 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Goodwood Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
LORD RIDDIFORD looks to have a great chance of completing a hat-trick of wins in this 1,000m race. His last two victories have both come in this contest and his trainer John Quinn has surely lined him up for it again. This will be his third start of the turf season, so he should be spot on. He is nicely weighted and the soft ground will be no problem. Conditions were very similar when he lifted this prize two years ago and his overall record at the track now stands at three wins from four visits.
RAASEL went within a neck of landing the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood 12 months ago when runner-up behind subsequent G1 winner KHAADEM. That was his only Goodwood defeat in three races. Michael Appleby’s sprinter has not had any luck in a number of Group and Listed races this season. Returned to a 1,000m handicap at Ascot last month, he was short of room when starting to throw down a strong challenge before finishing fourth behind THE BIG BOARD.
NAVELLO got up close home to win the 1,000m ‘Dash’ Handicap at Epsom on Derby Stakes Day in June. The runner-up, SILKY WILKIE, filled the same position in a York Listed race on his next start, so the form looks solid. He had a busy start to the season and he should appreciate the two-month break he’s had since his Epsom victory.
VINTAGE CLARETS has been in great form this season. He touched off LIHOU over 1,014m at Chester in June before following up in a competitive 1,000m contest on Newcastle’s tapeta track. His Ascot third over 1,000m, when he was narrowly in front of RAASEL, was just as good as his victories and it showed he is holding his form exceptionally well. The soft ground won’t bother him at all and there’s no reason why he won’t take to this unique course.
DREAM COMPOSER has only once finished out of the first three in six races at Goodwood. He’s recorded two course wins, with the latest of them coming over this 1,000m in May. James Evan’s sprinter is at his best on soft ground and he seems better than ever this season.
SELECTIONS: 15. LORD RIDDIFORD, 2. RAASEL, 12. NAVELLO, 6. VINTAGE CLARETS & 5. DREAM COMPOSER
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 15. LORD RIDDIFORD & 2. RAASEL
S1-2: Multiple – 3. ARRAY & 7. DARROCH
S1-2 2yo Maiden
Goodwood is a tricky course for an unraced two-year-old and it’s no coincidence that the last four winners of this 1,200m maiden had a previous run before they encountered these rolling Sussex Downs.
Andrew Balding’s team are in top form and ARRAY will improve plenty for his promising debut second at Newbury over 1,200m. He bumped into a more experienced previous winner when chasing home STARLUST that day and the race will have put him spot on for this.
Talented newcomers can win on debut here and Richard Hannon won this race with WATAN first time out in 2018. There have been encouraging vibes about his debutant A LA NOCHE, who is an expensive LOPE DE VEGA colt. Most of the sire’s progeny excel on soft ground, so A LA NOCHE ought to relish the easy conditions.
The in-form Eve Johnson Houghton was pleased with how well DARROCH shaped first time out at Salisbury over 1,200m. He only finished third, but the winner ALYANAABI stepped up to hit the frame in a Listed race at Ascot on Saturday. The Salisbury runner-up has also won since, so the form looks useful, and this easier ground is also a bonus for the son of TIME TEST.
Northern trainer Karl Burke is yet another enjoying a great run, and ALASKAN GOLD looks a typical sharp KODIAC colt, who will be suited by this track. Although he was beaten by a pair of above-average youngsters in VANDEEK and NEVER SO BRAVE on his debut at Nottingham over 1,216m, he will undoubtedly benefit from that experience.
John and Thady Gosden have not yet got rolling with their 2YOs, most of whom were kept back early on because the gallops at Newmarket were so dry. But since the weather broke the horses have started to thrive, and the Clarehaven youngsters have been reputed to have started to come to themselves. DORNEY LAKE is an interesting colt by ARDAD who won the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot in 2016 for the yard.
SELECTIONS: 3. ARRAY, 7. DARROCH, 1. A LA NOCHE, 8. DORNEY LAKE & 2. ALASKAN GOLD
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 3. ARRAY & 7. DARROCH
S1-3: Multiple – 11. EAGLE’S WAY & 2. PRIDE OF AMERICA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 3. ARRAY
Selections – 7. DARROCH, 1. A LA NOCHE, 8. DORNEY LAKE & 2. ALASKAN GOLD
S1-3:
Banker – 11. EAGLE’S WAY
Selections – 2. PRIDE OF AMERICA, 8. HAUNTED DREAM, 9. MILLEBOSC & 15. MOKTASAAB
S1-3 4yo+ Handicap
This is often a high-class 1,982m handicap and this year’s edition looks another good renewal.
Towards the head of the market is the Sir Mark Prescott-trained EAGLE’S WAY who comes here after finishing a narrow second in a strong contest at Yarmouth over 2,021m last Thursday. That was this son of GLENEAGLES’ first run of the season and previously he had won four consecutive races to rise through the handicap ranks. After only eight starts, he looks sure to progress again this season and, if this race doesn’t come too soon, he can be expected to go well from an unchanged handicap mark.
PRIDE OF AMERICA ran out a game winner of a valuable handicap at York when last seen. With that race one of the strongest 2,051m handicaps of the season, he is entitled to plenty of respect here despite now running off a career high mark. The ground is expected to be on the softer side of good to start the week at Goodwood and those are conditions that will suit Amy Murphy’s runner, so he must enter calculations.
HAUNTED DREAM finished third behind PRIDE OF AMERICA in the John Smith’s Cup last time. Ed Dunlop’s 4YO was always prominent throughout that contest and hit the front around 400m from home, before being worn down in the closing stages. He was beaten less than two lengths at the finish and is now slightly better off at the weights with PRIDE OF AMERICA. This downhill, sharp track should suit his prominent racing style, so he’s expected to be in the shake up once again.
MILLEBOSC was another that ran in the same 2,051m handicap at York last time and finished well behind PRIDE OF AMERICA, but better was clearly expected on his second run for the William Haggas yard as he was one of the best backed horses in the race. Things didn’t quite go to plan as he finished a never nearer seventh but there are reasons to forgive that effort considering he broke from a very wide draw in stall 20. One concern is his hold-up style of running as it can be difficult to come from a long way back at Goodwood, so he will need luck to avoid traffic problems.
MOKTASAAB finished third in this race last year off a higher handicap mark and has winning form over this trip at Goodwood too. He ran below his best at Sandown over 1,990m last time, but could bounce back at a track he goes well at.
SELECTIONS: 11. EAGLE’S WAY, 2. PRIDE OF AMERICA, 8. HAUNTED DREAM, 9. MILLEBOSC & 15. MOKTASAAB
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 11. EAGLE’S WAY & 2. PRIDE OF AMERICA
S1-4: Multiple – 2. HAATEM & 3. IBERIAN
S1-4 Vintage Stakes
Some classy horses have won the 1,409m G2 Vintage Stakes and this year’s crop look another talented bunch.
The most experienced of them is the Richard Hannon-trained HAATEM who will be having his sixth run of the campaign. The son of PHOENIX OF SPAIN finished an unlucky third over 1,203m in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom back in June and followed that with a close-up fifth to RIVER TIBER over the same trip at Royal Ascot in the G2 Coventry Stakes. He then stepped up again over this 1,400m trip when second to the highly regarded CITY OF TROY in the G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) last time. His experience combined with his ability to handle the trip, track and ground make him the one to beat.
Trainer Charlie Hills is having another good season and his IBERIAN looks the biggest danger. The son of LOPE DE VEGA has only been seen once but showed that the huge sum he fetched in the sales ring was worth it as he won a Newbury novice over 1,300m impressively. He was pulled out of the G2 Superlative Stakes over 1,400m because of the rain-softened ground, though, so the forecast showers would be a worry. However, for connections to be pitching him in against this sort of company so early in his career shows the regard he’s held in.
Richard Fahey’s GOLDEN MIND comes into the reckoning after a very good third in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m last time. Always regarded as one of the better 2YO races of the season, the son of GALILEO GOLD was a real eyecatcher as he had to wait to make his challenge, which wasn’t the case for the horses that finished first and second. The runner-up has since run well in G3 company, so GOLDEN MIND looks an intriguing contender with Frankie Dettori booked to ride.
It didn’t look the strongest of races that WITNESS STAND won on debut at Chester over 1,401m last time, but he won in the style of colt with a bright future. He is the type to slip under the radar here and can go well for his young talented trainer Tom Clover at a big price.
THUNDER BLUE looks another sure to run well, particularly as he boasts track experience. He has been consistent this season, running well on all four starts with that sole success coming here at Goodwood over 1,200m. He has only run on good-to-firm ground so far, so like some of the others, rain would be a concern.
SELECTIONS: 2. HAATEM, 3. IBERIAN, 1. GOLDEN MIND, 9. WITNESS STAND & 8. THUNDER BLUE
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. HAATEM & 3. IBERIAN
S1-5: Multiple – 4. KINROSS & 8. ISAAC SHELBY
S1-5 World Pool Lennox Stakes
The G2 World Pool Lennox Stakes over 1,409m looks like a competitive race.
KINROSS, ridden by Frankie Dettori, has run twice in this contest, winning it in 2021 on soft ground and going down by just a neck to SANDRINE 12 months ago. The winner of four G1 and G2 races last season over 1,200m and 1,400m in a variety of conditions, he undoubtedly has the strongest form of the field. He was a decent third in the G1 July Cup over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) last time which should have set up perfectly for this return to his ideal distance of 1,409m.
Brian Meehan’s promising 3YO colt ISAAC SHELBY, the winner of the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury in April, steps back down in trip for this after two subsequent G1 defeats over 1,600m this season. He is a proven performer on a variety of ground and his weight-for-age adds to his claims here, so he can be expected to improve back down to this distance.
AL SUHAIL has had five wins over 1,400m, including two at G2 level. The gelding won his first two starts over 1,400m this year in Meydan before coming third in a very close finish in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint over 1,200m, again at Meydan. On his return to the UK, he finished a respectable sixth of 16 in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m and could get back to winning form over 1,409m again.
John and Thady Gosden’s AUDIENCE returned earlier this month to win the G3 Criterion Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) by an impressive two lengths. A very consistent horse, he has only finished out of the placings in one of his eight starts. Despite stepping up in class here, he is improving, but having only run on good or good-to-firm ground, the softer conditions have to be a question mark.
3YO HOLGUIN, who has Oisin Murphy in the saddle, was last seen winning the Listed City Plate Stakes over 1,401m at Chester. Having run against older horses twice now, for a close second and a win, he has been very consistent over 1,400m this season and can run well. He performs best on softer ground, so his claims will be strongest if Goodwood gets the forecast rain.
SELECTIONS: 4. KINROSS, 8. ISAAC SHELBY, 1. AL SUHAIL, 2. AUDIENCE & 6. HOLGUIN
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 4. KINROSS & 8. ISAAC SHELBY
S1-6: Multiple – 11. EMILY DICKINSON & 3. COURAGE MON AMI
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 4. KINROSS
Selections – 8. ISAAC SHELBY, 1. AL SUHAIL, 2. AUDIENCE & 6. HOLGUIN
S1-6:
Banker – 11. EMILY DICKINSON
Selections – 3. COURAGE MON AMI, 7. LONE EAGLE, 2. COLTRANE & 9. QUICKTHORN
S1-6 Goodwood Cup
The G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,208m is the highlight of day one at the Goodwood Festival, with the established stayers of the division meeting up-and-coming prospects.
EMILY DICKINSON represents Aidan O’Brien, a trainer who has won this race three times, most recently with KYPRIOS last year. Despite her disappointment in the G3 Saval Beg Stakes over 2,800m at Leopardstown in May 2023, she got her season back on track with a promising fourth in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m at Royal Ascot. She then followed up with an easy victory earlier this month in the G2 Curragh Cup over 2,800m at Curragh on soft ground and she should be a strong contender if the forecast rain arrives.
Ahead of her in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m at Royal Ascot in June was COURAGE MON AMI who won the race under a brilliant ride from Frankie Dettori. The 4YO gelding by FRANKEL will be looking to emulate his former stablemate STRADIVARIUS by winning the G1 Gold Cup and G1 Goodwood Cup in the same season, something STRADIVARIUS did three times between 2018 and 2020.
If the rain does hit, another horse who will relish conditions will be LONE EAGLE. Ralph Beckett’s 5YO always saves his best runs for slower ground, as shown by his second at Chester in the G3 Ormonde Stakes over 2,676m in May 2023 and success in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes in May 2021. The step up in trip could also bring out some improvement.
One of the more experienced contenders in the race is COLTRANE who COURAGE MON AMI narrowly beat in aforementioned Gold Cup last month. Despite losing, that run was a career-best effort from Andrew Balding’s gelding on good to firm ground. Having finished fourth in last year’s renewal of the G1 Goodwood Cup behind KYPRIOS, STRADIVARIUS, and TRUESHAN, he has a great chance to land his first-ever G1.
Finally, one who is yet to run in a G1 contest this season is the Hughie Morrison-trained QUICKTHORN who will be ridden by Tom Marquand, the jockey that guided him to success in last year’s G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,300m at York last August. During that victory he made all and didn’t see another rival when winning by a wide margin, so if he gets another easy lead from the front, the 6YO by NATHANIEL could be hard to catch.
SELECTIONS: 11. EMILY DICKINSON, 3. COURAGE MON AMI, 7. LONE EAGLE, 2. COLTRANE & 9. QUICKTHORN
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 11. EMILY DICKINSON & 3. COURAGE MON AMI
S1-7: Multiple – 6. STORMY SEA & 10. NOVUS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 11. EMILY DICKINSON, 3. COURAGE MON AMI & 7. LONE EAGLE
S1-7: Multiple – 6. STORMY SEA, 10. NOVUS & 5. BACK SEE DAA
S1-8: Multiple – 2. KITAI, 1. FUNNY STORY & 3. BONNY ANGEL
S1-7 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 76-95 Handicap
3YOs have won all seven runnings of this 1,609m fillies’ handicap, with the weight-for-age allowance often proving advantageous at this stage of the season.
Having won a handicap over 1,600m at Newbury two starts back, BACK SEE DAA was then denied a clear run in Listed company over the same distance at Sandown. Back in handicap company, although running off a revised higher mark, the daughter of LOPE DE VEGA should be competitive once again. Her trainer, Karl Burke, is operating at an impressive strike-rate this season too.
Running off the same mark as when second over 1400m at Sandown last time out, NOVUS is one for the shortlist. The Gary Moore-trained daughter of DANDY MAN experienced traffic problems and was hitting the line stronger than anything else, so a step up to this 1,609m trip makes her of interest. She’s unbeaten in two starts on soft ground, so the potential for testing conditions holds no fears either.
STORMY SEA looks as though she’ll be even better over further in time, but Sir Michael Stoute is keeping her at this 1,609m distance for her handicap debut. Her victory over 1,593m on good ground at Haydock was impressive, quickening up well to go clear of her nearest rival by 4.3 lengths, and the third and fourth from that race have all gone onto win. She possibly set herself too big a task by trying to make all in the Listed 1,575m Michael Seely Memorial Fillies' Stakes at York when last seen, finishing a one-paced sixth, but is of interest back in handicap company.
ESPRESSOO likes to front-run which is never a bad thing at Goodwood and her mark remains unchanged after finishing second in the Listed 1,605m Pipalong Stakes. That was her first start over 1,609m, so she remains unexposed at the trip, but does have to concede weight so is vulnerable to the 3YO improvers.
William Haggas has saddled two of the last five winners of this handicap and fields GOOD GRACIOUS this year. She scored on her third start of the season on rain-softened ground over 1,594m at Ascot last time, pulling clear with consummate ease to win by three lengths. She’ll have to overcome a tricky wide draw in 17 but is certainly a horse on the up.
SELECTIONS: 6. STORMY SEA, 10. NOVUS, 5. BACK SEE DAA, 9. GOOD GRACIOUS & 3. ESPRESSOO
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 6. STORMY SEA & 10. NOVUS
S1-8: Multiple – 2. KITAI & 1. FUNNY STORY
S1-8 World Pool Fillies Handicap
A 1,200m handicap for fillies and mares closes the card and the obvious starting point is KITAI who has looked resurgent in her last two starts, winning both in the style of a progressive filly. She appears versatile in terms of trip, having won over 1,377m at Carlisle in June before making all the running to score over 1,200m at Pontefract last time. Her Carlisle run came on soft ground, so conditions will hold no fears for her, and ground slower than good may actually be to her advantage over this sharp 1,200m. She could still be ahead of her handicap mark and looks the one to beat.
FUNNY STORY drops back into a handicap after contesting the Listed Land O’Burns Fillies’ Stakes over 1,000m at Ayr last time. Ralph Beckett’s filly ran well on that occasion, when beaten 3.5 lengths into fifth, and that form has been franked with the first and third going on to place in G3 contests on their next starts, while the fourth-placed has since won a Listed race. A winner of a handicap at Nottingham over 1,216m the time before, she should be better suited by a return to this trip and will appreciate this drop in class.
BONNY ANGEL took a big hit in the handicap for a ready win at Doncaster over 1,301m in September last year, and only now looks to be showing the progression to suggest another win could be close. She wasn’t disgraced when finishing sixth in the Listed Lansdown Stakes over 1,009m at Bath on her reappearance and next time out in a Newmarket handicap over 1,200m she finished 6.5 lengths behind a horse that has gone on to become a dual G1 winner this season. She should handle soft conditions and looks primed for a big effort in these calmer waters.
Another runner that looks set to enjoy the cut in the ground is Rod Millman’s CRAZY LUCK. Two starts back she ran an excellent race on soft ground at Windsor over 1,211m, going down by only a neck at the line. While she underperformed at York over 1,200m on her last start, she remains below her last winning handicap mark and can go well returned to an easier surface.
MOTTISFONT is unexposed over this 1,200m trip, having largely been campaigned over 1,400m to 1,600m in her eight starts to date. On her first attempt at 1,200m, she shaped encouragingly to finish fourth at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,200m and could take another step forward now, with Tom Marquand a positive jockey booking.
SELECTIONS: 2. KITAI, 1. FUNNY STORY, 3. BONNY ANGEL, 9. CRAZY LUCK & 7. MOTTISFONT
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
