 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales's Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Queen Mary Stakes
The Wednesday at Royal Ascot blasts off with the blisteringly quick 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes.
American handler Wesley Ward has dominated this race in recent years, saddling the first or second home in six of the last seven renewals. It's a truly remarkable record and his LOVE REIGNS, a wide-margin winner of a 1,100m maiden at Keeneland on her only start, has to be respected this year. Though inexperienced and only used to running around a bend in the US, she hit the line strongly over 1,100m and that would give you confidence that she won't burn out early over Ascot's straight and stiff 1,000m. It would be no surprise to see her follow in the footsteps of Ward's former race winners.
Trainer Karl Burke has been doing very well with his 2YOs so far this season and you couldn't help but be impressed with DRAMATISED's debut over 1,000m at Newmarket in April. Not only did she streak clear of her rivals by four lengths and looked to have plenty more in reserve, the runner-up has gone on to win two consecutive races and the fourth-placed horse has also gone on to break her maiden. With the normal amount of improvement expected from first to second runs, Burke's filly could be the one to lead them home.
With a host of unbeaten and unexposed 2YO fillies, it's hard to be overly confident on a single selection, though, and the likes of KATEY KONTENT and MARIA BRANWELL could also turn out to be the best of the bunch. The former boasts two wins from two starts and hails from Clive Cox's yard that does well in this meeting's juvenile contests. While her debut win, over 1,000m at Salisbury, was a bit more workmanlike, she looked to have improved plenty on her second start when bounding clear by four and a quarter lengths over 1,019m at Windsor. She looks to be a fast-improver and could make the frame.
MARIA BRANWELL, also two from two, battled on well to win the Listed National Stakes over 1,009m by a neck at Sandown last time out, beating a well-regarded colt in the shape of CRISPY CAT. That form sets a pretty good standard, and she has to be respected, although she's yet to encounter ground with firm in the going description.
Of the Irish contenders, OLIVIA MARALDA aims to give owners Amo Racing, in partnership with Brazilian footballer Phillipe Coutinho, their biggest win to date. She couldn't quite stick with STATUETTE when second over 1,147m at Navan last time out, but the winner looks a top-class filly who's well-fancied for Friday's 1,200m G3 Albany Stakes.
SELECTIONS: 3. DRAMATISED, 10. LOVE REIGNS, 6. KATEY KONTENT, 12. MARIA BRANWELL & 15. OLIVIA MARALDA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-1:
Banker – 3. DRAMATISED
Selections – 10. LOVE REIGNS, 6. KATEY KONTENT, 12. MARIA BRANWELL & 15. OLIVIA MARALDA
S2-2:
Banker – 4. ELDAR ELDAROV
Selections – 7. NAHANNI, 6. HAFIT, 3. BALTIC BIRD & 1. AL QAREEM
S2-2 Queen's Vase
The G2 Queen's Vase over 2,841m is often won by a horse with bundles of improvement in them and that looks very much the case with ELDAR ELDAROV. Roger Varian's impeccably bred 3YO has been very impressive in his two starts so far at Nottingham over 1,668m and Newcastle over 2,038m. The form of that Newcastle win got a big boost when the third, HONITON, won by nine lengths recently, so ELDAR ELDAROV looks a colt of serious potential.
After winning last year's race, Godolphin look to hold a strong hand of going back-to-back with both HAFIT and NAHANNI. HAFIT is another very well-bred colt but, given his pedigree, he perhaps hasn't quite done what was hoped so far. He won on debut at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,400m but hasn't won since, although he hasn't finished outside of the first three in four subsequent starts. The most recent of those came in a Listed contest over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp where he ran respectably to finish third. He'll need to improve to win this, but there could easily be more to come.
Stablemate NAHANNI has won three of his five career starts, including the Listed Blue Riband Trial at Epsom over 2,015m. He was tried in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m next time and although he never featured, he didn't break well and was never in the right place on the track. Charlie Appleby's colt plugged on well, though, and this greater test of stamina might just be what he's looking for.
This is a big step up in class for AL QAREEM but this progressive type merits consideration. He's been playing his trade in handicaps this season, two of which he's won at Nottingham over 2,045m and most recently at York over 2,371m. As mentioned, this rise to G2 level is a big one, but he saw the trip out really well at York, so this extra should hold no fears.
BALTIC BIRD is another contender whose chances are largely taken on potential. The Frankie Dettori-ridden 3YO finished a long way behind NAHANNI on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 2,363m but has run much better in two starts since. He was a taking winner of a Yarmouth maiden over 2,295m last time where he looked to have plenty more in the tank. It's interesting his powerful connections pitch him in here rather than in a handicap, and there's plenty to suggest the extra distance of this race will bring about more improvement too.
SELECTIONS: 4. ELDAR ELDAROV, 7. NAHANNI, 6. HAFIT, 3. BALTIC BIRD & 1. AL QAREEM
S2-3 Prince of Wales's Stakes
Day two's feature race is the G1 Prince of Wales's Stakes over 2,003m, a contest that has been won four times – twice in recent years – by trainer Sir Michael Stoute. POET'S WORD and CRYSTAL OCEAN produced brilliant performances to win in 2018 and 2019 respectively. He could have another horse capable of something a bit special in BAY BRIDGE.
BAY BRIDGE has been relatively quick to rise through the ranks, winning two handicaps last season over 2,000m and 2,051m before stepping up to win in Listed company at Newmarket in October over 2,000m. However, he posted by far his best performance of his career on reappearance in the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 1,990m at Sandown, pulling five lengths clear of some strong rivals, and with more improvement likely, he looks the one to beat.
Japanese horses have carried all before them at the big international carnivals in the last 12 months and SHAHRYAR looks to have a strong chance of giving Japan a first Royal Ascot winner. The Hideaki Fujiwara-trained 4YO stayed on strongly to win the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m at Meydan in March and the form of that race is working out very well. While this son of DEEP IMPACT has won over 1,800m in Japan, he looks better over a longer trip so dropping back in distance on forecast quick ground is perhaps a slight negative.
French mare GRAND GLORY has form that ties in with SHAHRYAR when finishing only a length-and-a-half behind that rival in the G1 Japan Cup over 2,400m in November last year. That was only her second attempt at a 2,400m trip and while she looked to stay on reasonably well, 2,003m at a stiff track like Ascot should be ideal. Two wins this season, in Listed over 2,100m and G3 over 2,000m, have shown her in a good light but she will need to pull out more to win this now taking on the colts again.
STATE OF REST returned this season with a win in the G1 Prix Ganay over 2,100m at ParisLongchamp, but then wasn't suited by a slowly run race when trying to come from the rear of the field in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m at the Curragh. A stronger gallop isn't a certainty here, with no clear pacemakers, and he might face a similar scenario to last time.
SELECTIONS: 1. BAY BRIDGE, 3. SHAHRYAR, 5. GRAND GLORY & 4. STATE OF REST
S2-4 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
The 1,600m Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, a G2 race for fillies and mares, looks an ideal opportunity for BASHKIROVA to take another step up the ladder. She only made her debut last August and has rapidly developed into a smart filly. After a winning debut over 1,700m at Nottingham, she rattled up a hat-trick of victories with wins over the 1,605m and 1,600m distance on Newcastle's tapeta track and at Newmarket. William Haggas' filly looked in need of her first start of the season when narrowly beaten over 1,600m in a Goodwood Listed race. She had clearly improved for that run when putting in a strong performance to beat POTAPOVA in the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 1,703m at Epsom on Derby Stakes Day. We still haven't seen the best of her.
SAFFRON BEACH ended last season very strongly. After a smooth victory in the G3 Atalanta Stakes over 1,600m at Sandown, she made all the running to beat MOTHER EARTH in great style to land the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket. There was nothing wrong with her fourth in the 1,800m G1 Dubai Turf at Meydan in March and she's been given a nice break since.
French raider SIBILA SPAIN wasn't beaten far from a poor draw when fourth in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly last summer. She stepped up on her comeback run when swooping late to land a G2 over 1,600m at Saint-Cloud in May. Despite racing on soft ground for much of her career, she seems just as good on a faster surface.
MOTHER EARTH got a very good ride from Frankie Dettori to land the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket early last season. She was consistent in G1 1,600m races later in the season and made a winning return this year in a Curragh G3 over 1,600m before finishing only seventh behind unbeaten BAAEED in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket. This easier grade will help.
PRIMO BACIO finished last behind MRS FITZHERBERT and BASHKIROVA in a Listed race over 1,600m at Goodwood in April on her first run of the season. The steady early pace didn't suit her that day and she should get a faster gallop to aim at this time.
SELECTIONS: 3. BASHKIROVA, 1. SAFFRON BEACH, 2. SIBILA SPAIN, 5. MOTHER EARTH & 7. PRIMO BACIO
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)
Traditionally one of the hardest puzzles of the entire five days to solve, this year's renewal of the 1,600m Royal Hunt Cup looks no different.
Trainer Charles Hills won this race in 2019 with AFAAK and he looks to have another strong chance with DARK SHIFT. The son of DARK ANGEL has won five of his 10 career starts, three of which have come at Ascot. The most recent of those came at the end of last season over course and distance and you can ignore his first run of the season there as he was drawn on the wrong side of the track. He won well at Nottingham over 1,668m last time and still looks well-handicapped.
ASTRO KING looks another who is worthy of strong consideration. Sir Michael Stoute's 5YO was well-fancied for this contest last year and ran a great race to finish second to a future Group horse in REAL WORLD. He hasn't done too much since, but this race has clearly been the plan for a while and he had a nice pipe opener at Thirsk over 1,598m to get ready for it. Stoute is a master at improving these horses and his son of KINGMAN is hard to dismiss.
If there's one to throw in a massive price, then it's Clive Cox's ARATUS. He won all three of his starts as a 3YO over 1,400m and while he was disappointing in the Listed company at Leicester over 1,400m on his seasonal reappearance, he made good headway towards the finish in Ascot's Victoria Cup over 1,400m last time. That suggested this 1,600m trip would suit and he could easily outrun his odds.
Godolphin-owned runners must always be respected at the Royal meeting and their DESERT PEACE looks interesting. This will be the 5YO's first outing in the UK since June 2020 where he won a 1,600m Kempton handicap. He's been a solid campaigner since, mostly at Meydan where he's won twice over 1,600m and 2,000m. Charlie Appleby's gelding was a little disappointing last time, but his connections mean he needs to be taken seriously.
The final one to throw into the mix is George Boughey's TOTALLY CHARMING. He's won three of his five starts since joining the up-and-coming trainer, including a taking performance in a competitive Epsom handicap last time over 1,703m. Frankie Dettori has been booked and that's often a tip in itself.
SELECTIONS: 27. DARK SHIFT, 9. ASTRO KING, 13. ARATUS, 15. DESERT PEACE & 26. TOTALLY CHARMING
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 27. DARK SHIFT
Selections – 9. ASTRO KING, 13. ARATUS, 15. DESERT PEACE & 26. TOTALLY CHARMING
S2-6:
Banker – 12. LITTLE BIG BEAR
Selections – 2. CHATEAU, 6. FAR SHOT, 1. BOLT ACTION & 17. SEISMIC SPIRIT
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 27. DARK SHIFT, 9. ASTRO KING & 13. ARATUS
S2-6: Multiple – 12. LITTLE BIG BEAR, 2. CHATEAU & 6. FAR SHOT
S2-7: Multiple – 6. WHITE MOONLIGHT, 12. MOBADRA & 17. HAZIYA
S2-6 Windsor Castle Stakes
Whenever set a 2YO puzzle to solve at Royal Ascot, the best place to start is with Aidan O'Brien. He has won all three of the juvenile colts races at the meeting on multiple occasions, and in LITTLE BIG BEAR he has another major contender.
LITTLE BIG BEAR, who is apparently high up in the Ballydoyle pecking order, did everything right on his debut at the Curragh over 1,200m, showing bags of early pace. However, in a head-bobbing finish he was just touched off by TOUGH TALK on the line. Dropped to 1,000m at Naas last month, this big, strapping colt travelled strongly in behind in what was a fast-run race, and he picked up well when asked to go and seal the prize. You had to be impressed with his professional attitude and he beat a colt who Joseph O'Brien rates highly.
It's always worth following a stable in form, and Andrew Balding, who took this prize two years ago, has been racking up the winners in June. He runs CHATEAU, who met traffic problems when finishing third first time out at Salisbury over 1,000m. CHATEAU made no mistake next time at Beverley over 1,000m, wearing down a previous winner, and it is significant that William Buick has opted to ride the HAVANA GOLD colt again.
Six years ago, John Gosden brought ARDAD straight from a debut success at Yarmouth to win this Listed race the following week. Now John & Thady Gosden have chosen the same path for FAR SHOT, a breeze-up purchase who clearly knew his job on the seaside course. He had to work hard to justify strong support but looked above average.
BOLT ACTION, another bought at the Breeze-Up Sales in April, was primed for action first time at Leicester over 1,000m. He had a short, sharp scrap with the odds-on favourite but quickly accelerated away, winning by four lengths.
We can never rule out American trainer Wesley Ward at this meeting. And, while SEISMIC SPIRIT may not the best youngster he has brought over, he did show blinding speed on his one run so far on the turf at Churchill Downs. The hot favourite had the edge in experience and just mugged him on the line, but SEISMIC SPIRIT will relish this fast ground and might take some catching.
SELECTIONS: 12. LITTLE BIG BEAR, 2. CHATEAU, 6. FAR SHOT, 1. BOLT ACTION & 17. SEISMIC SPIRIT
S2-7 Kensington Palace Stakes (Handicap)
One-time Classic hope WHITE MOONLIGHT has the class to land the 1,598m Kensington Palace Stakes. She looked to be heading for the top when twice winning as a 2YO in 2019. Her debut win over 1,400m on Kempton's polytrack worked out well and she was impressive in landing a good 1,600m Newmarket novice race under a penalty. She's clearly suffered problems, as she wasn't seen again until her promising comeback over 2,000m at Chelmsford two weeks ago, and it says a lot that Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor has persevered with her.
MOBADRA hasn't run since November but that isn't a negative. Roger Varian's filly won on her first start of last season following a seven-month break when landing a 1,593m Haydock novice contest on fast ground. She also ended last year with a win when successful over 1,400m on Kempton's polytrack and she will be suited by the return to this slightly longer distance. There are plenty of reasons to think this unexposed filly is well treated on just her third handicap start.
HAZIYA has shown improved form this season. She made the switch to Joseph O'Brien from Michael Halford before winning on debut for her new trainer with a smooth victory in a 1,600m Leopardstown handicap. Her third behind CELTIC CROWN over 1,600m at the Curragh last month was another solid effort and this niece of Derby winner HARZAND still appears to have plenty more to offer.
FFION has another crack at this race having finished runner-up behind stablemate LOLA SHOWGIRL in it months ago. She was remarkably consistent later in the season and made a winning return to action on her first start of this year when successful over 1,401m at Chester in May. That was an excellent performance as she had to overcome a poor draw and traffic problems before hitting the front close to the finish.
SPIRIT OF THE BAY rattled up four wins in a row last season. All those victories came over 1,600m and she has returned in good form this year. She was a little unlucky when narrowly failing to catch SOFT WHISPER in a 1,600m fillies' handicap at Ascot last month. This race should set up much better for her as she is at her best in strongly run races.
SELECTIONS: 6. WHITE MOONLIGHT, 12. MOBADRA, 17. HAZIYA, 11. FFION & 16. SPIRIT OF THE BAY
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