 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for International Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ Handicap
The pace in this 1,081m 3yo+ Handicap looks to be with the horses drawn in the low-numbered stalls on the far side of the track.
BERGERAC showed serious speed to win this race last year from a low draw and once again looks well placed in stall ten. Kevin Ryan’s 5YO gelding hasn’t been in the best form in three starts this season, but now competes off a lower mark than when winning here last season and returning for this race looks to have been the plan.
One horse that loves to come from off the pace is MONDAMMEJ and this contest could develop well for him as he should be able to track the pace from his draw in stall two. While he can be a difficult horse to win with, he has run some of his best races at York including when a close second here in May over 1,000m. He now finds himself below his last winning mark and if the splits appear at the right time, he is capable of running a big race.
Karl Burke’s KORKER is another horse that has some good York form to his name, as a winner here last season over 1,000m and then when finishing a close second in May over 1,000m. He continues to run consistently well, finishing second on his last two starts at Newcastle and Sandown and runs here off an unchanged handicap mark. While he may find a few better treated, he looks a sound bet to hit the frame at the very least.
ALLIGATOR ALLEY won three times in a row on the all-weather in December and January, shooting up the handicap as a result. He struggled off higher marks at the beginning of this season, including when finishing behind KORKER and MONDAMMEJ at York over 1,000m in May, but judging by his last two starts he looks to be working back into form. David O’Meara’s runner finished third at Doncaster and Goodwood on his last two starts and has since dropped below his last winning mark. He’s drawn around the speed in stall nine and should get a good lead into this race.
It’s well over two years since EQUILATERAL last ran in a handicap, with Charles Hills’ 8YO being campaigned highly in Group company this season. His second in the G2 Temple Stakes over 1,000m at Haydock in May shows he still retains plenty of ability and he should be capable of running well off top-weight.
SELECTIONS: 9. BERGERAC, 7. MONDAMMEJ, 2. KORKER, 8. ALLIGATOR ALLEY & 1. EQUILATERAL
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 9. BERGERAC & 7. MONDAMMEJ
S1-2: Multiple – 1. BALLYMOUNT BOY & 2. COGITATE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 9. BERGERAC
Selections – 7. MONDAMMEJ, 2. KORKER, 8. ALLIGATOR ALLEY & 1. EQUILATERAL
S1-2:
Banker – 1. BALLYMOUNT BOY
Selections – 2. COGITATE, 3. EDWARDIAN & 6. LOOSE CANNON
S1-2 Acomb Stakes
A competitive field of 2YOs comes together for the G3 Acomb Stakes over 1,400m.
Adrian Keatley’s BALLYMOUNT BOY, last seen finishing second to VANDEEK in the G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m at Goodwood, steps up in trip and down in grade for this, but has the pedigree for this distance and this is probably a weaker race. His second at Goodwood looks very solid form, with the winner emerging victorious in the G1 Prix Morny over 1,200m at Deauville and that form sets the standard.
A winner on debut over this trip at Newbury by two lengths last month, Charles Hills’ COGITATE looks a smart prospect for the trainer, who won this race in 2014 and 2018. Stepping up in grade here on a comparable track, the CHURCHILL colt should have the class to go well in Group company. Conditions should be fine and he looks another solid contender.
Aidan O’Brien has trained two winners of this race, although his last success was back in 2000, and he sends EDWARDIAN into the mix this year. The colt steps up in trip from 1,000m, having won and placed on his two outings to date, most recently winning a Naas maiden over 1,000m on yielding to soft ground by 1.3 lengths. The son of top-class sprinter NO NAY NEVER, his pedigree suggests he should be fine over 1,400m and the fact O’Brien sends him here in preference of others might be a tip in itself.
William Haggas’ LOOSE CANNON, a course and distance winner having won on debut at York in the end of July, should improve from that outing. Haggas has trained two winners of this race in the past and is having a typically successful season, while any of his runners have to be taken seriously at a meeting he loves to target. The TERRITORIES colt won his debut on good-to-soft ground, but shouldn’t have any issues with the likely quicker surface.
SELECTIONS: 1. BALLYMOUNT BOY, 2. COGITATE, 3. EDWARDIAN & 6. LOOSE CANNON
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 1. BALLYMOUNT BOY & 2. COGITATE
S1-3: Multiple – 1. GREGORY & 5. CONTINUOUS
S1-3 Great Voltigeur Stakes
A notch below the top level but won by some high-class stayers in recent years, like PYLEDRIVER and CRACKSMAN, the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes is often a hotly contested 2,400m race. Just five go to post this year, but there’s plenty of quality between them.
With three wins from as many starts and open to further improvement, GREGORY should take high order. Having won on debut at Haydock over 2,327m, the son of GOLDEN HORN maintained his unbeaten record by winning the 2,240m Listed Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood by a comfortable three lengths. He took the step into G2 company in his stride when landing the Queen’s Vase over 2,831m at Royal Ascot, showing that stamina is his strong suit. Though York is a fairly flat track, the long 900m home straight certainly tests a horse’s staying power and that will suit GREGORY.
Aidan O’Brien is represented by CONTINUOUS, who arrives here on the back of a second in the G2 2,392m King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He ran with plenty of credit, just lacking the same turn of foot as the winner KING OF STEEL that day, while he wasn’t helped by that horse coming across him. Like GREGORY, York’s stamina-testing home straight should suit and he remains fairly unexposed on only his second try at this trip.
CASTLE WAY is unbeaten from two starts in his 3YO campaign, with wins coming over 2,000m and 2,600m. His stamina remains a little unproven given the way in which the 2,600m G3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) was run, with the race turning into a sprint rather than an end-to-end gallop, but 2,400m shouldn’t be a problem. He remains a shade behind both GREGORY and CONTINUOUS on ratings but is also improving.
CANBERRA LEGEND, the lowest rated of the five runners, was last seen finishing third in the 2,398m G3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood. On that piece of form he has the beating of the other outsider in the field, ARTISTIC STAR, who finished fourth in the G3 Gordon Stakes. While CANBERRA LEGEND’s owner, trainer and jockey represent the same winning combination from 12 months ago, they hope to repeat the feat this year.
SELECTIONS: 1. GREGORY, 5. CONTINUOUS, 4. CASTLE WAY & 3. CANBERRA LEGEND
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. GREGORY & 5. CONTINUOUS
S1-4: Multiple – 3. PADDINGTON & 1. MOSTAHDAF
S1-4 International Stakes
PADDINGTON looks set to continue his dominance of this Flat season with his fifth consecutive G1 victory over this G1 International Stakes over 2,080m. Incredibly, he kicked off this year by winning a Naas handicap over 1,400m. Since then, he has landed 4 G1s, including the 1,600m Irish 2000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot and Sandown’s Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m. Three weeks ago Aidan O’Brien’s star colt sliced through the Goodwood mud to land the Sussex Stakes over 1,600m, and he will have no problem with the return to 2,080m on a faster surface. This race should cement his place as a true champion.
MOSTAHDAF is undoubtedly the biggest threat. He had a rather inconsistent profile over 2,400m last season, but the return to 2,000m worked wonders at Royal Ascot in June when he stormed clear to win the G1 1,993m Prince Of Wales’s Stakes in impressive style. He does seem at his best when given plenty of time between his races, so the two-month break since his first G1 victory is in his favour.
THE FOXES still has lots of potential. He ended his juvenile campaign with victory in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket and he confirmed his Classic credentials when taking the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m at York in May. That success thrust Andrew Balding’s 3YO right into the Derby picture but he failed to stay the 2,405m distance at Epsom. He was returned to 2,000m for the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes in Belmont Park last month and he was a little unlucky not to land that G1 prize. A slow start put him on the back foot from the off and he just found himself too far back when the sprint for home started. His fast-finishing second behind FAR BRIDGE underlined his suitability for this distance.
SELECTIONS: 3. PADDINGTON, 1. MOSTAHDAF & 4. THE FOXES
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 3. PADDINGTON & 1. MOSTAHDAF
S1-5: Multiple – 13. TRONADOR & 5. THEMAXWECAN
S1-5 3yo+ Handicap
With some well-fancied runners not being declared for this 3,280m handicap, the race certainly has a different look to it.
Gordon Elliott is more well-known for his exploits over hurdles and fences, but he looks to have a very well-handicapped horse on the Flat in the shape of TRONADOR. He’s not a bad horse over hurdles but is rated significantly lower on the Flat and these conditions look perfect for him. He was left far too much to do last time at Goodwood over 4,088m on ground that wouldn’t have suited, so much better can be expected here.
If there’s one at a big price that I can see going well, then it’s THEMAXWECAN. He hasn’t shown much this year but he finally gets the fast conditions he wants and he also seems to thrive at this time of year too. The 7YO is now close to his last winning mark and with Jamie Spencer back on board, he can go really well in this.
GRAPPA NONINO could be very well-handicapped. Dermot Weld’s charge was last seen winning a 2,800m handicap at the Curragh earlier this month. He’ll like the good ground and there aren’t many jockeys in better form at the moment than Saffie Osborne.
ROBERT JOHNSON finished ahead of TRONADOR at Goodwood last time. That was a very solid run and brings him nicely into this. He won very nicely over this course and distance the time before and is versatile when it comes to ground, so can be expected to be there or thereabouts again.
Ryan Moore is a fascinating jockey booking for ZANNDABAD. The 4YO gelding has shown little since joining the A J Martin yard but the fact Moore has been booked might be a tip itself. He’ll need to improve markedly to feature, but it’s not totally out of the question.
SELECTIONS: 13. TRONADOR, 5. THEMAXWECAN, 14. GRAPPA NONINO, 10. ROBERT JOHNSON & 2. ZANNDABAD
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 13. TRONADOR & 5. THEMAXWECAN
S1-6: Multiple – 3. DESIGNER & 6. KIMNGRACE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 13. TRONADOR
Selections – 5. THEMAXWECAN, 14. GRAPPA NONINO, 10. ROBERT JOHNSON & 2. ZANNDABAD
S1-6:
Banker – 3. DESIGNER
Selections – 6. KIMNGRACE, 8. PINAFORE, 7. PILLOW TALK & 2. LADY HAMANA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 13. TRONADOR, 5. THEMAXWECAN & 14. GRAPPA NONINO
S1-6: Multiple – 3. DESIGNER, 6. KIMNGRACE & 8. PINAFORE
S1-7: Multiple – 1. BOBSLEIGH, 3. STARLUST & 6. JUNGLE MATE
S1-6 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 0-105 Handicap
The penultimate race of the day is a heritage handicap exclusively for fillies and mares won last year by DESIGNER who reappears again 12 months on. The 4YO by PEARL SECRET has yet to win since that dominant victory, though she finished a close fifth in the Listed Rous Stakes over 1,000m on her next start at Ascot before finishing second to FAST RESPONSE in October 2022 at Doncaster over 1,003m, a horse who has significantly improved since.
A fellow York winner is Richard Hughes’ KIMNGRACE who won over the same course and distance in a handicap last October. Since that York success last year, she won the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes over 1,000m at Lingfield in February and, on that evidence, she looks to be well-weighted back at a track she enjoys with Ryan Moore on board.
One of the 3YOs in the race is PINAFORE for William Haggas and Tom Marquand. Although she is one of the younger competitors in the field, this filly by DARK ANGEL isn’t lacking experience as she has raced eight times during her career, winning three of them. She has yet to race over 1,000m across all of those starts, but she was successful at Nottingham in a 1,200m handicap last week which could see her well-handicapped in this contest.
A fellow 3YO in the race is Karl Burke-trained PILLOW TALK who will be ridden by the in-form Daniel Tudhope. Similar to plenty in here, she has a preference for York as she won over the same course and distance in the Listed Marygate Fillies' Stakes in May 2022 on just her second career start. Following two runs in the Listed Westow Stakes over 1,000m and Listed Prix Marchand D’Or over 1,200m at the start of this season, she was moved into handicap company two starts ago by trainer Karl Burke and if she can build on her third at Pontefract last month over 1,003m, she must have a good chance.
Also representing Burke in the race is LADY HAMANA who has never raced around the York before. Despite that course inexperience, she has been tried at the top level by connections ever since her victory in a novice stakes race over 1,000m at Wolverhampton in August 2022. Her standout pieces of forms include a close fifth in the G3 Cornwallis Stakes and victory in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the last 12 months, so on her first handicap start, she is unexposed off her current official rating.
SELECTIONS: 3. DESIGNER, 6. KIMNGRACE, 8. PINAFORE, 7. PILLOW TALK & 2. LADY HAMANA
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. DESIGNER & 6. KIMNGRACE
S1-7: Multiple – 1. BOBSLEIGH & 3. STARLUST
S1-7 2yo Handicap
Eve Johnson Houghton won this 1,200m 2yo handicap last season and runs the highly tried BOBSLEIGH here. The son of ELZAAM brings some of the best form into this race on the back of his sixth-place finish in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot, form that has worked out very well since. There have been excuses on his last two starts, with the trip too sharp in the Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m and then the soft ground unsuitable in the G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m at Goodwood last time. Better is expected back on a quicker surface and he could have the class to defy top-weight.
STARLUST won a maiden and novice before being pitched into a nursery handicap over 1,200m at Goodwood last time. Ralph Beckett’s runner caught the eye there travelling well and he looked the most likely winner when hitting the front inside the final 400m, but showed his inexperience and was worn down at the finish. That did show he was capable off his current handicap mark and now with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he looks set to go close once again.
JUNGLE MATE has looked a rapidly progressive horse in his three starts to date. Kevin Ryan’s runner won on debut over 1,006m at Hamilton and was then just touched off on his next two starts at Carlisle and last time in the valuable Ballyhane Stakes over 1,186m at Naas when staying on strongly to be beaten by only half-a-length. He’s shown form on a range of ground and looks to have scope from his opening handicap mark.
Richard Fahey often does well in nursery handicaps at York and has won this race twice in the last 10 years, so off a low weight, his runner ZIGGY’S QUEEN is of interest. She’s still a maiden after three starts, but on all of those occasions she has shown plenty of ability. Most recently, she stayed on well over 1,000m at Beverley to miss out by only a short head to a horse that has come out and won since. This step up to 1,200m for the first time looks sure to suit and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she ran a big race on handicap debut.
BARNWELL BOY has been disappointing on his last two starts but has had excuses as he was slowly away in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes and didn’t look to like the soft ground at Goodwood last time. If bouncing back to the form of his Goodwood 1,200m maiden win, he can be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 1. BOBSLEIGH, 3. STARLUST, 6. JUNGLE MATE, 15. ZIGGY’S QUEEN & 4. BARNWELL BOY
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