over 1,575m at York, he was starting to make ground when he was repeatedly stopped by traffic problems. His placed efforts over 1,413m on soft ground at the end of last season suggest he’s very well weighted and he should be at his peak now.
LORD RAPSCALLION is another runner who looks nicely treated. He met trouble when fourth in this race last year and he went on to finish in the frame in some of the season’s top 1,400m handicaps. He was fourth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and he then finished third in Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup. A repeat of either of those two efforts would give him a great chance in this race.
ZIP is gradually coming to the boil after two starts this season. He came home well from the rear when fifth over 1,430m at Musselburgh in April and he’s had a nice break since that run. This race should set up better for him.
SELECTIONS: 1. SALEYMM, 2. DARKNESS, 7. ORBAAN, 11. LORD RAPSCALLION & 5. ZIP
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