 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for King's Stand Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Queen Anne Stakes
Tough and consistent MODERN GAMES looks to have a great chance of landing his sixth top-level victory in the G1 1,600m Queen Anne Stakes that kicks off Royal Ascot. He had already won G1 races in France, USA and Canada before winning his first British G1 when beating CHINDIT and BERKSHIRE SHADOW in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury last month. It was a dominant performance from Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin star and it confirmed his class. He had won the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland last November on fast ground, so he should have his favoured conditions in this prestigious contest.
Star filly INSPIRAL was impressive at Royal Ascot last year. She stormed home to win the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m for 3YO fillies when making her belated return to action around 8 months ago. The rest of the season didn’t quite go to plan. She did land her third G1 prize with a typically strong, late burst of speed in the G1 Jacques le Marois over 1,600m at Deauville, but that victory was sandwiched between disappointing defeats. This will be her first start since October, but she goes well when returning from a break.
CHINDIT has yet to win a G1 prize but he has run with credit at this level. He wasn’t disgraced behind BAAEED on three occasions last season, including in this race, and he probably bettered those efforts when chasing home MODERN GAMES in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury. His consistency gives him a chance if a couple of his rivals underperform.
LIGHT INFANTRY was only beaten a neck runner-up behind INSPIRAL in the G1 Jacques le Marois over 1,600m at Deauville last season. He was poorly positioned, too far off the slow early pace, in his first two starts of this year, but he bounced back to form when runner-up behind ANMAAT in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m at ParisLongchamp last month. The switch to frontrunning tactics was a help and it showed his versatility.
BERKSHIRE SHADOW likes this track. He won the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m as a 2YO at Royal Ascot in 2021. Last year, he was only beaten one and three quarters lengths when sixth behind COROEBUS in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,600m despite having to challenge wide on the course. His close third behind MODERN GAMES in the G1 Locking Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury gives him a chance of hitting the frame again.
SELECTIONS: 7. MODERN GAMES, 12. INSPIRAL, 4. CHINDIT, 5. LIGHT INFANTRY & 2. BERKSHIRE SHADOW
S1-2 Coventry Stakes
This year’s G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m looks a really interesting race, with some seriously promising types set to take each other on in the first juvenile contest of the week. Those towards the head of the market look more than worthy of their spots there, namely ASADNA. The son of MEHMAS has only run once but he was incredibly impressive on that sole start, winning a Ripon novice race over 1,200m by 12 lengths. It was the performance of a horse with serious ability, and he looks sure to run well.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race a record nine times and his RIVER TIBER is another major player. He has won both times we’ve seen him, including a convincing 10-length debut win at Navan over 1,149m. RIVER TIBER got the job done nicely at Naas over 1,000m last time, and the only slight concern would be that this could be the fastest ground he will have encountered if the rain doesn’t come.
The two leading contenders are drawn on opposite sides of the track with ASADNA breaking from barrier 17 near the stands side and RIVER TIBER from gate six over the far side. At this stage, the ground may just be a fraction quicker over that far side and that gives RIVER TIBER the verdict.
Mrs John Harrington has booked Frankie Dettori to ride GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS which shows the Irish trainer’s intentions with her son of BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE. Like many of his rivals, he’s unbeaten, but he’s one of the few to have tasted success at Group level having won the G3 Marble Hill Stakes over 1,200m at Curragh last time. He beat four previous winners in that contest, so the form looks solid and he’s an intriguing contender.
Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle teamed up to win this G2 race with BRADSELL last year, and they’ll be hoping to repeat the feat with ARMY ETHOS. He was really impressive when winning an Ayr maiden over 1,200m on his sole racecourse appearance and while this is a big step up, he looked to have plenty in hand. Connections know how to win this race and he has to be feared.
If there is one who might outrun his odds, it could be HAATEM. Richard Hannon’s charge is one of the more experienced runners in the line-up having run three times. He won a novice race at Bath over 1,145m on his second start impressively and although he wasn’t quite as good at Epsom’s Woodcote Stakes over 1,203m last time, better can be expected here.
SELECTIONS: 17. RIVER TIBER, 3. ASADNA, 12. GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS, 13. HAATEM & 2. ARMY ETHOS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 17. RIVER TIBER
Selections – 3. ASADNA, 12. GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS, 13. HAATEM & 2. ARMY ETHOS
S1-3:
Banker – 12. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS
Selections – 10. COOLANGATTA, 6. MANACCAN, 2. CANNONBALL & 19. DRAMATISED
S1-3 King's Stand Stakes
Topping the ratings for the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m is HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, the winner of the Buckingham Palace Stakes over 1,400m in 2021 who also ran well to finish sixth in last year’s G1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m. Two wins over 1,000m last season and a close second last time out in the G2 Duke of York Stakes over 1,200m show that the 6YO daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER is thriving with age. Both trip and likely ground conditions will suit her and she should be in the mix.
Australian runner COOLANGATTA has only been beaten in three of her eight races. A consistent performer over 1,000m and 1,200m, this filly, who won the G1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes over 1,000m in February on her seasonal reappearance, tends to improve on her second run after a break, so we can expect her to be a serious player.
Ridden by Frankie Dettori, who needs no introduction, is course and distance winner MANACCAN. The colt performed better than usual on his seasonal reappearance under Dettori in the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m as he tends to improve for the outing. If the improvement does come, as his form suggests, it bodes very well and he should be competitive as Dettori hunts a second King’s Stand Stakes win.
Another Australian contender is CANNONBALL, whose return to the racecourse this season saw him win a G3 Maurice McCarten Stakes over 1,100m. Recently running well for third place in a G1 The Galaxy over 1,100m, the son of CAPITALIST comes to Ascot in the best form of his career for new trainers Peter & Paul Snowden. How he will fare in this hotter race remains a question, though.
Although younger and less experienced than some of her rivals, DRAMATISED should have a strong chance on the back of her second place in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over 1,100m in November and an impressive run to win the G2 Temple Stakes over 1,000m last month. She receives weight from all of her rivals due to her age and sex and should be capable of being competitive.
SELECTIONS: 12. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, 10. COOLANGATTA, 6. MANACCAN, 2. CANNONBALL & 19. DRAMATISED
S1-4 St James's Palace Stakes
The third and final G1 on the opening day of Royal Ascot, the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,600m promises to be a cracker. It pits the winner of the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket over 1,600m in CHALDEAN against the winner of the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh over 1,600m in PADDINGTON, with the latter fancied to come out on top.
PADDINGTON has won four of his five career starts, coming through the ranks steadily. He began this season by winning a Naas handicap over 1,400m before landing the Listed Tetrarch Stakes over 1,600m at Curragh subsequently. Aidan O’Brien’s challenger was then stepped up in grade in the aforementioned Irish 2000 Guineas and was impressive in winning by two lengths. He sets the standard here.
CHALDEAN is another who is very talented as shown by his win in the 2000 Guineas last time. Bar unseating Frankie Dettori in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m, CHALDEAN has won his last five and is clearly a leading contender here. One could query the substance of the form of his 2000 Guineas win, though, while he’ll also need to prove he can handle this likely quicker surface.
CICERO’S GIFT is one of the most promising horses in training. He has only run three times in his life, but has won all three, with the last being a visually impressive five-and-a-half-length victory at Goodwood over 1,600m. This is a huge step up in class, but his trainer Charles Hills hasn’t hidden the high regard he holds the son of MUHAARAR in, and his untapped potential makes him very interesting.
ROYAL SCOTSMAN ran really well in the G1 2000 Guineas, with many thinking he was an unlucky third. However, he was a disappointing ninth having been supplemented for the Irish equivalent last time. He needs to bounce back, but his back form is very solid and he can’t be dismissed as a result.
It was hard not to be impressed by MOSTABSHIR’s win at York over 1,575m last time. The son of DARK ANGEL cruised past his rivals to win by five lengths in what was the performance of a very talented colt. He faces much better rivals here, but it’s highly doubtful we’ve seen the best of him.
SELECTIONS: 8. PADDINGTON, 3. CICERO’S GIFT, 1. CHALDEAN, 9. ROYAL SCOTSMAN & 7. MOSTABSHIR
S1-5 Ascot Stakes
The Ascot Stakes over 4,004m is historically a handicap where National Hunt trainers have enjoyed plenty of success.
Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has won this race three times in the past 10 years and just missed out on making it four last year, when BRING ON THE NIGHT was denied by less than a length at the finish. The form of that race has taken a serious boost since, with the winner COLTRANE going on to land multiple Group races and is the favourite for Thursday’s Gold Cup. While BRING ON THE NIGHT hasn’t been seen since running here last June, and has gone up in the weights, this race has clearly been the target for him ever since last year and he could take a bit of stopping.
Another horse that has good past form at Royal Ascot is the Richard Hughes-trained CALLING THE WIND, who in the last two years has finished second and third in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 4,330m. This strong-travelling horse looked to be coming to win that contest last year, but just faded at the finish and this slight drop back in trip should suit him. He’s also been slipping down the handicap and now has the services of excellent young claimer Billy Loughnane in the saddle, so he should be competitive at the weights.
LAW OF THE SEA has looked an improved horse since making the switch to the Ian Williams yard this season. He was unlucky when not getting a clear run in the Chester Cup over 3,727m and there where excuses when finishing a narrow runner-up at Haydock over 3,241m last month. That was a slowly run race and LAW OF THE SEA was never quite able to quicken past the long-time leader, but stayed on all the way to the line to be beaten less than a length. He’s unexposed over a marathon trip like this and, with this likely to be a more truly run race, he should go well from a competitive handicap mark.
AHORSEWITHNONAME represents the top jumps yard of Nicky Henderson, and was last seen winning a Listed race over hurdles at Cheltenham over 4,051m. She finished in fifth in last year’s Cesarewitch over 3,600m and, while she should run well, a few of these may be better handicapped.
The final selection is ZOFFEE, who was last seen when narrowly missing out in the Chester Cup over 3,727m. He’s versatile in terms of ground and is still unexposed over a trip of more than 3,200m on the flat.
SELECTIONS: 5. BRING ON THE NIGHT, 2. CALLING THE WIND, 17. LAW OF THE SEA, 6. AHORSEWITHNONAME & 11. ZOFFEE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 5. BRING ON THE NIGHT
Selections – 2. CALLING THE WIND, 17. LAW OF THE SEA, 6. AHORSEWITHNONAME & 11. ZOFFEE
S1-6:
Banker – 14. SAGA
Selections – 1. BUCKAROO, 5. BOLSHOI BALLET, 3. KING OF CONQUEST & 6. CADILLAC
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. BRING ON THE NIGHT, 2. CALLING THE WIND & 17. LAW OF THE SEA
S1-6: Multiple – 14. SAGA, 1. BUCKAROO & 5. BOLSHOI BALLET
S1-7: Multiple – 7. VAUBAN, 4. POINT KING & 8. ABSURDE
S1-6 Wolferton Stakes
Last year at Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori came very close to landing a brilliant success in the royal silks with SAGA in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m. Fast forward 12 months and now over a longer distance, the same horse could give the famous jockey a memorable win in the Listed Wolferton Stakes over 1,993m for his longtime boss John & Thady Gosden. The 4YO by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT is in good form following his second in the handicap over 1,800m last month and although he is winless in his last seven attempts, conditions should be favourable here.
Running in Great Britain for the first time, BUCKAROO, trained by Irishman Joseph O’Brien, is a proven Group-level horse stepping down in class. The 4YO by FASTNET ROCK was only beaten by a neck on his last run when fourth in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m at ParisLongchamp. Before that, he defeated HOMELESS SONGS, last year’s G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m winner, in the Listed Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown in April. Now he is in good form, he can hit the frame under the in-form Oisin Murphy.
BOLSHOI BALLET has been disappointing in Group-level races since his win in the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes over 2,000m in July 2021. However, a promising run on his latest start at Newbury in the G3 Al Rayyan Stakes over 2,400m would suggest the once Epsom Derby favourite is somewhere back to his best. Ryan Moore takes the ride on the 5YO by GALILEO and trainer Aidan O’Brien won this contest in 2016 with SIR ISAAC NEWTON.
12 months ago, this race was won by DUBAI FUTURE for the powerful Godolphin operation and this year, KING OF CONQUEST is hoping to reclaim the trophy. The gelding by LOPE DE VEGA has been unbeaten in his last four runs and was the horse that beat SAGA earlier this season in the aforementioned handicap over 1,800m last month. Since then, KING OF CONQUEST stepped up in class to the Listed Festival Stakes over 1,979m and won impressively, giving him a competitive chance at Royal Ascot.
Another son of LOPE DE VEGA who won on his last start is CADILLAC for George Boughey. The 5YO was successful in a competitive handicap over 2,015m at Epsom on Oaks Day, a race that was his first win in exactly a year. The £500,000 purchase is starting to show why connections paid that sort of money for him, and he is an interesting runner for jockey James McDonald.
SELECTIONS: 14. SAGA, 1. BUCKAROO, 5. BOLSHOI BALLET, 3. KING OF CONQUEST & 6. CADILLAC
S1-7 Copper Horse Handicap
Being run for only the fourth time, this 2,844m handicap runs on the round course. Willie Mullins, 17 times Ireland’s champion jumps trainer, has two major contenders in VAUBAN and ABSURDE.
VAUBAN has won three Grade 1’s at the winter game, including last year’s prestigious Triumph Hurdle over 3,400m at the Cheltenham Festival. He has looked better than ever over jumps this winter, but he has been a hard horse for the Flat handicapper to assess. He has run only four times on the level, as a 3YO when trained in France, where he won twice, one over 2,200m and another one over 2,400m. Connections have already mentioned the Melbourne Cup as a possible future target for VAUBAN, who is a staying horse with a finishing kick. Ryan Moore has been booked and we should cash in on the handicapper’s generosity in giving VAUBAN what looks a winning mark.
However, Mullins has been known to win plenty of big races with his second-string, so ABSURDE deserves plenty of respect. Another recruit from France, ABSURDE made a winning start for Mullins over hurdles at Killarney over 4,000m last month. That race that will have put him spot on for the switch back to the Flat. Frankie Dettori has been snapped up, too.
Trainer Joseph O’Brien runs the classy POINT KING, who is also a Melbourne Cup possible. He ran a corker after an extended winter break when just short-headed in a G3 at Leopardstown over 2,800m last month. The slow pace did not help him that day either. POINT KING’s only disappointment came on Irish Champions Day over 2,400m, but he is a big horse who floats over fast ground, and he hated those testing conditions.
Charlie Appleby has resumed winning ways after a below-par spell during May, and he is keen on RULING DYNASTY, who gave lumps of weight to younger rivals in a novice at Haydock over 2,327m. RULING DYNASTY has been a slow learner but he is bred to be decent, and OLD PERSIAN, his half-brother, won the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m here five years ago.
SAM COOKE has been a real money-spinner for Ralph Beckett, winning five races and being placed in another eight. He goes on any ground and ought to be in the mix again.
SELECTIONS: 7. VAUBAN, 4. POINT KING, 8. ABSURDE, 14. RULING DYNASTY & 2. SAM COOKE
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