Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Nassau Stakes Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S3-1     3yo Handicap

 

PERFUSE, having won his first novice in a mud bath at Nottingham over 2,045m, has shown that ground conditions are immaterial to him, so he has to be on the shortlist in this 1,982m 3yo handicap. He showed he was equally effective on fast ground when winning a slowly run race at Doncaster over 2,379m, which prompted supporters to make him favourite for his first handicap King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot over 2,392m. It was a big ask but PERFUSE looked the winner when hitting the front early in the straight and was only worn down in the final 100m. He runs off the same mark here and looks a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver.

 

All KILLYBEGS WARRIOR’s three wins have been gained on the July Course at Newmarket, twice over 1,400m but producing a career-best performance over 2,000m last month. KILLYBEGS WARRIOR was highly tried early on, punching above his weight in both the G2 Dante Stakes at York over 2,051m and the G3 Hampton Court Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot. However, he came alive again back at Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m under today’s rider, Kevin Stott, and although he’ll now find the ground much softer, there was plenty of cut when he finished a good third in the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1,800m in April.

 

OBELIX proved a persistent threat to KILLYBEGS WARRIOR last time over 2,000m and was only beaten by 0.8 lengths. OBELIX ran well on the July Course the only time he encountered easy ground, so conditions won’t be a problem. However, KILLYBEGS WARRIOR is an archetypal Johnston runner in that he wears his heart on his sleeve so he might again have the edge.

 

HAVE SECRET, gelded during the winter, has run two excellent races this season. He showed when winning at Nottingham last back-end that the step up to 2,045m and softer ground was what he needed. Richard Fahey has kept HAVE SECRET fresh and following an encouraging fourth to the smart BERTINELLI in the London Gold Cup over 2,000m at Newbury, he finished fourth again in the competitive Golden Gates Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot.

 

COVERDALE, unbeaten in four races since he was gelded and stepped up to 1,955m to 2,045m races, has repeatedly defied the handicapper. He has also shown his best form on soft ground.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. PERFUSE, 1. KILLYBEGS WARRIOR, 3. OBELIX, 8. HAVE SECRET & 9. COVERDALE

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 5. PERFUSE & 1. KILLYBEGS WARRIOR
S3-2: Multiple –11. VANDEEK & 8. SKETCH

 

S3-2     Richmond Stakes

 

The G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m has a prestigious roll of honour, with the likes of MEHMAS, LAND FORCE and GOLDEN HORDE all landing the prize in recent years.

 

The training operation of Simon & Ed Crisford is yet to land this race, but they have a great chance to change that this year with VANDEEK. By HAVANA GREY, a brilliant supplier of high-class 2YOs last season, the grey colt was guided to success in a Nottingham maiden last month under Andrea Atzeni. He started the race slowly before showing a great turn of foot to win, so if he can improve his speed out of the stalls he could be hard to stop.

 

Similar to VANDEEK, Freddie and Martyn Meade’s SKETCH has only been seen on the track once when he was an impressive winner in a Newbury Novice over 1,200m in late July. Former champion jockey Oisin Murphy has been booked by connections and if this SHOWCASING colt can handle a 12-day break between runs, he could potentially be a very exciting horse.

 

One of the more experienced juveniles in the field is HALA EMARAATY for trainer Alice Haynes. Bought for a big price in June, the KODIAC colt is being stepped up in trip for the first time following two wins at 1,000m earlier in the season. Based on his pedigree and how well he stayed on during his win in a novice at Redcar over 1,000m in May, this move could spark some improvement.

 

Another highly-raced 2YO this year has been Eve Johnson Houghton’s BOBSLEIGH who is stepping back up in trip following his disappointment last time out in the Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m at Newbury. The ELZAAM son has two wins to his name already this season, most notably in the Woodcote Stakes over 1,203m at Epsom in June, so he looks set to run a solid race under Charles Bishop.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. VANDEEK, 8. SKETCH, 6. HALA EMARAATY & 4. BOBSLEIGH

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple –11. VANDEEK & 8. SKETCH
S3-3: Multiple – 6. ESPIONAGE & 1. ARTISTIC STAR

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (9 unit bets):
S3-2:   
Banker – 11. VANDEEK
Selections – 8. SKETCH, 6. HALA EMARAATY & 4. BOBSLEIGH
S3-3:   
Banker – 6. ESPIONAGE
Selections – 1. ARTISTIC STAR, 4. CHESSPIECE & 5. DESERT HERO

 

S3-3     Gordon Stakes

 

If the forecast rain arrives, conditions could turn very testing and it could be hard work for the 3YOs set to line up in the G3 Gordon Stakes over 2,401m.

 

All of ESPIONAGE’s four starts came on a testing surface. He won on his maiden on yielding-to-soft at the Curragh over 1,400m on his second start and was immediately pitched into G1 company in the Criterium International over 1,600m, run at Saint-Cloud on heavy ground. He looked like the winner at all stages bar the line, as he was just caught by a sharper rival in the last stride, losing out by a head. That seemed to suggest a step up in trip would bring about more improvement and on reappearance this season he proved that when winning a Listed race over 2,340m at Roscommon. Conditions at Goodwood should be perfect for Aidan O’Brien’s son of GALILEO and he looks set to record his first Group race success.

 

ARTISTIC STAR won his first two starts, a maiden at Nottingham over 1,668m and a competitive novice event at Sandown over 1,990m, on ground that was on the soft side of good. Stepped up to 2,405m for the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom, he came up short but then wasn’t disgraced when finishing third on fast ground in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot. The return to an easier surface should suit Ralph Beckett’s runner and, while there are still some doubts about him seeing out this trip, he brings amongst the best form into the race.

 

Simon & Ed Crisford’s runner CHESSPIECE has won twice and placed twice from four starts this season. Already a winner at 2,371m, after landing a handicap at York in May, he followed that with a good third in the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,831m at Royal Ascot. Last time out he was a game winner of the Listed Glasgow Stakes over 2,214m at Hamilton on good-to-soft ground, where he relished conditions and looked a strong stayer. That race can throw up high-class winners, and with conditions at Goodwood expected to suit he has to be respected.

 

DESERT HERO scythed through the field to win the King George V Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot last time and was given a sizable rise in the ratings for that success. William Haggas’ runner has twice won on testing ground, so conditions should be in his favour, but it remains to be seen whether he can adapt to this rise in grade on his first start in Group company.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ESPIONAGE, 1. ARTISTIC STAR, 4. CHESSPIECE & 5. DESERT HERO

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 6. ESPIONAGE & 1. ARTISTIC STAR
S3-4: Multiple – 4. BLUE ROSE CEN & 3. NASHWA

 

S3-4     Nassau Stakes

 

A small but high-quality field of fillies and mares line up for the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,982m.

 

French-trained BLUE ROSE CEN, a 3YO filly by CHURCHILL, is unbeaten in three starts in France this season, two of which were in G1 contests. She runs against older horses for the first time here, but her form is difficult to make a case against, especially on soft ground, which she is likely to get on Thursday. Her weight-for-age makes her winning claims even stronger.

 

John & Thady Gosden’s course and distance winner NASHWA seemed to have lost some of her appeal after being beaten in her first two runs this season, but she won the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket (July Course) last month by an impressive five lengths. That showed she was back to her best, but genuine soft ground would leave a question mark for last year’s winner.

 

Roger Varian’s AL HUSN visits Goodwood for the first time. Stepping up in class from her last outing, when she won a G3 over 2,038m at Newcastle by half-a-length from NASHWA, the DUBAWI filly has now won all of her three races over this distance. She has the quality to run well here, goes on any ground and looks the most likely to take third spot behind the big two.

 

ABOVE THE CURVE, a winner of the G1 Prix Saint-Alary over 2,000m as a 3YO for Joseph O’Brien, has been in good form this year, winning the G2 Prix Corrida over 2,100m and finishing third in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m. That third in the Pretty Polly Stakes came on good ground, but the majority of her form has come with some juice, so she should have no issues with the likely testing conditions. She’ll need a career best to win this, but is a pretty talented filly in her own right and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her run well here.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. BLUE ROSE CEN, 3. NASHWA, 2. AL HUSN & 1. ABOVE THE CURVE

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 4. BLUE ROSE CEN & 3. NASHWA
S3-5: Multiple – 12. GRAY’S INN & 7. LINCOLN LEGACY

 

S3-5     2yo Handicap

 

This 2yo Handicap is another competitive juvenile race over 1,409m.

 

GRAY’S INN has some solid form in the book and looks versatile in terms of going, having won on ground ranging from good-to-firm to soft. She showed a good attitude to win on soft ground over 1,401m at Chester two starts back, where she and the runner-up pulled 12 lengths clear of the field. Her fourth last time out in the Listed 1,400m Star Stakes on soft ground at Sandown was a fair effort up against a host of promising fillies, and she can go close if taking another step forward from that.

 

LINCOLN LEGACY is having just her third career start and could be kindly handicapped on her first attempt at 1,409m. She won nicely on debut over 1,200m despite puling hard in the early stages and looked like the type who’d appreciate a step up in trip. It was a similar story on her next start at Windsor, again over 1,211m, where she couldn’t quite quicken to stay with the front pair but kept on well for third.

 

The step up to 1,409m isn’t sure to suit DODDIE’S IMPACT, who won his debut over 1,003m on heavy ground in April, before finishing down the field at Newbury over 1,200m after a three-month absence. The son of PEARL SECRET, a sire who relished soft ground, switched yards from Robyn Brisland to Clive Cox between those efforts and may have needed that first start for the new stable after a lengthy mid-season break. Cox’s horses are in good form at the moment and he’ll be dangerous if seeing out this 1,409m trip.

 

MISSION TO MOON looks one of the class acts in the field and should be in the mix if handling the likely soft ground. He was last seen finishing three lengths second over 1,403m on good-to-firm at Epsom, where he appeared to be soundly out-stayed by the winner. However, having raced prominently with plenty of enthusiasm, it was no surprise to see him run out of steam in the closing stages, and he kept on well to finish second.

 

There are probably bigger stamina concerns for BALON D’OR, whose five runs to date have all come over 1,001m to 1,203m. Despite that, he’s shown his liking for a softer surface and, with some stamina dotted around in his pedigree, is worth a try at the trip.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. GRAY’S INN, 7. LINCOLN LEGACY, 3. MISSION TO MOON, 4. DODDIE’S IMPACT & 1. BALON D’OR

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 12. GRAY’S INN & 7. LINCOLN LEGACY
S3-6: Multiple – 3. SKYSAIL & 4. ISLE OF JURA

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-5:   
Banker – 12. GRAY’S INN
Selections – 7. LINCOLN LEGACY, 3. MISSION TO MOON, 4. DODDIE’S IMPACT & 1. BALON D’OR
S3-6:   
Banker – 3. SKYSAIL
Selections – 4. ISLE OF JURA, 1. GLENFINNAN, 6. SEA EAGLE & 9. MAN OF EDEN

 

S3-6     3yo 71-90 Handicap

 

Handicaps over the 1,609m trip at Goodwood are never easy puzzles to solve and this one looks no different.

 

The best place to start might be Andrew Balding’s GLENFINNAN, who could still be very well-handicapped. The son of HARRY ANGEL has only run once this year and wasn’t beaten far in a Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m where the application of a first-time hood seemed to help. The likely bad ground is an unknown, but his sire had form on a soft surface so he should be able to handle it.

 

SKYSAIL is more battle-hardened having run six times so far in his career. He was quite impressive when he won the 1,600m race over the good-to-soft ground at this course at the start of the season and perhaps the ground was a bit quick on his next run at Salisbury over 1,600m. Marcus Tregoning’s charge was better on softer ground last time at Ascot over 1,594m and should be there or thereabouts again under conditions that should suit.

 

ISLE OF JURA comes into this race on a bit of a roll having won his last two at Newbury and Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m. That win at Newmarket only came six days ago, so he runs under a penalty and, given how easily he won, he could be very dangerous.

 

MAN OF EDEN might only be a 3YO, but he’s already run 12 times in his career. Formerly trained in Ireland, the son of ZOFFANY has kept his form really well since joining the stable of Harry & Roger Charlton. There might be better handicapped horses in the line-up, but he’s likely to run another solid race again.

 

William Haggas should always be respected at these big meetings and his SEA EAGLE could be well-treated on his first try in a handicap. He won a Chelmsford maiden over 1,600m very easily when last seen in October and he’s been gelded since. SEA EAGLE should handle the likely soft ground and there’s a good chance he could prove much better than his current mark.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. SKYSAIL, 4. ISLE OF JURA, 1. GLENFINNAN, 6. SEA EAGLE & 9. MAN OF EDEN

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 3. SKYSAIL & 4. ISLE OF JURA
S3-7: Multiple – 10. ORNELLAIA & 5. GET JIGGY WITH IT

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 3. SKYSAIL, 4. ISLE OF JURA & 1. GLENFINNAN
S3-7: Multiple – 10. ORNELLAIA, 5. GET JIGGY WITH IT & 7. IMPERIAL EXPRESS
S3-8: Multiple – 2. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA, 8. ANOTHER BAAR & 4. THUNDER MOOR

 

S3-7     2yo Fillies Maiden

 

Trainer Dominic F Davis is having his best ever season and his ORNELLAIA looks to have a bright future ahead of her. She made a promising debut when third over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course) and sets a lofty standard in this 1400m fillies’ maiden. The form of that race has worked out particularly well. The winner of that race, SACRED ANGEL, went on to record an impressive victory in the G3 Princess Margaret Stakes over 1,200m at Ascot last week. The step up in distance should suit this well-bred filly and the prospect of soft ground should hold no fears judged on her pedigree.

 

GET JIGGY WITH IT made a promising debut when runner-up over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course). She wasn’t particularly well placed in rear in the early stages, but she came home well to finish runner-up behind RACE THE WIND. Charles Hills’ filly will be a lot more streetwise on this second start and she should put her experience to good use.

 

IMPERIAL EXPRESS has the pedigree to make a big impression as a 2YO and she could easily play a role in the finish on her debut. She’s a half-sister to EBRO RIVER, who won the G1 Phoenix Stakes as a juvenile, and her sire INNS OF COURT, was at his best on rain-softened ground. With Andrew Balding’s 2YOs running well, he is an interesting newcomer.

 

SHADAN JOY has shown solid form in two starts. She made the running on her debut over 1,400m at Lingfield in May and was only collared by Godolphin newcomer CINDERELLA'S DREAM in the closing stages. It was disappointing that she was beaten on her second start when runner-up over 1,487m at Beverley the following month, but she didn’t appear to like the combination of fast ground and the turning track.

 

Ollie Sangster has made a good start to his training career. He won the Listed Star Stakes with promising 2YO SHUWARI last week. He runs REALLY DARN HOT and she could easily make an impression on her debut. As her name suggests, she’s from the first crop of former champion 2YO TOO DARN HOT. The rookie stallion has made a great start to his stud career and the early signs are that his offspring handle soft ground well.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. ORNELLAIA, 5. GET JIGGY WITH IT, 7. IMPERIAL EXPRESS, 12. SHADAN JOY & 11. REALLY DARN HOT

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-7: Multiple – 10. ORNELLAIA & 5. GET JIGGY WITH IT
S3-8: Multiple – 2. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA & 8. ANOTHER BAAR

 

S3-8     World Pool Handicap

 

Only once in the last 10 runnings of this 1,000m race has the favourite obliged, showing finding the winner is never an easy task. Given the fact that the ground will likely be pretty testing, it’s probably wise to focus on horses who don’t mind it when the mud flies.

 

One of those is DEMOCRACY DILEMMA who showed earlier this year over 1,000m at Thirsk. He handles a soft surface really well. He hasn’t run badly since either and comes into this having bolted up on the polytrack at Chelmsford over 1,000m.

 

Adrian Paul Keatley is a shrewd trainer and his runners at the bigger meetings are always worth a second look. He saddles ANOTHER BAAR here and the drop back to 1,000m looks a good call. He just struggles to see out the 1,205m trip, as shown last time at Hamilton and is better judged on his exploits over this minimum trip. The son of MAYSON won on bad ground at the beginning of the season, so won’t mind the likely soft conditions.

 

George Boughey and William Buick are always a duo that should be feared and they are responsible for THUNDER MOOR. He was largely campaigned at Group and Listed level as a 2YO and while he didn’t quite really feature in those races, he’s running in much calmer waters here. The run at Yarmouth last time over 1,038m was a big step in the right direction and if he handles the ground, he’s a player.

 

JM JUNGLE has enjoyed a consistent campaign, running six times this year and only finishing out of the first three once. He won the 1,000m at Haydock last time, and faces raised handicap mark to career high, which won’t make things easy. But he looks a horse on the up.

 

DESPERATE HERO finished ahead of THUNDER MOOR last time. He’s held his form well since winning at Windsor over 1,019m in June and might just be a horse that takes a bit more time to develop. It would likely take a career best to win this, but his performance last time showed he’s in good order.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA, 8. ANOTHER BAAR, 4. THUNDER MOOR, 3. JM JUNGLE & 11. DESPERATE HERO

 

 

 

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