Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S2)
S2-1 3yo 0-100 Handicap by Bill Esdaile
MR BIG STUFF deserves a change of fortune in this 2,015m handicap. He's yet to win a race but he looked unlucky not to finish much closer when fifth in the Newbury over 2,000m last month. Richard Spencer's runner found all the trouble going in the closing stages and he is clearly much better than the final result. That Newbury race has been one of the hottest handicaps run over 2,000m in recent years. It has been the launch pad to several future Group winners and this season's race looked well up to its usual high standard. Last year MR BIG STUFF finished third behind Derby favourite DESERT CROWN in a Nottingham maiden over 1,668m and also put in a good performance on the polytrack when second behind smart YONAFIS.
BLUE TRAIL looks to have plenty of improvement in him. He twice won over 1,600m on the polytrack before running a sound race when third behind progressive WANEES in a good 1,600m Sandown handicap on his turf debut. His pedigree suggests he will love the step up to 2,015m for the first time and Charlie Appleby looks to have a progressive colt on his hands.
SWILCAN BRIDGE was only run down close home by well-handicapped AL AZHAR over 1,979m at Goodwood in April. The front pair were clear of the rest so that form looks solid. Andrew Balding's runner proved he handles Epsom's twists and turns when third from a wide draw over 1,703m in mid-April. If he's allowed to set the pace he could make his light weight count.
NOLTON CROSS looked in need of his first run for four months, ran behind WAR HORSE over 1,990m at Sandown last month. That was also his first race on turf having landed a good novice race over 1,729m on Wolverhampton's tapeta in January. He looks to have a nice attitude and he is unexposed over this 2,015m distance.
WAR HORSE had race-fitness on his side when he won that 1,990m race at Sandown last month. The cheekpieces he wore for the first time seemed to do the trick and he could easily continue to improve. He is a likeable horse and he tends to run his race so he must have some sort of chance of continuing his progress.
SELECTIONS: 9. MR BIG STUFF, 4. BLUE TRAIL, 14. SWILCAN BRIDGE, 12. NOLTON CROSS & 7. WAR HORSE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-1:
Banker – 9. MR BIG STUFF
Selections – 4. BLUE TRAIL, 14. SWILCAN BRIDGE, 12. NOLTON CROSS & 7. WAR HORSE
S2-2:
Banker – 4. POTAPOVA
Selections – 1. BASHKIROVA, 3. MRS FITZHERBERT, 5. ROMAN MIST & 7. TECHNIQUE
S2-2 Princess Elizabeth Stakes by Bill Esdaile
Trainer William Haggas has his horses in a rich vein of form currently and looks to hold good claims of winning the 1,703m G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes with BASHKIROVA. The 4YO daughter of PIVOTAL begun her career with three straight wins over 1,600m to 1,668m at Nottingham, Newcastle and Newmarket before disappointing in the Listed Gillies Stakes over 2,039m at Doncaster. She might have been feeling the effects of three races in fairly quick succession there, while it looked as if the extra 400m stretched her stamina too. Haggas' contender then returned with a good second to MRS FITZHERBERT in the Listed Conqueror Stakes at Goodwood where she lost little in defeat, and she looks a solid contender here.
Many will think MRS FITZHERBERT will uphold the form with BASHKIROVA and there's plenty to suggest she will. Based on her win at Goodwood, she seems to be a totally different animal as a 4YO and could just be one who takes time to develop. Hughie Morrison's charge looks well worth a go at this G3 prize, though she wouldn't want the ground too slow.
In the same ownership as BASHKIROVA, POTAPOVA comes into this after a narrow defeat to ROMAN MIST in the Listed Snowdrop Stakes at Kempton over 1,600m. She was perhaps a touch unlucky there given she had to deliver her challenge late and widest of all, while ROMAN MIST enjoyed a dream journey through on the inside. POTAPOVA made up huge amounts of ground on the run-in and with a better passage at Epsom, there's plenty to suggest she'll turn the tables.
That's not to say ROMAN MIST isn't without a chance. Tom Ward's filly has improved markedly over the past year shooting up the weights, and capped off an impressive season last year with a second in the Listed Fleur De Lys Stakes at Lingfield over 1,601m where she had MRS FITZHERBERT, among others, in behind. This is probably her biggest test to date, but it's hard to say that there isn't more improvement to come.
TECHNIQUE could be the one to complete the placings. The daughter of MASTERCRAFTSMAN has only won once in her career so far – a 1,900m maiden at Wolverhampton – but she has some solid pieces of form to her name. Notably when second to the well-regarded ZEYAADAH in the G3 Hoppings Stakes at Newcastle last season. She's run well on both her starts at Epsom and could go well again if handling the drop back of distance.
SELECTIONS: 4. POTAPOVA, 1. BASHKIROVA, 3. MRS FITZHERBERT, 5. ROMAN MIST & 7. TECHNIQUE
S2-3 Diomed Stakes by Bill Esdaile
The obvious starting point in this G3 Diomed Stakes over 1,703m appears to be with MODERN NEWS, who bids for a hat-trick for connections who are dominating the big meetings this season. The Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Godolphin partnership have had the world at their feet this year and can add this G3 contest to their roll of honour with this son of SHAMARDAL. He comes into this on the back of two victories at Newbury and Windsor over around 1,600m with the latter being an impressive four-and-a-quarter-length win in Listed company. It looks like the use of the tongue tie was proving detrimental to the cause when applied twice early in the season and now removed he seems a rejuvenated animal.
Trainer Charlie Hills has enjoyed a very good start to 2022 and he'll be hoping his MUTASAABEQ can keep the purple patch going. The 4YO looked in good form when finishing a neck behind LIGHTS ON in a G2 event at Sandown over 1,600m back in April. He had no luck in running there when trying to find space for a run but when it did open up he powered on strongly and wasn't slowing down at the finish. Hills' contender was one of the leading contenders for last year's G1 2000 Guineas Stakes, so this is a well-regarded colt and he looks more than worth a go at this. The son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is still lightly raced for his age, so there could be more improvement to come, and he looks the biggest challenger to MODERN NEWS.
MEGALLAN took home a competitive G3 Sovereign Stakes over 1,600m at Salisbury last year with any number of winners in behind him. He was also by no means disgraced in the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes over 1,800m on his seasonal reappearance this term behind the smart MASTER OF THE SEAS, and while he was disappointing when last seen in the G2 Huxley Stakes at Chester over 2,064m, he has the ability to be involved.
Rounding out the selections is MODERN NEWS' stablemate ZAKOUSKI, who has been plying his trade out in Dubai so far this year. The Appleby-trained 6YO was a dominant winner of the G3 Ben Marshall Stakes over 1,600m when last seen on British shores and despite that being solid-enough form, he needs to put a below-par run in the G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m behind him.
SELECTIONS: 4. MODERN NEWS, 5. MUTASAABEQ, 3. MEGALLAN & 6. ZAKOUSKI
S2-4 'Dash' Handicap by Ben Cleminson
There's no faster 1,000m race in the world than the 'Dash' at Epsom. From the moment they jump out of the gates it's downhill the whole way bar the final 100m, and that's why STONE OF FOLCA's 53.69 seconds clocked in the 2012 renewal remains a world record. Though we're unlikely to see a record time this year due to slightly slower ground, it will still be blisteringly quick, and you need to find a real speedball to win this race.
KING OF STARS loves nothing more than to jump handy and go from the front. He's been a revelation since joining Michael Appleby's yard from Ireland, winning five races, all over this 1,000m trip, and then finishing fourth in a hot Listed level contest at Haydock over 1,000m last time out. From his draw in 20, right up on the stand's side, he should be able to get out early and tank along with the rail to help.
Of Adam West's two runners, LIVE IN THE DREAM looks to hold the stronger chance of giving the local Epsom trainer his biggest winner to date and, remarkably, his first ever win at his home track. It's rare for a 3YO to win or even run in this race, with the only winner coming back in 1995, but West clearly feels he's not pitching the son of PRINCE OF LIR in too deep. He arrives here looking for a third consecutive win, having come home in front my clear margins over around 1,000m at both Sandown and Chester. He's up in the weights again as a result, but looks a highly-progressive 3YO who could still have more to offer in handicaps, particularly while in receipt of a weight allowance from his older rivals.
FINE WINE has had a very busy winter but doesn't show any signs of tiring heading into the summer. He's finished in the first three in 10 of his 17 starts since October, including a taking victory over 1,000m at York last time out. Like KING OF STARS, he can be very sharp out of the gates and likes to get on with things out in front, which is often the way to do it over Epsom's 1,000m.
Last year, STONE OF DESTINY was very well-supported but failed to make up enough late ground to peg back MOKAATIL and had to settle for third. That was a fair effort when you consider he had to cut through traffic and shoulder top-weight. With a lot less weight on his back this year, he should be able to use his strong finishing kick to better effect.
The winner from 12 months ago, MOKAATIL, has won twice since, including over this course and distance in April and has to be respected. He was well held over 1,014m at Chester last time out, but he's three wins from four starts over Epsom's 1,000m and a return to the track may see him bounce back.
SELECTIONS: 3. KING OF STARS, 10. LIVE IN THE DREAM, 7. FINE WINE, 11. STONE OF DESTINY & 15. MOKAATIL
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 3. KING OF STARS
Selections – 10. LIVE IN THE DREAM, 7. FINE WINE, 11. STONE OF DESTINY & 15. MOKAATIL
S2-5:
Banker – 2. DESERT CROWN
Selections – 1. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, 9. NATIONS PRIDE, 14. STONE AGE & 10. PIZ BADILE
S2-5 Derby Stakes by Bill Esdaile
It's 12 years since Sir Michael Stoute claimed the most recent of his five Epsom Derby's but he may not have to wait too much longer as he fields favourite DESERT CROWN in this year's renewal. This son of NATHANIEL has looked hugely impressive in his two career starts to date, winning his maiden over 1,668m at the end of last season, before impressively taking the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m at York on reappearance last month. The two unknowns are the 2,405m trip and whether he will handle the undulations of Epsom. His pedigree suggests the first of those questions will be no issue, being by G1 2,400m winning sire NATHANIEL, and he hasn't shown any signs to suggest he won't take to Epsom. To win as he did at York suggests this colt has the potential to be top-class and he looks a worthy favourite in this line up.
One of the few trainers to have more Derby winners to their name than Stoute is Aidan O'Brien, who has saddled a record eight winners of the race. The pick of his trio this year could be CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD. After five career starts, he is one of the most experienced in the field and has looked steadily progressive this season, winning the G3 Chester Vase Stakes over 2,457m on his last start and beating a well-regarded rival in the process. His trainer often likes to run his better Derby prospects at Chester and won the Chester Vase with the subsequent Derby winner in 2013 with RULER OF THE WORLD. This GALILEO colt has proved he stays this 2,405m trip well, as well as the fact he can handle a variety of ground conditions. Given the way he kept up a relentless gallop at Chester, he could be a tough horse to pass if allowed to get to the font.
Another O'Brien runner of interest is STONE AGE, a ready winner of the G3 Derby Trial Stakes over 2,000m at Leopardstown. That looked a weak renewal though and is a race that hasn't produced a Derby winner since 2002.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has already won three Classics this season, one each in England, Ireland and France and has supplemented NATIONS PRIDE to run here. Having won four of his five career starts to date and with this step up in trip likely to bring about more improvement he is respected, but he hasn't quite shown the level of form needed to make him the main selection.
PIZ BADILE is trainer Donnacha O'Brien's first Derby runner and looks to hold an outside chance with Frankie Dettori booked to ride. He's taken to fill out the first five.
SELECTIONS: 2. DESERT CROWN, 1. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, 9. NATIONS PRIDE, 14. STONE AGE & 10. PIZ BADILE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 2. DESERT CROWN, 1. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD & 9. NATIONS PRIDE
S2-6: Multiple – 3. MIDNIGHTS LEGACY, 1. AADDEEY & 7. SOLENT GATEWAY
S2-7: Multiple – 11. MANY A STAR, 1. COMMANCHE FALLS & 10. NELSON GAY
S2-6 World Pool Northern Dancer Handicap by Bill Esdaile
Last year's winner MIDNIGHTS LEGACY has sound claims of retaining this 2,405m prize. He beat course specialist SOTO SIZZLER to win this race 12 months ago and he has since been twice successful over hurdles. His most recent run over jumps, when third over 3,177m in a good race at Plumpton, showed he is still in good form. The handicapper has been generous in dropping Alan King's runner in the weights after a couple of below-par runs on the polytrack and he returns to the flat in decent shape. His course form from last year's victory is a great help as not all horses take to Epsom's unique track.
AADDEEY ended last season with a battling victory over 2,379m on soft ground at Doncaster. He's got plenty of form on faster ground as well so he won't be bothered whatever happens with the weather on Saturday morning. He was poorly positioned following a slow start in a good 2,199m handicap on Kempton's polytrack on his return from a six-month break. That run should have put him spot on for this race and he has shown consistent form on turf.
SOLENT GATEWAY is at his best on turning tracks like Epsom. He won over 2,000m at this track on this day last year in a race that threw up plenty of good winners later in the season. Hugo Palmer's runner confirmed his liking for this course when he ran a cracker in finishing third behind GOING GONE and MASCAT in a prestigious handicap over 2,405m on his return to action this season. His most recent run when well beaten in the Chester Cup is not worth worrying about as he pulled way too hard over the much longer 3,727m distance.
MASCAT backed up his close second in the 2,405m handicap by running another sound race when third in a hot Ascot handicap over 2,392m last month. His trainer Joe Tizzard – better know for his jumps horses – has his team in sparkling form.
STATE OF BLISS ran one of his lesser efforts at Newmarket last time out but that was his fourth race in quick succession. He's had a nice break since and should have been freshened up. His earlier defeat of BOLLIN JOAN over 2,409m at Ripon has worked out really well.
SELECTIONS: 3. MIDNIGHTS LEGACY, 1. AADDEEY, 7. SOLENT GATEWAY, 8. MASCAT & 6. STATE OF BLISS
S2-7 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap by Bill Esdaile
Epsom's 1,200m course is sharp and downhill, meaning it often pays to race close to the pace.
MANY A STAR can race prominently and has looked progressive this season, placing twice and most recently winning with plenty in hand at Ascot over 1,200m. Despite racing keenly and chasing a slow pace, Paul & Oliver Cole's 5YO showed a bright turn of foot to pull nearly three lengths clear of his rivals without being fully extended. A rise in the weights and a step up in class means this asks a lot more of him, but he looks to have further improvement in him. A close third-placed finish at Goodwood, another downhill 1,200m track, bodes well for him taking to Epsom.
COMMANCHE FALLS developed into a high-quality handicapper last season, highlighted by him winning the valuable Stewards' Cup at Goodwood over 1,200m. He should be highly competitive here off a handicap rating that is only marginally higher, especially if he can progress from his encouraging reappearance run at Doncaster over 1,202m in April. If the ground remains on the softer side of good that should enhance his chances.
This race appears to have been the target for NELSON GAY for some time, as he hasn't been seen since getting outpaced and then hitting the line well to finish fourth over 1,000m at Epsom in April. Richard Hughes' gelding did get caught behind runners at a crucial stage there too, so might have finished closer with a clear run. At a sharp track like this he looks sure to be suited to the return to 1,203m and, if getting a strong pace to aim at, he is another that can make his presence felt in the closing stages.
David O'Meara's MUSCIKA has fallen to a rating below his last winning one and could be a lively outsider. He has Epsom form to his name after finishing a close runner-up over course and distance last season under Silvestre de Sousa, who is back in the saddle now.
REGIONAL is another worthy of some interest, after producing a series of consistent performances in good handicaps last season. Edward Bethell's gelding is still lightly raced after only eight career starts, and has only finished out of the frame on one occasion in five races since making the switch from Richard Fahey's yard. Most recently he placed second in a valuable sprint at Doha in Qatar in February, and if ready to go back from a break he could be involved in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 11. MANY A STAR, 1. COMMANCHE FALLS, 10. NELSON GAY, 14. MUSCIKA & 2. REGIONAL
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