 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Sussex Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 3yo 0-105 Handicap
With rain about ground conditions look set to play a big part in determining the outcome of this high quality 3YO handicap over 2,401m.
WESTERTON has good form on an easy surface, finishing runner-up at Ascot over 1,993m and Doncaster over 2,039m on soft ground earlier in the season. Alan King’s runner has enjoyed a good season to date, winning once and finishing in the frame three times from his four starts. Last time out he was seen staying on strongly to finish third in a valuable handicap at Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m, suggesting a step up to this new trip was what he needed. Ryan Moore is once again in the saddle and if this extra distance brings about further improvement, he should be right there at the finish.
AMLETO is another that has shown good form on soft ground, when running out an impressive winner of a maiden at Chester over 2,064m back in May. William Haggas’ SEA THE STARS gelding appeared to get stronger the further he went in that contest and looks the sort to also appreciate this further step up in trip. He appears to have been handed a reasonable opening handicap mark and should be capable of a big run.
John and Thady Gosden’s TONY MONTANA makes his handicap debut after dominating a Newbury novice over 2,000m from the front last time out. That represented a return to form after he flopped in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot and may have been the confidence boost he needed. He showed form on good-to-soft ground on his debut at Salisbury over 1,600m, but now has to prove he can see out this extra distance on his first attempt at a trip of 2,401m.
The Johnston yard has won this race three times in the last 10 years, so Charlie Johnston’s runner STRUTH is worthy of respect. He ran a good race to finish third at Ascot over 2,392m off this mark most recently and can run another consistent race but may again find a few rivals too strong.
A winner last time out over 2,400m at Newbury, FOX JOURNEY comes into this in good form. Sir Michael Stoute’s runner looks to have found his optimum trip after disappointing when favourite for a strong handicap at Epsom over 2,015m in June, but this is a much stronger race than the Class 4 he won last time and will require more if he is to make it back-to-back wins.
SELECTIONS: 3. WESTERTON, 6. AMLETO, 4. TONY MONTANA, 2. STRUTH & 5. FOX JOURNEY
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 3. WESTERTON & 6. AMLETO
S2-2: Multiple – 13. MATILDA PICOTTE & 8. BREEGE
S2-2 Oak Tree Stakes
The G3 Oak Tree Stakes over 1,409m looks a fiercely competitive contest with 16 fillies and mares set to stand their ground.
Many of those towards the top of the market have run in races at a higher level this season, including MATILDA PICOTTE, who arguably brings the single best piece of form into this race on the back of her third in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket in May. On that occasion, she finished best of the rest behind two top-class fillies, MAWJ and TAHIYRA, while fading slightly at the finish on soft ground. She was well beaten when last seen in the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m at Haydock, when dropping back to a sprint trip, but ultimately there was no disgrace in that effort against the colts. There’s reason to believe a trip of 1,409m on soft ground at a sharp track like Goodwood may be just what she needs, and if she’s able to replicate her Guineas form, this Irish raider must go close.
BREEGE showed some smart form as a 2YO last season, including when finishing second in the G3 Prestige Fillies’ Stakes at Goodwood over 1,400m on good-to-soft ground. It’s likely John Quinn’s daughter of STARSPANGLEDBANNER needed her reappearance run in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m and she built upon that when finishing an excellent second in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. Her course form from last season is a big positive and she can be expected to go well.
Karl Burke’s FAST RESPONSE has run four very consistent races this season, all in Listed company. She produced a remarkable effort last time out at Chester in the City Plate Stakes over 1,401m, as she was nearly last turning into the short home straight but managed to weave her way through and stayed on strongly to go down by less than a length at the line. That’s an effort that needs to be upgraded and while she could encounter traffic problems if attempting similar tactics at Goodwood, another good run looks likely.
DREAM OF LOVE hasn’t quite recaptured her excellent 2YO form in three starts this season, but her most recent start in the Sandringham Stakes wasn’t a bad effort as she was hampered and ultimately beaten by 6.8 lengths at the line. If she can come on for that run and return to her form of last season, Charlie Appleby’s filly has the ability to be involved.
Completing the shortlist is the reappearing SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA, who won the G3 Prix Six Perfections over 1,400m at Deauville on a soft surface last season and has won when fresh in the past.
SELECTIONS: 13. MATILDA PICOTTE, 8. BREEGE, 2. FAST RESPONSE, 9. DREAM OF LOVE & 16. SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 13. MATILDA PICOTTE & 8. BREEGE
S2-3: Multiple – 5. KYLIAN & 3. BIG EVS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2: Banker – 13. MATILDA PICOTTE
Selections – 8. BREEGE, 2. FAST RESPONSE, 9. DREAM OF LOVE & 16. SYDNEYARMS CHELSEA
S2-3: Banker – 5. KYLIAN
Selections – 3. BIG EVS, 8. SHAGRAAN, 2. BARNWELL BOY & 1. BAHEER
S2-3 Molecomb Stakes
Richard Hannon has won the last two runnings of this downhill G3 dash over 1,000m, and the trainer is very sweet on BAHEER, who, though gelded before he ever ran, has shown enormous ability. Surprisingly beaten on his Newbury debut over 1,200m, BAHEER made no mistake over the same course and distance next time. The form is questionable, but the combination of phenomenal early pace and an explosive gear-change is ideal for this track.
KYLIAN won the Listed Dragon Stakes over 1,009m at Sandown and then came on to Goodwood to capture this G3 prize. Ryan Moore was hugely impressed when he rode KYLIAN for the first time at Sandown. Though beaten at short odds in his first two races over 1,000m, KYLIAN was maybe a slow learner. He has certainly not looked back since and, with Moore again on board, he must have major claims.
Trainer Mick Appleby describes BIG EVS as “a machine”, so he too will be in his element on this course. BIG EVS, arguably beaten by the draw first time out at Redcar over 1,000m, then proved a revelation when springing a surprise in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. He clocked a quicker time than the G2 Queen Mary Stakes winner over the same course and distance on that day, and he looks well above-average. However, he would prefer faster ground, so if Goodwood escape another drenching his chance would improve.
Clive Cox’s juveniles have been on fire this season and SHAGRAAN was not hard pressed to win his novice at Windsor over 1,211m, having shown promise on his debut at Haydock over 1,200m. Arguably, the form of SHAGRAAN’s subsequent Listed second at Newbury over 1,200m was even better. The drop in trip is a gamble as there will be a couple of equine Usain Bolts blazing the trail, but if the ground does get softer SHAGRAAN’s stamina would come into play.
The Johnstons always target this meeting, and in BARNWELL BOY the North Yorkshire stable have a definite contender. The son of STARSPANGLEDBANNER has that crucial course experience, having slammed a subsequent winner on his debut here in May. He ran much better than his final position suggests in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot, where despite a slow start, he briefly looking menacing at the 400m pole.
SELECTIONS: 5. KYLIAN, 3. BIG EVS, 8. SHAGRAAN, 2. BARNWELL BOY & 1. BAHEER
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 5. KYLIAN & 3. BIG EVS
S2-4: Multiple – 6. PADDINGTON & 4. INSPIRAL
S2-4 Sussex Stakes
The G1 Sussex Stakes over 1,609m is always one of the highlights of the week and this year’s renewal promises to be a really exciting contest.
Aidan O’Brien’s 3YO PADDINGTON has been outstanding this season, winning each of his five starts, the last three all G1s. Most recently, he won the G1 Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m at Sandown with an excellent performance when going against older horses for the first time. Taking on the elder brigade again here, his weight-for-age allowance is a real bonus. A top-class colt, the drop back to 1,609m isn’t a problem, he goes on any ground and there is no reason why he won’t continue his winning run.
John and Thady Gosden’s INSPIRAL, also a winner of three G1s, ran very well on her seasonal return at Royal Ascot to be a close second in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m. A very consistent filly, she can handle a range of conditions, is well proven over this distance and, though she comes to Goodwood for the first time here, the track should suit her. Partnered by Frankie Dettori, who has ridden her to win on five occasions, she is comfortably the biggest threat to PADDINGTON.
William Haggas, who is having a typically strong season, saddles ALDAARY. A classy handicapper as a 3YO, the son of TERRITORIES has stepped into Group company for the first time this year. He finished second in the G2 Summer Mile Stakes over 1,594m at Ascot a couple of weeks ago which showed that he is worthy of running in these top-level races. Soft ground suits him, so any further rain that falls will be a bonus, and if he can improve for his Ascot run, then he has a good chance of picking up some decent prize money.
The only French-trained runner in the race, FACTEUR CHEVAL, is an interesting contender. He has only finished outside of the placings once from 10 starts and has placed in a G3, a G2 and a G1 already this season, most recently beaten narrowly in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m at ParisLongchamp in May. Visiting the UK for the first time, he has Goodwood winners in his pedigree so should like the track and is more than capable at this level.
SELECTIONS: 6. PADDINGTON, 4. INSPIRAL, 1. ALDAARY & 3. FACTEUR CHEVAL
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 6. PADDINGTON & 4. INSPIRAL
S2-5: Multiple – 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA & 6. INDISPENSABLE
S2-5 2yo Fillies Conditions
This 1,000m 2yo Fillies Conditions event can attract top class juvenile sprinters, with last year’s winner going on to finish first and second in G1 company later that same season.
FLORA OF BERMUDA, an expensive purchase at £340,000 (around HK$3.4 million), looks an obvious starting point after a decent sixth in the G2 1,000m Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out. Her finishing position doesn’t give her full credit for the performance either, seeing as she was drawn on the far side of the track and the first five horses home were all in a group on the stands’ side. The runner-up of that race has since won a valuable sprint contest at Newbury in good style.
INDISPENSABLE, last seen finishing third in a Listed 1,000m race at Naas, has plenty going for her. She looked an unlucky loser that day, racing on the opposite side to the group where the front two came from and only losing out narrowly. That showed her ability to handle softer ground, while she also won on good over 1,000m at Ripon three starts ago.
Another who shouldn’t have a problem handling the soft conditions is TROPICAL ISLAND, who comes into this off the back of a winning debut over 1,000m at Ripon. It didn’t look the hottest of maidens, but she came through the field nicely to win eased down and looks open to further improvement. She’ll have to take a big step forward to trouble some of these more proven rivals but is one for the shortlist.
Trainer Karl Burke continues in fine form with his 2YOs this season, so HARVANNA, winner of her last two starts, has to be respected. Both of her wins have come over the 1,000m straight, including at Yarmouth last time when showing good early pace and a strong finishing kick to score by over two lengths. The only question mark with her is ground, as this will likely be the softest she’s encountered.
DAPPERLING can’t be ignored after her second in the 1,031m Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury last time out. The winner of that race is highly regarded and is expected to take on Group company next, so a repeat of that run could see her go close. She shows good early speed and tends to race prominently, which lessens the risk of a luckless run which can so often happen at Goodwood.
SELECTIONS: 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA, 6. INDISPENSABLE, 12. TROPICAL ISLAND, 5. HARVANNA & 3. DAPPERLING
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA & 6. INDISPENSABLE
S2-6: Multiple – 6. LA ISLA MUJERES & 2. SIRONA
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5: Banker – 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA
Selections – 6. INDISPENSABLE, 12. TROPICAL ISLAND, 5. HARVANNA & 3. DAPPERLING
S2-6: Banker – 6. LA ISLA MUJERES
Selections – 2. SIRONA, 5. QUEEN REGENT, 10. DECORATION & 8. VALUE ADDED
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA, 6. INDISPENSABLE & 12. TROPICAL ISLAND
S2-6: Multiple – 6. LA ISLA MUJERES, 2. SIRONA & 5. QUEEN REGENT
S2-7: Multiple – 4. URBAN SPRAWL, 8. DARK THIRTY & 5. RHOSCOLYN
S2-6 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap
The penultimate race of day two is a 1,982m handicap for fillies, a race that sees LA ISLA MUJERES attempt to land a hat-trick of wins for the in-form Ralph Beckett stable. Her first run of the season on turf saw the filly by LOPE DE VEGA comfortably win a Salisbury handicap over 1,983m. The 3YO is bred to continue her progress and she will benefit from a decent weight-for-age allowance against her older competitors.
Another 3YO who will be aided in the weights is SIRONA for Charlie Johnston and William Buick. She is out of a Listed-winning mare and, having won a Listed race over 1,500m in Koln last September on good-to-soft ground, any rain that falls will help her chances.
One that is set to have his first run on turf is QUEEN REGENT under three-time champion jockey Oisin Murphy. The John and Thady Gosden-trained 3YO has been very consistent in all three of her starts, including a win in a novice race at Newcastle over 1,605m in February. Following her second at Wolverhampton in another fillies’ novice over 1,895m earlier in July, this daughter of ROARING LION should continue to improve now stepping up in trip.
Representing prominent owners Coolmore is DECORATION for the Roger Varian team under David Egan, her regular rider this season. By FRANKEL, she picked up her first success in a maiden at Windsor over 2,000m in early July when staying on well from a prominent position. The 3YO has yet to race on ground that has been slower than good, which has to be a slight concern, but if she handles conditions she should run well.
During that success in the Windsor maiden over 2,000m, she beat fellow 3YO VALUE ADDED who is owned by HM The King & HM The Queen. Just eight days after her clash against DECORATION, she stepped down in trip for a fillies’ novice at Wolverhampton over 1,895m, winning impressively under champion jockey William Buick. A continuation of that progression should give her a good chance on her first start at Goodwood.
SELECTIONS: 6. LA ISLA MUJERES, 2. SIRONA, 5. QUEEN REGENT, 10. DECORATION & 8. VALUE ADDED
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 6. LA ISLA MUJERES & 2. SIRONA
S2-7: Multiple – 4. URBAN SPRAWL & 8. DARK THIRTY
S2-7 World Pool Handicap
Mark Johnston enjoyed great success at this meeting and it’s sure to be normal service after handing over the training licence to his son Charlie. His URBAN SPRAWL is likely to bounce back to his best form in this 1,409m handicap. He disappointed on his most recent start over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) but that race probably came too soon after his excellent third in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. He made all the running to land a decent handicap over the same course and distance in May and the return to this track should help.
Richard Hannon has a great record in this race. The Classic-winning trainer has lifted the trophy three times in the last five years and his DARK THIRTY could increase that impressive tally. He ran in Group races as a 2YO last season and, while he’s not up to that level, he has developed into a smart handicapper. The way he battled in the closing stages when making all the running over 1400m at York in May was most pleasing and he ran a cracker from the front when third in a handicap over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course). That race - won by prolific winner QUINAULT - is usually one of the hottest 3YO sprint handicaps of the season.
RHOSCOLYN struggled during the early months of the season but his second over 1,487m at Beverley last time out was a step in the right direction and it came despite missing the break when his jockey removed the blindfold late. He has come a long way down the weights since finishing a close third over 1,400m at this course 12 months ago.
His trainer David O’Meara also runs DARKNESS who was touched off by a short-head over 1,400m at this track in June. However, he put it all together to record his first victory since joining the stable from France when successfully over 1,600m at Newmarket (July Course). There’s every chance he will build on that victory.
CLASSIC, a stablemate of DARK THIRTY, seemed suited by more patient tactics when coming from off the pace to land a decent 1,400m Sandown handicap last month. His 1,400m novice win at Newmarket (July Course) last year came on soft but he is versatile regarding the ground, so he won’t be bothered by the weather.
SELECTIONS: 4. URBAN SPRAWL, 8. DARK THIRTY, 5. RHOSCOLYN, 1. DARKNESS & 11. CLASSIC
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
