Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Goodwood Racecourse – Track Analysis (Sussex Stakes Day):

Goodwood is one of the most spectacular and unique racecourses in the world. The track is right-handed with two home bends, and all races over 1400m, 1600m and 2200m enter the straight via the lower bend, whilst all other races enter via the top bend. The run in from the top bend is approximately 900m and 750m respectively, but given the nature of the turns and the downhill gradient, it is considered a sharp track, favouring those on the speed, particularly in shorter races. Horses that are held up off the pace can run into trouble, particularly those on the rail. The track has a straight course with starting points over 1000m and 1200m.

Sussex Stakes day sees seven races contested. Two of those on the straight course are the 1000m G3 Molecomb Stakes and 2yo Fillies Conditions. The low barriers are drawn on the far side with high numbers closest the grandstand rail. Over the 1000m horses with speed tend to dominate due to the downhill nature of the course, which is considered one of the fastest in the country. Horses that break slowly can find their race all over at the start. Speed horses are better suited to a low draw.

There are five races on the round course. For the 1409m G3 Oak Tree Stakes and World Pool Handicap, it is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1400m have an advantage in larger fields. For the 1982m 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap, runners have a long straight run before turning right and like most race starts on the round course, the draw is of little consequence. For the 2401m 3yo 0-105 Handicap, they start from a chute on the left hand side of the course and have a decent straight run before turning right. Like most starts on the round course, there is no draw bias and horses are afforded every opportunity.

For the feature race 1609m G1 Sussex Stakes, the field will jump from halfway up the back straight where they briefly go downhill before climbing uphill then onto the lower loop into the 750m straight. It is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1600m have an advantage in larger fields. Over the last ten years there has only been more than nine runners on one occasion in 2016, and the average field size in that time is 7.5, whilst the average winning barrier during that period is 4.6. Given the small size of the fields, the barriers have been of no consequence. Favourites have a good record in the race having been successful in five of the last ten editions. 3YOs tend to do well, having won five of the last ten renewals, and whilst horses can come from anywhere to win, not one leader has been successful in the last ten years.

Last year's Sussex Stakes was run on Good to Firm ground, with a field of seven going to post. On jumping, the Japanese contender, BATHRAT LEON was a tad awkward to break but soon took up the running, from CHINDIT in second and ORDER OF AUSTRALIA back in third, whilst both MODERN GAMES and the favourite, BAAEED, were content to sit midfield. At the half way stage, the order remained the same with the leader running them along at a solid gallop, but as they came into the straight, MODERN GAMES headed toward the inside, whilst BAAEED, who seemingly had plenty to offer, started to mount his challenge on the outside.  BATHRAT LEON, who had run a mighty race from the front, started to wilt 200m out, and both MODERN GAMES and BAAEED went by, but it was BAAEED who extended best, going on to win by 1.75 lengths from MODERN GAMES, with ALCOHOL FREE picking up the pieces late to grab third.

Over the last ten years the Sussex has been run eight times on ground with Good in the description. With very little rain forecast in the days leading up, and during the meeting, it is likely that at the very least, Good will be in the going description.

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