 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Albany Stakes
It was hard not to be impressed with the way MAWJ destroyed her rivals on debut and she looks well up to the G3 level of the 1,200m Albany Stakes. She quickened up in great style when storming home over 1,200m at Newmarket in May by nearly five lengths. That was a performance of real quality and, as a half-sister of last year’s Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf winner MODERN GAMES, she has the pedigree to match. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor doesn’t tend to get the best of the Godolphin 2YO these days, but he definitely looks to have a smart one on his hands with MAWJ.
MEDITATE had little trouble making a winning debut over 1,000m at the Curragh in April. That form is not all that great but she couldn’t have won much easier and she improved when stepped up to 1,186m for her second start. That came in a Naas G3 and it was nice to see the way she came home strongly over the longer distance having sat close to a fast pace. That will help her in this race.
QUEEN OLLY didn’t have the best of the draw for her debut in a York maiden over 1,200m, so it was good to see her quicken away for an impressive victory. She had her rivals strung out when she crossed the line three-and-a-half lengths clear of the runner-up with another five lengths to the third-placed youngster. That kind of speed is always going to be dangerous.
SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA was a cheap yearling and she’s already looking a bargain buy judged on her debut win over 1,300m at Newbury in late May. Charles Hills’ filly took a while to realise what was needed but she got better as the race developed. She was well on top at the line and it’s not hard to think she will take a big step forward from that run.
CATHY COME HOME probably didn’t beat an awful lot on her debut over 1,001m at Musselburgh, but the manner of that come-from-behind victory was very good. She is bred to love the step up to 1,200m, so Karl Burke’s filly should not be underestimated.
SELECTIONS: 12. MAWJ, 13. MEDITATE, 16. QUEEN OLLY, 18. SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA & 4. CATHY COME HOME
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-1:
Banker – 12. MAWJ
Selections – 13. MEDITATE, 16. QUEEN OLLY, 18. SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA & 4. CATHY COME HOME
S2-2:
Banker – 3. EHRAZ
Selections – 14. TWILIGHT JET, 4. EL CABALLO, 15. WINGS OF WAR & 9. PERFECT POWER
S2-2 Commonwealth Cup
Though still a relatively new race, the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m already has an established role of honour with the likes of MUHAARAR, CARAVAGGIO and CAMPANELLE all coming home in front since its inception in 2015. This year’s contest looks a fairly open renewal with plenty interesting profiles set to line up.
EHRAZ looks a leading contender for this, even though he’s only tasted victory once in five career starts. That came in impressive fashion over course and distance last season and while he hasn’t won since, he’s run creditably on several occasions. He looked in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance in the G3 Pavilion Stakes at Ascot over 1,200m and showed marked improvement when just touched off in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes next time out. Richard Hannon’s colt should step forward again and is expected to go close.
Irish raider TWILIGHT JET can chase him home. The son of TWILIGHT SON has taken in plenty of racing in his career so far running 12 times, most recently at Naas where he bolted up in the G3 Lacken Stakes over 1,186m. He was a really good winner of the G3 Cornwallis Stakes at 1,000m last season too and both those pieces of form bring him right into contention.
EL CABALLO has to be respected given he’s won six in a row. He landed the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m last time and given former winners have a strong record in this contest, two winners in the last three are being placed, he has sound claims of keeping that trend going. This is another step up for Karl Burke’s contender, but there could easily be more to come.
WINGS OF WAR finished behind EHRAZ in the aforementioned Pavilion Stakes, but stepped forward markedly from that in the Sandy Lane Stakes behind EL CABALLO. He won the G2 Mill Reef Stakes at the end of last season and will have no issues with the rattling fast conditions.
Though one of the likely market leaders, PERFECT POWER might have to settle for the minor placings. He won the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at the Royal meeting last year and has won G1s at Deauville and Newmarket both over 1,200m since. Richard Fahey’s colt clearly didn’t stay in the 2000 Guineas over 1,600m last time and he’ll be much better over this trip.
SELECTIONS: 3. EHRAZ, 14. TWILIGHT JET, 4. EL CABALLO, 15. WINGS OF WAR & 9. PERFECT POWER
S2-3 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap)
JUST FINE looks a good place to start in this competitive 2,392m handicap as The Queen’s runner is sure to have been given the perfect preparation for this race. This Sir Michael Stoute-trained gelding has only won once in handicap contest at 1,990m, but ran several nice races last season and has been given a gradual introduction to racing in his early career that is the hallmark of his trainer. He returned this season when third in a good race at York over 2,371m, keeping on from the back of the field. This SEA THE STARS gelding could be ready to blossom this season as a 4YO and looks set to run a huge race on ground that will suit him perfectly. If seeing out the 2,392m thoroughly, he could prove to be a priceless Royal winner.
There are plenty of lightly-raced improving types in here and none more so than John & Thady Gosden’s TRAWLERMAN, who was deemed good enough to contest the Sandown G3 Classic Trial over 1,990m last season. He clearly had an issue after that run as he wasn’t seen again until reappearing with a win over 2,000m on the polytrack at Chelmsford in April. We know he stays this trip well – he won over 2,405m last season – and it could be that he is well-treated at the weights, so as long as he backs up his reappearance run he should have strong claims.
CONTACT has already proved himself to be a high-class handicapper this season, winning two valuable prizes over 2,400m at Newmarket and then 2,359m at Haydock. The way he stuck on resolutely in the closing stages at the Lancashire track strongly suggested that this was a horse that hadn’t stopped improving yet and he looks more than worth his rise in the weights for that win.
At bigger prices Godolphin’s BRILLIANT LIGHT is not without a chance. This 5YO is more exposed than many in here but seldom runs a bad race and was seen to best effect at Ripon over 1,955m last time when taking advantage of a fall in the weights. The handicapper hasn’t given him much of a rise for that, which leaves him still looking feasibly treated and he should get every assistance from Daniel Tudhope in the saddle.
Another of interest is Mrs John Harrington’s EVER PRESENT, who started life in National Hunt Flat races but ended last season by winning a valuable Leopardstown handicap over 2,564m. This is a big ask on his seasonal bow, but he remains lightly raced and could be a threat.
SELECTIONS: 8. JUST FINE, 6. TRAWLERMAN, 13. CONTACT, 11. BRILLIANT LIGHT & 1. EVER PRESENT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 8. JUST FINE
Selections – 6. TRAWLERMAN, 13. CONTACT, 11. BRILLIANT LIGHT & 1. EVER PRESENT
S2-4:
Banker – 5. INSPIRAL
Selections – 1. CACHET, 10. SANDRINE, 7. PIZZA BIANCA & 8. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
S2-4 Coronation Stakes
This promises to be an absolute cracker, with six previous G1 winners in the field. INSPIRAL, last season’s champion 2YO filly, will need to be at her best to defy a long absence. However, ALPINE STAR showed it can be done two years ago and, being unbeaten in four races, INSPIRAL has that same special quality. She saved the best until her final run at two, outclassing PROSPEROUS VOYAGE and CACHET, both of whom have franked the form at the top table this year, with a vintage display in the Fillies Mile over 1,600m at Newmarket. Though deemed not ready for the 1000 Guineas, INSPIRAL, who is built like an Olympic shot-putter, has looked on her A-game in recent gallops and can make up for lost time.
In contrast, CACHET has not missed a dance since, being beaten less a length by PIZZA BIANCA in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over 1,600m in Del Mar and coming within a neck of winning the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m. So brave when straining every sinew to beat off her old rival PROSPEROUS VOYAGE at Newmarket, just two weeks later CACHET was involved in another bruising battle, the G1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches at ParisLongchamp over 1,600m, being pipped close home. Twice CACHET and PROSPEROUS VOYAGE have flashed over the line almost inseparable, and I’d expect both to be in the mix again.
SANDRINE was one of the best around over 1,200m last year, winning three, including the G3 Albany Stakes at the Royal meeting. She tried 1,600m for the first time in the G1 1000 Guineas and, though her stamina held out and she finished fifth, this easier round course will suit her better.
It took PIZZA BIANCA two and a half days to get to Britain from New York because of quarantine, but she has settled down well at Newmarket. Obviously, everything is new to PIZZA BIANCA, but the five races she has had in her homeland have all been on different tracks, so Ascot won’t be a problem. The likely fast pace will also suit PIZZA BIANCA as she came from the back to win the big one at Del Mar over 1,600m. However, CACHET, who maybe paid the penalty for making a premature move in that race, is now on home turf, so she could well gain her revenge.
SELECTIONS: 5. INSPIRAL, 1. CACHET, 10. SANDRINE, 7. PIZZA BIANCA & 8. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
S2-5 Sandringham Stakes (Handicap)
Unbeaten HEREDIA will love the step up to 1,600m for the first time in the Sandringham Stakes. She won a novice race at Windsor over 1,211m and a Newbury conditions contest over 1,400m last season. The way she overcame traffic problems to win over 1,400m at York last month suggested she had started off life in handicaps as a well-treated filly. The longer distance and likely strong pace should be ideal for Richard Hannon’ runner. There’s a fair chance she is better than a handicapper so she should have excellent claims.
Newmarket-based trainer Charlie Fellowes has a superb record in this race. He has lifted this trophy twice in the last three years from just the two runners and he has another live chance in FRESH HOPE. She got off the mark on her handicap debut over 1,594m at Doncaster last month. That was a particularly pleasing victory as she was hampered at the start and had to show plenty of gears to get into a position to challenge in the closing stages. The finishing burst she used to get to the front near the winning line will make her a dangerous opponent.
CRENELLE went off favourite for the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket last month, but she failed to stay the 2,000m distance. She is much better judged on her defeat of subsequent Listed winner FONTEYN over 1,600m at Newmarket’s maiden when the front pair finished nine lengths clear of the rest. It’s easy to think she is well treated for her handicap debut.
The form of the 1,400m Kempton maiden ZANBAQ won on her debut last November worked out really well and she finished third behind smart fillies MRS FITZHERBERT and BASHKIROVA in a good 1,600m Goodwood Listed race on her return to action. An easy victory in a 1,393m Haydock novice contest should have set her up for a crack at this prize.
PERSIST was a little unfortunate not to get off the mark in three runs last year. She put that right on her first run of this season when swooping late to win a 1,600m Ripon maiden last month. That was an impressive performance as she raced much further back in the early stages than was ideal and she should get a faster pace to aim at this time. There is more to come from this beautifully-bred daughter of G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner PERSUASIVE.
SELECTIONS: 3. HEREDIA, 25. FRESH HOPE, 8. CRENELLE, 2. ZANBAQ & 17. PERSIST
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 3. HEREDIA, 25. FRESH HOPE & 8. CRENELLE
S2-6: Multiple – 5. OTTOMAN FLEET, 1. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD & 4. LYSANDER
S2-7: Multiple – 9. LADIES CHURCH, 2. KORKER & 8. CANONIZED
S2-6 King Edward VII Stakes
In the last 11 years, William Buick has won the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m an impressive four times, and he’ll be hoping to make it five with OTTOMAN FLEET. The Charlie Appleby-trained gelding put in a smart performance when last seen at Newmarket in a Listed event over 2,000m. The son of SEA THE STARS travelled strongly and when asked to put the race to bed he did so in impressive fashion. The step up in distance looks like it will play to his strengths and he showed last time that he relishes quick ground, so he should run very well.
CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD encounters the fastest conditions of his career so far and there must be slight reservations given his only turf victory came in the G3 Chester Vase over 2,457m on soft ground. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt took the field along for most of the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m on his most recent outing and those tactics could be deployed to a greater advantage in this six-runner affair.
Challenging at the finish could be LYSANDER for William Haggas and Tom Marquand. The two teamed up in this race last year to land the spoils with ALENQUER, and they have a good chance here with the son of NEW APPROACH. He was last seen in a Listed contest at Goodwood over 2,240m where the going was soft and that looked to be the deciding factor when finishing third by under a length to LIONEL. If LYSANDER can handle the quicker conditions, which his breeding suggests he will, he could be there at the finish.
DARK MOON RISING may have a better chance here than his form suggests. After finishing fourth in the competitive G2 Dante Stakes at York over 2,051m, the Kevin Ryan-trained colt couldn’t keep up with the leaders when they kicked for home but stayed on strongly. This extra distance along with a stronger pace to aim at should suit him well. The form of his fourth at York took a boost recently too with EL BODEGON, who finished seventh, finishing runner-up in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m.
SELECTIONS: 5. OTTOMAN FLEET, 1. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, 4. LYSANDER & 2. DARK MOON RISING
S2-7 Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes (Handicap)
There have only been two renewals of this 1,000m dash, and the inaugural edition was won by smart sprinter ART POWER. Many of these lightly-raced speedsters are a long way from fulfilling their full potential, but some have already shown themselves to be up to Listed and Group class, as is the case with LADIES CHURCH.
John Murtagh's daughter of CHURCHILL won a Listed race at Naas over 1,000m on only her third career start last season and then placed in G3 company next time out over 1,200m. She demonstrated that she had trained on this year, when just beaten a neck by a smart rival on reappearance at Cork over 1,100m and now looks well treated stepping into handicaps for the first time.
The last two winners of this race have both been drawn on the stands' side rail, which is often the place to be at Ascot, especially when the ground is riding quick. That makes KORKER, drawn in stall 24, of strong interest and he comes here after an impressive win at York over 1,000m in May. He is another with experience of Royal Ascot after finishing down the field in last season's Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m, but this is certainly tougher than last time, and he might just find a few better handicapped now.
CANONIZED has run 14 races so far in her career, but this will be her first in handicap company and judged on last year's performances she has a chance at the weights. William Haggas' filly will have to bounce back from finishing seventh of seven at Lingfield in March, but that came over 1,401m, so the drop back to a sprint trip is expected to help.
STERLING KNIGHT sneaks in off a low weight and certainly holds claims based on his win at this track over 1,200m last month. The rival he beat that day has since gone on to win and place twice, so it looks reasonable form and he has to be considered.
SELECTIONS: 9. LADIES CHURCH, 2. KORKER, 8. CANONIZED & 20. STERLING KNIGHT
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