 Expert - Luke Middlebrook's Bio | |
|---|---|
| Luke has been a devout follower and form student of horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore for over 10 years, during which time he became renowned as a leading analyst for Asian racing through various social media channels. In June 2016, Luke moved to Singapore to join the iRace Media as Chief Editor for the English edition, where he oversees all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. | |
Expert Column for Singapore Derby Day (S1) (Luke Middlebrook)
S1-1 Class 4 Handicap
4YO gelding CITY GOLD STAR scored his first local win at start number three on 20 May. It was an impressive victory and he looks to have better than Class 4 ability. From barrier 1 under fly-in jockey Hugh Bowman, they look very hard to oppose and should be hard to beat.
KNIPPENBERG clearly looks the next-best winning chance. The 3YO gelding is a two-time winner from five starts at Kranji, winning a Novice over the same track and distance in his last start. It is interesting to see champion jockey Manoel Nunes ride for Donna Logan here, as the pair have only partnered up eight times in the past 12 months for one win and five second placings.
DANCING SUPREMO is a newcomer for trainer Shane Baertschiger, who trialled very nicely leading up to his first-up assignment. Blinkers remains on, which he wore to success in his maiden win in Australia in his final start down under, and he has drawn well low in barrier 3 for Sunday’s race.
4YO TRIBUTO is honest and consistent. In nine career starts, so far, he has amassed one win and seven minor placings. He was last seen checking in an eye-catching runner-up at this track and distance, missing by 0.8 lengths. He may get back in the run from a wide draw again, but should be strong late as usual.
LIM’S BESTBREAKER always has to be considered at Class 4 level. This is his second run back in the grade after the class drop. It’s also his second-up run after over a year on the sidelines, so he should be much fitter now, but barrier 10 may force the rider to steady early and race for luck.
SELECTIONS: 1. CITY GOLD STAR, 2. KNIPPENBERG, 4. DANCING SUPREMO, 8. TRIBUTO & 3. LIM’S BESTBREAKER
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 1. CITY GOLD STAR & 2. KNIPPENBERG
S1-2: Multiple – 2. PACIFIC WARRIOR & 8. MONTANA FLASH
S1-2 Class 4 Handicap
PACIFIC WARRIOR has found a good race where he gets his chance to post his first win at Kranji. The 3YO son of SNITZEL has raced four times locally now and has always been around the mark. Last start, after a third-place finish in the Singapore G2 Singapore Guineas over 1,600m, he was sent off a well-backed odds-on chance in a Class 4 handicap, but led too quickly and faded late into fourth, beaten three lengths. Back to 1,400m looks good for his chances.
Another who will appreciate coming back in trip is trainer Donna Logan’s 4YO MONTANA FLASH. The gelding hasn’t won a race for almost a year but has performed well enough in 2023 to suggest he’s heading in the right direction. Two starts ago at this track and distance, he drew widest in barrier 14, raced for luck out the back but came home strongly late into second. He last contested the Singapore G2 Stewards’ Cup, racing wide throughout and plugging away for seventh.
3YO SUPER CONVINCE from leading trainer Jason Ong’s stable looks like he can improve big time here. He won nicely in a maiden race over this distance two starts ago before going on to race wide rising to this class subsequently. Given a freshen break, he has trialled well in between runs.
Old-timer QUADCOPTER always has to be given some hope when he takes a class drop. Four of his seven career wins have been in Class 4 and he is a proven track and distance performer, with stats that read 27-4-1-2.
KICK from the Timothy Fitzsimmons yard stretches to 1,400m for the first time in his career though he hasn’t got on the board for a first local win from seven starts so far, he has placed four times. He boasts good enough Class 4 form for a race like this and should be right there in the finish if he sees out the trip.
SELECTIONS: 2. PACIFIC WARRIOR, 8. MONTANA FLASH, 7. SUPER CONVINCE, 1. QUADCOPTER & 4. KICK
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 2. PACIFIC WARRIOR & 8. MONTANA FLASH
S1-3: Multiple – 1. BAKEEL & 13. PACIFIC COMMANDER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. PACIFIC WARRIOR
Selections – 8. MONTANA FLASH, 7. SUPER CONVINCE, 1. QUADCOPTER & 4. KICK
S1-3:
Banker – 1. BAKEEL
Selections – 13. PACIFIC COMMANDER, 2. ARTILLERY, 4. SILO & 8. FIRE
S1-3 Singapore Golden Horseshoe
BAKEEL created a huge impression on debut at this track and distance early this month. The SIOUX NATION gelding let down impressively under champion jockey Manoel Nunes, kicking clear 1.8 lengths the better of his nearest rival. It was one of the more visually impressive wins from a 2YO this season, which stands him out as the one they all have to beat in the feature for big-race trainer, Michael Clements.
PACIFIC COMMANDER, also from the Clements stable, had no luck on debut when runner-up to BAKEEL. He bounded out from barrier 11, lost ground and mapped out the back. He also didn’t obtain completely clear running in the straight, until finding galloping room late and closing off strongly. He appears to have a big engine and is open to any amount of improvement second-up.
Runner-up to SILO on debut was trainer Donna Logan’s SMART MISSILE gelding, ARTILLERY. He was checked early just after the start on that occasion, which resulted in him losing ground and racing at the rear. He bounced back in a big way second-up, overcoming barrier 10 to find the lead. He eventually won going away by 1.8 lengths.
Trainer Stephen Crutchley’s colt, SILO, should acquit himself well. The son of NATIONAL DEFENSE has raced two times for a luckless third-place finish on debut before going on to score his first win impressively second-up. It’s also proven to be a handy form race since. Given over 1 and a half months between runs since his second-up success, SILO has trialled well ahead of his return.
FIRE has the advantage of barrier 1, which has to be a serious advantage for the lightly-raced youngsters. He has placed third in both runs to date and gets the services of fly-in jockey, Hugh Bowman. He hasn’t shown as much class as some of his rivals, but the race does appear to set up in his favour.
SELECTIONS: 1. BAKEEL, 13. PACIFIC COMMANDER, 2. ARTILLERY, 4. SILO & 8. FIRE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. BAKEEL & 13. PACIFIC COMMANDER
S1-4: Multiple – 8. ENGINE START & 2. PACIFIC STAR
S1-4 Class 4 Handicap
ENGINE START for leading trainer Jason Ong is thriving this season, with two wins and three placings from 10 starts. He was last seen checking in an eye-catching second at this track, after a thrilling win over the same distance on the polytrack. Importantly, he reacquaints with champion jockey Manoel Nunes here, who has two wins and a second from three rides aboard the gelding, which should prove key to his chances stepping away from barrier 1.
PACIFIC STAR is 15 days off a last-start win at this track over 1,400m, dead-heating after looking desperately in most of the straight. Just a 3YO who has, so far, built a handy record of three wins and five placings from 14 starts, the ceiling doesn’t seem to have been reached yet.
Form juvenile Group winners BOOMBA is well placed in Class 4. This is his fourth run in the grade since the class drop. He has the tongue tie applied for the first time, which could spark improvement, and the manner in his last trial suggests he’s entering the race in good form.
EASY BREEZY from the Daniel Meagher camp continues to improve each and every run. The 6YO South African import only made his Kranji debut three races ago in mid-June, but is trending in the right direction, as evidenced by his eye-catching run into third over 1,400m 15 days ago.
CITIZEN could be one to surprise at odds. He hasn’t had a lot of luck in his last two runs, but is better than what the finishing positions read. Last start, he raced wide and was also checked, which dashed his chances. Under the right race shape, he has a sharp turn of foot.
SELECTIONS: 8. ENGINE START, 2. PACIFIC STAR, 3. BOOMBA, 4. EASY BREEZY & 10. CITIZEN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 8. ENGINE START & 2. PACIFIC STAR
S1-5: Multiple – 1. SO HI CLASS & 3. TRUMPY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 8. ENGINE START
Selections – 2. PACIFIC STAR, 3. BOOMBA, 4. EASY BREEZY & 10. CITIZEN
S1-5:
Banker – 1. SO HI CLASS
Selections – 3. TRUMPY, 6. RAMBO, 5. HERO & 2. TANGIBLE
S1-5 Class 3 Handicap
Top weight SO HI CLASS, for leading trainer Jason Ong, looks ready to run a big race on the downgrade. The 7YO had no luck last start in a Class 1 Handicap over 1,200m, badly held up inside the final 200m and unable to be tested. Still, 1,200m is not his go. Rising to 1,800m is key to his chances here, and so is barrier 1.
TRUMPY is three-time winner over 1,800m, but he hasn’t been the most prolific winner at Kranji with just one win from 33 starts. However, he is well placed at Class 3 level here and does obtain the services of top jockey, Hugh Bowman. His last-start seventh-place finish had merit to it as he was badly held up for a run from the 500m until the 100m, beaten only less than 3 lengths.
6YO RAMBO was an impressive last-start winner in Class 4 when winning first-up over 1,400m off a near two-year break. He is a two-time winner from three starts over 1,800m, so there are no queries about the trip. He is also tactically versatile, which will play into hands given the small field going to post.
HERO is a four-time winner, five-time placed from 20 starts and is a model of consistency. He is chasing his first Class 3 win after doing most of his best work in lower grades. However, from three runs in the grade, so far, he has picked up two third placings. He looked well in a recent trial and is in good form.
TANGIBLE is drawn nicely low in barrier 3 under top jockey Vladimir Duric. He boasts a solid record of two wins and five placings in Class 3 and has won up to 2,000m in the past – he is versatile. He has the class to take this out if things fall into place for him.
SELECTIONS: 1. SO HI CLASS, 3. TRUMPY, 6. RAMBO, 5. HERO & 2. TANGIBLE
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5:
Multiple – 1. SO HI CLASS & 3. TRUMPY
S1-6:
Multiple – 3. CITYGOLDGENERATION & 4. MAXIMUM CONTROL
S1-6 Novice
CITYGOLDGENERATION won impressively on his Kranji debut, letting down with a sharp turn-of-foot to score convincingly, and has upside. The 3YO gelding by MAURICE has since looked well in a recent trial, which suggests he has come on leaps and bounds from his debut success. Champion jockey Manoel Nunes also remains in the saddle, but does have barrier 10 to contend with.
3YO gelding MAXIMUM CONTROL was last seen checking in a slashing fourth-place finish in the Singapore G2 Singapore Guineas over 1,600m. It was a promising run considering he was forced to race wide on that occasion. He has been rested since, so resumes first-up here off since 27 May, and looked in good form in his recent trial. 1,200m does appear somewhat short of his best distance, but he does look to have plenty of upside moving forward.
Barrier 12 is far from ideal for FIGHT ON, but he is ultra-consistent and boasts strong form for a race of this nature. He was last seen going down to RAMBO by less than 1 length in a Class 4 Handicap over 1,400m, but will relish stepping back to 1,200m. With any luck from the wide gate, he should be there fighting out the finish.
HOLE IN ONE has only missed a spot in the top three on one occasion from five career starts. The 3YO races first-up off a four-month break and was an eye-catcher in his most recent barrier trial. He looks poised to kick off his preparation with a bold run and should be in the mix.
PACIFIC SNOOPY makes her debut for the Michael Clements yard. She looked well in her trial leading up to her first start, taking out her heat in a likeable manner. She appears to have enough ability to perform well locally.
SELECTIONS: 3. CITYGOLDGENERATION, 4. MAXIMUM CONTROL, 2. FIGHT ON, 5. HOLE IN ONE & 13. PACIFIC SNOOPY
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. CITYGOLDGENERATION & 4. MAXIMUM CONTROL
S1-7: Multiple – 3. KHARISMA & 5. MR BLACK BACK
S1-7 Class 2 Handicap
KHARISMA has not won a race since 15th January 2022, but recent runs suggest he is feeling well and is within reach of scoring another win soon. In this race, he will be banking on a fast tempo, which will enable him to run over the top even though all his wins have been over 1,200m so far. His last-start fourth was promising, as he was held up from the 400m until passing 200m and charge home late once clear.
MR BLACK BACK has his first start for trainer Richard Lim after nine runs with last year’s champion trainer, Timothy Fitzsimmons. He is a last-start winner over 1,600m, leading all the way on that occasion but under a slow tempo. The speed map does appear to be a different set up here, with quite a few more who can press forward, so the race pressure could become the undoing of those on-pace if they take each other on.
Unbeaten in Singapore, the 3YO PACIFIC EMPEROR is by far the most interesting runner in the race. Winning three in a row since debuting in late April, he now faces his biggest test, rising from Class 3 to Class 2 while also switching to turf from the polytrack. He also stretches to 1,400m for the first time in his career.
7YO GOLD STAR can win on very best form. This is pet track and distance and he has dropped in low enough in the ratings now to be a player. From barrier 1, he could get the run of the race and he hard to hold out late if he can run up to prior good form.
CIRCUIT MISSION races first-up and should find this race much easier after contesting three Singapore G1 races in his last five starts. He is a proven track and distance performer and is drawn nicely low in barrier 3. He has the class to feature in a race of this nature and is a solid ride for visiting Hong Kong jockey, H T Mo.
SELECTIONS: 3. KHARISMA, 5. MR BLACK BACK, 10. PACIFIC EMPEROR, 7. GOLD STAR & 6. CIRCUIT MISSION
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. KHARISMA & 5. MR BLACK BACK
S1-8: Multiple – 2. GOLDEN MONKEY & 1. SUPER SALUTE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. KHARISMA, 5. MR BLACK BACK & 10. PACIFIC EMPEROR
S1-8: Multiple – 2. GOLDEN MONKEY, 1. SUPER SALUTE & 4. CAVALRY
S1-9: Multiple – 9. SABAH ACE, 5. JANUARY & 2. SPECIAL OPS
S1-8 Singapore Derby
Champion trainer Timothy Fitzsimmons gains his best chance at winning this G1 race with talented 4YO GOLDEN MONKEY standing out as the one to beat in the Singapore Derby. The five-time winner from 12 local starts was ultra-impressive winning the second leg of the series, the 1,600m Singapore G2 Stewards’ Cup, sprinting sharply to post a two-length winning margin. Blinkers came off that day, and quieter tactics were adopted, which look key to his chances rising to 1,800m this week.
SUPER SALUTE remains the benchmark 4YO, despite going down to GOLDEN MONKEY in the second leg. He didn’t have the best trip that day, with jockey Manoel Nunes forced to make it a stop-start affair after the tempo changed throughout. Still, his class ensured his held down second place. The seven-time winner from nine starts locally does stretch to 1,800m for the first time in his career, but as the highest-rated 4YO at level weights against his peers, he is strongly advantaged.
Trainer Michael Clements’ 4YO CAVALRY was ultra-impressive winning on debut on 8 July. The New Zealand import, who boasts strong Group race form abroad, drew away to score comfortably over 1,400m in his first-up assignment, which brought him well and truly into the Derby picture. He will relish the rise to 1,800m, and even further over time, and looks a classy horse on the up.
Fitzsimmons’ other runner, DREAM ALLIANCE, appears to have been given the perfect Derby preparation. His slashing fourth-place finish in the second leg put the writing on the wall that he’ll appreciate the 1,800m Derby trip, while barrier 3 does suggest he’ll map softly throughout.
INVINCIBLE TYCOON can do no wrong. From eight Kranji starts, he has posted three wins and placed a further four times. He has checked in third in both legs of the 4YO Challenge so far, and only has to see out the 1,800m to be in the finish again, with all his prior winning form ranging from 1,200m to 1,400m.
SELECTIONS: 2. GOLDEN MONKEY, 1. SUPER SALUTE, 4. CAVALRY, 5. DREAM ALLIANCE & 3. INVINCIBLE TYCOON
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 2. GOLDEN MONKEY & 1. SUPER SALUTE
S1-9: Multiple – 9. SABAH ACE & 5. JANUARY
S1-9 Class 3 Handicap
SABAH ACE has been impressive by winning three of his four starts since making his race track debut in November last year. The up-and-comer, who has so far raced solely on the polytrack, resumed off a five-month break over this distance on 8 July, with his winning streak coming to an end. He was strong late into fourth, beaten just 0.7 lengths, and should be fitter now second-up. Despite the rise in class, he looks worthy of following given his untapped potential.
JANUARY returns to the races since 27 May after competing this year’s 3YO Series, which resulted in him winning the first leg, the local G3 Singapore 3yo Sprint. 1,400m is his best distance, so far, but he can sprint well fresh first-up over 1,200m and could still have plenty of improvement to come.
A very interesting runner is leading trainer Jason Ong’s proven performer SPECIAL OPS. The 6YO is first-up off a nearly 1.5-year break but has looked well in two trials ahead of his return. A versatile runner, handling both the turf and polytrack, while winning over distances from 1,200m up to 1,600m, he has what it takes to win this if fit enough.
Another 3YO in the race, PACIFIC HERO should begin fast and could potentially get a soft lead. The Michael Clements-trained youngster has one win and two second placings to his name after five Kranji starts, and did have bad luck last time when the saddle slipped for the jockey. He tries Class 3 for the first time here.
A proven track and distance performer, LIM’S CRAFT could represent good each-way value second-up from a break. The 7YO was unsuited over 1,200m on the polytrack last start as he has always been a better turf performer. He also raced wide on that occasion. On the light weight, it would come as no surprise to see him fight out the finish.
SELECTIONS: 9. SABAH ACE, 5. JANUARY, 2. SPECIAL OPS, 8. PACIFIC HERO & 10. LIM’S CRAFT
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
