 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Norfolk Stakes
There are a few runners in the G2 Norfolk Stakes at 1,000m putting their unbeaten records on the line, but heading the selections is one that doesn’t fit in that category.
WALBANK finished second when making his racecourse debut at Ascot last month over 1,000m, which has turned out to be a smart bit of form. The third and fourth that day followed up when next seen, and WALBANK went on to take his next race at York by seven lengths. Staying on strongly that day, it would be no surprise to see the stiff 1,000m at Ascot play to the son of KODIAC’s strengths and bring out further improvement.
BRAVE NATION won well over 1,003m on debut at Doncaster where the son of SIOUX NATION looked to really enjoy the lighting fast conditions. He was incredibly keen before hanging towards the rail, but from there he picked up the bridle and kicked on powerfully. He could be a hot prospect if learning from the experience.
Following him home might be BAKEEL. The Andrew Balding-trained colt was impressive on his debut over course and distance earlier in the season, getting the hang of things close home. The third home that day franked the form when winning next time out, but there might be more to come from BAKEEL with the fast pace likely to play to his advantage.
Aidan O’Brien needs one more winner of this race to be the joint leading trainer and he is represented by THE ANTARCTIC. This son of DARK ANGEL is unbeaten so far in his two starts that both at 1,000m and crosses the Irish Sea for the first time. However, he has been made to work quite hard in both of his previous starts and it remains to be seen how much he will relish the test of Ascot’s 1,000m.
CRISPY CAT rounds off the selections for trainer Michael O’Callaghan after finishing runner-up the last twice, both at Listed level, after a winning debut. The son of ARDAD should run well and could improve for the quicker underfoot conditions.
SELECTIONS: 10. WALBANK, 2. BRAVE NATION, 1. BAKEEL, 7. THE ANTARCTIC & 3. CRISPY CAT
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 10. WALBANK
Selections – 2. BRAVE NATION, 1. BAKEEL, 7. THE ANTARCTIC & 3. CRISPY CAT
S1-2:
Banker – 12. NEWFOUNDLAND
Selections – 5. SECRET STATE, 3. ISRAR, 10. SURREY MIST & 16. INVERNESS
S1-2 King George V Stakes (Handicap)
This is a handicap that is often won by a Group horse in the making, as was the case in 2020 when G1 winner HUKUM strode to victory, with subsequent Gold Cup hero SUBJECTIVIST back in third.
In the same Shadwell colours as the winner two years ago, is ISRAR, winner of the London Gold Cup over 2,000m at Newbury when last seen, a race that traditionally produces strong form. John & Thady Gosden’s colt took a while to pick up when asked to quicken but was seen doing his best work at the end, which suggests that this step up in trip to 2,392m should suit him well.
Only half-a-length behind him there was SURREY MIST and there looks to be little between them once again, as both horses came from similar positions in the field at Newbury. SURREY MIST does now have a very slender weight advantage compared to their last meeting but that still might not be enough to turn the form around.
One horse that looks to be attractively handicapped is Aidan O’Brien’s NEWFOUNDLAND. This son of DEEP IMPACT has had four starts already this season, winning on the last occasion at Navan over 2,600m, confirming his stamina but also showing a bright turn of foot. He had to be patient as he was caught behind horses 400m out, but once switched outside by Ryan Moore he quickened smartly under hands-and-heels riding. There should be plenty more improvement to come.
Godolphin’s SECRET STATE is a well-bred son of DUBAWI out of excellent dam JAQUELINE QUEST. He may well have been beaten by a very smart rival on debut at Newmarket over 1,600m but made amends by winning when upped in trip to 2,064m at Chester. Interestingly, Charlie Appleby then dropped him back to 1,668m at Nottingham where he won in spite of the trip being on the short side and carrying a penalty.
The rival he beat that day has since gone on to win off an opening handicap mark not dissimilar to SECRET STATE’s, which suggests he could be well treated on his handicap debut here. Now up in trip to a distance that is likely to bring about more improvement, he looks a very strong contender.
INVERNESS was thought good enough to contest the Listed Blue Riband Derby Trial over 2,015m at Epsom but looked uncomfortable on the undulations at the Surrey course. Despite that he was seen keeping on well at the finish and judging by the strength of that race he could be reasonably well treated on his first handicap start.
SELECTIONS: 12. NEWFOUNDLAND, 5. SECRET STATE, 3. ISRAR, 10. SURREY MIST & 16. INVERNESS
S1-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
A select field of six look to claim the meeting’s premier middle-distance race for 3YO fillies, the 2,392m G2 Ribblesdale Stakes. John Gosden has won four of the last five renewals of this race, and looked to have another outstanding chance with EMILY UPJOHN this year, but her absence has left things wide-open.
Recent Listed Height of Fashion Stakes at 1,979m winner, SEA SILK ROAD, is expected to take a good step forward and looks sure to appreciate the extra distance. The daughter of Derby winner SEA THE STARS stayed on strongly to win at Goodwood, a performance that had her immediately earmarked for this contest. If there’s a concern it would be the fast ground, as she’s unraced on anything quicker than good, and her most recent win came with plenty of cut underfoot.
MUKADDAMAH is another who is open to improvement over this 2,392m trip, and quick ground will suit, but she needs to take a sizable step forward to get involved. She was staying on well over 2,000m in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury last time out, and the form has been franked by the winner, NASHWA, who went on to finish a good third in the 2,424m G1 Oaks.
Unlike MUKKADAMAH and SEA SILK ROAD, the Aidan O’Brien-trained HISTORY is unproven over further than 1,600m. She won nicely over that distance in the G3 race at Leopardstown, and O’Brien was then convinced she had the speed and class to compete in the 1,600m Irish 1000 Guineas, but could only finish seventh. Whether she’ll see out the 2,392m trip is a big unknown, but she’s by superstar middle-distance sire GALILEO and it would be foolish to ignore her.
Charlie Appleby’s LIFE OF DREAMS, who was last seen chasing home Oaks runner-up EMILY UPJOHN in the 2,051m G3 Musidora Stakes, can round off the top four. EMILY UPJOHN would have been a red-hot favourite for this race if lining up, and though LIFE OF DREAMS finished five-and-a-half lengths behind her at York, it’s still a solid piece of form. If there’s a question mark against her, it’s the quick ground. The Musidora Stakes was run on the slower side of good and her debut suggested she’d be more at home on a softer surface, so that does leave a question mark.
SELECTIONS: 6. SEA SILK ROAD, 1. HISTORY, 4. MUKADDAMAH & 2. LIFE OF DREAMS
S1-4 Gold Cup
There are no young stayers as exciting as KYPRIOS and he looks to have an excellent chance of winning the Gold Cup. Aidan O’Brien has won this historic 3,991m prize a record seven times and he looks to have another potential star on his hands. KYPRIOS was withdrawn after getting upset in the stalls ahead of the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last year, but he has developed into a top-class performer this season. He put in a stunning performance when sauntering to a 14-length victory over 2,800m at Leopardstown last month. That wasn’t a strong G3 race, but the manner of victory was so impressive.
STRADIVARIUS is one of the great stayers. He has won this prize three times and found all sorts of traffic problems when attempting to secure a record-equalling fourth victory last year. All his old class was on display when he landed last month’s G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m. That distance is on the short side and he is sure to be better suited by this marathon 3,991m distance. His big rival TRUESHAN has been declared to run but the fast ground puts his participation in doubt.
PRINCESS ZOE proved she handles a quicker surface when staying on into second behind SUBJECTIVIST in this race last year. She underlined her ability to cope with the conditions when she landed the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m at Ascot in April. It was a typically battling victory and this popular Irish-trained mare is sure to be staying on when others have run out of stamina.
MOJO STAR only has one victory to his name but there’s no doubting his class having finished runner-up in two Classics last season. He was second behind ADAYAR in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom last year and filled the same position behind HURRICANE LANE in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m at Doncaster. Richard Hannon’s runner has not been seen since finishing down the field in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp in October but he definitely has potential as a stayer.
French raider BUBBLE SMART improved rapidly last season. She completed a hat-trick of wins by landing a G3 over 3,100m at ParisLongchamp in September before finishing third behind TRUESHAN in the G1 Prix Du Cadran over 4,000m the following month. This extreme test of stamina is just what she wants.
SELECTIONS: 5. KYPRIOS, 3. STRADIVARIUS, 10. PRINCESS ZOE, 6. MOJO STAR & 8. BUBBLE SMART
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 5. KYPRIOS
Selections – 3. STRADIVARIUS, 10. PRINCESS ZOE, 6. MOJO STAR & 8. BUBBLE SMART
S1-5:
Banker – 6. WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU
Selections – 20. ATRIUM, 23. WANEES, 18. KING OF TIME & 19. YONAFIS
S1-5 Britannia Stakes (Handicap)
Another of the Royal Ascot handicaps that is incredibly tricky to find the winner of, the 1,600m Britannia Stakes looks a wide-open affair. There are several in here with appealing profiles and it’s almost certain that plenty will be running in much better company than this in the future.
Given he is four from four, WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU looks a solid place to start. He won both starts as a 2YO over 1,200m and has continued his progression this term with wins over 1,400m at Newbury and then at Haydock over 1,634m.
The son of TWILIGHT SON was impressive last time making up ground in eye-catching fashion and beat a well-regarded Clive Cox colt in the process.
Trainer Charles Hills has his string in good form this term and his WANEES should go well here. This will be just the fifth start of his career but he’s a progressive type who has won his last three. Two of those came over 1,400m and 1,394m, but he showed he had the stamina for 200m further when winning over 1,600m at Sandown last time and there’s surely more to come.
Another unbeaten contender is KING OF TIME. The Charlie Appleby-trained 3YO has won all three races he’s run in so far, including a nice performance at Newmarket over 1,600m last time. He took a bit of time to get into full gear there, but got the job done nicely in the end and he’s another with untapped potential.
ATRIUM has won both his starts at Ascot and the manner of those victories, particularly last time over 1,600m, has shown he’s a horse on the upgrade. He won really well and striding away from his opposition in the style of a good horse and although he’s up in the weights and this is a better race, he has to be considered here.
The difficulty of this race is shown by the fact that I’m going to recommend another unbeaten contender as my final selection. YONAFIS is a perfect three from three so far in his career, all of which have come on the polytrack or tepeta over 1,600m to 1,729m. William Haggas’ colt quickened up nicely on his most recent outing at Wolverhampton and he could be dangerous off a fairly similar mark. He does have to prove he’s as good on turf, though.
SELECTIONS: 6. WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU, 20. ATRIUM, 23. WANEES, 18. KING OF TIME & 19. YONAFIS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. WHOPUTFIFTYINYOU, 20. ATRIUM & 23. WANEES
S1-6: Multiple – 6. REACH FOR THE MOON, 1. CLAYMORE & 2. CRESTA
S1-7: Multiple – 18. CHIEFOFCHIEFS, 15. MONTASSIB & 7. VAFORTINO
S1-6 Hampton Court Stakes
Success for The Queen’s REACH FOR THE MOON would undoubtedly be the most popular result of the week, and the favourite certainly ticks all the right boxes. Maybe trainers are frightened that beating the Royal runner in Platinum Jubilee year might affect their potential prospects of a future knighthood, but top opposition has dried up considerably.
On form, REACH FOR THE MOON has outstanding claims. He has never finished out of the first two in six races and was only just denied by the smart POINT LONSDALE in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at the Royal Ascot week last year. Two easy wins followed, at Newbury over 1,400m and then impressively in the G3 Solario Stakes over 1,400m at Sandown, where he showed a stunning gear-change. REACH FOR THE MOON was then surprisingly beaten, albeit narrowly, at short odds in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster over 1,405m, where John Gosden felt that the soft ground blunted his speed. However, REACH FOR THE MOON, though slow to come to hand in the spring, made a pleasing return when runner-up to the race-fit MY PROSPERO in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown over 1,600m in May. That fuelled dreams of a long-awaited Derby success for Her Majesty, but Gosden felt Ascot would suit REACH FOR THE MOON better than Epsom, and recent gallops reports have been encouraging.
CLAYMORE comes from a small yard. His second to NATIVE TRAIL over 1,600m in the G3 Craven Stakes at Newmarket was no surprise to his trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam, who rates the colt highly. She has also put a line through CLAYMORE’s subsequent flop in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains over 1,600m as he could never land a blow from the outside draw.
CRESTA showed promise last year and also ran well in two Derby trials in the spring, the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket and the Listed Dee Stakes over 2,064m at Chester. He changed hands at the Goffs London Sale on Monday and this is his UK farewell before he leaves for Hong Kong.
Underfoot conditions won’t be ideal for MAKSUD, who has a soft ground action. He won on his belated debut at Windsor over 2,000m but then ran creditably when fourth to LIONEL in a slow-run Listed race over 2,240m at Goodwood.
SELECTIONS: 6. REACH FOR THE MOON, 1. CLAYMORE, 2. CRESTA & 5. MAKSUD
S1-7 Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
Course specialist CHIEFOFCHIEFS has the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m in his sights as he attempts to record his second Royal Ascot victory. Charlie Fellowes’ 9YO won the Silver Wokingham Stakes over 1,200m at this meeting two years ago and he probably needs the extra distance these days. He loves the way these big-field handicaps on Ascot’s straight course are run, as he is at his best when there’s a strong pace. Luck deserted him in the Victoria Cup over 1,400m at Ascot last month as he repeatedly found his path blocked in the closing stages.
MONTASSIB is unbeaten after three starts. He made a winning debut over 1,200m on Newcastle’s tapeta track in 2020 but he missed the whole of last year. His long absence didn’t stop him making a winning comeback over 1,400m at Wetherby in April and he followed up last month easily landing a 1,400m Goodwood handicap. William Haggas’ runner has the potential to develop into a Group-race performer.
VAFORTINO proved he has a liking for this course and distance when winning the Victoria Cup over the same course and distance last month. There was a lot to like about the way he landed that big-field handicap with the minimum of fuss. That was only his second run for Kevin Phillipart de Foy having joined the Newmarket-based trainer from Joseph O’Brien so he could well keep improving now he has found his form.
SILENT FILM has been in great form abroad. He showed a decent change of pace to win over 1,400m at Meydan in Dubai in January before getting up close home in a rough race over 1,400m in Bahrain the following month. Charlie Appleby’s runner had already shown good form in Britain when putting in a strong late run to win over 1,400m at Sandown last season. His style of racing is perfectly suited to this contest and he looks a real specialist at this 1,400m distance.
DANCE FEVER was poorly drawn when down the field in the Victoria Cup, but he showed his liking for this course and distance when a close third over 1,400m here last year. He loves to arrive late off a strong pace so he should have the race run perfectly to suit him. Fast ground is also ideal.
SELECTIONS: 18. CHIEFOFCHIEFS, 15. MONTASSIB, 7. VAFORTINO, 3. SILENT FILM & 19. DANCE FEVER
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