 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nunthorpe Stakes Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 3yo+ Handicap
The opening race of the Nunthorpe Stakes Day is a competitive 2,381m handicap with BALANCE PLAY one of the fancied runners for Ralph Beckett. The 3YO gelding by LOPE DE VEGA is seeking a hat-trick of successes having been victorious in Goodwood over 2,240m earlier in the month. He is a half-brother to KHALIDI, who placed in the 2017 G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, which suggests he could still be ahead of his current rating.
A fellow 3YO in the line-up is the John and Thady Gosden-trained INTINSO who is seeking his another victory after his debut success in a novice race at Newcastle over 1,605m in October. The colt by SIYOUNI finished a promising third over 2,392m at Ascot’s good-to-soft ground, when overtaken late on despite being ahead at the 200m pole, so a return to a faster surface could see him improve further.
One of the more experienced contenders in the field is WOOTTON’SUN for Richard Fahey. The 4YO by WOOTTON BASSETT has only made it to the winners’ enclosure in three of his last 18 outings. However, since his gelding operation in June 2022, he has improved markedly, as shown by his victory in a Haydock handicap over 2,359m two starts ago. He’s in good form and there’s nothing to suggest he can’t continue his steady improvement in this.
Seeking to break his six-race losing streak is EDUCATOR. By the Japanese sire DEEP IMPACT out of the Listed-winning mare DIPLOMA, the 4YO gelding is regally bred and trained by William Haggas, who has a great record at York. His last victory was at Newmarket in April 2022 in a 2,000m handicap, so a return to that form would give him a chance.
Finally, MARHABA THE CHAMP is a horse who has already won at York this season for Kevin Ryan having landed a handicap over 2,051m in May. The 4YO by GALILEO was given a mid-season break before his reappearance at Goodwood over 1,979m earlier this month. That run should have him race fit for this task and he has star jockey Ryan Moore on board to do the steering.
SELECTIONS: 11. BALANCE PLAY, 15. INTINSO, 2. WOOTTON’SUN, 4. EDUCATOR & 6. MARHABA THE CHAMP
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 11. BALANCE PLAY & 15. INTINSO
S3-2: Multiple – 4. COLTRANE & 1. COURAGE MON AMI
S3-2 Lonsdale Cup
Favourites have won four of the last five runnings of the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,261m.
COLTRANE will certainly be one of the market principles. Andrew Balding’s 6YO has really improved over the last couple of seasons, having won a Listed race at Sandown over 3,200m and the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m. He began this season by bolting up in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m, before running very well to finish second in the G1 Gold Cup at Ascot over 3,991m and most recently when third in the G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m. The son of MASTERCRAFTSMAN rarely runs a bad race and another big run can be expected.
COURAGE MON AMI narrowly beat COLTRANE in the aforementioned Gold Cup and while he was a touch disappointing last time in the Goodwood Cup, the slightly softer ground might have been to blame. He was impressive when taking the Gold Cup before that and back on better ground, he is another leading contender.
QUICKTHORN had both COLTRANE and COURAGE MON AMI behind him in the Goodwood Cup. He was given a fine front-running ride by Tom Marquand and is very hard to catch if he gets his own way out in front. Hughie Morrison’s charge won this race last year when similar tactics were employed, and while he’s unlikely to be afforded such luxuries here, he’s clearly in great form.
GIAVELLOTTO was fifth to QUICKTHORN last time at Goodwood, but looked good the time before when he won the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m at this track. That continued a perfect record on good-to-firm ground having also won a handicap over 2,800m on a fast surface at Newmarket (July Course) last year. He needs to prove he stays this distance, but he’ll very much have conditions in his favour.
Aidan O’Brien won this race for the first and only time in 2007 with SEPTIMUS and he’ll be hoping BROOME can follow suit in 2023. The son of AUSTRALIA had been campaigned over shorter distances throughout his career, but showed the 3,200m distance was to his liking when winning the G2 Dubai Gold Cup in March. He was third to GIAVELLOTTO in the G2 Yorkshire Cup Stakes the time after that and, although he hasn’t featured on his last two starts, he’s dangerous to dismiss if back on song.
SELECTIONS: 4. COLTRANE, 1. COURAGE MON AMI, 2. QUICKTHORN, 5. GIAVELLOTTO & 3. BROOME
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 4. COLTRANE & 1. COURAGE MON AMI
S3-3: Multiple – 8. KYLIAN & 6. JOHANNES BRAHMS
S3-3 Gimcrack Stakes
Karl Burke has been the trainer to follow with 2YOs this year, and is represented in the 1200m G2 Gimcrack Stakes by KYLIAN. Unlucky in the 1,000m G3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood last time out, he’s an exciting proposition at 1,200m for the first time. He was staying on well in that race but couldn’t find any room up the stands’ side rail to go through with his challenge. To provide extra assurance on the question of stamina, the dam was a winner over 1,200 and 1,400m.
JOHANNES BRAHMS having run with plenty of credit to finish second in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot, won his maiden over 1,186m and the step back up in trip should suit. No horse was finishing as strongly as he was at Ascot but he just lacked that early zip and will be more effective over 1200m.
Richard Hannon has saddled two of the last four winners of this contest and this year fields HAATEM. With six runs under his belt, he’s the most experienced runner in the field and his form is rock-solid. He was slowly away over 1,203m at Epsom back in June, which scuppered his chances of winning, but did run on well to take third, while his other start at this distance saw him finish fifth in a red-hot renewal of the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He’s stepped up to 1,400m for his last two starts, finishing second in the G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket (July Course) and then winning the G2 Vintage Stakes. This 1,200m trip may be on the sharp side for him now, but he should be in the frame.
ACTION POINT bounced back from a disappointing run in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m, where he lost a shoe, to win in good style over 1,200m at Newbury last time out. He’s highly regarded by the yard and could challenge if taking another step forward.
Having beaten KYLIAN on debut over 1,000m at Carlisle, EMPEROR’S SON has to be on the shortlist too. His second start, in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m, where he could only finish 12th, may have come too soon for him and it is worth giving him another chance.
SELECTIONS: 8. KYLIAN, 6. JOHANNES BRAHMS, 1. HAATEM, 2. ACTION POINT & 3. EMPEROR’S SON
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 8. KYLIAN & 6. JOHANNES BRAHMS
S3-4: Multiple – 10. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 8. BRADSELL
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-3:
Banker – 8. KYLIAN
Selections – 6. JOHANNES BRAHMS, 1. HAATEM, 2. ACTION POINT & 3. EMPEROR’S SON
S3-4:
Banker – 10. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS
Selections – 8. BRADSELL, 16. BIG EVS, 2. KHAADEM & 14. DRAMATISED
S3-4 Nunthorpe Stakes
The G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m looks really competitive this year with plenty of strength in depth.
The highest-rated mare in the race, HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, who won this race 12 months ago, has had another very good season. Last time out, she won the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood by three lengths and has placed in all her earlier starts this season. She will like the ground and has won at York twice before, so has to be the one to beat.
Archie Watson’s BRADSELL, who beat HIGHFIELD PRINCESS by a length in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot in June when stepping down to 1,000m for the first time, won at York on his debut last season by nine lengths. Now a G1 winner, he is the highest-rated in the field and looks a worth challenger to HIGHFIELD PRINCESS.
BIG EVS, the only 2YO in the field, has improved for each of his races this season. He won the G3 Molecomb Stakes over 1,000m on soft ground at Goodwood last time out, after winning the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot by three lengths in June and may take another step forward on the likely better ground at York. Going up against older horses for the first time, he will find this harder, but he carries much less weight than his older rivals for being a 2YO and can be competitive.
KHAADEM, who was fourth in this race last year, won his first G1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot in June. Fifth next time on unfavourable ground in the G1 July Cup over 1,200m at Newmarket (July Course), he can go well back on the likely firmer ground at York. Having won the 1,000m in the G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood last year, he has the speed for the shorter trip.
DRAMATISED, who won the G2 Temple Stakes over 1,000m at Haydock in May, could bounce back from a disappointing run from a bad draw and on unsuitable ground in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes. She likes fast ground and if back on song, Karl Burke’s filly wouldn’t be without a chance. It would take a career best to win this, though.
SELECTIONS: 10. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, 8. BRADSELL, 16. BIG EVS, 2. KHAADEM & 14. DRAMATISED
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 10. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 8. BRADSELL
S3-5: Multiple – 7. ROWAYEH & 5. LAN CINNTE
S3-5 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 0-105 Handicap
ROWAYEH should appreciate the step up to 2,061m for the first time in this fillies’ handicap. She wore a hood on her first three starts, including when landing a Beverley fillies’ maiden over 1,691m in May. Taking the headgear off helped her improve to make a winning handicap debut over 1,600m at Sandown the following month. The form of that race could not have worked out much better, with the runner-up, MYSTIC PEARL, winning a Listed race and finishing third in a French G3. Her Goodwood third in a strong 1,600m handicap just over three weeks ago was another smart effort and the faster ground she faces here will suit her better.
Irish raider LAN CINNTE did well to win over 1,712m at Galway three weeks ago. She was squeezed out at the start and was forced to challenge from further back than ideal. The runner-up, MALBAY MADNESS, went on to win later at Galway and the form looks good for the grade. The bigger field and likely strong pace should play to her strengths.
AMANZOE hasn’t been seen since finishing runner-up in this race 12 months ago. The form worked out well with the winner, STATE OCCASION, winning at Listed level this season. That effort came on the back of a hat-trick of wins and, although she has clearly had problems this year, she remains a smart prospect. With William Haggas doing the training, there should be no worries about her fitness on this first run for a year.
It was no surprise to see SISYPHUS STRENGTH drop right out when tailed off in the 2,392m King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot as she went way too fast when setting the early pace. She was ridden with more restraint when pulling clear in the closing stages to record her first handicap victory at Newmarket (July Course) over 2,000m. Earlier in the season, Andrew Balding ran her in Listed races, so she is clearly well regarded.
CHELSEA GREEN was well backed for the Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot following a smooth victory in a Newmarket handicap over 1,600m on her return to action. Her low draw on the unfavoured far side of the track contributed to her below-par effort and she bounced back to form when third in a French Listed race over 2,000m at Vichy last month. She is open to more progress.
SELECTIONS: 7. ROWAYEH, 5. LAN CINNTE, 1. AMANZOE, 3. SISYPHUS STRENGTH & 4. CHELSEA GREEN
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 7. ROWAYEH & 5. LAN CINNTE
S3-6: Multiple – 2. BATTLE CRY & 7. KINGS VALLEY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S3-5:
Banker – 7. ROWAYEH
Selections – 5. LAN CINNTE, 1. AMANZOE, 3. SISYPHUS STRENGTH & 4. CHELSEA GREEN
S3-6:
Banker – 2. BATTLE CRY
Selections – 7. KINGS VALLEY, 13. UNDER THE SUN & 9. SISYPHEAN
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 7. ROWAYEH, 5. LAN CINNTE & 1. AMANZOE
S3-6: Multiple – 2. BATTLE CRY, 7. KINGS VALLEY & 13. UNDER THE SUN
S3-7: Multiple – 5. SILVER SWORD, 6. ENGLISH OAK & 8. GLENFINNAN
S3-6 2yo Maiden
This 1400m contest is Britain’s one of the most valuable maiden and it’s often won by a smart 2YO.
BATTLE CRY should put his experience to good use to land this 2yo Maiden. Aidan O’Brien’s colt fits the bill. He found 1,149m too sharp on his debut at Navan and enjoyed the step up to 1,400m when runner-up at Down Royal last month. His dam won over 2,800m, so it was no surprise to see him go from the front that day. Those tactics could easily pay off as York suits pacesetters.
KINGS VALLEY made a promising debut when third – first home of the unraced horses – behind ARABIAN CROWN over 1,400m at Sandown. The winner went on to land a Salisbury Listed race on his next start, so it was an excellent effort to be beaten just three lengths. The soft ground would also have been against KINGS VALLEY. He’s bred to be smart, his dam family found the G1 winner CRYSTAL OCEAN and should take a good step forward for his debut run. His trainer, Ollie Sangster, is enjoying an excellent first season.
UNDER THE SUN was no match for the useful ANCIENT WISDOM on his debut over 1,393m at Haydock in June. He’d clearly learned a lot from that first run as he put in a vastly improved performance when beaten a neck by subsequent Listed race runner-up AL MUSMAK over 1,400m in an Ascot novice contest. The first two home were well clear of the third-placed horse and the form looks good.
SISYPHEAN makes his debut. Unraced horses have won this race twice in the last nine years and Kevin Ryan’s youngster has the pedigree to make an impact. He’s by super stallion DUBAWI and his full sister ESPIONNE was successful on her debut.
SELECTIONS: 2. BATTLE CRY, 7. KINGS VALLEY, 13. UNDER THE SUN & 9. SISYPHEAN
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 2. BATTLE CRY & 7. KINGS VALLEY
S3-7: Multiple – 5. SILVER SWORD & 6. ENGLISH OAK
S3-7 3yo 0-105 Handicap
This 1,582m 3yo 0-105 handicap has been won by some top-class horses in the past and the winner is likely to prove to be of Group class in time.
SILVER SWORD has been flying the flag for the Dylan Cunha yard this season and has shown himself to be capable of competing at a high level. He finished second behind a progressive rival in a competitive 2,015m handicap at Epsom in June, and then won impressively in a 1,605m handicap at Pontefract . Quick ground conditions should be ideal for this gelding, as his stamina was stretched over 1,979m on soft ground at Goodwood last time, and he still looks competitively handicapped.
Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking aboard ENGLISH OAK for the Ed Walker yard. The son of WOOTTON BASSETT has shown progressive form in three starts to date, winning on his second start at Thirsk over 1,598m before placed at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m last time. While he will need to take another significant step forward now entering handicap company, he looks to be heading in the right direction.
Things haven’t gone to plan in two handicap starts this season for GLENFINNAN, but he looks well treated on the strength of his 2YO form, including when a close second at York last season in a maiden over 1,400m that is always a strong race. It’s still far too early to give up on Andrew Balding’s colt and a return to his form of last season would see him go close.
The Roger Varian-trained ENFJAAR has already had a taste of racing in pattern class. He found the G3 Jersey Stakes over 1,400m too tough when last seen in June, but before that had won a Chelmsford novice over 1,600m in the style of a good horse, defying a penalty for his earlier maiden success. He clearly possesses plenty of ability and it could be worth forgiving his poor run last time.
DEAR MY FRIEND has been highly tried in Group races this season over longer trips. He won a Listed race over 1,605m at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance, the drop in class make him of interest on handicap debut.
SELECTIONS: 5. SILVER SWORD, 6. ENGLISH OAK, 8. GLENFINNAN, 4. ENFJAAR & 2. DEAR MY FRIEND
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