 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Yorkshire Oaks Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Lowther Stakes
The G2 Lowther Stakes over 1,200m looks a good opportunity for star juvenile filly RELIEF RALLY to record her first Group-race victory. She couldn’t have gone much closer to winning at this level when beaten a nose by American raider CRIMSON ADVOCATE in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. That was her only defeat in four career starts, having previously won easily over 1019m and 1,000m at Windsor and Salisbury. Last month, she landed the valuable Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m at Newbury despite racing on the unfavoured side of the track. There’s little doubt she is well up to this class and the step up to 1,200m for the first time should suit William Haggas’ filly.
BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND finished third, just behind RELIEF RALLY, in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was just her second start following a smooth debut win over 1,007m at Nottingham in June. She’s not been seen on the track since Royal Ascot and there’s every chance she will have improved a good amount in the meantime, while she looks certain to be suited by the extra 200m here. Her trainer, Karl Burke, has won this race twice in the last four years and he has another smart filly on his hands.
FLORA OF BERMUDA led home the unfavoured far-side group when sixth behind RELIEF RALLY in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes. That was an excellent effort from a poor draw and she showed her true colours when impressively winning her first race at the fourth attempt when successful over 1,000m at Goodwood three weeks ago. The way she powered clear in the closing stages on the soft ground suggests she will have no problem with the step up in trip.
Aidan O’Brien’s CHERRY BLOSSOM made her debut in a 1,000m Listed race at Naas and she did well to finish a close fourth behind some more experienced rivals. The way she quickened to win a 1,200m Curragh maiden by five lengths a couple of weeks ago was impressive and there should be more to come.
STAR OF MYSTERY looked potentially top class when easily landing a Listed race over 1,200m in July, so it was disappointing to see her turned over in the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes over 1,200m at the same track two weeks later. It’s too early to be writing her off, though.
SELECTIONS: 7. RELIEF RALLY, 1. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, 4. FLORA OF BERMUDA, 2. CHERRY BLOSSOM & 8. STAR OF MYSTERY
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 7. RELIEF RALLY & 1. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND
S2-2: Multiple – 6. TWILIGHT ROMANCE & 15. PERSICA
S2-2 2yo Allowance
Trainer Richard Hannon has won five of the last seven runnings of this race and his PERSICA should go close to extending his dominance of the valuable 1,200m contest. The son of NEW BAY didn’t show much on debut at Leicester over 1,400m but put the experience to good use on his next start as he bolted up to win by over three lengths at Salisbury over 1,200m. There should be lots more to come and he looks a leading player.
TWILIGHT ROMANCE returns to the scene of his only career victory. It was an impressive one, though, as he impressively shot clear to win by nearly three lengths. He was just touched off last time at Pontefract over 1,200m by the horse he beat at York, WE NEVER STOP, but he had excuses as he was trapped a little wider than ideal throughout the race. A better trip here should see him go close.
ZIGGY’S CONDOR has had just the one start, but it was an eye-catching performance at Pontefract over 1,200m. When asked the question he quickened up in the style of a nice horse and there’s surely lots more to come with that experience under his belt. The faster ground here should be no issue, so he’s another to consider in this highly competitive race.
Kevin Ryan loves a winner at York and he saddles VANTHEMAN. He didn’t run badly on debut at Haydock over 1,200m and stepped up to win nicely at Ayr last time over the same distance. The son of INVINCIBLE ARMY looked to win with a fair amount in hand that day, and he’s entitled to improve again here.
AMBUSHED is interesting on the back of his win at Newcastle over 1,200m last time. That’s because he beat BALLYMOUNT BOY, who has subsequently come out and finished second in the G2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood over 1,200m. The winner that day, VANDEEK, has since come out and won the G1 Prix Morny over 1,200m, so AMBUSHED’s form looks strong and he could go well.
SELECTIONS: 6. TWILIGHT ROMANCE, 15. PERSICA, 19. ZIGGY’S CONDOR, 18. VANTHEMAN & 7. AMBUSHED
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 6. TWILIGHT ROMANCE & 15. PERSICA
S2-3: Multiple – 5. AKHU NAJLA & 4. NORTHERN EXPRESS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 6. TWILIGHT ROMANCE
Selections – 15. PERSICA, 19. ZIGGY’S CONDOR, 18. VANTHEMAN & 7. AMBUSHED
S2-3:
Banker – 5. AKHU NAJLA
Selections – 4. NORTHERN EXPRESS, 1. BLUE FOR YOU, 2. ESCOBAR & 3. SONNY LISTON
S2-3 3yo+ Handicap
This is one of the most competitive handicaps of the entire week.
Last year’s winner, BLUE FOR YOU, is back for more and he looks to have another solid chance. David O’Meara’s 5YO is higher in the weights this time around but he absolutely loves York, with 2 wins and 2 seconds out of 5 races. The ground at Goodwood last time would have been a touch soft for him and back on a sounder surface, his chances are clear for all to see despite a poor barrier draw.
AKHU NAJLA is much more lightly raced having had just five career starts. He looked to be a colt of real quality when winning a Yarmouth maiden over 1,603m last season and while he hasn’t won since, he looks a horse who we haven’t seen the best of yet. Roger Varian’s charge was a real eye-catcher at Ascot over 1,600m last time and the quicker ground here should be in his favour.
Trainer Michael Dods has a good record at York and his NORTHERN EXPRESS is respected. He’s another who goes well at this track having won there three times, including on his penultimate start over 1,400m. His run in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,400m was another great showing, and he should go well again back up in trip.
ESCOBAR is a bit of an enigma, but he’s a very talented horse on his day. He hasn’t shown much at all this season, but that has meant he’s become dangerously well-handicapped. The son of FAMOUS NAME was narrowly denied in this race last year by BLUE FOR YOU, and that came after a run of below-par showings, so don’t rule out another big performance.
When trained by Charles Hills, SONNY LISTON was tipped to be a very good horse, so much so that he ran in the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom over 2,400m in 2022. He won on debut for Hills over 1,400m at Sandown but hasn’t won since and is now trained by Ralph Beckett. The stable change looked to have made a difference as he ran a cracker to finish second in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m at Royal Ascot on his second start. Ryan Moore rode him that day and the fact he’s back on board here makes him a tempting proposition at a likely big price.
SELECTIONS: 5. AKHU NAJLA, 4. NORTHERN EXPRESS, 1. BLUE FOR YOU, 2. ESCOBAR & 3. SONNY LISTON
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 5. AKHU NAJLA & 4. NORTHERN EXPRESS
S2-4: Multiple – 4. ROSSCARBERY & 2. FREE WIND
S2-4 Yorkshire Oaks
3YOs fillies clash with their elders in the 2,371m G1 Yorkshire Oaks, where SAVETHELASTDANCE is bidding for a third ‘Oaks’ victory. She won the 2,268m Listed Cheshire Oaks by a gobsmacking 22 lengths, which resulted in her being sent off favourite for the 2,405m G1 Epsom Oaks, but she had to settle for second that day. With some ease back in the ground, she powered home late to deny BLUESTOCKING in the 2,400m G1 Irish Oaks and, on the back of that, sets the standard here. Her best runs have come with plenty of dig in the ground, though, so the drying conditions would be a slight concern.
BLUESTOCKING had a setback and didn’t make her seasonal reappearance until late May when second in Listed company over 2,000m at Newbury. She’s progressed gradually since, finishing third in the 2,400m G2 Ribblesdale Stakes on good-to-firm ground, and then handled softer conditions when just being passed late by SAVETHELASTDANCE to finish second in the G1 Irish Oaks. On what we’ve seen so far, she’ll need to take another step forward to win this but remains open to improvement.
FREE WIND is not the biggest of fillies and didn’t enjoy heavy conditions at Goodwood in the 2800m G2 Lillie Langtry Stakes last time out. Back on a sounder surface, like that she experienced when winning the 2,051m G2 Middleton Stakes at this track, Frankie Dettori’s mount poses a threat.
Paddy Twomey-trained ROSSCARBERY was only a neck away from giving him a third in last year’s G1 Prix Jean Romanet over 2,000m. She returned this season with a comfortable win in the 2,400m G3 Munster Oaks Stakes, but was then a well-beaten fourth in the 2,000m G1 Pretty Polly Stakes. That trip looked on the sharp side for her and connections then sent her to 2,800m for the G2 Curragh Cup. She found classy stayer EMILY DICKINSON too good that day and would have preferred better ground. Back down to 2,371m and on a more suitable surface, she’s a big danger.
As a last-start winner of the G1 1,979m Nassau Stakes, AL HUSN can’t be overlooked. She’s an ultra-consistent seven wins from 10 starts but, stepping up in trip now faces her biggest challenge to date.
SELECTIONS: 4. ROSSCARBERY, 2. FREE WIND, 9. SAVETHELASTDANCE, 7. BLUESTOCKING & 1. AL HUSN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 4. ROSSCARBERY & 2. FREE WIND
S2-5: Multiple – 11. SEA THEME & 1. MORACANA
S2-5 Galtres Stakes
The Listed Galtres Stakes over 2,371m looks to be an intriguing race with plenty of improving runners standing their ground.
Note that 3YOs have won nine of the last 10 editions, so the weight-for-age allowance clearly has a big effect in this race. William Haggas’ SEA THEME has only had two starts in her career, but was placed on debut and most recently seen winning a novice race over 2,379m at Doncaster by three lengths. She should have no problems with the quicker ground at York and is capable of going well, with a weight-for-age allowance helping her chances.
MORACANA, who won the Listed Noblesse Stakes over 2,423m at Cork on her seasonal debut, has taken a step forward this year. The level track at York should suit her very well. As she goes well fresh, she should have a good chance having had nearly two months off since her last run which was a good fifth in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot over 2,392m.
Another trained by Haggas, MARKET VALUE, who is owned by HM The King and HM The Queen, steps up in trip and grade here having won a fillies’ maiden over 1,955m at Ripon by 3.5 lengths in May. Her last outing, when second in a handicap over 2,064m at Chester, was on softer ground, so better going at York could see her win again, and the extra distance should not trouble her. Her weight-for-age may help her chances and she should be in the mix.
John and Thady Gosden’s ONE EVENING looked promising last time out, when finishing second in the Listed Pontefract Castle Fillies’ Stakes over 2,405m in June. That came on good-to-firm ground, so the conditions at York should suit her and the form of that run has some substance to it.
MAKINMEDOIT, who was third in the Listed Upavon Fillies’ Stakes over 1,983m a week ago, steps back up in trip for this. She stayed on nicely that day, so the extra distance here shouldn’t hold any fears and if in the same form again, could run well at a likely decent price.
SELECTIONS: 11. SEA THEME, 1. MORACANA, 9. MARKET VALUE, 4. ONE EVENING & 2. MAKINMEDOIT
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 11. SEA THEME & 1. MORACANA
S2-6: Multiple – 1. SOLDIER’S GOLD & 5. ARAGON CASTLE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 11. SEA THEME
Selections – 1. MORACANA, 9. MARKET VALUE, 4. ONE EVENING & 2. MAKINMEDOIT
S2-6:
Banker – 1. SOLDIER’S GOLD
Selections – 5. ARAGON CASTLE, 6. EXPERT CHOICE, 13. GAMRAAN & 7. REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 11. SEA THEME, 1. MORACANA & 9. MARKET VALUE
S2-6: Multiple – 1. SOLDIER’S GOLD, 5. ARAGON CASTLE & 6. EXPERT CHOICE
S2-7: Multiple – 8. ROYAL DRESS, 18. NIGIRI & 14. NAOMI LAPAGLIA
S2-6 2yo Handicap
2yo nursery handicaps like this one are often difficult puzzles to solve with many horses running off handicap marks that underestimate their ability.
SOLDIER’S GOLD is one of the more experienced horses in this line up after five starts and has already won a handicap, when impressively scoring by over three lengths at Ascot over 1,200m. Hugo Palmer’s runner shaped as though a step up in trip would suit on that occasion, so it was no surprise to see him run over 1,400m at Goodwood in the G2 Vintage Stakes. However, he could never get into that race from the rear of the field in testing conditions, and that below par effort is worth forgiving. Although he carries top weight, he could still have scope to be better than his revised mark.
ARAGON CASTLE’s win at Epsom over 1,403m on good-to-firm ground back in July was a taking effort and form that was boosted when the runner-up came out and won impressively on handicap debut at Goodwood a few weeks ago. Considering this son of TERRITORIES beat that rival by a comfortable three lengths, there’s every chance he could be well treated on his handicap debut. He may not have been suited by the soft ground he encountered at Chester over 1,401m on his last start and this return to quicker conditions could see an improved performance.
Richard Fahey’s EXPERT CHOICE has been a model of consistency in his three starts to date, finishing second in his first two races before readily taking a Beverley 1,487m novice last time out. It’s not easy to win by such a clear margin at that tight track, so it should go down as a good performance and he could be competitively weighted on handicap debut.
Another Fahey-trained runner that has shown good form is GAMRAAN, including on his handicap debut at Goodwood over 1,400m last time. He made up a lot of late ground in testing conditions to finish a clear second on that occasion, which suggested that he was well ahead of his opening handicap mark.
Completing the selections is Tom Dascombe’s REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN, who got off the mark at the fifth attempt when winning at Epsom over 1,403m early this month and should take confidence from that first success.
SELECTIONS: 1. SOLDIER’S GOLD, 5. ARAGON CASTLE, 6. EXPERT CHOICE, 13. GAMRAAN & 7. REDNBLUE SOVEREIGN
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. SOLDIER’S GOLD & 5. ARAGON CASTLE
S2-7: Multiple – 8. ROYAL DRESS & 18. NIGIRI
S2-7 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap
The closing race on Yorkshire Oaks Day is a competitive 1,400m handicap for fillies and mares only, a race that should set up nicely for Richard Hannon’s ROYAL DRESS with Ryan Moore in the saddle. The 3YO by NIGHT OF THUNDER has been in good form this season thanks to victories at Doncaster in April over 1,200m and Haydock last month over 1,393m, and with help from the weight-for-age allowance against her older rivals, she should go well.
A fellow 3YO in the field is NIGIRI for Ralph Beckett, a trainer who has been in fantastic form over the last few weeks. The filly by LOPE DE VEGA is a bit less experienced than the previously mentioned ROYAL DRESS. However she is looking to complete a hat-trick thanks to two separate successes at Haydock over 1,393m and 1593m. Off her current weight and with familiar jockey Hector Crouch on board, she could still be well-handicapped.
Three of the first four finishers in last year’s renewal of this contest were 3YOs, so it’s understandable why horses of that age, like Richard Spencer’s NAOMI LAPAGLIA, will be fancied. The 3YO by AWTAAD won on debut at Kempton over 1,600m in November, before running in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket on her seasonal reappearance in May, where she finished down the field in 17th. Now in a weaker class of race, and on the back of a victory at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,400m last month, she has a strong chance under former champion jockey Oisin Murphy.
Making her York Racecourse debut is CANDLE OF HOPE for Richard Hughes. Owned by HM The King and HM The Queen, the filly by CABLE BAY has failed to place this season, but she ran a promising race at Royal Ascot in the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m. This easier contest could see her finish in the first four or five.
Finally, seeking four wins in a row is UNEQUAL LOVE for William Haggas. The 3YO filly by DUTCH ART has been well-fancied in all three of her previous victories, most recently at Haydock where she won on her handicap debut over 1,393m. She has shown plenty of ability on the track and looks potentially smart, so she certainly has a chance in this contest.
SELECTIONS: 8. ROYAL DRESS, 18. NIGIRI, 14. NAOMI LAPAGLIA, 9. CANDLE OF HOPE & 7. UNEQUAL LOVE
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